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Although the need for urgent climate change action is clear, insights about how to make better climate risk management decisions are limited. While significant attention from behavioral researchers has focused on choice architecture, we argue that many of the contexts for addressing climate risks require increased attention to the needs of a deliberative and dynamic choice environment. A key facet of this kind of decision is the need for decision-makers and stakeholders to identify and balance conflicting economic, social and environmental objectives. This recognition of difficult, context-specific trade-offs highlights the need for structuring the decision-making process so that objectives are clearly articulated and prioritized. Equally, policy analyses and deliberations must effectively link priorities with climate risk management options. This restructuring of decision-making about climate change calls for more than a nudge. Scientific and technical efforts must be redirected to help stakeholders and decision-makers better understand the diverse implications of climate change management alternatives and to become better equipped to take actions commensurate with the urgency of the problem.

Determinations of significance play a pivotal role in environmental impact assessments because they point decision makers to the predicted effects of an action most deserving of attention and further study. Impact predictions are always subject to uncertainty because they rely on estimates of future consequences. Yet uncertainty is often neglected or treated in a perfunctory manner as part of the characterization, evaluation, and communication of anticipated consequences and their significance. Proposals to construct fossil fuel pipelines in North America provide a highly visible example; casual treatment of how uncertainty affects significance determinations has resulted in poorly informed stakeholders, frustrated industry proponents, and inconsistent choices on the part of public decision makers. Using environmental assessments for recent pipeline proposals as examples, we highlight five ways in which uncertainty is often neglected when determining impact significance and suggest that a mix of known methods, new guidelines, and appropriate oversight could greatly improve current practices.

Social scientists and community advocates have expressed concerns that many social and cultural impacts important to citizens are given insufficient weight by decision makers in public policy decision-making. In two large cross-sectional surveys, we examined public perceptions of a range of social, cultural, health, economic, and environmental impacts. Findings suggest that valued impacts are perceived through an initial lens that highlights both tangibility (how difficult it is to understand, observe, and make changes to an impact) and scope (how broadly an impact applies). Valued impacts thought to be less tangible and narrower in scope were perceived to have less support by both decision makers and the public. Nearly every valued impact was perceived to have more support from the public than from decision makers, with the exception of three economic considerations (revenues, profits, and costs). The results also demonstrate that many valued impacts do not fit neatly into the single-category distinctions typically used as part of impact assessments and cost–benefit analyses. We provide recommendations for practitioners and suggest ways that these results can foster improvements to the quality and defensibility of risk and impact assessments.

Shifts in species ranges and viability introduced by climate change are creating difficult challenges for scientists and citizens. In many cases, the seriousness of threats to endangered species is forcing policy makers and resource managers to consider novel species protection strategies, either to complement or replace existing conservation approaches. This paper seeks to deepen understanding of public views on a range of conventional and novel management initiatives designed to protect species under the threat of extinction, based on results from an online survey conducted in the USA and Canada. Participants first selected a preferred intervention strategy and were then presented with a series of scenarios, focused on protection of the endangered bristlecone pine, which allowed them to explore their willingness to shift to a new policy regime with a better chance of protecting the species. The use of a decision-pathways survey design allowed us to examine the strength of the nudge required to elicit a shift in their position and the reasoning underlying selection of a preferred management alternative. Results generally support the conclusion that, so long as a clear rationale is provided, there exists surprisingly widespread support for the adoption of novel management approaches to save threatened or endangered species even if this requires more intensive genetic and transformational interventions that are costly or ethically challenging.

Novel management interventions intended to mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly being considered by scientists and practitioners. However, resistance to more transformative interventions remains common across both specialist and lay communities and is generally assumed to be strongly entrenched. We used a decision-pathways survey of the public in Canada and the United States (n = 1490) to test two propositions relating to climate-motivated interventions for conservation: most public groups are uncomfortable with interventionist options for conserving biodiversity and given the strong values basis for preferences regarding biodiversity and natural systems more broadly, people are unlikely to change their minds. Our pathways design tested and retested levels of comfort with interventions for forest ecosystems at three different points in the survey. Comfort was reexamined given different nudges (including new information from trusted experts) and in reference to a particular species (bristlecone pine [Pinus longaeva]). In contrast with expectations of public unease, baseline levels of public comfort with climate interventions in forests was moderately high (46% comfortable) and increased further when respondents were given new information and the opportunity to change their choice after consideration of a particular species. People who were initially comfortable with interventions tended to remain so (79%), whereas 42% of those who were initially uncomfortable and 40% of those who were uncertain shifted to comfortable by the end of the survey. In short and across questions, comfort levels with interventions were high, and where discomfort or uncertainty existed, such positions did not appear to be strongly held. We argue that a new decision logic, one based on anthropogenic responsibility, is beginning to replace a default reluctance to intervene with nature.Zonas de Comodidad Social ante las Decisiones de Conservación Transformadoras en un Clima Cambiante Resumen Los científicos y los practicantes de la conservación cada vez consideran más a las intervenciones novedosas de manejo con la intención de mitigar los impactos del cambio climático sobre la biodiversidad. Sin embargo, la resistencia a las intervenciones más transformadoras es común en especialistas y no profesionales y generalmente se asume que está fuertemente arraigada. Usamos una encuesta sobre toma de decisiones del público en Canadá y en los Estados Unidos (n = 1490) para evaluar dos propuestas relacionadas a intervenciones de conservación motivadas por el clima: la mayoría de los grupos de público están incómodos con las opciones intervencionistas para conservar la biodiversidad y dada la sólida base de valores para las preferencias con respecto a la biodiversidad y a los sistemas naturales en general, es poco probable que las personas cambien de opinión. Nuestro diseño de encuesta analizó y reanalizó los niveles de comodidad con respecto a las intervenciones para los ecosistemas boscosos en tres puntos distintos dentro del estudio. La comodidad fue reexaminada con diferentes impulsos (incluyendo información nueva proveniente de expertos confiables) y en referencia a una especie particular (Pinus longaeva). Contrario a las expectativas de malestar del público, los niveles de línea base de la comodidad del público frente a las intervenciones climáticas en los bosques fueron moderadamente altos (46% de comodidad) e incrementaron cuando a los respondientes se les proporcionó información nueva y la oportunidad de cambiar su elección después de considerar a una especie particular. Las personas que al inicio estaban cómodas con las intervenciones tendieron a permanecer así (79%), mientras que el 42% de aquellos que estuvieron incómodos inicialmente y el 40% de aquellos que estuvieron inseguros cambiaron a estar cómodos para el final del estudio. En resumen, los niveles de comodidad frente a las intervenciones fueron elevados, y cuando existieron malestar o incertidumbre, dichas posiciones no parecieron mantenerse con fuerza. Argumentamos que una lógica de decisión basada en la responsabilidad antropogénica está comenzando a reemplazar una renuencia predeterminada a intervenir en la naturaleza.

The adoption of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies at a scale sufficient to draw down carbon emissions will require both individual and collective decisions that happen over time in different locations to enable a massive scale-up. Members of the public and other decision-makers have not yet formed strong attitudes, beliefs and preferences about most of the individual CDR technologies or taken positions on policy mechanisms and tax-payer support for CDR. Much of the current discourse among scientists, policy analysts and policy-makers about CDR implicitly assumes that decision-makers will exhibit unbiased, rational behaviour that weighs the costs and benefits of CDR. In this paper, we review behavioural decision theory and discuss how public reactions to CDR will be different from and more complex than that implied by rational choice theory. Given that people do not form attitudes and opinions in a vacuum, we outline how fundamental social normative principles shape important intergroup, intragroup and social network processes that influence support for or opposition to CDR technologies. We also point to key insights that may help stakeholders craft public outreach strategies that anticipate the nuances of how people evaluate the risks and benefits of CDR approaches. Finally, we outline critical research questions to understand the behavioural components of CDR to plan for an emerging public response.

Decisions to intervene in a foreign country to prevent genocide and mass atrocities are among the most challenging and controversial choices facing national leaders. Drawing on techniques from decision analysis, psychology, and negotiation analysis, we propose a structured approach to these difficult choices that can provide policy makers with additional insight, consistency, efficiency, and defensibility. We propose the use of a values-based framework to clarify the key elements of these complex choices and to provide a consistent structure for comparison of the likely benefits, risks, and tradeoffs associated with alternative intervention strategies. Results from a workshop involving Ambassadors and experienced policy makers provide a first test of this new method for clarifying intervention choices. A decision-aiding framework is shown to improve the clarity and relevance of intervention deliberations, laying the groundwork for a more comprehensive and clearer understanding of the threats and opportunities associated with various intervention options.

Impact evaluations in North America are required to examine not only the economic, environmental, and health effects of activities but also their social and cultural impacts. In practice, however, many important social and cultural effects are often neglected as part of court-sponsored negotiations and decisions by government regulators because they are not represented in terms of economic markets, specific to the decision context, or lack standard measures. This omission is especially significant when determining compensation for Indigenous communities due to restrictions placed on their fundamental connection to traditional lands and the negative impacts on language, governance, social systems, and well-being that rely on the maintenance of shared, place-based practices. We propose a comprehensive, multiattribute approach for estimating compensation to Indigenous communities and summarize results from a case-study application in two Indigenous Dene Nations. In a final section we discuss the broader implications of adopting a more accurate depiction of impacts and a consistent, principles-based approach to calculating compensation payments that is more respectful of the losses experienced over time by many Indigenous communities as the result of encroachments onto their traditional territories.

As the use of solar systems as an alternate source of energy increases, so too does the volume of waste from decommissioned systems. While several options have been suggested as solutions for the end of life of solar systems in terms of their component elements in urban regions, there is little discussion of managing waste arising in regional areas where volumes are often below necessary thresholds. This paper discusses why solar energy systems in Australia’s Northern Territory are being removed and how they are disposed of. Results suggest that there are several social and economic reasons for their removal, as it is not just a matter of failure to generate electric power. Since solar energy generation waste is a new problem, there are few or no social mechanisms in place to manage this waste. The results of this study highlight the need for addressing this gap. This paper inquires into, and attempts to formulate an early definition of this newly emergent social problem, conceptualising it as a sociomaterial issue.

In this article, we consider a novel criterion for evaluating representations of uncertainty ranges, namely, the extent to which a representation enhances motivated reasoning. In two studies, we show that perceptions of the distribution underlying ambiguous numerical ranges are affected by the motivations and worldviews of end users. This motivated reasoning effect remained after controlling for objective numeracy and fluid intelligence but was attenuated when the correct interpretation was made clear. We suggest that analysts and communicators explicitly consider the potential for motivated evaluation when evaluating uncertainty displays.

Values-based indicators of risks to Indigenous health have the potential to improve the accuracy and quality of a wide range of decisions affecting Native lands and cultures. Current health impact assessment approaches often omit important health priorities rooted in the history, social structures, and cultural context of Indigenous communities. Insights and methods from the decision sciences can be used to develop more culturally appropriate and context-relevant health indicators that can articulate and track changes to important dimensions of Indigenous health. Identifying and addressing priority cultural, social, economic, and environmental contributors to the health of Indigenous communities will help to generate better project alternatives and foster more responsive choices.

Numerical uncertainty ranges are often used to convey the precision of a forecast. In three studies, we examined how users perceive the distribution underlying numerical ranges and test specific hypotheses about the display characteristics that affect these perceptions. We discuss five primary conclusions from these studies: (1) substantial variation exists in how people perceive the distribution underlying numerical ranges; (2) distributional perceptions appear similar whether the uncertain variable is a probability or an outcome; (3) the variation in distributional perceptions is due in part to individual differences in numeracy, with more numerate individuals more likely to perceive the distribution as roughly normal; (4) the variation is also due in part to the presence versus absence of common cues used to convey the correct interpretation (e.g., including a best estimate increases perceptions that the distribution is roughly normal); and (5) simple graphical representations can decrease the variance in distributional perceptions. These results point toward significant opportunities to improve uncertainty communication in climate change and other domains.

This chapter sketches a portrait of top-level decision making in the face of humanitarian crises that we believe is deeply problematic. It draws from research on values and preferences to explore what may be a systematic bias leading to the discounting of humanitarian objectives in major foreign-policy decisions. The chapter points to the need for systematic structuring and assessment of objectives and values in ways. It argues that the prominence effect may underlie the apparent discrepancy between expressed and revealed values regarding whether or not to act to protect large numbers of civilian lives under attack in foreign countries. They hypothesizes that national security is the more prominent dimension in the context of deliberations among high-level government policy makers. Decision making characterization applies to most decisions concerning genocide prevention but it also applies to a host of other tough public policy choices facing governments such as responses to climate change, storage of high-level nuclear wastes, or prevention of terrorism.

The responsible development of new nanomaterials and nano-enabled products requires that potential risks are understood and managed before harms occur. Although quantitative and predictive tools for anticipating human health and environmental risk are in early stages of development, there is a clear need for screening methodologies to inform decision making related to nanomaterial risk management in regulatory agencies and industry. This paper presents the results of a two-day workshop with nanotechnology experts aimed at developing a risk-screening framework for nanomaterials. Drawing upon expertise in nanotoxicology, human exposure, environmental fate and transport, and structured decision making, participants developed a decision support framework relating key nanomaterial physicochemical and product characteristics to important hazard and exposure indicators. Application of the preliminary nano-risk-screening tool (NRST) to several test cases illustrates the utility of the approach for both identifying nanomaterial characteristics that drive risks and for highlighting opportunities to redesign products to minimize risks. This framework for aiding risk managers’ decisions under uncertainty provides the foundation for the development of a transparent and adaptable screening tool that can inform the management of potential risks.

For more than half a century, research and practice in international development has focused on improving the quality of life of people living in developing regions of the world. Recently, researchers, practitioners, and policy makers have recognized the need to blend insights from experts and community stakeholders in development decisions. Research in the decision sciences tells us that these kinds of multiparty and multiattribute decisions are extremely challenging. However, recent experience using structured decision-making (SDM) approaches suggests that the quality of both expert and stakeholder input, and resulting decisions, can be improved by ensuring that people address a series of basic principles relating to identifying objectives and their associated attributes, estimating the consequences of proposed actions, and directly confronting trade-offs that arise during the evaluation of management alternatives. In this paper, we provide an overview of SDM and then discuss a research initiative aimed at applying the approach to a pressing international development problem in rural Costa Rica: management of the lucrative but also environmentally destructive pineapple industry. The objectives of this research were twofold: First, we sought to help inform policy decisions by eliciting land management preferences regarding the pineapple industry from people living in communities surrounding plantations. Second, we evaluated the effectiveness of the SDM approach in a developing community context.

The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often contro- versial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision-aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science-based problem, we suggest that a clear decision-making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers' choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade-offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision- focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning.

Supporting Traditional African Mediators Project (STAMP) is a program that has been working with African/Australian community leaders to prevent family violence. This program has been carefully developed through building long-term relationships, transparency and openness with an emphasis on navigating the intersection of cultures in order to enhance understanding and collaboration around family violence prevention. The training program has successfully engaged both men and women and enhanced participation, cross cultural learning and positive outcomes by creating an open and safe environment. The paper highlights the knowledge gained by participants and project workers and explores the challenges experienced by people who emigrate from other countries when responding to family conflict in an Australian context. It introduces the formation of a support group Marula that has added value and support to Traditional African Mediators in their work to address family violence within their communities.

The power of visual imagery is well known, enshrined in such familiar sayings as "seeing is believing" and "a picture is worth a thousand words." Iconic photos stir our emotions and transform our perspectives about life and the world in which we live. On September 2, 2015, photographs of a young Syrian child, Aylan Kurdi, lying face-down on a Turkish beach, filled the front pages of newspapers worldwide. These images brought much-needed attention to the Syrian war that had resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and created millions of refugees. Here we present behavioral data demonstrating that, in this case, an iconic photo of a single child had more impact than statistical reports of hundreds of thousands of deaths. People who had been unmoved by the relentlessly rising death toll in Syria suddenly appeared to care much more after having seen Aylans photograph; however, this newly created empathy waned rather quickly. We briefly examine the psychological processes underlying these findings, discuss some of their policy implications, and reflect on the lessons they provide about the challenges to effective intervention in the face of mass threats to human well-being. Funding Agencies|US National Science Foundation [1227729, 1427414]; Riksbankens Jubileumsfond; Swedish Research Council

How health is defined and assessed is a priority concern for Indigenous peoples due to considerable health risks faced from environmental impacts to homelands, and because what is “at risk” is often determined without their input or approval. Many health assessments by government agencies, industry, and researchers from outside the communities fail to include Indigenous definitions of health and omit basic methodological guidance on how to evaluate Indigenous health, thus compromising the quality and consistency of results. Native Coast Salish communities (Washington State, USA) developed and pilot-tested a set of Indigenous Health Indicators (IHI) that reflect non-physiological aspects of health (community connection, natural resources security, cultural use, education, self-determination, resilience) on a community scale, using constructed measures that allow for concerns and priorities to be clearly articulated without releasing proprietary knowledge. Based on initial results from pilot-tests of the IHI with the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community (Washington State, USA), we argue that incorporation of IHIs into health assessments will provide a more comprehensive understanding of Indigenous health concerns, and assist Indigenous peoples to control their own health evaluations.

This article demonstrates a structured and collaborative approach to decision-making in the context of adaptive management experiments, using a case study involving the restoration of a hydrological regime in a regulated river in western Canada. It provides a framework based on principles of decision analysis for structuring difficult multi-attribute decisions and building the trust and technical capacity needed to implement them. Participants included ecologists and fisheries biologists, government regulators, electric utility employees, and representatives of aboriginal communities. The case study demonstrates a values-based approach to implementing adaptive management that addresses some of the long-standing difficulties associated with integrating adaptive management into restoration decisions. It highlights practical methods for incorporating participants' values concerned with learning, cultural quality, and stewardship as part of developing a decision-making and monitoring framework for restoration initiatives. It also provides an example of how to implement principles of meaningful consultation in a restoration context, with emphasis on ensuring that all voices and concerns are heard and meaningfully incorporated. Participants have adopted the framework as a model to guide future collaborative decision-making processes involving Aboriginal communities, regulatory agencies, and other parties.

In many decision contexts, there is uncertainty in the assessed probabilities and expected consequences of different actions. The fundamental goal for information providers is to present uncertainty in a way that is not overly complicated, yet sufficiently detailed to prompt decision-makers to think about the implications of this uncertainty for the decision at hand. In two experiments, we assess the pros and cons of providing an evaluative structure to facilitate the comprehension and use of uncertainty information and explore whether people who vary in numeracy perceive and use uncertainty in different ways. Participants were presented with scenarios and summary tables describing the anticipated consequences of different environmental-management actions. Our results suggest that different uncertainty formats may lead people to think in particular ways. Laypeople had an easier time understanding the general concept of uncertainty when an evaluative label was presented (e.g. uncertainty is High or Low). H...

We develop and apply a judgment-based approach to selecting robust alternatives, which are defined here as reasonably likely to achieve objectives, over a range of uncertainties. The intent is to develop an approach that is more practical in terms of data and analysis requirements than current approaches, informed by the literature and experience with probability elicitation and judgmental forecasting. The context involves decisions about managing forest lands that have been severely affected by mountain pine beetles in British Columbia, a pest infestation that is climate-exacerbated. A forest management decision was developed as the basis for the context, objectives, and alternatives for land management actions, to frame and condition the judgments. A wide range of climate forecasts, taken to represent the 10-90% levels on cumulative distributions for future climate, were developed to condition judgments. An elicitation instrument was developed, tested, and revised to serve as the basis for eliciting probabilistic three-point distributions regarding the performance of selected alternatives, over a set of relevant objectives, in the short and long term. The elicitations were conducted in a workshop comprising 14 regional forest management specialists. We employed the concept of stochastic dominance to help identify robust alternatives. We used extensive sensitivity analysis to explore the patterns in the judgments, and also considered the preferred alternatives for each individual expert. The results show that two alternatives that are more flexible than the current policies are judged more likely to perform better than the current alternatives on average in terms of stochastic dominance. The results suggest judgmental approaches to robust decision making deserve greater attention and testing.

Many environmental and risk management decisions are made jointly by technical experts and members of the public. Frequently, their task is to select from among management alternatives whose outcomes are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. Although it is recognized that how this uncertainty is interpreted can significantly affect decision-making processes and choices, little research has examined similarities and differences between expert and public understandings of uncertainty. We present results from a web-based survey that directly compares expert and lay interpretations and understandings of different expressions of uncertainty in the context of evaluating the consequences of proposed environmental management actions. Participants responded to two hypothetical but realistic scenarios involving trade-offs between environmental and other objectives and were asked a series of questions about their comprehension of the uncertainty information, their preferred choice among the alternatives, and the associated difficulty and amount of effort. Results demonstrate that experts and laypersons tend to use presentations of numerical ranges and evaluative labels differently; interestingly, the observed differences between the two groups were not explained by differences in numeracy or concerns for the predicted environmental losses. These findings question many of the usual presumptions about how uncertainty should be presented as part of deliberative risk- and environmental-management processes.

Summary This chapter contains sections titled: The basics Some practice with decision sketching Keys to effective sketching Beyond the sketch Key messages

This paper describes a psychological phenomenon called psychic numbing that devalues lives when many are at stake and thus enables political leaders to neglect mass suffering, in violation of our professed humanitarian values. The authors argue for the need to use tools such as decision analysis to overcome this moral insensitivity and provide a more thoughtful and consistent framework within which to assess the difficult trade-offs posed by decisions involving mass atrocities.

Effective communication between doctors and their patients is essential to successful medication choices and treatments. Our interest in this exploratory paper lies in the quality of communication between doctors and patients: what both parties seek to explain and what they commonly understand, what opportunities and what frictions occur as a result of their respective goals, what gaps exist in their knowledge bases, and how information of different types influences health risks and medication choices. The data reported in this paper come from conversations with doctors about how they communicate with patients when discussing the benefits and risks of prescription medications, and from patients who talked with us about their concerns and the perceived quality of their communications with physicians. Overall, we were surprised by the failure of the assumed decision-making models to explain much of what we heard and observed. In response, we advance a structured decision-making framework, based on decision ...

Current United States government risk assessment and management regulations fail to consider Native American definitions of health or risk. On the invitation of the Coast Salish Swinomish Indian Tribal Community of Washington State, this study examines local meanings of health in reference to seafood where contamination of their aquatic natural resources has been found. By conducting two series of interviews with Swinomish seafood consumers, experts and elders, the study allowed interviewees to provide a more complete picture of the implications of seafood contamination alongside consumption habits within the community. Study results demonstrate that seafood represents a symbolic, deeply meaningful food source that is linked to a multi-dimensional ‘Swinomish’ concept of health. A health evaluation tool using descriptive scaled rankings was devised to clarify non-physiological health risks and impacts in relation to contaminated seafood. Findings demonstrate that food security, ceremonial use, knowledge tr...

Expert judgments are a necessary part of environmental management. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record, professional standing, and experience. We outline the limitations of conventional definitions of expertise and describe how these requirements can sometimes exclude people with useful knowledge. The frailties and biases in expert judgments can interact with the social status afforded to experts to produce judgments that are both unassailable and wrong. Several approaches may improve the rigor of expert judgments; they include widening the set of experiences and skills involved in deliberations, employing structured elicitation, and making experts more accountable through testing and training. We outline the most serious impediments to the routine deployment of these tools, and suggest protocols that would overcome these hurdles.

This paper examines the definition and implementation of community-based alternative food systems (AFS), drawing on examples from British Columbia, Canada. We seek to reframe the goals of AFS by focusing on the values associated with food production, distribution and consumption strategies. We argue that current AFS thinking suffers from an over reliance on policies reflecting single rather than multiple objectives and arguments over specific alternatives rather than a values-focused debate. A decision-focused approach, using a consequence matrix, is proposed to link people's expressed values to food policy responses and clarify trade-offs across options. This reframing should encourage new dialogue, new policy alternatives, and increased acceptance of actions supporting AFS.