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8. Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

Author

Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, and Qimin, Chai

Published
2022
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11. International shipping in a world below 2 °C

Author

Müller-Casseres, Eduardo, Leblanc, Florian, van den Berg, Maarten, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Dessens, Olivier, Naghash, Hesam, Draeger, Rebecca, Le Gallic, Thomas, Tagomori, Isabela S., Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, Emmerling, Johannes, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Giannousakis, Anastasis, Drouet, Laurent, Portugal-Pereira, Joana, de Boer, Harmen Sytze, Tsanakas, Nikolaos, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Szklo, Alexandre, Schaeffer, Roberto, Müller-Casseres, Eduardo, Leblanc, Florian, van den Berg, Maarten, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Dessens, Olivier, Naghash, Hesam, Draeger, Rebecca, Le Gallic, Thomas, Tagomori, Isabela S., Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, Emmerling, Johannes, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Giannousakis, Anastasis, Drouet, Laurent, Portugal-Pereira, Joana, de Boer, Harmen Sytze, Tsanakas, Nikolaos, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Szklo, Alexandre, and Schaeffer, Roberto

Abstract

The decarbonization of shipping has become an important policy goal. While integrated assessment models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for emissions of around 0.7 GtCO2 yr−1. Here we perform a multi-IAM analysis of international shipping and show the potential for decreasing annual emissions in the next decades, with reductions of up to 86% by 2050. This is primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels. Models that represent several potential low-carbon alternatives tend to show a deeper decarbonization of international shipping, with drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia standing out as the main substitutes for conventional maritime fuels. While our results align with the 2018 emission reduction goal of the International Maritime Organization, their compatibility with the agency’s revised target is still subject to a more definitive interpretation.

Published
2024

13. The Role of Bioenergy in Brazil's Low-Carbon Future

Author

Poggio, Matheus, primary, Império, Mariana, additional, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, additional, Schaffer, Roberto, additional, Lucena, André F.P., additional, Szklo, Alexandre, additional, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., additional, Hultman, Nathan, additional, McJeon, Haewon, additional, and Clarke, Leon, additional

Published
2023
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17. Repurposing, Co-Processing and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation - the Refining Sector Under Deep Decarbonization Scenarios: A Case Study for Brazil Using Integrated Assessment Modeling

Author

Bergman-Fonte, Clarissa, primary, Silva, Gabriela, additional, Império, Mariana, additional, Draeger, Rebecca, additional, Coutinho, Letícia, additional, Cunha, Bruno, additional, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., additional, Szklo, Alexandre, additional, and Schaeffer, Roberto, additional

Published
2023
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24. Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

Author

Environmental Sciences, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, Qimin, Chai, Environmental Sciences, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Schaeffer, Roberto, van Soest, Heleen L., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Iyer, Gokul, Jiang, Kejun, Kannavou, Maria, Macaluso, Nick, Oshiro, Ken, Park, Chan, Reedman, Luke J., Safonov, George, Shekhar, Swapnil, Siagian, Ucok, Surana, Kavita, and Qimin, Chai

Published
2022

27. Are There Synergies in the Decarbonization of Aviation and Shipping? An Integrated Perspective for the Case of Brazil

Author

Müller-Casseres, Eduardo, primary, Szklo, Alexandre, additional, Fonte, Clarissa, additional, Carvalho, Francielle, additional, Portugal-Pereira, Joana, additional, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, additional, Maia, Pedro Luiz B., additional, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., additional, Draeger, Rebecca, additional, and Schaeffer, Roberto, additional

Published
2022
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29. Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Author

Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Zakeri, Behnam, Environmental Sciences, S&C overig (HIMS, FNWI), and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Offset (computer science), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, CLIMATE TARGETS, TEMPERATURE OVERSHOOT, Natural resource economics, CLIMATE TARGETS, CLIMATE CHANGE STABILIZATION, TEMPERATURE OVERSHOOT, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Residual, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, CLIMATE CHANGE STABILIZATION, environmental social sciences, Taverne, 11. Sustainability, Co2 removal, Climate-change mitigation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global temperature, Limiting, Overshoot (population), Term (time), 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract

Current emissions scenarios include pathways that overshoot the temperature goals set out in the Paris Agreement and rely on future net negative emissions. Limiting overshoot would require near-term investment but would result in longer-term economic benefit. Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.

Published
2021

30. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Author

Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, Tavoni, Massimo, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, and Tavoni, Massimo

Abstract

Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.

Published
2021

31. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Author

Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, Tavoni, Massimo, Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2021

32. Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Author

Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Zakeri, Behnam, Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Zakeri, Behnam

Published
2021

35. Policy lessons from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America and the Caribbean Project (DDPLAC)

Author

Bataille, Chris, Waisman, Henri, Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, Briand, Yann, Pierre-Marie Aubert, Svensson, Johannes, Baron, Richard, Burkholder, Bridgette, Navizet, Damien, Dali, Slim, Lecuyer, Oskar, Meisel, Nicolas, Lallana, Francisco, Sbroiavacca, Nicolás Di, Nadal, Gustavo, Lefevre, Julien, Delgado, Ricardo, Arguello, Ricardo, Wild, Thomas B., Clarke, Leon, Godinez, Guido, Victor-Gallardo, Luis, Quiros-Tortos, Jairo, Ramos, Eunice, Howells, Mark, Usher, Will, León, Felipe De, Soria, Rafael, Villamar, Daniel, Carvajal, Pablo, Schaeffer, Roberto, Szklo, Alexandre, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Império, Mariana, Tovilla, Jordi, Buira, Daniel, Mak, Willy, Requejo, Fernando, and Collado, Mauricio

Published
2020
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36. Bio-ethylene from sugarcane as a competitiveness strategy for the Brazilian chemical industry

Author

Oliveira, Camilla C.N., Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Bhardwaj, Rajat, Worrell, Ernst, Szklo, Alexandre, Energy, Resources & Technological Change, and Energy and Resources

Subjects
bio-ethylene, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, sugarcane, BECCS, life cycle analysis, Bioengineering
Abstract

The urgency with which the world economy needs to be decarbonized could lead to the emergence of regions with the capacity to produce renewable feedstock such as biomass. The competitiveness of these regions could result from their ability to produce high value-added chemicals at the lowest cost. The biomass embodied in a chemical product could reduce carbon emissions, leading to net CO2 removal. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that bio-ethylene could make the Brazilian chemical industry more competitive. This would be achieved by applying the revenues from carbon credits associated with using ethanol and sugarcane bagasse as feedstocks for bio-ethylene production. Three production routes were compared according to their estimated cost of production in Brazil under a simplified life-cycle analysis: sugar-cane-derived ethanol to ethylene (with and without CO2 capture and storage – BECCS); bio-methanol to olefin; and conventional steam cracking of naphtha. When associated with the production of long-lasting materials, the ethanol-to-ethylene with BECCS route achieved the lower CO2 break-even price (US$75/t CO2), followed by ethanol to ethylene without BECCS (US$82/t CO2) and bio-methanol to ethylene (US$106/t CO2). Our findings highlight the advantage for the Brazilian chemical industry of implementing a national or, even better, a global carbon-pricing instrument.

Published
2020

39. Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil

Author

Lucena, André F.P., primary, Hejazi, Mohamad, additional, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, additional, Turner, Sean, additional, Köberle, Alexandre C., additional, Daenzer, Kathryn, additional, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., additional, Kober, Tom, additional, Cai, Yongxia, additional, Beach, Robert H., additional, Gernaat, David, additional, van Vuuren, Detlef P., additional, and van der Zwaan, Bob, additional

Published
2018
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40. Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil

Author

Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., van der Zwaan, Bob, Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and van der Zwaan, Bob

Abstract

This paper performs a multi-model comparison to assess strategies for adaptation to climate change impacts in hydropower generation in Brazil under two Representative Concentration Pathways. The approach used allows for evaluating the interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under low and high impact scenarios through 2050. Climate change impact projections of sixteen General Circulation Models indicate that a global high emissions trajectory scenario would likely yield more severe impacts on hydropower generation than a mitigation scenario. Adaptation modeling suggests that climate change impacts can be compensated by a wide range of alternatives, whose optimality will depend on the level of mitigation effort pursued. Our results show that climate change impacts would lead to even higher emissions in the absence of climate change mitigation policies. On the other hand, mitigation strategies to pursue lower emissions are maintained under climate change impacts, meaning that mitigation strategies are robust when faced with adaptation challenges. Mitigation efforts could yield a more diverse and less carbon intensive mix of technological options for adaptation. When analyzing investment costs to adapt to climate change impacts, in some cases mitigation can lead to a lower total investment level.

Published
2018

41. Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil

Author

Environmental Sciences, Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., van der Zwaan, Bob, Environmental Sciences, Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and van der Zwaan, Bob

Published
2018

43. Repurposing, co-processing and greenhouse gas mitigation – The Brazilian refining sector under deep decarbonization scenarios: A case study using integrated assessment modeling.

Author

Bergman-Fonte, Clarissa, Nascimento da Silva, Gabriela, Império, Mariana, Draeger, Rebecca, Coutinho, Letícia, Cunha, Bruno S.L., Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Szklo, Alexandre, and Schaeffer, Roberto

Subjects
*GREENHOUSE gas mitigation, *CARBON dioxide mitigation, *CLIMATE change mitigation, *AIRCRAFT fuels, *PETROLEUM refining, *PETROLEUM refineries
Abstract

Deep decarbonization scenarios indicate a decline in fossil oil usage in the coming decades, meaning that oil refineries must adapt. This work evaluates the refining sector in deep decarbonization pathways using Brazil as a case study. BLUES – a national integrated assessment model – is employed to investigate the evolution of the sector in mitigation scenarios until 2050. The production of feedstocks for the petrochemical industry, of fuels for the aviation and maritime sectors, and biomass co-processing are analyzed. These strategies may bring resilience to the sector. The potential for avoiding emissions in refineries' operations is also explored. Findings show that the refining sector operates at 70% and 74% of its nameplate capacity in decarbonization scenarios. These results are used as the starting point for a detailed analysis of Brazilian refineries. Results show that the employment of refineries' assets for purposes aligned with decarbonization targets, along with emissions mitigation in the sector, reduces risks of carbon lock-in and of asset stranding. To our knowledge, this is the first study that evaluates emissions mitigation in the refining sector and also uses an integrated assessment model to investigate oil refining repurposing and co-processing options in the context of decarbonization. • The refining sector is evaluated using an integrated assessment model for Brazil. • A comparison is made between business- as -usual and decarbonization scenarios. • Opportunities for refineries' assets and mitigation measures are explored. • Opportunities for refineries depend on their location and type of processing units. • Risks of carbon lock-in and asset stranding can be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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