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2. Challenges of Operational Weather Forecast Verification and Evaluation

Author

Pagano, Thomas C., Casati, Barbara, Landman, Stephanie, Loveday, Nicholas, Taggart, Robert, Ebert, Elizabeth E., Khanarmuei, Mohammadreza, Jensen, Tara L., Mittermaier, Marion, Roberts, Helen, Willington, Steve, Roberts, Nigel, Sowko, Mike, Strassberg, Gordon, Kluepfel, Charles, Bullock, Timothy A., Turner, David D., Pappenberger, Florian, Osborne, Neal, and Noble, Chris

Subjects
Weather forecasting -- Analysis, Decision-making -- Analysis, Business, Earth sciences, Analysis
Abstract

Operational agencies face significant challenges related to the verification and evaluation of weather forecasts. These challenges were investigated in a series of online workshops and polls engaging operational personnel from six countries. Five key themes emerged: inadequate verification approaches for both existing and emerging products; incomplete and uncertain observations; difficulties in accurately capturing users' real-world experiences using simplified metrics; poor communication and understanding of forecasts and complex verification information; and institutional factors such as limited resources, evolving meteorologist roles, and concerns over reputational damage. We identify nearly 50 operationally relevant scientific questions and suggest calls to action. Addressing these needs includes designing forecast systems with verification as a central consideration, enhancing the availability of observations, and developing and adopting community software systems. Additionally, we propose the establishment of an international community comprising environmental and social science researchers, statisticians, verification practitioners, and users to provide sustained support for this collective endeavor. KEYWORDS: Uncertainty; Forecast verification/skill; Numerical weather prediction/ forecasting; Operational forecasting; Communications/ decision-making, 1. Introduction Weather prediction (Fig. 1) is a continuously evolving enterprise. The rapid expansion of various types of data (including satellite and other kinds), coupled with increasing computer capabilities, advances [...]

Published
2024
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5. A Design to Investigate the Feasibility and Effects of Partnered Ballroom Dancing on People With Parkinson Disease: Randomized Controlled Trial Protocol

Author

Ashburn, Ann, Roberts, Lisa, Pickering, Ruth, Roberts, Helen Clare, Wiles, Rose, Kunkel, Dorit, Hulbert, Sophia, Robison, Judy, and Fitton, Carolyn

Subjects
Medicine, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7
Abstract

BackgroundSelf-help and physical leisure activities has become increasingly important in the maintenance of safe and functional mobility among an increasingly elderly population. Preventing the cycle of deterioration, falling, inactivity, dependency, and secondary complications in people with Parkinson disease (PD) is a priority. Research has shown that people with PD are interested in dance and although the few existing trials are small, initial proof of principle trials from the United States have demonstrated beneficial effects on balance control, gait, and activity levels. To our knowledge, there has been no research into long-term effects, cost effectiveness, the influence on spinal posture and turning, or the personal insights of dance participants. ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to determine the methodological feasibility of conducting a definitive phase III trial to evaluate the benefits of dance in people with PD. We will build on the proof of principle trials by addressing gaps in knowledge, focusing on areas of greatest methodological uncertainty; the choice of dances and intensity of the program; for the main trial, the availability of partners, the suitability of the currently envisaged primary outcomes, balance and spinal posture; and the key costs of delivering and participating in a dance program to inform economic evaluation. MethodsFifty participants (mild-to-moderate condition) will be randomized to the control (usual care) or experimental (dance plus usual care) groups at a ratio of 15:35. Dance will be taught by professional teachers in a dance center in the South of England. Each participant in the experimental group will dance with his or her spouse, a friend, or a partner from a bank of volunteers. A blinded assessor will complete clinical measures and self-reported ability at baseline, and at 3 and 6 months after randomization. A qualitative study of a subgroup of participants and partners will examine user’s views about the appropriateness and acceptability of the intervention, assessment protocol, and general trial procedures. Procedures for an economic evaluation of dance for health care will be developed for the main trial. ResultsRecruitment began in January 2013 and the last participant is expected to complete the trial follow-up in June 2014. ConclusionsFindings from our study may provide novel insights into the way people with PD become involved in dance, their views and opinions, and the suitability of our primary and secondary outcomes. Trial RegistrationInternational Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 63088686; http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN63088686/63088686 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6QYyjehP7).

Published
2014
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9. Women's representation in managerial hierarchies: An examination of trickle‐down and pipeline effects.

Author

Stainback, Kevin, Roberts, Helen, and Biswas, Pallab Kumar

Subjects
CORPORATE culture, HEALTH services administration, GENDER role, EXECUTIVES, DIVERSITY & inclusion policies, LEADERSHIP, SEX distribution, LABOR mobility, GENDER inequality, WOMEN employees, EMPLOYMENT discrimination, WOMEN'S employment
Abstract

The trickle‐down effect has been proposed as one means to address women's continued underrepresentation in leadership positions globally. While earlier research supported the trickle‐down effect's prediction that increasing women's representation at higher managerial levels will positively impact women's careers at lower managerial levels, recent studies provide inconsistent evidence, leading to claims that it may be spurious. Due to data limitation, most prior trickle‐down research has explored just two managerial levels—board and executives—making it difficult to separate a trickle‐down effect from external pressures (e.g., shareholders, law) or internal factors (e.g., organizational culture) that may cause it. Furthermore, prior research does not adequately account for women's representation in managerial pipelines, a crucial source of potential managerial talent. To address these concerns, we analyze Australian workplace panel data (2014–2020) that allow for a more robust test of the trickle‐down effect than previously examined. Our results support the trickle‐down effect across multiple managerial levels below the board level, independent of managerial pipeline effects. The trickle‐down and pipeline effects were only observed for positions immediately above and below each managerial level. This highlights the proximity of positions within management hierarchies where the in‐group preference and women's direct advocacy for other women are most likely to occur. Our study suggests that simply appointing more women to top positions, such as boards, while beneficial, is not enough to address gender inequality in management meaningfully. We recommend that rather than focusing on gender representation at the top, organizations should set gender diversity goals and monitor progress at all managerial levels. We conclude with implications for theory, practice, and future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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10. Sex dependence of postoperative pulmonary complications – A post hoc unmatched and matched analysis of LAS VEGAS

Author

Kroell, Wolfgang, Metzler, Helfried, Struber, Gerd, Wegscheider, Thomas, Gombotz, Hans, Hiesmayr, Michael, Schmid, Werner, Urbanek, Bernhard, Kahn, David, Momeni, Mona, Pospiech, Audrey, Lois, Fernande, Forget, Patrice, Grosu, Irina, Poelaert, Jan, van Mossevelde, Veerle, van Malderen, Marie-Claire, Dylst, Dimitri, van Melkebeek, Jeroen, Beran, Maud, de Hert, Stefan, De Baerdemaeker, Luc, Heyse, Bjorn, Van Limmen, Jurgen, Wyffels, Piet, Jacobs, Tom, Roels, Nathalie, De Bruyne, Ann, van de Velde, Stijn, Leva, Brigitte, Damster, Sandrine, Plichon, Benoit, Juros-Zovko, Marina, Djonoviċ-Omanoviċ, Dejana, Pernar, Selma, Zunic, Josip, Miskovic, Petar, Zilic, Antonio, Kvolik, Slavica, Ivic, Dubravka, Azenic-Venzera, Darija, Skiljic, Sonja, Vinkovic, Hrvoje, Oputric, Ivana, Juricic, Kazimir, Frkovic, Vedran, Kopic, Jasminka, Mirkovic, Ivan, Karanovic, Nenad, Carev, Mladen, Dropulic, Natasa, Saric, Jadranka Pavicic, Erceg, Gorjana, Dvorscak, Matea Bogdanovic, Mazul-Sunko, Branka, Pavicic, Anna Marija, Goranovic, Tanja, Maldini, Branka, Radocaj, Tomislav, Gavranovic, Zeljka, Mladic-Batinica, Inga, Sehovic, Mirna, Stourac, Petr, Harazim, Hana, Smekalova, Olga, Kosinova, Martina, Kolacek, Tomas, Hudacek, Kamil, Drab, Michal, Brujevic, Jan, Vitkova, Katerina, Jirmanova, Katerina, Volfova, Ivana, Dzurnakova, Paula, Liskova, Katarina, Dudas, Radovan, Filipsky, Radek, el Kafrawy, Samir, Abdelwahab, Hisham Hosny, Metwally, Tarek, Abdel-Razek, Ahmed, El-Shaarawy, Ahmed Mostafa, Hasan, Wael Fathy, Ahmed, Ahmed Gouda, Yassin, Hany, Magdy, Mohamed, Abdelhady, Mahdy, Mahran, Mohamed, Herodes, Eiko, Kivik, Peeter, Oganjan, Juri, Aun, Annika, Sormus, Alar, Sarapuu, Kaili, Mall, Merilin, Karjagin, Juri, Futier, Emmanuel, Petit, Antoine, Gerard, Adeline, Marret, Emmanuel, Solier, Marc, Jaber, Samir, Prades, Albert, Krassler, Jens, Merzky, Simone, de Abreu, Marcel Gama, Uhlig, Christopher, Kiss, Thomas, Bundy, Anette, Bluth, Thomas, Gueldner, Andreas, Spieth, Peter, Scharffenberg, Martin, Thiem, Denny Tran, Koch, Thea, Treschan, Tanja, Schaefer, Maximilian, Bastin, Bea, Geib, Johann, Weiss, Martin, Kienbaum, Peter, Pannen, Benedikt, Gottschalk, Andre, Konrad, Mirja, Westerheide, Diana, Schwerdtfeger, Ben, Wrigge, Hermann, Simon, Philipp, Reske, Andreas, Nestler, Christian, Valsamidis, Dimitrios, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Antholopoulos, Georgios, Andreou, Antonis, Karapanos, Dimitris, Theodoraki, Kassiani, Gkiokas, Georgios, Tasoulis, Marios-Konstantinos, Sidiropoulou, Tatiana, Zafeiropoulou, Foteini, Florou, Panagiota, Pandazi, Aggeliki, Tsaousi, Georgia, Nouris, Christos, Pourzitaki, Chryssa, Bystritski, Dmitri, Pizov, Reuven, Eden, Arieh, Pesce, Caterina Valeria, Campanile, Annamaria, Marrella, Antonella, Grasso, Salvatore, De Michele, Michele, Bona, Francesco, Giacoletto, Gianmarco, Sardo, Elena, Sottosanti, Luigi Giancarlo Vicari, Solca, Maurizio, Volta, Carlo Alberto, Spadaro, Savino, Verri, Marco, Ragazzi, Riccardo, Zoppellari, Roberto, Cinnella, Gilda, Raimondo, Pasquale, La Bella, Daniela, Mirabella, Lucia, D'antini, Davide, Pelosi, Paolo, Molin, Alexandre, Brunetti, Iole, Gratarola, Angelo, Pellerano, Giulia, Sileo, Rosanna, Pezzatto, Stefano, Montagnani, Luca, Pasin, Laura, Landoni, Giovanni, Zangrillo, Alberto, Beretta, Luigi, Di Parma, Ambra Licia, Tarzia, Valentina, Dossi, Roberto, Sassone, Marta Eugenia, Sances, Daniele, Tredici, Stefano, Spano, Gianluca, Castellani, Gianluca, Delunas, Luigi, Peradze, Sopio, Venturino, Marco, Arpino, Ines, Sher, Sara, Tommasino, Concezione, Rapido, Francesca, Morelli, Paola, Vargas, Maria, Servillo, Giuseppe, Cortegiani, Andrea, Raineri, Santi Maurizio, Montalto, Francesca, Russotto, Vincenzo, Giarratano, Antonino, Baciarello, Marco, Generali, Michela, Cerati, Giorgia, Leykin, Yigal, Bressan, Filippo, Bartolini, Vittoria, Zamidei, Lucia, Brazzi, Luca, Liperi, Corrado, Sales, Gabriele, Pistidda, Laura, Severgnini, Paolo, Brugnoni, Elisa, Musella, Giuseppe, Bacuzzi, Alessandro, Muhardri, Dalip, Gecaj-Gashi, Agreta, Sada, Fatos, Bytyqi, Adem, Karbonskiene, Aurika, Aukstakalniene, Ruta, Teberaite, Zivile, Salciute, Erika, Tikuisis, Renatas, Miliauskas, Povilas, Jurate, Sipylaite, Kontrimaviciute, Egle, Tomkute, Gabija, Xuereb, John, Bezzina, Maureen, Borg, Francis Joseph, Hemmes, Sabrine, Schultz, Marcus, Hollmann, Markus, Wiersma, Irene, Binnekade, Jan, Bos, Lieuwe, Nijbroek, Sunny, Boer, Christa, Duvekot, Anne, ’t Veld, Bas in, Werger, Alice, Dennesen, Paul, Severijns, Charlotte, De Jong, Jasper, Hering, Jens, van Beek, Rienk, Ivars, Stefan, Jammer, Ib, Breidablik, Alena, Hodt, Katharina Skirstad, Fjellanger, Frode, Avalos, Manuel Vico, Mellin-Olsen, Jannicke, Andersson, Elisabeth, Shafi-Kabiri, Amir, Molina, Ruby, Wutai, Stanley, Morais, Erick, Tareco, Glória, Ferreira, Daniel, Amaral, Joana, de Lurdes Goncalves Castro, Maria, Cadilha, Susana, Appleton, Sofia, Parente, Suzana, Correia, Mariana, Martins, Diogo, Monteirosa, Angela, Ricardo, Ana, Rodrigues, Sara, Horhota, Lucian, Grintescu, Ioana Marina, Mirea, Liliana, Grintescu, Ioana Cristina, Corneci, Dan, Negoita, Silvius, Dutu, Madalina, Garotescu, Ioana Popescu, Filipescu, Daniela, Prodan, Alexandru Bogdan, Droc, Gabriela, Fota, Ruxandra, Popescu, Mihai, Tomescu, Dana, Petcu, Ana Maria, Tudoroiu, Marian Irinel, Moise, Alida, Guran, Catalin-Traian, Gherghina, Iorel, Costea, Dan, Cindea, Iulia, Copotoiu, Sanda-Maria, Copotoiu, Ruxandra, Barsan, Victoria, Tolcser, Zsolt, Riciu, Magda, Moldovan, Septimiu Gheorghe, Veres, Mihaly, Gritsan, Alexey, Kapkan, Tatyana, Gritsan, Galina, Korolkov, Oleg, Kulikov, Alexander, Lubnin, Andrey, Ovezov, Alexey, Prokoshev, Pavel, Lugovoy, Alexander, Anipchenko, Natalia, Babayants, Andrey, Komissarova, Irina, Zalina, Karginova, Likhvantsev, Valery, Fedorov, Sergei, Lazukic, Aleksandra, Pejakovic, Jasmina, Mihajlovic, Dunja, Kusnierikova, Zuzana, Zelinkova, Maria, Bruncakova, Katarina, Polakovicova, Lenka, Sobona, Villiam, Novak-Supe, Barbka, Pekle-Golez, Ana, Jovanov, Miroljub, Strazisar, Branka, Markovic-Bozic, Jasmina, Novak-Jankovic, Vesna, Voje, Minca, Grynyuk, Andriy, Kostadinov, Ivan, Spindler-Vesel, Alenka, Moral, Victoria, Unzueta, Mari Carmen, Puigbo, Carlos, Fava, Josep, Canet, Jaume, Moret, Enrique, Nunez, Mónica Rodriguez, Sendra, Mar, Brunelli, Andrea, Rodenas, Frederic, Monedero, Pablo, Martinezv, Francisco Hidalgo, Temino, Maria Jose Yepes, Simon, Antonio Martínez, de Abajo Larriba, Ana, Lisi, Alberto, Perez, Gisela, Martinez, Raquel, Granell, Manuel, Vivo, Jose Tatay, Ruiz, Cristina Saiz, de Andrés Ibañez, Jose Antonio, Pastor, Ernesto, Soro, Marina, Ferrando, Carlos, Defez, Mario, Alvares-Santullano, Cesar Aldecoa, Perez, Rocio, Rico, Jesus, Jawad, Monir, Saeed, Yousif, Gillberg, Lars, Hedenstierma, Göran, Bengisun, Zuleyha Kazak, Kazbek, Baturay Kansu, Coskunfirat, Nesil, Boztug, Neval, Sanli, Suat, Yilmaz, Murat, Hadimioglu, Necmiye, Senturk, Nuzhet Mert, Camci, Emre, Kucukgoncu, Semra, Sungur, Zerrin, Sivrikoz, Nukhet, Ozgen, Serpil Ustalar, Toraman, Fevzi, Selvi, Onur, Senturk, Ozgur, Yildiz, Mine, Kuvaki, Bahar, Gunenc, Ferim, Kucukguclu, Semih, Ozbilgin, Şule, Maral, Jale, Canli, Seyda, Arun, Oguzhan, Saltali, Ali, Aydogan, Eyup, Akgun, Fatma Nur, Sanlikarip, Ceren, Karaman, Fatma Mine, Mazur, Andriy, Vorotyntsev, Sergiy, Rousseau, Guy, Barrett, Colin, Stancombe, Lucia, Shelley, Ben, Scholes, Helen, Limb, James, Rafi, Amir, Wayman, Lisa, Deane, Jill, Rogerson, David, Williams, John, Yates, Susan, Rogers, Elaine, Pulletz, Mark, Moreton, Sarah, Jones, Stephanie, Venkatesh, Suresh, Burton, Maudrian, Brown, Lucy, Goodall, Cait, Rucklidge, Matthew, Fuller, Debbie, Nadolski, Maria, Kusre, Sandeep, Lundberg, Michael, Everett, Lynn, Nutt, Helen, Zuleika, Maka, Carvalho, Peter, Clements, Deborah, Creagh-Brown, Ben, Watt, Philip, Raymode, Parizade, Pearse, Rupert, Mohr, Otto, Raj, Ashok, Creary, Thais, Chishti, Ahmed, Bell, Andrea, Higham, Charley, Cain, Alistair, Gibb, Sarah, Mowat, Stephen, Franklin, Danielle, West, Claire, Minto, Gary, Boyd, Nicholas, Mills, Gary, Calton, Emily, Walker, Rachel, Mackenzie, Felicity, Ellison, Branwen, Roberts, Helen, Chikungwa, Moses, Jackson, Clare, Donovan, Andrew, Foot, Jayne, Homan, Elizabeth, Montgomery, Jane, Portch, David, Mercer, Pauline, Palmer, Janet, Paddle, Jonathan, Fouracres, Anna, Datson, Amanda, Andrew, Alyson, Welch, Leanne, Rose, Alastair, Varma, Sandeep, Simeson, Karen, Rambhatla, Mrutyunjaya, Susarla, Jaysimha, Marri, Sudhakar, Kodaganallur, Krishnan, Das, Ashok, Algarsamy, Shivarajan, Colley, Julie, Davies, Simon, Szewczyk, Margaret, Smith, Thomas, Fernandez-Bustamante, Ana, Luzier, Elizabeth, Almagro, Angela, Melo, Marcos Vidal, Fernando, Luiz, Sulemanji, Demet, Sprung, Juraj, Weingarten, Toby, Kor, Daryl, Scavonetto, Federica, Tze, Yeo, Vermeulen, Tom D., Hol, Liselotte, Swart, Pien, Mills, Gary H., Putensen, Christian, Serpa Neto, Ary, Vidal Melo, Marcos F., Hollmann, Markus W., Gama de Abreu, Marcelo, Schultz, Marcus J., Hemmes, Sabrine N., and van Meenen, David M.

Published
2024
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26. What works?

Author

Social Policy, Research and Evaluation Conference, Wellington, Nov 2004 and Roberts, Helen

Published
2005

35. Perspectives of trauma informed care in public services : a framework synthesis and analysis

Author

Roberts, Helen

Abstract

Introduction: There has been an increased focus over the past thirty years on recognising and responding to trauma. This has led to a shift towards developing trauma-informed policies and approaches across service settings, systems and jurisdictions in Western counties. Trauma Informed Care (TIC) has been found to improve service user experiences, enhance working relationships for staff and increase job satisfaction. This review aimed to synthesise stakeholders' perspectives on the implementation of TIC across public services, as well as identifying barriers and facilitators. Method: Six databases (EMBASE, PubMed (MEDLINE), PsycArticles, PsycINFO, Scopus and Sociological Abstracts) were electronically searched in September 2020. Reference lists were searched, and forward citation searches were conducted on the included papers. Results were analysed utilising best-fit framework synthesis, using the NHS Education for Scotland TIC framework. Results: 1589 records were screened, and twelve papers were eligible for inclusion in the review and quality appraisal. Synthesis identified that stakeholders' perspectives were captured by the TIC principles of safety, trust, collaboration, choice and empowerment. Multi-level community and systemic barriers were identified, including a lack of support for staff and vicarious trauma. Positive relationships, leadership, a commitment to long-term training and staff support were highlighted as key facilitators of TIC across services. 10 Conclusions: Stakeholders' perspectives reflected the principles of TIC, with individuals relating their experiences to the five core principles outlined above. Complex interacting factors were highlighted, including how professionals' prior training and systemic stressors can contradict a trauma-informed approach. Further research into TIC is needed, particularly focusing on client perspectives, TIC applied to staff and experiences of TIC across diverse cultures.

Published
2021
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38. The Cancer Research UK Stratified Medicine Programme as a model for delivering personalised cancer care

Author

Cerone, Maria Antonietta, Mills, Tara C., Sharpe, Rowena, McBride, David, MacDonald, Moira, MacMahon, Suzanne, Mugalaasi, Hood, Rehal, Pauline, Rettino, Alessandro, Roberts, Helen, Ross, Mark, White, Donald Edward, Peden, John, Rawlinson, Janette, Ho, Steffan N., Hollingsworth, Simon, Popat, Sanjay, Middleton, Gary, Johnson, Peter, and Swanton, Charles

Published
2023
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40. Wind instruments in provincial English cathedrals, c. 1580-c. 1680 : towards a performance practice

Author

Roberts, Helen, Savan, Jamie, and Churnside, Carrie

Subjects
CAH20-02-02 - theology and religious studies, CAH25-02-02 - music, V600 Theology and Religious studies, W300 Music
Abstract

Despite the long-acknowledged and widespread association of wind instrumentalists with English cathedrals in the late sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, and the continued performance tradition enjoyed by sacred vocal music of the period, the performance practices that may have been employed by English cathedral wind bands during this time have been strangely neglected in the literature until now. This thesis seeks to address this lacuna through case studies focussing on Durham, Exeter and Canterbury Cathedrals, covering the period from around 1580, when instrumentalists first begin appearing in cathedral muniments, until around 1680, when the wind band ceased to be a regular feature of the English cathedral soundscape. Employing a combination of traditional musicological and archival research and bespoke practice-led research methodologies, a range of possible performance solutions are proposed for the modern instrumentalist wishing to approach this repertoire from an historically-informed perspective, whilst at the same time providing much needed historical and social context for the practices and people involved.

Published
2020

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