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Time-to-event methods have been proposed in the agricultural sciences, as one of the most suitable options for the analysis of seed germination data. In contrast to traditional linear/nonlinear regression, time-to-event methods can easily account for all statistical peculiarities inherited in germination assays, such as censoring, and they can produce unbiased estimates of model parameters and their standard errors. So far, these methods have only been used in combination with empirical models of germination, which are lacking biological underpinnings. We bridge the gap between statistical requirements and biological understanding by developing a general method that formulates biologically-oriented hydro time (HT), thermal time (TT) and hydrothermal time (HTT) models into a time-to-event framework. HT, TT, and HTT models are widely used for describing seed germination and emergence of plants as affected by the environmental temperature and/or water potential. Owing to their simplicity and the direct biological interpretation of model parameters, these models have become one of the most common tools for both predicting germination as well as understanding the physiology of germination responses to environmental factors. However, these models are usually fitted by using nonlinear regression and, therefore, they fall short of statistical rigor when inference about model parameters is of interest. In this study, we develop HT-to-event, TT-to-event and HTT-to-event models and provide a readily available implementation relying on the package “drc” in the R statistical environment. Examples of usage are also provided and we highlight the possible advantages of this procedure, such as efficiency and flexibility.

The recovery of a 1.5 million yr long ice core from Antarctica represents a keystone of our understanding of Quaternary climate, the progression of glaciation over this time period and the role of greenhouse gas cycles in this progression. Here we tackle the question of where such ice may still be found in the Antarctic ice sheet. We can show that such old ice is most likely to exist in the plateau area of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) without stratigraphic disturbance and should be able to be recovered after careful presite selection studies. Based on a simple ice and heat flow model and glaciological observations, we conclude that positions in the vicinity of major domes and saddle position on the East Antarctic Plateau will most likely have such old ice in store and represent the best study areas for dedicated reconnaissance studies in the near future. In contrast to previous ice core drill site selections, however, we strongly suggest significantly reduced ice thickness to avoid bottom melting. For example for the geothermal heat flux and accumulation conditions at Dome C, an ice thickness lower than but close to about 2500 m would be required to find 1.5 Myr old ice (i.e., more than 700 m less than at the current EPICA Dome C drill site). Within this constraint, the resolution of an Oldest-Ice record and the distance of such old ice to the bedrock should be maximized to avoid ice flow disturbances, for example, by finding locations with minimum geothermal heat flux. As the geothermal heat flux is largely unknown for the EAIS, this parameter has to be carefully determined beforehand. In addition, detailed bedrock topography and ice flow history has to be reconstructed for candidates of an Oldest-Ice ice coring site. Finally, we argue strongly for rapid access drilling before any full, deep ice coring activity commences to bring datable samples to the surface and to allow an age check of the oldest ice.

Recent unexpected changes in the Antarctic Ice Sheet, including ice sheet thinning, ice shelf collapse and changes in ice velocities, along with the recent realization that as much as one third of ice shelf mass loss is due to bottom melt, place a new urgency on understanding the processes involved in these changes. Technological advances, including very new or forthcoming satellite-based (e.g. ICESat, CryoSat) remote sensing missions, will improve our ability to make meaningful determinations of changes in Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance. This paper is the result of a workshop held to develop a strategy for international collaboration aimed at the collection and synthesis of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance data, and at understanding the processes involved so that we might predict future change. Nine sets of recommendations are made, concerning the most important and sensitive measurements, temporal ranges and study areas. A final tenth recommendation calls for increased synthesis of ice sheet data and communication between the field measurement, satellite observation and modelling communities. © 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial-interglacial cycles. The succession of changes through each climate cycle and termination was similar, and atmospheric and climate properties oscillated between stable bounds. Interglacial periods differed in temporal evolution and duration. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane correlate well with Antarctic air-temperature throughout the record. Present-day atmospheric burdens of these two important greenhouse gases seem to have been unprecedented during the past 420,000 years.

Ice cores drilled at Vostok Station, Antarctica, and studied over the past 10 years by Russia, France, and the United States (Figure 1) are providing a wealth of information about past climate and environmental changes over more than a full glacial-interglacial cycle. The ice cores show that East Antarctica was colder and drier during glacial periods than during the Holocene and that large-scale atmospheric circulation was more vigorous during glacial times. They also support evidence from deep-sea sediment studies favoring orbital forcing of Pleistocene climate, reveal direct correlations of carbon dioxide and methane concentrations with temperature, and indicate how the accumulation of trace compounds have changed through time.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: A nutritionally adequate diet in childhood is important for health and resistance of allergies and infections. This study explored the effects of school meals rich in fish, vegetables and fibre on school attendance, asthma, allergies and illness in 797 Danish 8- to 11-year-old children. No comparable studies conducted in high-income settings have been identified. SUBJECTS/METHODS: The OPUS School Meal Study was a cluster-randomised cross-over trial. Children from third and fourth grades at nine Danish schools received school meals or usual packed lunch (control) for two 3-month periods. Occurrence and duration of illnesses, asthma and allergies during the last 14 days were recorded by parental questionnaires at baseline and after each 3-month period. Self-reported well-being was assessed by visual analogue scales. RESULTS: The school meals did not affect school attendance, parent-reported occurrence or duration of asthma and allergies or self-reported well-being. The most common symptoms of illness were stomach pain (24%), headache (28%) and cold (24%). A slightly higher number of children experienced headaches in the school meal (27%) compared with the control period (22%) (P = 0.02). However, subgroup analyses showed that this effect was only seen in children eating school meals in the classroom (P = 0.007), and not in common dining areas (P = 0.2). No effect was found on other symptoms of illness. CONCLUSIONS: Provision of nutritionally balanced school meals did not affect school attendance, asthma, allergies, illness or wellbeing in 8- to 11-year-old children. The slight increase in occurrence of headaches seems to be related to the physical eating environment. European Journal of Clinical Nutrition (2015) 69, 626-631; doi: 10.1038/ejcn.2014.263; published online 10 December 2014, INTRODUCTION A balanced and nutritionally adequate diet in childhood is important for optimal health and resistance of allergies and infections. A number of dietary factors have been proposed to have [...]

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Transformation of outcomes is frequently used in the analysis of studies in clinical nutrition. However, back-transformation of estimated treatment means and differences is complicated by the nonlinear nature of the transformations. It is not straightforward to obtain an estimated treatment difference that can be interpreted without any reference to the additional predictors included in the statistical model; and moreover, standard errors are not easily available. The aim of this work was to provide a generally applicable, yet operational procedure for obtaining back- transformed estimated differences, and corresponding standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Based on data from two randomized controlled studies and an exemplary data set that had all previously been published, we evaluated our approximate procedure by comparing results for different approaches for showing back-transformed estimated treatment differences. RESULTS: Estimated differences obtained on logarithm, square root and reciprocal square root-transformed scales were back-transformed into estimated differences on the original scales, and these estimates were in good agreement with the results reported by the original studies. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed approximate procedure provides a flexible approach for obtaining quite accurate back-transformed estimated differences in terms of medians and for deriving the corresponding standard errors. European Journal of Clinical Nutrition (2014) 68, 277-280; doi: 10.1038/ejcn.2013.259; published online 11 December 2013 Keywords: statistics; delta method; logarithm transformation; parametric models, INTRODUCTION In clinical nutrition, transformation of an outcome is often needed in order to make a valid statistical analysis. (1-6) However, statistical analysis of blood parameters or ratings on a [...]