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During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 23,000 to 19,000 years ago), the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) covered the central chain of the Andes between ~ 38° S to 55° S. Existing paleoclimatic evidence – mostly derived from glacial landforms – suggests that maximum ice sheet expansions in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres were not synchronized. However, large uncertainties still exist in the timing of the onset of regional deglaciation as well as its major drivers. Here we present an ensemble of numerical simulations of the PIS during the LGM. Our aim is to assess the ability of paleoclimate model products to reproduce the range of atmospheric conditions needed to enable the ice sheet growth in concordance with geomorphological and geochronological evidence. The resulting ensemble is then used as a guideline for the evaluation of the PMIP3 and PMIP4 model performance across different sectors of the former PIS. Our analysis suggests a strong dependence of the PIS geometry on near-surface air temperature forcing. All the ensemble members driven by PMIP products are not able to reproduce the reconstructed ice cover in the northern part of Patagonia. In contrast, the modelled PIS tends to expand beyond its constrained boundaries in south-eastern Patagonia. We largely attribute these discrepancies between the model-based ice geometries and geological evidence to the low resolution of paleoclimate models. We conclude that among all tested climate forcings, the PMIP4 climate models INM-CM4-8 and MPI-ESM1-2-LR produce the necessary conditions for ice sheet growth across Patagonia. It should be kept in mind that this analysis is based only on the evaluation of the modelled ice sheet extent because geological constraints on the former ice thickness are still lacking. Nevertheless, our analysis suggests that a realistic PIS geometry at the LGM can be reproduced only if the complex topographic features of the Andes are properly resolved by climate models.

Numerical models predict that discharge from the polar ice sheets will become the largest contributor to sea-level rise over the coming centuries. However, the predicted amount of ice discharge and associated thinning depends on how well ice sheet models reproduce glaciological processes, such as ice flow in regions of large topographic relief, where ice flows around bedrock summits (i.e. nunataks) and through outlet glaciers. The ability of ice sheet models to capture long-term ice loss is best tested by comparing model simulations against geological data. A benchmark for such models is ice surface elevation change, which has been constrained empirically at nunataks and along margins of outlet glaciers using cosmogenic exposure dating. However, the usefulness of this approach in quantifying ice sheet thinning relies on how well such records represent changes in regional ice surface elevation. Here we examine how ice surface elevations respond to the presence of strong topographic relief that acts as an obstacle by modelling ice flow around and between idealised nunataks during periods of imposed ice sheet thinning. We find that, for realistic Antarctic conditions, a single nunatak can exert an impact on ice thickness over 20km away from its summit, with its most prominent effect being a local increase (decrease) of the ice surface elevation of hundreds of metres upstream (downstream) of the obstacle. A direct consequence of this differential surface response for cosmogenic exposure dating is a delay in the time of bedrock exposure upstream relative to downstream of a nunatak summit. A nunatak elongated transversely to ice flow is able to increase ice retention and therefore impose steeper ice surface gradients, while efficient ice drainage through outlet glaciers produces gentler gradients. Such differences, however, are not typically captured by continent-wide ice sheet models due to their coarse grid resolutions. Their inability to capture site-specific surface elevation changes appears to be a key reason for the observed mismatches between the timing of ice-free conditions from cosmogenic exposure dating and model simulations. We conclude that a model grid refinement over complex topography and information about sample position relative to ice flow near the nunatak are necessary to improve data-model comparisons of ice surface elevation and therefore the ability of models to simulate ice discharge in regions of large topographic relief.

Funding: This research has been supported by the Swedish Research Council (grant no. 2016-04422), the German Research Foundation (grant no. 1158-365737614), the US National Science Foundation (grant no. PLR-1542930), and the Norwegian Polar Institute/NARE (grant no. 2015/38/7/NK/ihs). Jorge Bernales has been supported by the MAGIC-DML project through DFG SPP 1158 (RO 4262/1-6). The article processing charges for this open-access publication were covered by Stockholm University. Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0–8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7–8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennial-scale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 °C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years. Publisher PDF

Climate change in Siberia is currently receiving a lot of attention because large permafrost-covered areas could provide a strong positive feedback to global warming through the release of carbon that has been sequestered there on glacial–interglacial timescales. Geological evidence and climate model experiments show that the Siberian region also played an exceptional role during glacial periods. The region that is currently known for its harsh cold climate did not experience major glaciations during the last ice age, including its severest stages around the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). On the contrary, it is thought that glacial summer temperatures were comparable to the present day. However, evidence of glaciation has been found for several older glacial periods. We combine LGM experiments from the second and third phases of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2 and PMIP3) with sensitivity experiments using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Together, these climate model experiments reveal that the intermodel spread in LGM summer temperatures in Siberia is much larger than in any other region of the globe and suggest that temperatures in Siberia are highly susceptible to changes in the imposed glacial boundary conditions, the included feedbacks and processes, and to the model physics of the different components of the climate model. We find that changes in the circumpolar atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport drive strong local snow and vegetation feedbacks and that this combination explains the susceptibility of LGM summer temperatures in Siberia. This suggests that a small difference between two glacial periods in terms of climate, ice buildup or their respective evolution towards maximum glacial conditions can lead to strongly divergent summer temperatures in Siberia, allowing for the buildup of an ice sheet during some glacial periods, while during others, above-freezing summer temperatures preclude a multi-year snowpack from forming.

The shallow ice approximation (SIA) is commonly used in ice-sheet models to simplify the force balance equations within the ice. However, the SIA cannot adequately reproduce the dynamics of the fast flowing ice streams usually found at the margins of ice sheets. To overcome this limitation, recent studies have introduced heuristic hybrid combinations of the SIA and the shelfy stream approximation. Here, we implement four different hybrid schemes into a model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in order to compare their performance under present-day conditions. For each scheme, the model is calibrated using an iterative technique to infer the spatial variability in basal sliding parameters. Model results are validated against topographic and velocity data. Our analysis shows that the iterative technique compensates for the differences between the schemes, producing similar ice-sheet configurations through quantitatively different results of the sliding coefficient calibration. Despite this we observe a robust agreement in the reconstructed patterns of basal sliding parameters. We exchange the calibrated sliding parameter distributions between the schemes to demonstrate that the results of the model calibration cannot be straightforwardly transferred to models based on different approximations of ice dynamics. However, easily adaptable calibration techniques for the potential distribution of basal sliding coefficients can be implemented into ice models to overcome such incompatibility, as shown in this study.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is generally assumed to have been relatively insensitive to Quaternary climat echange. However, recent studies have shown potential instabilities in coastal, marine sectors of the EAIS. In addition, long-term climate reconstructions and modelling experiments indicate the potential for significant changes in ice volume and ice sheet configuration since the Pliocene. Hence, more empirical evidence for ice surface and ice volume changes is required to discriminate between contrasting inferences. MAGIC-DML is an ongoing Swedish-US-Norwegian-German-UK collaboration focused on improving ice sheetm odels by filling critical data gaps that exist in our knowledge of the timing and pattern of ice surface changes along the western Dronning Maud Land (DML) margin and combining this with advances in numerical techniques. As part of the project, field studies in the 2016/17 and 2017/18 austral summers targeted selected sites spanning accessible altitudes in the Heimefrontfjella, Vestfjella, Ahlmannryggen, Borgmassivet, and Kirwanveggen nunatakranges for in situcosmogenic nuclide sampling. Comparing concentrations of nuclides with widely differing half-lives in bedrock and erratics from a range of altitudes above modern ice surfaces can provide information on ice sheet fluctuations and complex burial and exposure histories, and thus, past configurations of non-erosive ice. Quartz-bearing rock types were sampled and analyzed for 10Be (t1/21.4 My),14C (t1/25.7 ky),26Al (t1/2705ky), and 21Ne (stable), and mafic lithologies for36Cl (t1/2301 ky). Results thus far for 3210Be and 26Al isotope pairs complemented with seven21Ne measurements have yielded some consistent patterns of paleoglaciation for the western DML margin. Eight out of fourteen bedrock samples from high-elevation (1700-2238 m a.s.l.) ridges and summits return some of the oldest exposure ages in Antarctica and have consistent 10Be,26Al, and 21Ne minimum apparent exposure ages of 1.8-4.1 Ma. Initial results therefore indicate that parts of the ice sheet marginal to the Antarctic plateau, along the Heimefrontfjella range, generally have experienced a decrease in ice thickness since the late Miocene. Another six bedrock samples (1556-1732 ma.s.l.) fall in the 300-700 ka range, and they all show significant burial. At face value, perhaps this indicates aregional ice sheet surface above 1700 m a.s.l. for much of the Plio-early Pleistocene. All other samples analyzedto date are erratics from lower elevation and more coastal sites (10 from nunataks at 553-1400 m a.s.l., and 6 froma surface moraine at 1385 m a.s.l.), exhibiting ages between 59 and 275 ka, save for two (4 and 6 ka). Whereas almost all of the nunatak erratics (including the young ones) show significant burial durations, five of the six surface moraine samples do not. These 2016/17 field samples are not yet leading to conclusive age constraints but already start to paint a picture of the western DML margin being relatively stable although there was possibly one or more episodes of relatively limited ice thickening during the last 700 ka.

Constraining numerical ice sheet models by comparison with observational data is crucial to address the interactions between cryosphere and climate at a wide range of scales. Such models are tested and refined by comparing model predictions of past ice geometries with field-based reconstructions from geological, geomorphological, and ice core data. However, for the East Antarctic Ice sheet, there is a critical gap in the empirical data necessary to reconstruct changes in ice sheet geometry in the Dronning Maud Land (DML) region. In addition, there is poor control on the regional climate history of the ice sheet margin, because ice-core locations, where detailed reconstructions of climate history exist, are located on high inland domes. This leaves numerical models ofregional glaciation history in this near-coastal area largely unconstrained. MAGIC-DML is an ongoing Swedish-US-Norwegian-German-UK collaboration with a focus on improvingice sheet models of the western DML margin by combining advances in modeling with filling critical data gaps regarding the timing and pattern of ice-surface changes. A combination of geomorphological mapping using remote sensing data, field observations, cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating, and numerical ice sheetmodeling are being used in an iterative manner to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the glacial historyof western DML. Here, we present an overview of the project, field evidence for formerly higher ice surfaces and in-situ cosmogenic nuclide measurements from the 2016/17 expedition. Preliminary field evidence indicate that interior sectors of DML have experienced a general decrease in ice sheet thickness since the late Miocene, with potential episodes of increasing thickness in the late Pleistocene (700-300 ka, 250-75 ka). To aid in interpreting these field data, new high-resolution ice sheet model reconstructions, constraining ice sheet configurations during key episodes, are presented.

Lithospheric plates move over the low‐viscosity asthenosphere balancing several forces, which generate plate motions. We use a global 3‐D lithosphere‐asthenosphere model (SLIM3D) with visco‐elasto‐plastic rheology coupled to a spectral model of mantle flow at 300 km depth to quantify the influence of intra‐plate friction and asthenospheric viscosity on plate velocities. We account for the brittle‐ductile deformation at plate boundaries (yield stress) using a plate boundary friction coefficient to predict the present‐day plate motion and net rotation of the lithospheric plates. Previous modeling studies have suggested that small friction coefficients ( urn:x-wiley:15252027:media:ggge21498:ggge21498-math-0001, yield stress urn:x-wiley:15252027:media:ggge21498:ggge21498-math-0002 MPa) can lead to plate tectonics in models of mantle convection. Here we show that in order to match the observed present‐day plate motion and net rotation, the frictional parameter must be less than 0.05. We obtain a good fit with the magnitude and orientation of the observed plate velocities (NUVEL‐1A) in a no‐net‐rotation (NNR) reference frame with urn:x-wiley:15252027:media:ggge21498:ggge21498-math-0003 and a minimum asthenosphere viscosity of urn:x-wiley:15252027:media:ggge21498:ggge21498-math-0004 Pas to 1020 Pas. Our estimates of net rotation (NR) of the lithosphere suggest that amplitudes urn:x-wiley:15252027:media:ggge21498:ggge21498-math-0005 ( urn:x-wiley:15252027:media:ggge21498:ggge21498-math-0006/Ma), similar to most observation‐based estimates, can be obtained with asthenosphere viscosity cutoff values of urn:x-wiley:15252027:media:ggge21498:ggge21498-math-0007 Pas to urn:x-wiley:15252027:media:ggge21498:ggge21498-math-0008 Pas and friction coefficients urn:x-wiley:15252027:media:ggge21498:ggge21498-math-0009.

The orientation and tectonic regime of the observed crustal/lithospheric stress field contribute to our knowledge of different deformation processes occurring within the Earth's crust and lithosphere. In this study, we analyze the influence of the thermal and density structure of the upper mantle on the lithospheric stress field and topography. We use a 3-D lithosphere–asthenosphere numerical model with power-law rheology, coupled to a spectral mantle flow code at 300 km depth. Our results are validated against the World Stress Map 2016 (WSM2016) and the observation-based residual topography. We derive the upper mantle thermal structure from either a heat flow model combined with a seafloor age model (TM1) or a global S-wave velocity model (TM2). We show that lateral density heterogeneities in the upper 300 km have a limited influence on the modeled horizontal stress field as opposed to the resulting dynamic topography that appears more sensitive to such heterogeneities. The modeled stress field directions, using only the mantle heterogeneities below 300 km, are not perturbed much when the effects of lithosphere and crust above 300 km are added. In contrast, modeled stress magnitudes and dynamic topography are to a greater extent controlled by the upper mantle density structure. After correction for the chemical depletion of continents, the TM2 model leads to a much better fit with the observed residual topography giving a good correlation of 0.51 in continents, but this correction leads to no significant improvement of the fit between the WSM2016 and the resulting lithosphere stresses. In continental regions with abundant heat flow data, TM1 results in relatively small angular misfits. For example, in western Europe the misfit between the modeled and observation-based stress is 18.3°. Our findings emphasize that the relative contributions coming from shallow and deep mantle dynamic forces are quite different for the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography.