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Psychosis is a major mental illness with first onset in young adults. The prognosis is poor in around half of the people affected, and difficult to predict. The few tools available to predict prognosis have major weaknesses which limit their use in clinical practice. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model of symptom nonremission in first-episode psychosis. Our development cohort consisted of 1027 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited between 2005 and 2010 from 14 early intervention services across the National Health Service in England. Our validation cohort consisted of 399 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited between 2006 and 2009 from a further 11 English early intervention services. The one-year nonremission rate was 52% and 54% in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a risk prediction model for nonremission, which was externally validated. The prediction model showed good discrimination C-statistic of 0.73 (0.71, 0.75) and adequate calibration with intercept alpha of 0.12 (0.02, 0.22) and slope beta of 0.98 (0.85, 1.11). Our model improved the net-benefit by 15% at a risk threshold of 50% compared to the strategy of treating all, equivalent to 15 more detected nonremitted first-episode psychosis individuals per 100 without incorrectly classifying remitted cases. Once prospectively validated, our first episode psychosis prediction model could help identify patients at increased risk of nonremission at initial clinical contact.

Human red blood cells (RBCs) have a circulatory lifespan of about four months. Under constant oxidative and mechanical stress, but devoid of organelles and deprived of biosynthetic capacity for protein renewal, RBCs undergo substantial homeostatic changes, progressive densification followed by late density reversal among others, changes assumed to have been harnessed by evolution to sustain the rheological competence of the RBCs for as long as possible. The unknown mechanisms by which this is achieved are the subject of this investigation. Each RBC traverses capillaries between 1000 and 2000 times per day, roughly one transit per minute. A dedicated Lifespan model of RBC homeostasis was developed as an extension of the RCM introduced in the previous paper to explore the cumulative patterns predicted for repetitive capillary transits over a standardized lifespan period of 120 days, using experimental data to constrain the range of acceptable model outcomes. Capillary transits were simulated by periods of elevated cell/medium volume ratios and by transient deformation-induced permeability changes attributed to PIEZO1 channel mediation as outlined in the previous paper. The first unexpected finding was that quantal density changes generated during single capillary transits cease accumulating after a few days and cannot account for the observed progressive densification of RBCs on their own, thus ruling out the quantal hypothesis. The second unexpected finding was that the documented patterns of RBC densification and late reversal could only be emulated by the implementation of a strict time-course of decay in the activities of the calcium and Na/K pumps, suggestive of a selective mechanism enabling the extended longevity of RBCs. The densification pattern over most of the circulatory lifespan was determined by calcium pump decay whereas late density reversal was shaped by the pattern of Na/K pump decay. A third finding was that both quantal changes and pump-decay regimes were necessary to account for the documented lifespan pattern, neither sufficient on their own. A fourth new finding revealed that RBCs exposed to levels of PIEZO1-medited calcium permeation above certain thresholds in the circulation could develop a pattern of early or late hyperdense collapse followed by delayed density reversal. When tested over much reduced lifespan periods the results reproduced the known circulatory fate of irreversible sickle cells, the cell subpopulation responsible for vaso-occlusion and for most of the clinical manifestations of sickle cell disease. Analysis of the results provided an insightful new understanding of the mechanisms driving the changes in RBC homeostasis during circulatory aging in health and disease., Author summary The average circulatory lifespan of human red blood cells is about four months, amounting to about 200000 capillary transits. Among the many documented age-related changes red cells experience during this long sojourn the most relevant to homeostasis control comprise progressive densification with late density reversal, decline in the activities of calcium and sodium-potassium pumps, and slow inverse changes in their original sodium and potassium contents. Early experimental results have long established the view that these changes result from the cumulative effects of myriad capillary transits. However, many aspects of this process remain inaccessible to in vivo investigation. This prompted us to attempt a modelling approach applying a dedicated extension to our original red cell model. The results relegated the cumulative mechanism to a secondary role and exposed surprising critical roles for the declining patterns of the calcium and sodium-potassium pumps, as if harnessed by evolution to extend the circulatory longevity of cells within volume ranges that enable optimal rheological performance. The mechanism the model revealed implicated complex interactions between PIEZO1, the calcium-activated potassium channel KCNN4, the anion exchanger AE1, and the calcium and sodium-potassium pumps. These studies proved the model potential for exploring red cell homeostasis in health and disease.

Human red blood cells (RBCs) have a circulatory lifespan of about four months. Under constant oxidative and mechanical stress, but devoid of organelles and deprived of biosynthetic capacity for protein renewal, RBCs undergo substantial homeostatic changes, progressive densification followed by late density reversal among others, changes assumed to have been harnessed by evolution to sustain the rheological competence of the RBCs for as long as possible. The unknown mechanisms by which this is achieved are the subject of this investigation. Each RBC traverses capillaries between 1000 and 2000 times per day, roughly one transit per minute. A dedicated Lifespan model of RBC homeostasis was developed as an extension of the RCM introduced in the previous paper to explore the cumulative patterns predicted for repetitive capillary transits over a standardized lifespan period of 120 days, using experimental data to constrain the range of acceptable model outcomes. Capillary transits were simulated by periods of elevated cell/medium volume ratios and by transient deformation-induced permeability changes attributed to PIEZO1 channel mediation as outlined in the previous paper. The first unexpected finding was that quantal density changes generated during single capillary transits cease accumulating after a few days and cannot account for the observed progressive densification of RBCs on their own, thus ruling out the quantal hypothesis. The second unexpected finding was that the documented patterns of RBC densification and late reversal could only be emulated by the implementation of a strict time-course of decay in the activities of the calcium and Na/K pumps, suggestive of a selective mechanism enabling the extended longevity of RBCs. The densification pattern over most of the circulatory lifespan was determined by calcium pump decay whereas late density reversal was shaped by the pattern of Na/K pump decay. A third finding was that both quantal changes and pump-decay regimes were necessary to account for the documented lifespan pattern, neither sufficient on their own. A fourth new finding revealed that RBCs exposed to levels of PIEZO1-medited calcium permeation above certain thresholds in the circulation could develop a pattern of early or late hyperdense collapse followed by delayed density reversal. When tested over much reduced lifespan periods the results reproduced the known circulatory fate of irreversible sickle cells, the cell subpopulation responsible for vaso-occlusion and for most of the clinical manifestations of sickle cell disease. Analysis of the results provided an insightful new understanding of the mechanisms driving the changes in RBC homeostasis during circulatory aging in health and disease.

The physical requirement for charge to balance across biological membranes means that the transmembrane transport of each ionic species is interrelated, and manipulating solute flux through any one transporter will affect other transporters at the same membrane, often with unforeseen consequences. The OnGuard systems modeling platform has helped to resolve the mechanics of stomatal movements, uncovering previously unexpected behaviors of stomata. To date, however, the manual approach to exploring model parameter space has captured little formal information about the emergent connections between parameters that define the most interesting properties of the system as a whole. Here, we introduce global sensitivity analysis to identify interacting parameters affecting a number of outputs commonly accessed in experiments in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). The analysis highlights synergies between transporters affecting the balance between Ca2+ sequestration and Ca2+ release pathways, notably those associated with internal Ca2+ stores and their turnover. Other, unexpected synergies appear, including with the plasma membrane anion channels and H+-ATPase and with the tonoplast TPK K+ channel. These emergent synergies, and the core hubs of interaction that they define, identify subsets of transporters associated with free cytosolic Ca2+ concentration that represent key targets to enhance plant performance in the future. They also highlight the importance of interactions between the voltage regulation of the plasma membrane and tonoplast in coordinating transport between the different cellular compartments.