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We report Bayesian inference of the mass, radius and hot X-ray emitting region properties - using data from the Neutron Star Interior Composition ExploreR (NICER) - for the brightest rotation-powered millisecond X-ray pulsar PSR J0437$\unicode{x2013}$4715. Our modeling is conditional on informative tight priors on mass, distance and binary inclination obtained from radio pulsar timing using the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA) (Reardon et al. 2024), and we use NICER background models to constrain the non-source background, cross-checking with data from XMM-Newton. We assume two distinct hot emitting regions, and various parameterized hot region geometries that are defined in terms of overlapping circles; while simplified, these capture many of the possibilities suggested by detailed modeling of return current heating. For the preferred model identified by our analysis we infer a mass of $M = 1.418 \pm 0.037$ M$_\odot$ (largely informed by the PPTA mass prior) and an equatorial radius of $R = 11.36^{+0.95}_{-0.63}$ km, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the 16% and 84% quantiles. This radius favors softer dense matter equations of state and is highly consistent with constraints derived from gravitational wave measurements of neutron star binary mergers. The hot regions are inferred to be non-antipodal, and hence inconsistent with a pure centered dipole magnetic field., Comment: 27 pages, 16 figures, + appendices. Accepted in ApJL. Data files and reproduction package available in Zenodo

We report an updated analysis of the radius, mass, and heated surface regions of the massive pulsar PSR J0740+6620 using Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) data from 2018 September 21 to 2022 April 21, a substantial increase in data set size compared to previous analyses. Using a tight mass prior from radio timing measurements and jointly modeling the new NICER data with XMM-Newton data, the inferred equatorial radius and gravitational mass are $12.49_{-0.88}^{+1.28}$ km and $2.073_{-0.069}^{+0.069}$ $M_\odot$ respectively, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the $16\,\%$ and $84\,\%$ quantiles, with an estimated systematic error $\lesssim 0.1$ km. This result was obtained using the best computationally feasible sampler settings providing a strong radius lower limit but a slightly more uncertain radius upper limit. The inferred radius interval is also close to the $R=12.76_{-1.02}^{+1.49}$ km obtained by Dittmann et al., when they require the radius to be less than $16$ km as we do. The results continue to disfavor very soft equations of state for dense matter, with $R<11.15$ km for this high-mass pulsar excluded at the $95\,\%$ probability. The results do not depend significantly on the assumed cross-calibration uncertainty between NICER and XMM-Newton. Using simulated data that resemble the actual observations, we also show that our pipeline is capable of recovering parameters for the inferred models reported in this paper., Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures (2 of which are figure sets), 2 tables, published in ApJ

In 2019 the NICER collaboration published the first mass and radius inferred for PSR J0030+0451, thanks to NICER observations, and consequent constraints on the equation of state characterising dense matter. Two independent analyses found a mass of $\sim 1.3-1.4\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$ and a radius of $\sim 13\,$km. They also both found that the hot spots were all located on the same hemisphere, opposite to the observer, and that at least one of them had a significantly elongated shape. Here we reanalyse, in greater detail, the same NICER data set, incorporating the effects of an updated NICER response matrix and using an upgraded analysis framework. We expand the adopted models and jointly analyse also XMM-Newton data, which enables us to better constrain the fraction of observed counts coming from PSR J0030+0451. Adopting the same models used in previous publications, we find consistent results, although with more stringent inference requirements. We also find a multi-modal structure in the posterior surface. This becomes crucial when XMM-Newton data is accounted for. Including the corresponding constraints disfavors the main solutions found previously, in favor of the new and more complex models. These have inferred masses and radii of $\sim [1.4 \mathrm{M_\odot}, 11.5$ km] and $\sim [1.7 \mathrm{M_\odot}, 14.5$ km], depending on the assumed model. They display configurations that do not require the two hot spots generating the observed X-rays to be on the same hemisphere, nor to show very elongated features, and point instead to the presence of temperature gradients and the need to account for them., Comment: 35 pages, 11 figures, 7 tables

In the last few years, the NICER collaboration has provided mass and radius inferences, via pulse profile modeling, for two pulsars: PSR J0030+0451 and PSR J0740+6620. Given the importance of these results for constraining the equation of state of dense nuclear matter, it is crucial to validate them and test their robustness. We therefore explore the reliability of these results and their sensitivity to analysis settings and random processes, including noise, focusing on the specific case of PSR J0030+0451. We use X-PSI, one of the two main analysis pipelines currently employed by the NICER collaboration for mass and radius inferences. With synthetic data that mimic the PSR J0030+0451 NICER data set, we evaluate the recovery performances of X-PSI under conditions never tested before, including complex modeling of the thermally emitting neutron star surface. For the test cases explored, our results suggest that X-PSI is capable of recovering the true mass and radius within reasonable credible intervals. This work also reveals the main vulnerabilities of the analysis: a significant dependence on noise and the presence of multi-modal structure in the posterior surface. Noise particularly impacts our sensitivity to the analysis settings and widths of the posterior distributions. The multi-modal structure in the posterior suggests that biases could be present if the analysis is unable to exhaustively explore the parameter space. Convergence testing, to ensure an adequate coverage of the parameter space and a suitable representation of the posterior distribution, is one possible solution to these challenges., Comment: 27 pages, 13 figures

We report a revised analysis for the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620, studied previously with joint fits to NICER and XMM-Newton data by Riley et al. (2021) and Miller et al. (2021). We perform a similar Bayesian estimation for the pulse-profile model parameters, except that instead of fitting simultaneously the XMM-Newton data, we use the best available NICER background estimates to constrain the number of photons detected from the source. This approach eliminates any potential issues in the cross-calibration between these two instruments, providing thus an independent check of the robustness of the analysis. The obtained neutron star parameter constraints are compatible with the already published results, with a slight dependence on how conservative the imposed background limits are. A tighter lower limit causes the inferred radius to increase, and a tighter upper limit causes it to decrease. We also extend the study of the inferred emission geometry to examine the degree of deviation from antipodality of the hot regions. We show that there is a significant offset to an antipodal spot configuration, mainly due to the non-half-cycle azimuthal separation of the two emitting spots. The offset angle from the antipode is inferred to be above 25 degrees with 84% probability. This seems to exclude a centered-dipolar magnetic field in PSR J0740+6620., Comment: 29 pages, 18 figures (10 of which are figure sets), 1 animation, 10 tables. Published in ApJ

We report on Bayesian estimation of the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740$+$6620, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray Timing Instrument (NICER XTI) event data. We condition on informative pulsar mass, distance, and orbital inclination priors derived from the joint NANOGrav and CHIME/Pulsar wideband radio timing measurements of arXiv:2104.00880. We use XMM European Photon Imaging Camera spectroscopic event data to inform our X-ray likelihood function. The prior support of the pulsar radius is truncated at 16 km to ensure coverage of current dense matter models. We assume conservative priors on instrument calibration uncertainty. We constrain the equatorial radius and mass of PSR J0740$+$6620 to be $12.39_{-0.98}^{+1.30}$ km and $2.072_{-0.066}^{+0.067}$ M$_{\odot}$ respectively, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the 16% and 84% quantiles, conditional on surface hot regions that are non-overlapping spherical caps of fully-ionized hydrogen atmosphere with uniform effective temperature; a posteriori, the temperature is $\log_{10}(T$ [K]$)=5.99_{-0.06}^{+0.05}$ for each hot region. All software for the X-ray modeling framework is open-source and all data, model, and sample information is publicly available, including analysis notebooks and model modules in the Python language. Our marginal likelihood function of mass and equatorial radius is proportional to the marginal joint posterior density of those parameters (within the prior support) and can thus be computed from the posterior samples., Comment: 40 pages, 16 figures (3 of which are figure sets), 1 animation, 2 tables. ApJL accepted version. Software: https://github.com/ThomasEdwardRiley/xpsi. Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4697624. (v1 = submitted version; v2 = accepted version; v3 = metadata edits)

We describe the X-ray pulse profile models we use, and how we use them, to analyze Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) observations of rotation-powered millisecond pulsars to obtain information about the mass-radius relation of neutron stars and the equation of state of the dense matter in their cores. Here we detail our modeling of the observed profile of PSR J0030+0451 that we analyzed in Miller et al. (2019) and Riley et al. (2019) and describe a cross-verification of computations of the pulse profiles of a star with R/M 3, in case stars this compact need to be considered in future analyses. We also present our early cross-verification efforts of the parameter estimation procedures used by Miller et al. (2019) and Riley et al. (2019) by analyzing two distinct synthetic data sets. Both codes yielded credible regions in the mass-radius plane that are statistically consistent with one another and both gave posterior distributions for model parameter values consistent with the values that were used to generate the data. We also summarize the additional tests of the parameter estimation procedure of Miller et al. (2019) that used synthetic pulse profiles and the NICER pulse profile of PSR J0030+0451. We then illustrate how the precision of mass and radius estimates depends on the pulsar's spin rate and the size of its hot spot by analyzing four different synthetic pulse profiles. Finally, we assess possible sources of systematic error in these estimates made using this technique, some of which may warrant further investigation., Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures; submitted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters

Recent modeling of NICER observations of thermal X-ray pulsations from the surface of the isolated millisecond pulsar PSR J0030+0451 suggests that the hot emitting regions on the pulsar's surface are far from antipodal, which is at odds with the classical assumption that the magnetic field in the pulsar magnetosphere is predominantly that of a centered dipole. Here, we review these results and examine previous attempts to constrain the magnetospheric configuration of PSR J0030+0451. To the best of our knowledge, there is in fact no direct observational evidence that PSR J0030+0451's magnetic field is a centered dipole. Developing models of physically motivated, non-canonical magnetic field configurations and the currents that they can support poses a challenging task. However, such models may have profound implications for many aspects of pulsar research, including pulsar braking, estimates of birth velocities, and interpretations of multi-wavelength magnetospheric emission., Comment: Appears in ApJ Letters Focus Issue on NICER Constraints on the Dense Matter Equation of State

We describe the model of surface emission from a rapidly rotating neutron star that is applied to Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray data of millisecond pulsars in order to statistically constrain the neutron star mass-radius relation and dense matter equation of state. To ensure that the associated calculations are both accurate and precise, we conduct an extensive suite of verification tests between our numerical codes for both the Schwarzschild + Doppler and Oblate Schwarzschild approximations, and compare both approximations against exact numerical calculations. We find superb agreement between the code outputs, as well as in comparison against a set of analytical and semi-analytical calculations, which combined with their speed, demonstrates that the codes are well-suited for large-scale statistical sampling applications. A set of verified, high-precision reference synthetic pulse profiles is provided to the community to facilitate testing of other independently developed codes., Comment: 31 pages, 14 figures; accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters

We present the set of deep Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) X-ray timing observations of the nearby rotation-powered millisecond pulsars PSRs J0437-4715, J0030+0451, J1231-1411, and J2124-3358, selected as targets for constraining the mass-radius relation of neutron stars and the dense matter equation of state via modeling of their pulsed thermal X-ray emission. We describe the instrument, observations, and data processing/reduction procedures, as well as the series of investigations conducted to ensure that the properties of the data sets are suitable for parameter estimation analyses to produce reliable constraints on the neutron star mass-radius relation and the dense matter equation of state. We find that the long-term timing and flux behavior and the Fourier-domain properties of the event data do not exhibit any anomalies that could adversely affect the intended measurements. From phase-selected spectroscopy, we find that emission from the individual pulse peaks is well described by a single-temperature hydrogen atmosphere spectrum, with the exception of PSR J0437-4715, for which multiple temperatures are required., Comment: 28 pages, 9 figures; accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters

We report on Bayesian parameter estimation of the mass and equatorial radius of the millisecond pulsar PSR J0030$+$0451, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) X-ray spectral-timing event data. We perform relativistic ray-tracing of thermal emission from hot regions of the pulsar's surface. We assume two distinct hot regions based on two clear pulsed components in the phase-folded pulse-profile data; we explore a number of forms (morphologies and topologies) for each hot region, inferring their parameters in addition to the stellar mass and radius. For the family of models considered, the evidence (prior predictive probability of the data) strongly favors a model that permits both hot regions to be located in the same rotational hemisphere. Models wherein both hot regions are assumed to be simply-connected circular single-temperature spots, in particular those where the spots are assumed to be reflection-symmetric with respect to the stellar origin, are strongly disfavored. For the inferred configuration, one hot region subtends an angular extent of only a few degrees (in spherical coordinates with origin at the stellar center) and we are insensitive to other structural details; the second hot region is far more azimuthally extended in the form of a narrow arc, thus requiring a larger number of parameters to describe. The inferred mass $M$ and equatorial radius $R_\mathrm{eq}$ are, respectively, $1.34_{-0.16}^{+0.15}$ M$_{\odot}$ and $12.71_{-1.19}^{+1.14}$ km, whilst the compactness $GM/R_\mathrm{eq}c^2 = 0.156_{-0.010}^{+0.008}$ is more tightly constrained; the credible interval bounds reported here are approximately the $16\%$ and $84\%$ quantiles in marginal posterior mass., Comment: Appears in ApJ Letters Focus Issue on NICER Constraints on the Dense Matter Equation of State; 76 pages, 24 figures, 7 tables, 8 figure sets (available in the online journal or from the authors)

We present the Spectroscopic Time-Resolving Observatory for Broadband Energy X-rays (STROBE-X), a probe-class mission concept selected for study by NASA. It combines huge collecting area, high throughput, broad energy coverage, and excellent spectral and temporal resolution in a single facility. STROBE-X offers an enormous increase in sensitivity for X-ray spectral timing, extending these techniques to extragalactic targets for the first time. It is also an agile mission capable of rapid response to transient events, making it an essential X-ray partner facility in the era of time-domain, multi-wavelength, and multi-messenger astronomy. Optimized for study of the most extreme conditions found in the Universe, its key science objectives include: (1) Robustly measuring mass and spin and mapping inner accretion flows across the black hole mass spectrum, from compact stars to intermediate-mass objects to active galactic nuclei. (2) Mapping out the full mass-radius relation of neutron stars using an ensemble of nearly two dozen rotation-powered pulsars and accreting neutron stars, and hence measuring the equation of state for ultradense matter over a much wider range of densities than explored by NICER. (3) Identifying and studying X-ray counterparts (in the post-Swift era) for multiwavelength and multi-messenger transients in the dynamic sky through cross-correlation with gravitational wave interferometers, neutrino observatories, and high-cadence time-domain surveys in other electromagnetic bands. (4) Continuously surveying the dynamic X-ray sky with a large duty cycle and high time resolution to characterize the behavior of X-ray sources over an unprecedentedly vast range of time scales. STROBE-X's formidable capabilities will also enable a broad portfolio of additional science., Comment: 50 pages, Probe class mission concept study report submitted to NASA for Astro2020 Decadal Survey

In this White Paper we present the potential of the Enhanced X-ray Timing and Polarimetry (eXTP) mission for determining the nature of dense matter; neutron star cores host an extreme density regime which cannot be replicated in a terrestrial laboratory. The tightest statistical constraints on the dense matter equation of state will come from pulse profile modelling of accretion-powered pulsars, burst oscillation sources, and rotation-powered pulsars. Additional constraints will derive from spin measurements, burst spectra, and properties of the accretion flows in the vicinity of the neutron star. Under development by an international Consortium led by the Institute of High Energy Physics of the Chinese Academy of Science, the eXTP mission is expected to be launched in the mid 2020s., Comment: Accepted for publication on Sci. China Phys. Mech. Astron. (2019)

Constraining the equation of state of cold dense matter in compact stars is a major science goal for observing programmes being conducted using X-ray, radio, and gravitational wave telescopes. We discuss Bayesian hierarchical inference of parametrised dense matter equations of state. In particular we generalise and examine two inference paradigms from the literature: (i) direct posterior equation of state parameter estimation, conditioned on observations of a set of rotating compact stars; and (ii) indirect parameter estimation, via transformation of an intermediary joint posterior distribution of exterior spacetime parameters (such as gravitational masses and coordinate equatorial radii). We conclude that the former paradigm is not only tractable for large-scale analyses, but is principled and flexible from a Bayesian perspective whilst the latter paradigm is not. The thematic problem of Bayesian prior definition emerges as the crux of the difference between these paradigms. The second paradigm should in general only be considered as an ill-defined approach to the problem of utilising archival posterior constraints on exterior spacetime parameters; we advocate for an alternative approach whereby such information is repurposed as an approximative likelihood function. We also discuss why conditioning on a piecewise-polytropic equation of state model - currently standard in the field of dense matter study - can easily violate conditions required for transformation of a probability density distribution between spaces of exterior (spacetime) and interior (source matter) parameters., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS, 43 pages, 7 figures