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The countries sharing the Niger River suffer from poor access to clean water and energy as well as food insecurity. The Niger River Basin Authority is tasked with advancing progress in all these areas while also reducing environmental degradation. To help the basin authority and its investors prioritize portfolio activities that support multiple securities of interest, we developed a mixed-methods approach that engaged basin countries in qualitatively ranking projects to meet energy, environmental and food security goals, complemented by quantitative modelling for the more complex ranking of water and environmental sustainability goals, necessitated by complex upstream–downstream linkages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt's power sector and identifies prospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon development issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt's energy policy goals as reflected in Egypt's Vision 2030 , and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewable energy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions' mitigation toward low-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation. The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly natural gas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversification changing with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase the effects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price, and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for power generation and develop a low-carbon society. Highlights • Egypt energy strategies call for GHG reductions and diversified energy portfolios. • Egypt can diversify from natural gas to a mix-supply to improve energy security. • Enhanced promotion of renewables would reduce fossil fuel dependency by 42% by 2050. • The long-term cost of pursuing renewable technologies is not significantly higher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nexus thinking is critical to jointly address growing water, energy, and food security challenges. This paper evaluates the water, energy, and food nexus (WEFN) in the Indus River of Pakistan using the Indus Basin Model Revised—Multi Year, a hydro-agro-economic model extended with an agricultural energy use module. Impacts of a range of climate change scenarios on the WEFN in the Indus Basin were modeled and then the potential of different alternative water allocation mechanisms and water infrastructure developments to address growing water, energy and food security concerns in the country were assessed. Results show growing water and energy use under hotter and wetter climate conditions. While more flexible surface water allocation policies can mitigate negative climate change impacts on agricultural water and energy use allowing for larger crop and hydropower production, such policies might also increase the inter-annual variability of resource use. Moreover, a more flexible surface water allocation policy would increase surface water use in the basin, while groundwater and energy use would be lower. Study results can inform the WEFN in areas with similar hydro-climatic environments, such as California and Central Asia. Further integration of a groundwater model and an energy market model and explicitly addressing changes in food and energy demand as a result of demographic dynamics are three areas for future study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses several reports published within the issue on topics including water-energy-food nexus (WEF nexus), review of trade-offs and synergies of bioenergy and use of freshwater in oil and gas exploration.

The construction of the Rogun Dam in the Amu Darya Basin to increase upstream energy generation creates potential trade-offs with existing downstream irrigation, due to the different timing of energy and irrigation water demands. The present analysis, based on a hydro-economic optimization model, shows that cooperative basin-wide maximization of benefits would lead to large increases in upstream hydropower production and only minor changes in downstream irrigation benefits. However, if upstream stations, including Rogun, are managed unilaterally to maximize energy production, hydropower benefits might more than double while irrigation benefits greatly decrease, thereby substantially reducing overall basin benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue including the impact of climate change in Pakistan, drought occurrence frequency, and irrigation management.

We investigated the spatiotemporal variability of drought incidence in Pakistan during 1960–2007 by calculating Standardized Precipitation Index fields for 3-, 6- and 12-month scales using gridded precipitation data. Principal component analysis revealed that droughts are wide-spread and often occur simultaneously over large areas. Furthermore, spectral analysis identified a 16-year drought recurrence period. Three such drought-intensive periods were identified: the late 1960s to early 1970s; the middle 1980s; and the late 1990s to early 2000s. Hence, drought patterns need to be integrated into long-term water planning as well as emergency preparedness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to considerably affect the water resources in the Indus River basin in Pakistan and thus agricultural production in the country. This article reports an analysis of the impacts of various climate scenarios on both water resources and food production out to 2050. While changes in water availability range from –12% to +24%, depending on the scenario, crop yield and production impacts are negative across all scenarios, and net food imports increase. We suggest a combination of accelerated investment in agricultural research and increased water-use efficiency in agriculture to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on water and food. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, meet growing food demands, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya across several agroecological zones. Several practices emerge as triple wins, supporting climate adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation, and profitability goals. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across all agroecological zones examined. Triple wins of other agricultural practices are limited to specific agroecological zones. Irrigation and soil and water conservation, for example, are essential for adaptation, mitigation, and profitability in arid areas. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted toward these triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households and global climate change mitigation. To reap the benefits of triple-win strategies will require that policymakers, researchers, and practitioners move away from isolated approaches focused on either adaptation or mitigation or rural income generation toward a more holistic assessment of joint strategies as well as their tradeoffs and synergies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least 50%, food production on the continent is almost entirely rainfed. The area equipped for irrigation, currently slightly more than 13 million hectares, makes up just 6% of the total cultivated area. More than 70% of Africa’s poor live in rural areas and mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. As a result, agricultural development is key to ending poverty on the continent. Many development organizations have recently proposed to significantly increase investments in irrigation in the region. However, the potential for irrigation investments in Africa is highly dependent upon geographic, hydrologic, agronomic, and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This paper analyzes the large, dam-based and small-scale irrigation investment potential in Africa based on agronomic, hydrologic, and economic factors. We find significant profitable irrigation potential for both small-scale and large-scale systems. This type of regional analysis can guide distribution of investment funds across countries and should be a first step prior to in-depth country- and local-level assessment of irrigation potential, which will be important to agricultural and economic development in Africa. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Yellow River basin is a key food production centre of global importance facing rapidly growing water scarcity. Water availability for agriculture in the basin is threatened by rapid growth in the demand for industrial and urban water, the need to flush sediment from the river's lower reaches, environmental demands and growing water pollution. Climate change is already evident in the basin with long-term declines in river runoff, higher temperatures, and increasing frequency and intensity of drought. The Chinese government has exhausted most options for improving water supply. The challenge will be to switch to improved water demand management, which is hampered by existing governance structures, and lack of integrated agriculture and water resource policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the vulnerability of South African agriculture to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. Nineteen environmental and socio-economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of the study show that the regions most exposed to climate change and variability do not always overlap with those experiencing high sensitivity or low adaptive capacity. Furthermore, vulnerability to climate change and variability is intrinsically linked with social and economic development. The Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, which have high levels of infrastructure development, high literacy rates, and low shares of agriculture in total GDP, are relatively low on the vulnerability index. In contrast, the highly vulnerable regions of Limpopo, Kwazulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape are characterised by densely populated rural areas, large numbers of small-scale farmers, high dependency on rain-fed agriculture and high land degradation. These large differences in the extent of vulnerability among provinces suggest that policymakers should develop region-specific policies and address climate change at the local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Most food globally is produced from soil moisture that comes exclusively from precipitation, or “green” water. Moreover, most of the water reaching plants in irrigated systems also stems from precipitation. Despite this, irrigation or “blue” water has typically been the focus for policy analysis in the past, given the possibility for human manipulation of these resources. This paper analyzes alternative water futures using a combined green and blue water accounting framework embedded within the water simulation components of IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). Recently developed future scenarios for the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) and other work are assessed with this adjusted green/blue water accounting framework. Accounting explicitly for green water resources broadens the scope of options for decision-makers trying to improve agricultural production in the face of rising food and energy prices and a degrading water and land resource base in the face of increasing demands. Results highlight the importance of green/blue water accounting presenting a wider range of agricultural science and technology policy options for increasing global crop productivity across a span of potential futures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Irrigated agriculture is the main source of water withdrawals, accounting for around 70% of all the world's freshwater withdrawals. The development of irrigated agriculture has boosted agricultural yields and contributed to price stability, making it possible to feed the world's growing population. Rapidly increasing nonagricultural demands for water, changing food preferences, global climate change, and new demands for biofuel production place increasing pressure on scarce water resources. Challenges of growing water scarcity for agriculture are heightened by the increasing costs of developing new water, soil degradation, groundwater depletion, increasing water pollution, the degradation of water-related ecosystems, and wasteful use of already developed water supplies. This article discusses the role of water for agriculture and food security, the challenges facing irrigated agriculture, and the range of policies, institutions, and investments needed to secure adequate access to water for food today and in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview of selected trends and conditions of ecosystem services, in particular, food production and impacts on the environment based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. It then describes outcomes for future ecosystem services under alternative development pathways, with a focus on tradeoffs between food security and the environment, such as implications for fertilizer use, and the role of biofuels. As tradeoffs among various ecosystem services are expected to increase into the future, research will need to focus increasingly on ways to achieve a balance between food security and improving non-food ecosystem services. To reduce adverse future impacts, research is urgently needed in the areas of land use change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity, mitigation strategies for climate change, enhancing water security, and for hot spot regions where ecosystem services and human well-being are particularly vulnerable, including Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Substitution of irrigation water with other agricultural inputs could be an important means to conserve water in the face of growing pressures on water resources from both nonagricultural water demands and environmental water requirements. This paper discusses the potential of such substitution through an empirical analysis based on a multiple-input crop production function at the field and farm scales complemented with a numerical modeling exercise at the basin scale. Results from the crop production function analysis show that under both crop yield and net profit maximization, water is a substitute to other crop inputs for high-value crops, and is a complement to water for low-valued crops. At the basin scale, an integrated economic–hydrologic river basin model is used to analyze the role of other factors in crop input substitution, including the spatial connections among water sources and demands, hydro-agronomic conditions, and institutional settings for water allocation. Results show that in the case study area, the Maipo River basin in Chile, where water is very scarce, moving from the current, input-constrained, situation to full optimization of water resources leads to an increase in all crop inputs, including water. In that case, 301 million m3 of additional water use results in additional net profits of USD 11 million. However, if the water fee is raised by a factor of eight while overall basin irrigation profits are maintained at the original, baseline level, a reduction of water withdrawals by 326 million m3 is traded off with costs of USD 43.2 million for other inputs. Irrigation districts with a high share of low-value crops have a low potential for substituting water with other crop inputs. Therefore, investments for water substitution should also be kept low in these areas. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

With rapid growth in demand for water, the resource is increasingly being transferred from agriculture to cities and industries. This paper examines trends and expected future changes in sectoral water demand, which drive water transfers. It then describes alternative mechanisms for water reallocation, including administrative reallocation, market-based reallocation, collective negotiation, and other means, including combinations of mechanisms, and illegal transfers. Transfer mechanisms and implications for rural livelihoods and the environment are illustrated for case studies in the western United States and Asia. The paper concludes with a series of suggestions for alternative policies and institutions for reallocation that could help reduce adverse consequences for the poor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent water sector reforms and increased scarcity and vulnerability of water resources, combined with declining public funding available for large scale infrastructure investment in the sector, have led to a greater awareness by the Government of Vietnam for the need to analyze water resource allocation and use in an integrated fashion, at the basin scale, and from a perspective of economic efficiency. In this study we focus on the development, application, and selected policy analyses using an integrated economic hydrologic river basin model for the Dong Nai River Basin in southern Vietnam. The model framework depicts the sectoral structure and location of water users (agriculture, industry, hydropower, domestic, and the environment) and the institutions for water allocation in the basin. Water benefit functions are developed for the major water uses subject to physical limitations and to constraints of system control and policy. Based on this modeling framework, we will analyze policies that can affect water allocation and use at the basin level, including both basin-specific and general macroeconomic policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A healthy water ecosystem is particularly important in the Mekong River Basin, home to 75 million people who depend on its water for rice and fish production. Sound water policies will be needed to sustain current basin ecosystem services, balancing complex and often competing demands for water, including the instream uses of hydropower, navigation, wetlands, and fisheries, maintenance of ecosystems versus the offstream uses of irrigation, and domestic and industrial uses. The paper presents a simplified method and application to incorporate water values for fisheries and wetlands into an integrated economic-hydrologic river basin model to analyze alternative water-using strategies and their implications for riparian countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid agricultural and economic development in mainland Southeast Asia during the 1990s has fueled the demand for water resources in the Mekong River Basin. An aggregate; integrated economic-hydrologic model for the basin is developed that allows for the analysis of water allocation and use under alternative policy scenarios. The model describes the water supply situation along the river system and the water demands by the various water-using sectors. Water benefit functions are developed for the major water uses subject to a series of physical and system control constraints. Water supply and demand are balanced based on the economic objective of maximizing net benefits to water use. Results from the analytical framework indicate that although competition for Mekong water still appears to be low; there are substantial tradeoffs between in-stream and off-stream water uses. Further development and refinement of such an integrated framework of analysis can be a critical step to overcome some of the obstacles to effective management and joint cooperation in the Mekong River Basin. It could also facilitate the ongoing negotiations of detailed water allocation rules in the lower basin and thus contribute to the reasonable and equitable utilization of Mekong River waters; as envisioned in the 1995 Mekong Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a regional TIMES modelling framework for the electricity sector of the Eastern Nile Basin region, including Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, to assess the potential of energy trading for cross-border collaboration in this rapidly growing sector. Four alternative scenarios are developed for the 2014–2050 period to assess national and regional benefits of alternative energy development strategies. The study finds that electricity trading scenarios out-perform a reference scenario that assumes no energy trading, lowering systems cost by 4.5–7.2%. Total systems costs are lower, even when transmission costs for trade are considered. Costs are also lower with increased generation from renewables compared to investments without regional trade. Investing in renewables has important co-benefits, such as improved energy security and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Supporting energy trade not only reduces systems costs, but can also strengthen cooperation in the region, as reflected in the energy trading efforts of the East African Power Pool and the transboundary collaboration efforts of the Nile Basin Initiative. • TIMES model provides insights into the implications of technologies. • Regional electricity trade reduces the total system costs and GHG emissions. • Diversification of the primary energy supply-mix improves energy security. • Contribution of renewable energy technologies is significant to supply electricity. • Electricity trade can strengthen cooperation in the Eastern Nile region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A four-step planning framework for water-energy-food at the basin scale is developed. • Detailed river basin simulation coupled with AI-driven optimization is implemented. • The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can support Sudan's irrigation expansion. • Unique, efficient dam operations are identified with each irrigation development plan. Infrastructure in river basins is essential to achieving several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 2 on zero hunger, SDG 6 on water and sanitation, and SDG 7 on affordable and clean energy. However, important tradeoffs and synergies need to be navigated across these goals as both water and resources for infrastructure investments are limited. In transboundary river basins, such tradeoffs can transcend countries, creating a complex, interconnected system of water-energy-food linkages. With increasing pressures on the Blue Nile's water resources from population and economic growth and climate change, an analytical framework for joint planning of these essential human development goals at a fine temporal resolution and considering multi-national priorities can enhance the potential to achieve water, energy, and food security. In this study, we develop and apply a framework for water resources planning in the Blue Nile using four steps: (1) understanding the water-energy-food nexus management landscape through stakeholder engagement and literature review; (2) developing a detailed daily simulator that captures major nexus components and objectives at a fine temporal scale; (3) linking the simulator to an Artificial intelligence-based search algorithm to design efficient agricultural and dam operation portfolios considering national and sectoral priorities; and (4) presenting the results using interactive visualization tools to facilitate dialogue and support decisions. Our results identify efficient operation plans for large dams on the Blue Nile for alternative cropping patterns in expanded irrigation areas in Sudan that minimize tradeoffs across water, energy, and food objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India's agricultural systems are increasingly affected by climate change's adverse effects. The Government of India has an impressive set of programs to address this issue, but they have substantial shortcomings, especially in reaching women farmers. We aim to understand policy and implementation gaps in reaching women farmers with climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices and study how women and men farmer's different roles in agriculture shape their needs and access to complementary services needed to adapt to climate change. An extensive review of India's agriculture and climate policies and program and a series of focus group discussions with farmers in Gujarat, India to discuss constraints and potential entry points for better reaching women farmers with CSA practices. Women's increased vulnerability to climate change and reduced access to CSA practices can be attributed to limited land ownership, poor access to credit, reduced access to information and formal extension, and multiple pressures on their time. Village cooperatives and self-help groups can be leveraged to support women's access to agricultural information and adoption of CSA practices. This paper highlights constraints to information and extension access by Indian women farmers that could impede the widespread adoption of CSA practices. It fills an important knowledge gap in designing gender-responsive policies and inclusive agricultural extension systems to promote adoption of CSA practices among smallholder farmers. [Display omitted] • Women farmers have limited land ownership, access to credit, access to information and formal extension, and time, constraining adoption of climate smart practices. • Building gender-responsive extension systems is critical for promoting adoption of climate smart agriculture practices. • Knowledge of gendered experience of climate change, availability of gender-disaggregated data and gendered analyses are important aspects. • Participatory approaches to policy making and involvement of local and community organizations needs to be strengthened in India. • Village cooperatives and self-help groups can be key intermediary organizations to support women's access to information and adoption of CSA practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article delves into the increasing adoption of solar-powered groundwater irrigation in irrigation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), examining both the prospects and challenges linked to this expanding practice. It discusses the three broad approaches to solar-powered irrigation in LMICs, including stand-alone pumps, grid-connected small solar panels, and large solar power projects.

Standalone solar photovoltaic systems are increasingly being distributed in Ethiopia, but these systems are sub-optimal due to their intermittent power supply. A hybrid system that integrates and optimizes across solar photovoltaic and complementary energy sources, such as wind and diesel generation, can improve reliability, and reduce the unit cost of power production. This study assesses the potential of a hybrid system to electrify a remote rural village in Ethiopia. The Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Electric Renewables model is used to assess primary data, develop a load profile and identify the optimal least-cost system option for the village. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effect of variations in solar radiation, wind speed, and diesel price on optimal system configurations. The results show that a hybrid system with a combination of photovoltaic array, wind turbine, battery and diesel generator is the best option from an economic point of view. To meet the village's daily peak demand of 19.6 kW, energy generation cost is estimated at 0.207 dollars per kilowatt hour and net present cost at 82,734 dollars. The optimal system allows for a reduction of 37.3 tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year compared with diesel-only electricity generation. • Feasibility of photovoltaic-wind-diesel based hybrid system is carried out. • Questionnaire survey based primary data used for load calculation. • Optimization model is used for system optimization and sensitivity analysis. • Model result shows the unit cost of electricity at $0.207 for a feasible system. • Optimal system allows a significant reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater resources (FWRs) are under enormous stress due to human activities and climate change. Given the centrality of local communities in managing natural resources, community-based conservation (CBC) for FWRs (fCBC) offers a mechanism for addressing these challenges. A framework informing fCBC that incorporates unique features of FWRs (such as being fugitive resources, having increased risk of negative externalities, and sheer spatial coverage) is needed to unlock CBC's potential in achieving environmental and developmental impacts in freshwater contexts. We critically review and synthesize existing research adapting The Nature Conservancy's Voice, Choice and Action framework, organized around four pillars (Secure rights and fair externality consideration; Strong community capacity; Effective multi-stakeholder platforms; Sustainable livelihood and development opportunities) and two cross-cutting elements (Cultural connections; Equity and power balancing), and provide recommendations on ways to strengthen facilitation and support community empowerment in fCBC. We report on how applying the framework during a conservation planning process for fCBC projects in four geographies provides important insights for developing robust CBC programs. The unique features of freshwater resources require additional considerations as compared to terrestrial resources. Elevating thinking about how these unique features can exacerbate threats helps motivate more diverse ideas on holistic strategies for community-based conservation. The Voice, Choice and Action framework has been adapted to the freshwater resource context in this study, drawing on a critical literature review. The adapted framework provides a useful framework for conducing strategy selection processes and situation and stakeholder analyses to ensure that projects pay attention to creating critical enabling conditions for robust community-based conservation for freshwater resources capable of preserving cultural connections, achieving equity and water justice, and resolving power imbalance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy sector of Ethiopia continues to largely rely on traditional biomass energy due to limited access to modern energy sources to meet growing demand. Long-term energy demand forecasting is essential to guide the country's plans to expand the energy supply system. This study provides a general overview of Ethiopia's current energy demand and forecasts sector-wise energy demand out to 2030 for alternative policy scenarios using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. The reference scenario assumes a continuation of recent energy consumption trends and takes account of current energy and economic dynamics. Three alternative scenarios on improved cookstoves, efficient lighting, and universal electrification scenario were identified as key priorities of the government of Ethiopia and modeled. Results from the model can assist energy planners in ensuring that the country's capacity for supply meets projected growth in demand for energy. They also shed light on the tradeoffs implicit in alternative policy priorities and investments in terms of economic development and environmental sustainability. Most importantly, the results suggest that alternative investments can conserve energy, improve environmental sustainability, enhance energy equity and improve the country's development indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an assessment of alternative, long-term energy supply and low-carbon strategies for the Philippine power sector from 2014 to 2040 using TIMES model. It examines the potential contribution of renewable energy to diversify the Philippine energy supply-mix to meet future electricity demands. The reference scenario compares the impact of four alternative policy goals: (1) carbon tax, (2) targeted renewable-based power generation, (3) limited coal share in supply-mix, and (4) renewables subsidy. The reference scenario shows a significant increase of the share of coal-based power generation and import dependency of fossil-fuel increases from 227 PJ in 2016 to 1073 PJ in 2040. The model results for the alternative policy scenarios show a large potential for renewable energy-based power generation. The alternative policy options show a significant decrease of import dependency in the energy supply-mix for power generation. Most alternative policy scenarios project a higher total system cost, with the exception of the subsidy scenario. System cost increases only 2.6% in the renewables target scenario relative to the reference scenario. However, long-term benefits from investing in the alternative policy options would need to be considered, including diversification of energy supply-mix, improved energy security, and progress toward a low-carbon society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an assessment of alternative, long-term energy supply strategies for the Ethiopian power sector, during 2015–2045, using the MARKAL energy system model. This study also identifies alternative, sustainable energy supply options to meet Ethiopia's rising demand for energy, while also achieving the policy goals of universal electrification, zero greenhouse gas emissions, increased electricity exports, and improved energy security. In all scenarios, the results show a large potential for renewable energy technologies, such as hydropower, solar PV and wind. These technologies have implications for neighboring countries in the region and will also affect the agriculture sector in Ethiopia. Hydropower, for example, is a renewable energy source that can contribute to rural electrification, while also providing water to support irrigation expansion. An alternative policy scenario prioritizing renewable energy technologies reduces dependence on fossil fuel completely at minimal cost, while providing long-term environmental benefits. Expansion of electricity access to the entire population entails large investments in power generation capacity as well as substantial increases in the total system cost of energy production. Such a scenario would also increase the country's reliance on fossil fuels and geothermal energy sources. Most alternative policy options show higher investment costs will be required to achieve policy goals in the near term (with the exception of the export scenario). However, the analysis shows long-term benefits from investing in energy supply including sustainable energy system development, expansion of access to modern sources of energy, and the development of a low carbon society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Millions of short-term, low-skilled women migrant workers from South-Asia to West-Asia experience exploitative and unsafe conditions. We review evidence from literature and interview 18 key informants to assess the exploitation migrant women face, and highlight the impacts of past interventions to determine their potential, and realised effectiveness, in reducing forced labour and trafficking. We find that women face varied precarious situations along the migration pathway, including interactions with recruiters in the home country, incurring debt, pre-departure formalities and training, withheld wages and mobility restrictions. We discuss varying degrees of success of mechanisms that aim to reduce vulnerability to forced labour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the major determinants of heavy reliance on groundwater and the extent to which conjunctive use of ground and surface water affects the production efficiency of Pakistan’s irrigators. The results show that the major drivers of groundwater use in Pakistan’s agriculture are the variability and uncertainty associated with surface water delivery and that any effort to address the groundwater–energy nexus challenge should first consider fixing the problems associated with surface water supplies. The findings also suggest that having access to groundwater does not directly translate into improvements in technical efficiency of production. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The exponential increase in groundwater usage over the past few decades in the Punjab province in Pakistan is responsible for the significant groundwater table decline in many parts of the province, leading to an urgent need for policy measures to better manage groundwater use. A better understanding of the underground water balance is necessary for drafting informed groundwater management plans. With limited data, this study develops the first physically-based groundwater model for the entire Punjab province. Using the calibrated provincewide model, simulations are performed to evaluate groundwater dynamics in the future under different scenarios. These scenarios comprise controls on groundwater pumping, canal infrastructure improvements, and precipitation changes. The impacts of these scenarios are highlighted with the mapping of changes in water table, pumping cost, and waterlogged area. The results show that changes in both groundwater abstraction and seepage from the canal system into the aquifer significantly impact groundwater heads, whereas the effect of changing precipitation is negligible. Under status quo conditions, the average provincewide pumping cost is projected to increase by 270% in 23 years. The findings emphasize the heterogeneity in groundwater conditions across Punjab and highlight the need for region-specific management of groundwater resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil erosion and subsequent land degradation undermine efforts to ensure food security and environmental sustainability in Ethiopia. The government of Ethiopia has implemented extensive soil and water conservation (SWC) programs in severely degraded and food-insecure areas of the country, in some cases integrated with subsequent or parallel irrigation development. However, the effectiveness of these interventions has not been extensively evaluated. This study, therefore, evaluates the performance and impacts of SWC practices in terms of improving vegetation greenness and reducing soil erosion in Feresmay watershed in Ethiopia. Long- term Landsat-based Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were used for change-detection analysis before and after the implementation of various SWC interventions. The results revealed the positive impacts of SWC interventions in improving the vegetation greenness and soil erosion reduction although the outcome varied by intervention. Increased vegetation green-ness was observed largely in areas where area closure with catchment treatment (ACCT) and impacts of irrigation (IRR) interventions are dominant, while relatively little impact was observed at the watershed level analysis. Although these interventions helped to reduce soil loss, the results highlighted the need for more SWC interventions to minimise further soil loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence on the potential for agricultural intensification to improve nutrition has grown considerably. While small‐scale irrigation is a key factor driving agricultural intensification in sub‐Saharan Africa, its impact on nutrition has not yet been thoroughly explored. In this study, we assess the impact of adoption of small‐scale irrigation in Ethiopia and Tanzania on household and women's dietary diversity, as well as children's nutrition. We use two rounds of primary data collected from irrigators and nonirrigators in Ethiopia and Tanzania. We used a panel fixed effects econometric approach to control for observed household, women and children specific characteristics as well as observed and unobserved time‐invariant confounding factors. The results show that among Ethiopian households who reported having faced drought, women in irrigating households have higher Women's Dietary Diversity Score (WDDS) compared to women in nonirrigating households. In Tanzania, women in irrigating households have higher WDDS compared to nonirrigators and the impact of irrigation on WDDS more than doubles among households facing drought. In addition, among Tanzanian households who reported having faced a drought shock, irrigating households have higher Household Dietary Diversity Score compared to nonirrigators. Children in irrigating households in Ethiopia have weight‐for‐height z‐scores (WHZ) that are 0.87 SDs higher, on average, than WHZ of children in nonirrigating households. In Tanzania, irrigation leads to higher WHZ‐scores in children under‐five among households who reported having experienced a drought in the 5 years preceding the survey. The study shows small‐scale irrigation has a strong effect on households' economic access to food and on nutritional outcomes of women and children. Key messages: Irrigation improves weight‐for‐height z‐scores of children under five in Ethiopia by 0.87 SDs.Irrigation improves weight‐for‐height z‐scores of children under five in Tanzania by 0.62 SDs in households that reported having faced drought.Among households that reported having faced drought, irrigation improves women's dietary diversity in Ethiopia (by about 9%) and household dietary diversity in Tanzania (by about 18%).Irrigation improves women's dietary diversity in Tanzania by about 7.6% among households who did not report drought, and the impact of irrigation on women's diet more than doubles among households facing drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the major determinants of heavy reliance on groundwater and the extent to which conjunctive use of ground and surface water affects the production efficiency of Pakistan’s irrigators. The results show that the major drivers of groundwater use in Pakistan’s agriculture are the variability and uncertainty associated with surface water delivery and that any effort to address the groundwater–energy nexus challenge should first consider fixing the problems associated with surface water supplies. The findings also suggest that having access to groundwater does not directly translate into improvements in technical efficiency of production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper finds productivity-enhancing effects of watercourse-level water users’ associations for farms at the tail of a watercourse and for those that rely exclusively on groundwater – two groups that are marginalized from surface water use and more likely to rely increasingly on groundwater. Yet, heavy reliance on groundwater consumes vast energy resources and leads to environmental degradation through overdraft and groundwater salinization. Improving the management of surface water through functioning watercourse-level institutions can increase use efficiency across water, energy and land resources through increasing agricultural productivity of those now least able to access fresh surface water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Motivation: COVID‐19 has revived focus on improving equitable access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and health services in developing countries. Most public programming tends to rely on economic indicators to identify and target vulnerable groups. Can expanded targeting criteria that include social status help to improve not only targeting, but also equity in access to WASH and health services? Purpose: This article assesses the role of social identity in mediating access to WASH and health services, controlling for economic disadvantages such as household wealth, income sources, and assets. Methods and approach: We use regression analysis applied to the 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to estimate the relationships between social identity and access to WASH and health services, controlling for wealth (using wealth index quantiles) and remittances (using indicator variables for domestic and international remittances). Findings: We find that differences in access are mediated in large part by caste, and religious and ethnic identity, especially in rural areas, suggesting that the supply of such services is lower for historically disadvantaged communities. In addition, communities with least access are not necessarily the most economically disadvantaged, indicating that relying solely on traditional economic indicators to target programmes and interventions may not be sufficient to improve equity in access to public health services. Policy implications: The results make a case for broadening indicators beyond the economic criteria for improving targeting of public funds for more inclusive development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing water demand due to population growth, irrigation expansion, industrial development, and the need for ecosystem improvement under mounting investment costs for developing new water sources calls for the efficient, equitable and sustainable management of water resources. This is particularly essential in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) where ineffective water management institutions are the primary reason of intersectoral and inter-state water sharing conflicts and lack of incentives for improving water use efficiency. This study examined market-based water allocation as an alternative option to the traditional administrative allocation to deal with water scarcity issues in the ASB. Potential economic gains of tradable water use rights were analyzed based on a newly constructed integrated hydro-economic river basin management model. The analysis differentiates between inter-catchment and intra-catchment water rights trading. The results show that compared to a baseline with fixed water use rights, inter-catchment water rights trading can increase basin-wide benefits by US$ 373–476 million. Under intra-catchment trading, gains are still US$ 259–339 million, depending on relative water availability. Gains from trade are larger under drier conditions. However, water rights trading carries a series of transaction costs. We find that in case transaction costs exceed US$ 0.05/m 3 of water traded there is no additional economic gain from water rights trading. Enforcement of the rule of law, infrastructural improvements, participation of representatives of key water stakeholders in decision making processes, and mutual trust and cooperative relationships among the riparian countries are suggested as means for reducing transaction costs of water rights trading contracts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some agricultural practices, such as irrigation, have the potential to buffer seasonal dietary gaps and through increased production and consumption improve diets, particularly of the rural poor relying on subsistence farming but also for rural and urban households purchasing irrigated produce on local markets. The study aimed to evaluate the effect of seasonality and irrigation on women's diet in rural Ethiopia. Using a longitudinal study design, three rounds of surveys were conducted among women of reproductive age (15–49 years). Data on socioeconomic status, food consumption and haemoglobin concentration was collected. Energy and nutrient intakes were estimated using an interviewer‐administered multiple‐pass 24‐h recall. Women's dietary diversity score (WDDS), the proportion of women meeting the minimum dietary diversity for women (MDDW), haemoglobin concentration, the prevalence of anaemia and energy and nutrients intakes were compared between irrigators and nonirrigators and by season. Associations between MDDW/WDDS and irrigation status were assessed using fixed‐effect models, after adjusting for covariates. WDDS was low (3–4 out of 10 food groups) and exhibited high seasonal variability (p < 0.05). Diets were predominantly cereal‐based, with little consumption of nutrient‐dense foods like fruits and animal source foods. High seasonal variability in energy, protein, vitamin C, calcium, iron and zinc intakes were observed (p < 0.01). Irrigators were more likely to meet the MDDW than women from non‐irrigating households (p < 0.05). No cases of malaria were reported from the three rounds of screening. There is a high seasonal variation in women's diet, but this could be partly offset by irrigation practices. Key message: Women's dietary diversity was low and exhibited high seasonal variation.The associations between season and diets were mediated by irrigation.Higher energy intakes were observed among women from households practising irrigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper establishes empirical evidence relating the agriculture and health sectors in Uganda. The analysis explores linkages between agricultural management, malaria and implications for improving community health outcomes in rural Uganda. The goal of this exploratory work is to expand the evidence-base for collaboration between the agricultural and health sectors in Uganda. Methods: The paper presents an analysis of data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey using a parametric multivariate Two-Limit Tobit model to identify correlations between agro-ecological variables including geographically joined daily seasonal precipitation records and household level malaria risk. The analysis of agricultural and environmental factors as they affect household malaria rates, disaggregated by age-group, is inspired by a complimentary review of existing agricultural malaria literature indicating a gap in evidence with respect to agricultural management as a form of malaria vector management. Crop choices and agricultural management practices may contribute to vector control through the simultaneous effects of reducing malaria transmission, improving housing and nutrition through income gains, and reducing insecticide resistance in both malaria vectors and agricultural pests. Results: The econometric results show the existence of statistically significant correlations between crops, such as sweet potatoes/yams, beans, millet and sorghum, with household malaria risk. Local environmental factors are also influential- daily maximum temperature is negatively correlated with malaria, while daily minimum temperature is positively correlated with malaria, confirming trends in the broader literature are applicable to the Ugandan context. Conclusions: Although not necessarily causative, the findings provide sufficient evidence to warrant purposefully designed work to test for agriculture health causation in vector management. A key constraint to modeling the agricultural basis of malaria transmission is the lack of data integrating both the health and agricultural information necessary to satisfy the differing methodologies used by the two sectors. A national platform for collaboration between the agricultural and health sectors could help align programs to achieve better measurements of agricultural interactions with vector reproduction and evaluate the potential for agricultural policy and programs to support rural malaria control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Agricultural water productivity (WP) has been recognized as an important indicator of agricultural water management. This study assesses the WP for irrigated (WPI) and rainfed (WPR) crops in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in China. WPI and WPR are calculated for major crops (corn, wheat, rice, and soybean) using experimental, statistical and empirically estimated data. The spatial variability of WPI and WRR is analyzed with regard to water and energy factors. Results show that although irrigated corn and soybean yields are significantly higher than rainfed yields in different regions of the YRB, WPI is slightly lower than WPR for these two crops. This can be explained by the seasonal coincidence of precipitation and solar energy patterns in the YRB. However, as expected, irrigation stabilizes crop production per unit of water consumption over space. WPI and WPR vary spatially from upstream to downstream in the YRB as a result of varying climate and water supply conditions. The water factor has stronger effects on both crop yield and WP than the energy factor in the upper and middle basin, whereas energy matters more in the lower basin. Moreover, WP in terms of crop yield is compared to that in terms of agricultural GDP and the results are not consistent. This paper contributes to the WP studies by a basin context, a comparison between WPI and WPR, a comparison of WP in terms of crop yield and economic value, and insights on the water and energy factors on WP. Moreover, policy implications based on the WP analysis are provided. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Water management in the Pirapama River Basin in northeastern Brazil is affected by both water quantity and water quality constraints. The region is known for significant sugarcane-based ethanol production—which is the key to the Brazilian economy and expected to grow dramatically under recent changes in climate and energy policies. Sugarcane production in the region goes hand in hand with controlled fertirrigation practices with potentially significant adverse impacts on the environment. To assess sustainable water allocation in the basin, an integrated hydrologic-economic basin model is adapted to study both water quantity and quality aspects. The model results show that incorporating water quality aspects into water allocation decisions leads to a substantial reduction in application of vinasse to sugarcane fields. Embedding highly nonlinear water quality constraints in a basin optimization model is demonstrated to be an effective tool to address the water management problems in rapidly developing biofuel areas of Brazil and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines climate adaptation strategies of farmers in the Limpopo Basin of South Africa. Survey results show that while many farmers noticed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation, most could not take remedial action. Lack of access to credit and water were cited as the main factors inhibiting adaptation. Common adaptation responses reported included diversifying crops, changing varieties and planting dates, using irrigation, and supplementing livestock feed. A multinomial logit analysis of climate adaptation responses suggests that access to water, credit, extension services and off-farm income and employment opportunities, tenure security, farmers' asset base and farming experience are key to enhancing farmers' adaptive capacity. This implies that appropriate government interventions to improve farmers' access to and the status of these factors are needed for reducing vulnerability of farmers to climate adversities in such arid areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Four quantitative scenarios are presented that describe changes in worldwide ecosystem services up to 2050–2100. A set of soft-linked global models of human demography, economic development, climate, and biospheric processes are used to quantify these scenarios. The global demand for ecosystem services substantially increases up to 2050: cereal consumption by a factor of 1.5 to 1.7, fish consumption (up to the 2020s) by a factor of 1.3 to 1.4, water withdrawals by a factor of 1.3 to 2.0, and biofuel production by a factor of 5.1 to 11.3. The ranges for these estimates reflect differences between the socio-economic assumptions of the scenarios. In all simulations, Sub-Saharan Africa continues to lag behind other parts of the world. Although the demand side of these scenarios presents an overall optimistic view of the future, the supply side is less optimistic: the risk of higher soil erosion (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa) and lower water availability (especially in the Middle East) could slow down an increase in food production. Meanwhile, increasing wastewater discharges during the same period, especially in Latin America (factor of 2 to 4) and Sub-Saharan Africa (factor of 3.6 to 5.6) could interfere with the delivery of freshwater services. Marine fisheries (despite the growth of aquaculture) may not have the ecological capacity to provide for the increased global demand for fish. Our simulations also show an intensification of present tradeoffs between ecosystem services, e.g., expansion of agricultural land (between 2000 and 2050) may be one of the main causes of a 10%–20% loss of total current grassland and forest land and the ecosystem services associated with this land (e.g., genetic resources, wood production, habitat for terrestrial biota and fauna). The scenarios also show that certain hot-spot regions may experience especially rapid changes in ecosystem services: the central part of Africa, southern Asia, and the Middle East. In general, the scenarios show a positive balance of increasing services, especially in developing countries, and a negative balance of increasing risks and tradeoffs of services. The challenge, then, is dealing with these risks so as to avoid a future curtailment of ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the potential role of investments in irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa in improving food security and self-sufficiency in the region. Focusing on the region’s drylands, the study identifies a potential for expanded irrigated area of 6-14 million hectares (ha), depending on technology costs and other factors. Linkage of these results with a global agricultural trade model shows that accelerated irrigation investment can effectively reduce growing food import dependency from 54% under a business-as-usual scenario to a much smaller 17-40%; and can also reduce the population at risk of hunger and child under-nutrition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• In Mongolia, livestock play an important role in food security, consumption, and pastoral animal husbandry traditions. However, the reliance on pastoral livestock and rainfed agriculture along with its fragile ecosystems put Mongolia's economy at risk of adverse climate change impacts, particularly from extreme weather events. • Using a qualitative, participatory methods approach, this study identified the perceived climate threats to two Mongolian food value chains—meat (high/excessive consumption) and vegetables (low consumption)—across the natural zones of Mongolia and the lived experience constraints put on the producers, traders, retailers, and consumers of these commodities. • Following this qualitative analysis, a climate-nutrition-sensitive value chain analysis was undertaken to identify how climate and nutrition resilience could be maximized and nutrient losses minimized to reduce adverse climate change impacts on diets and nutrition of the Mongolian population. • For the livestock sector, it will be important to invest in diverse livestock breeding strategies that focus on improving growth yields, and that are tolerant to weather extremes. The focus should be on quality, not quantity and extensification. • Vegetable producers operate in an informal realm. The establishment of cooperatives, capacity building on agricultural technology and best practices, and more direct government support could help increase vegetable production. Mongolia's projected warming is far above the global average and could exceed 5 °C by the end of the century. The reliance on pastoral livestock and rainfed agriculture along with its fragile ecosystems put Mongolia's economy at risk of adverse climate change impacts, particularly from climate extreme events. Eighty percent of Mongolia's agricultural sector is concentrated in animal husbandry with around one third of the population relying on this livelihood. Beyond livestock, food production is concentrated in few crops: wheat; potatoes; and three vegetables (cabbage, carrot, and turnip). Climate change does not only affect food production but can exacerbate malnutrition by removing food and nutrients in all stages of the food value chain. To identify perceived effects of climate change and measures to reduce climate change impacts in Mongolia's's key food value chains, we implemented focus group discussions with 214 livestock and vegetable producers, traders, and food consumers. We also conducted 30 key informant interviews at the soum, provincial, and national levels across four agroecosystems in three provinces. Based on this community engagement analysis, we identify interventions that the government and private sector, including herders and farmers, should undertake to increase the food security and nutrition of the country's prioritized food value chains under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydropower plays an important role as the global energy system moves towards a less carbon-intensive and sustainable future as promoted under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This article provides a systematic review of the impacts from policy, climate change and Water-Energy-Food (W-E-F) nexus on hydropower development at global scale. Asia, Africa and Latin America are hotspots promoting hydropower development with capacity expansion, while Europe and North America focus on performance improvement and environment impacts mitigation. Climate change is projected to improve gross hydropower potential (GHP) at high latitude of North Hemisphere and tropical Africa and decrease that in the US, South Africa and south and central Europe. Analysis from W-E-F nexus highlights the importance of integrated approaches as well as cross-sectoral coordination so as to improve resources use efficiency and achieve sustainable hydropower development. These three factors together shape the future of hydropower and need to be considered for planning and operation purpose. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]