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BACKGROUND AND AIMS Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an increasingly important cause of liver cirrhosis and subsequent complications. We retrospectively developed and validated a model to predict hepatic decompensation in patients with NAFLD and cirrhosis and compared this with currently available models. APPROACH AND RESULTS Baseline variables from an international cohort of 299 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD with compensated cirrhosis were examined to construct a model using competing risk multivariate regression and Akaike/Bayesian information criteria. Validation was performed in 244 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD cirrhosis from the United States. Prognostic accuracy was compared with the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI)-FIB-4 score using time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC) analysis. During a median follow-up of 5.6 years (range 2.4-14.1) and 5.4 years (range 1.5-13.8), hepatic decompensation occurred in 81 and 132 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the derivation cohort, independent predictors of hepatic decompensation (Aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, Bilirubin, International normalized ratio, type 2 Diabetes, and Esophageal varices) were combined into the ABIDE model. Patients with a score ≥4.1 compared with those with a score

Background & Aims Factors that affect outcomes of patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-related cirrhosis are unclear. We studied associations of type 2 diabetes, levels of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and use of antidiabetic medications with survival and liver-related events in patients with NASH and compensated cirrhosis. Methods We collected data from 299 patients with biopsy-proven NASH with Child–Pugh A cirrhosis from tertiary hospitals in Spain, Australia, Hong Kong, and Cuba, from April 1995 through December 2016. We obtained information on the presence of type 2 diabetes, level of HbA1c, and use of antidiabetic medications. Cox proportional and competing risk models were used to estimate and compare rates of transplant-free survival, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Results A total of 212 patients had type 2 diabetes at baseline and 8 of 87 patients developed diabetes during a median follow-up time of 5.1 years (range, 0.5–10.0 y). A lower proportion of patients with diabetes survived the entire follow-up period (38%) than of patients with no diabetes (81%) (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.23; 95% CI, 1.93–9.29). Higher proportions of patients with diabetes also had hepatic decompensation (51% vs 26% of patients with no diabetes; aHR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.005–4.11) and HCC (25% vs 7% of patients with no diabetes; aHR, 5.42; 95% CI, 1.74–16.80). Averaged annual HbA1c levels over time were not associated with outcomes. Metformin use over time was associated with a significant reduction in risk of death or liver transplantation (aHR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.26–0.45), hepatic decompensation (aHR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.74–0.97), and HCC (aHR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.69–0.96). Metformin significantly reduced the risk of hepatic decompensation and HCC only in subjects with HbA1c levels greater than 7.0% (aHR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95–0.99 and aHR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.43–0.94, respectively). Conclusions In an international cohort of patients with biopsy-proven NASH and Child–Pugh A cirrhosis, type 2 diabetes increased the risk of death and liver-related outcomes, including HCC. Patients who took metformin had higher rates of survival and lower rates of decompensation and HCC.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common type of chronic liver disease worldwide and includes a broad spectrum of histologic phenotypes, ranging from simple hepatic steatosis or nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). While liver biopsy is the reference gold standard for NAFLD diagnosis and staging, it has limitations due to its sampling variability, invasive nature, and high cost. Thus, there is a need for noninvasive biomarkers that are robust, reliable, and cost effective. In this study, we measured 540 lipids and amino acids in serum samples from biopsy-proven subjects with normal liver (NL), NAFL, and NASH. Using logistic regression analysis, we identified two panels of triglycerides that could first discriminate between NAFLD and NL and second between NASH and NAFL. These noninvasive tests were compared to blinded histology as a reference standard. We performed these tests in an original cohort of 467 patients with NAFLD (90 NL, 246 NAFL, and 131 NASH) that was subsequently validated in a separate cohort of 192 patients (7 NL, 109 NAFL, 76 NASH). The diagnostic performances of the validated tests showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.88 +/- 0.05, 0.94, and 0.57, respectively, for the discrimination between NAFLD and NL and 0.79 +/- 0.04, 0.70, and 0.81, respectively, for the discrimination between NASH and NAFL. When the analysis was performed excluding patients with glucose levels >136 mg/dL, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the discrimination between NASH and NAFL increased to 0.81 +/- 0.04 with sensitivity and specificity of 0.73 and 0.80, respectively. Conclusion: The assessed noninvasive lipidomic serum tests distinguish between NAFLD and NL and between NASH and NAFL with high accuracy. Supported by the National Institutes of Health Blueprint for Neuroscience Research (R01AT001576 to S.C.L., J.M.M.), Agencia Estatal de Investigacion of the Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad (SAF2014-52097R to J.M.M.), CIBER Hepatic and Digestive Diseases and Instituto de Salud Carlos III (PIE14/0003 to J.M.M.), Etorgai 2015-Gobierno Vasco (ER-2015/00015 to R.M., I.M.A., C.A., A.C.), Plan de Promocion de la Innovacion 2015-Diputacion Foral de Bizkaia (6/12/IN/2015/00131 to A.C., C.A.), National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (RO1DK81410 to A.J.S.), and Czech Ministry of Health (RVO VFN64165 to L.V.).

Little is known about the natural course of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with advanced fibrosis. We describe long-term outcomes and evaluate the effects of clinical and histologic parameters on disease progression in patients with advanced NAFLD.We conducted a multi-national study of 458 patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD with bridging fibrosis (F3, n = 159) or compensated cirrhosis (222 patients with Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores of A5 and 77 patients with scores of A6), evaluated from April 1995 through November 2013 and followed until December 2016, death, or liver transplantation at hepatology centers in Spain, Australia, Hong Kong, and Cuba. Biopsies were re-evaluated and scored; demographic, clinical, laboratory, and pathology data for each patient were collected from the time of liver biopsy collection. Cox proportional and competing risk models were used to estimate rates of transplantation-free survival and major clinical events and to identify factors associated with outcomes.During a mean follow-up time of 5.5 years (range, 2.7-8.2 years), 37 patients died, 37 received liver transplants, 88 had initial hepatic decompensation events, 41 developed hepatocellular carcinoma, 14 had vascular events, and 30 developed nonhepatic cancers. A higher proportion of patients with F3 fibrosis survived transplantation-free for 10 years (94%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 86%-99%) than of patients with cirrhosis and Child-Turcotte-Pugh A5 (74%; 95% CI, 61%-89%) or Child-Turcotte-Pugh A6 (17%; 95% CI, 6%-29%). Patients with cirrhosis were more likely than patients with F3 fibrosis to have hepatic decompensation (44%; 95% CI, 32%-60% vs 6%, 95% CI, 2%-13%) or hepatocellular carcinoma (17%; 95% CI, 8%-31% vs 2.3%, 95% CI, 1%-12%). The cumulative incidence of vascular events was higher in patients with F3 fibrosis (7%; 95% CI, 3%-18%) than cirrhosis (2%; 95% CI, 0%-6%). The cumulative incidence of nonhepatic malignancies was higher in patients with F3 fibrosis (14%; 95% CI, 7%-23%) than cirrhosis (6%; 95% CI, 2%-15%). Death or transplantation, decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma were independently associated with baseline cirrhosis and mild (33%) steatosis, whereas moderate alcohol consumption was associated with these outcomes only in patients with cirrhosis.Patients with NAFLD cirrhosis have predominantly liver-related events, whereas those with bridging fibrosis have predominantly nonhepatic cancers and vascular events.