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Urban expansion in rural areas may impact agricultural revenues and the burden of service provision on local governments. Spatially explicit urban growth models shed light on the consequences of such land use decisions. The San Joaquin Valley, an important agricultural region of California, will double in population by 2050. Using this region as an example, we modeled the spatial patterns of urban growth under seven policy scenarios and calculated potential loss of annual agricultural revenue from each. We also measured the distance from existing urban areas to new development in order to develop scenario-specific indicators of the cost to local governments for providing urban services such as sewer, water, roads, police and fire protection. As with all modeling exercises, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the model being applied is essential for interpretation. The modeling applied here is not a full economic mode, but instead applies simple processes using frequently available data to estimate the farmgate revenue lost to agricultural land conversion and to represent service costs. Crop replacement, relocation, and the conversion of unfarmed lands to cropland, among other factors, are not considered. Other effects either positive or negative that may result from the growth patterns have not been analyzed. The unconstrained growth scenario (Status Quo) consumed the most land and had the greatest impact on agricultural revenue. Compact development had the least impact on agricultural revenue and the shortest distances to new development. Other forms of agricultural land protection and growth management scenarios fell short of the agricultural revenue savings and service cost reductions provided by compact development.

In face matching, observers have to decide whether two photographs depict the same person or different people. This task is not only remarkably difficult but accuracy declines further during prolonged testing. The current study investigated whether this decline in long tasks can be eliminated with regular rest-breaks (Experiment 1) or room-switching (Experiment 2). Both experiments replicated the accuracy decline for long face-matching tasks and showed that this could not be eliminated with rest or room-switching. These findings suggest that person identification in applied settings, such as passport control, might be particularly error-prone due to the long and repetitive nature of the task. The experiments also show that it is difficult to counteract these problems.

In forensic person recognition tasks, mistakes in the identification of unfamiliar faces occur frequently. This study explored whether these errors might arise because observers are poor at judging their ability to recognize unfamiliar faces, and also whether they might conflate the recognition of familiar and unfamiliar faces. Across two experiments, we found that observers could predict their ability to recognize famous but not unfamiliar faces. Moreover, observers seemed to partially conflate these abilities by adjusting ability judgements for famous faces after a test of unfamiliar face recognition (Experiment 1) and vice versa (Experiment 2). These findings suggest that observers have limited insight into their ability to identify unfamiliar faces. These experiments also show that judgements of recognition abilities are malleable and can generalize across different face categories.

This article puts forward a robust historically-informed analysis of the current state of Christian theology and film discourse, establishing the necessary conditions not only for making sense of how the field has developed over time but also for imagining where it might go in the future. In comparison to other academic disciplines, the subdiscipline of theology and film is still in its infancy, but the field has also experienced a great deal of expansion, maturation, and growth since its inception in the early twentieth century. Thus, this article maps the current state of the theology and film discourse in light of the discipline’s historical development, focusing in particular on its theological, biblical, ethical, aesthetic, and ecclesial contours. It concludes by exploring the leading edges of the field’s horizon of possibilities, namely, a renewed emphasis on greater engagement with world cinema, an expansion of the boundaries of ‘theology’, a more responsible interaction with the social sciences, and a recognition that ‘cinema’ is a fundamentally dynamic and ever-emergent concept.

Summary: DNA elements act across long genomic distances to regulate gene expression. During transvection in Drosophila, DNA elements on one allele of a gene act between chromosomes to regulate expression of the other allele. Little is known about the biological roles and developmental regulation of transvection. Here, we study the stochastic expression of spineless (ss) in photoreceptors in the fly eye to understand transvection. We determine a biological role for transvection in regulating expression of naturally occurring ss alleles. We identify DNA elements required for activating and repressing transvection. Different enhancers participate in transvection at different times during development to promote gene expression and specify cell fates. Bringing a silencer element on a heterologous chromosome into proximity with the ss locus “reconstitutes” the gene, leading to repression. Our studies show that transvection regulates gene expression via distinct DNA elements at specific timepoints in development, with implications for genome organization and architecture.

Background: Surgery for established cataract is highly cost-effective and uncontroversial, yet uncertainty remains for individuals about when to proceed and when to delay surgery during the earlier stages of cataract. Objective: We aimed to improve decision-making for cataract surgery through the development of evidence-based clinical tools that provide general information and personalised risk/benefit information. Design: We used a mixed methodology consisting of four work packages. Work package 1 involved the development and psychometric validation of a brief, patient self-reported measure of visual difficulty from cataract and its relief from surgery, named Cataract Patient-Reported Outcome Measure, five items (Cat-PROM5). Work package 2 involved the review and refinement of risk models for adverse surgical events (posterior capsule rupture and visual acuity loss related to cataract surgery). Work package 3 involved the development of prediction models for the Cat-PROM5-based self-reported outcomes from a cohort study of 1500 patients; assessment of the validity of preference-based health economic indices for cataract surgery and the calibration of these to Cat-PROM5; assessment of patients’ and health-care professionals’ views on risk–benefit presentation formats, the perceived usefulness of Cat-PROM5, the value of personalised risk–benefit information, high-value information items and shared decision-making; development of cataract decision aid frequently asked questions, incorporation of personalised estimates of risks and benefits; and development of a cataract decision quality measure to assess the quality of decision-making. Work package 4 involved a mixed-methods feasibility study for a fully powered randomised controlled trial of the use of the cataract decision aid and a qualitative study of discordant or mismatching perceptions of outcome between patients and health-care professionals. Setting: Four English NHS recruitment centres were involved: Bristol (lead centre), Brighton, Gloucestershire and Torbay. Multicentre NHS cataract surgery data were obtained from the National Ophthalmology Database. Participants: Work package 1 – participants (n = 822) were from all four centres. Work package 2 – electronic medical record data were taken from the National Ophthalmology Database (final set > 1M operations). Work package 3 – cohort study participants were from Bristol (n = 1200) and Gloucestershire (n = 300); qualitative and development work was undertaken with patients and health-care professionals from all four centres. Work package 4 – Bristol, Brighton and Torbay participated in the recruitment of patients (n = 42) for the feasibility trial and recruitment of health-care professionals for the qualitative elements. Interventions: For the feasibility trial, the intervention was the use of the cataract decision aid, incorporating frequently asked questions and personalised estimations of both adverse outcomes and self-reported benefit. Main outcome measures: There was a range of quantitative and qualitative outcome measures: questionnaire psychometric performance metrics, risk indicators of adverse surgical events and visual outcome, predictors of self-reported outcome following cataract surgery, patient and health-care practitioner views, health economic calibration measures and randomised controlled trial feasibility measures. Data sources: The data sources were patient self-reported questionnaire responses, study clinical data collection forms, recorded interviews with patients and health-care professionals, and anonymised National Ophthalmology Database data. Results: Work package 1 – Cat-PROM5 was developed and validated with excellent to good psychometric properties (Rasch reliability 0.9, intraclass correlation repeatability 0.9, unidimensionality with residual eigenvalues ≤ 1.5) and excellent responsiveness to surgical intervention (Cohen delta –1.45). Work package 2 – earlier risk models for posterior capsule rupture and visual acuity loss were broadly affirmed (C-statistic for posterior capsule rupture 0.64; visual acuity loss 0.71). Work package 3 – the Cat-PROM5-based self-reported outcome regression models were derived based on 1181 participants with complete data (R2 ≈ 30% for each). Of the four preference-based health economic indices assessed, two demonstrated reasonable performance. Cat-PROM5 was successfully calibrated to health economic indices; adjusted limited dependent variable mixture models offered good to excellent fit (root-mean-square error 0.10–0.16). The personalised quantitative risk information was generally perceived as beneficial. A cataract decision aid and cataract decision quality measure were successfully developed based on the views of patients and health-care professionals. Work package 4 – data completeness was good for the feasibility study primary and secondary variables both before and after intervention/surgery (data completeness range 100–88%). Considering ability to recruit, the sample size required, instrumentation and availability of necessary health economic data, a fully powered randomised controlled trial (patients, n = 800, effect size 0.2 standard deviations, power 80%; p = 0.05) of the cataract decision aid would be feasible following psychometric refinement of the primary outcome (the cataract decision quality measure). The cataract decision aid was generally well-received by patients and health-care professionals, with cautions raised regarding perceived time and workload barriers. Discordant outcomes mostly related to patient dissatisfaction, with no clinical problem found. Limitations: The National Ophthalmology Database data are expected to include some errors (mitigated by large multicentre data aggregations). The feasibility randomised controlled trial primary outcome (the cataract decision quality measure) displayed psychometric imperfections requiring refinement. The clinical occurrence of discordant outcomes is uncommon and the study team experienced difficulty identifying patients in this situation. Future work: Future work could include regular review of the risk models for adverse outcomes to ensure currency, and the technical precision of complex-numbers analysis of refractive outcome to invite opportunities to improve post-operative spectacle-free vision. In addition, a fully powered randomised controlled trial of the cataract decision aid would be feasible, following psychometric refinement of the primary outcome (the cataract decision quality measure); this would clarify its potential role in routine service delivery. Conclusions: In this research programme, evidence-based clinical tools have been successfully developed to improve pre-operative decision-making in cataract surgery. These include a psychometrically robust, patient-reported outcome measure (Cat-PROM5); prediction models for patient self-reported outcomes using Cat-PROM5; prediction models for clinically adverse surgical events and adverse visual acuity outcomes; and a cataract decision aid with relevant general information and personalised risk/benefit predictions. In addition, the successful mapping of Cat-PROM5 to existing health economic indices was achieved and the performances of indices were assessed in patients undergoing cataract surgery. A future full-powered randomised controlled trial of the cataract decision aid would be feasible (patients, n = 800, effect size 0.2 standard deviations, power 80%; p = 0.05). Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN11309852. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 10, No. 9. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Humans rely on visual cues to navigate the world around them. Vision begins with the detection of light by photoreceptor cells in the retina, a light-sensitive tissue located at the back of the eye. Photoreceptor types are defined by morphology, gene expression, light sensitivity, and function. Rod photoreceptors function in low-light vision and motion detection, and cone photoreceptors are responsible for high-acuity daytime and trichromatic color vision. In this review, we discuss the generation, development, and patterning of photoreceptors in the human retina. We describe our current understanding of how photoreceptors are patterned in concentric regions. We conclude with insights into mechanisms of photoreceptor differentiation drawn from studies of model organisms and human retinal organoids.

Nervous systems are incredibly diverse, with myriad neuronal subtypes defined by gene expression. How binary and graded fate characteristics are patterned across tissues is poorly understood. Expression of opsin photopigments in the cone photoreceptors of the mouse retina provides an excellent model to address this question. Individual cones express S-opsin only, M-opsin only, or both S-opsin and M-opsin. These cell populations are patterned along the dorsal-ventral axis, with greater M-opsin expression in the dorsal region and greater S-opsin expression in the ventral region. Thyroid hormone signaling plays a critical role in activating M-opsin and repressing S-opsin. Here, we developed an image analysis approach to identify individual cone cells and evaluate their opsin expression from immunofluorescence imaging tiles spanning roughly 6 mm along the D-V axis of the mouse retina. From analyzing the opsin expression of ~250,000 cells, we found that cones make a binary decision between S-opsin only and co-expression competent fates. Co-expression competent cells express graded levels of S- and M-opsins, depending nonlinearly on their position in the dorsal-ventral axis. M- and S-opsin expression display differential, inverse patterns. Using these single-cell data, we developed a quantitative, probabilistic model of cone cell decisions in the retinal tissue based on thyroid hormone signaling activity. The model recovers the probability distribution for cone fate patterning in the mouse retina and describes a minimal set of interactions that are necessary to reproduce the observed cell fates. Our study provides a paradigm describing how differential responses to regulatory inputs generate complex patterns of binary and graded cell fates.