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Models used to investigate the relationship between biodiversity change and vector-borne disease risk often do not explicitly include the vector; they instead rely on a frequency-dependent transmission function to represent vector dynamics. However, differences between classes of vector (e.g., ticks and insects) can cause discrepancies in epidemiological responses to environmental change. Using a pair of disease models (mosquito- and tick-borne), we simulated substitutive and additive biodiversity change (where noncompetent hosts replaced or were added to competent hosts, respectively), while considering different relationships between vector and host densities. We found important differences between classes of vector, including an increased likelihood of amplified disease risk under additive biodiversity change in mosquito models, driven by higher vector biting rates. We also draw attention to more general phenomena, such as a negative relationship between initial infection prevalence in vectors and likelihood of dilution, and the potential for a rise in density of infected vectors to occur simultaneously with a decline in proportion of infected hosts. This has important implications; the density of infected vectors is the most valid metric for primarily zoonotic infections, while the proportion of infected hosts is more relevant for infections where humans are a primary host. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), particularly zoonoses, represent a significant threat to global health. Emergence is often driven by anthropogenic activity (e.g., travel, land use change). Although disease emergence frameworks suggest multiple steps from initial zoonotic transmission to human-to-human spread, there have been few attempts to empirically model specific steps. We create a process-based framework to separate out components of individual emergence steps. We focus on early emergence and expand the first step, zoonotic transmission, into processes of generation of pathogen richness, transmission opportunity, and establishment, each with its own hypothesized drivers. Using this structure, we build a spatial empirical model of these drivers, taking bat viruses shared with humans as a case study. We show that drivers of both viral richness (host diversity and climatic variability) and transmission opportunity (human population density, bushmeat hunting, and livestock production) are associated with virus sharing between humans and bats. We also show spatial heterogeneity between the global patterns of these two processes, suggesting that high-priority locations for pathogen discovery and surveillance in wildlife may not necessarily coincide with those for public health intervention. Finally, we offer direction for future studies of zoonotic EIDs by highlighting the importance of the processes underlying their emergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A pathogen's ability to persist in the environment is an ecologically important trait, and variation in this trait may promote coexistence of different pathogen strains. We asked whether naturally occurring isolates of the baculovirus that infects gypsy moth larvae varied in their overwinter environmental transmission and whether this variation was consistent with a trade-off or an upper limit to virulence that might promote pathogen diversity. We used experimental manipulations to replicate the natural overwinter infection process, using 16 field-collected isolates. Virus isolates varied substantially in the fraction of larvae infected, leading to differences in overwinter transmission rates. Furthermore, isolates that killed more larvae also had higher rates of early larval death in which no infectious particles were produced, consistent with a cost of high virulence. Our results thus support the existence of a cost that could impose an upper limit to virulence even in a highly virulent pathogen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although accumulated evidence has shown that biodiversity can play an important role in disease transmission and prevalence, it remains unclear how different measures of diversity based on taxonomy or function perform in predicting disease risk. In this article, we assess the relative ability of species richness, Shannon's evenness index, single functional traits, and several functional diversity metrics and their interactions to predict disease risk in both non-equilibrium and equilibrium communities simulated by a multihost epidemiological model. On the basis of generalized linear models and Akaike's information criterion, we found that Shannon's evenness index outperforms species richness as a single variable in explaining variation in disease risk, while the best combination consists of Shannon's evenness index and functional diversity. This study is, to our knowledge, the first to demonstrate the important role played by species evenness and functional diversity in accounting for variation in disease risk in multihost communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many parasites circulate endemically within communities of multiple host species. To understand disease persistence within these communities, it is essential to know the contribution each host species makes to parasite transmission and maintenance. However, quantifying those contributions is challenging. We present a conceptual framework for classifying multihost sharing, based on key thresholds for parasite persistence. We then develop a generalized technique to quantify each species' contribution to parasite persistence, allowing natural systems to be located within the framework. We illustrate this approach using data on gastrointestinal parasites circulating within rodent communities and show that, although many parasites infect several host species, parasite persistence is often driven by just one host species. In some cases, however, parasites require multiple host species for maintenance. Our approach provides a quantitative method for differentiating these cases using minimal reliance on system-specific parameters, enabling informed decisions about parasite management within poorly understood multihost communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore pathogen virulence evolution during the spatial expansion of an infectious disease epidemic in the presence of a novel host movement trade-off, using a simple, spatially explicit mathematical model. This work is motivated by empirical observations of the Mycoplasma gallisepticum invasion into North American house finch (Haemorhous mexicanus) populations; however, our results likely have important applications to other emerging infectious diseases in mobile hosts. We assume that infection reduces host movement and survival and that across pathogen strains the severity of these reductions increases with pathogen infectiousness. Assuming these trade-offs between pathogen virulence (host mortality), pathogen transmission, and host movement, we find that pathogen virulence levels near the epidemic front (that maximize wave speed) are lower than those that have a short-term growth rate advantage or that ultimately prevail (i.e., are evolutionarily stable) near the epicenter and where infection becomes endemic (i.e., that maximize the pathogen basic reproductive ratio). We predict that, under these trade-offs, less virulent pathogen strains will dominate the periphery of an epidemic and that more virulent strains will increase in frequency after invasion where disease is endemic. These results have important implications for observing and interpreting spatiotemporal epidemic data and may help explain transient virulence dynamics of emerging infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extent of population mixing is known to influence the coevolutionary outcomes of many host and parasite traits, including the evolution of generalism (the ability to resist or infect a broad range of genotypes). While the segregation of populations into interconnected demes has been shown to influence the evolution of generalism, the role of local interactions between individuals is unclear. Here, we combine an individual-based model of microbial communities with a well-established framework of genetic specificity that matches empirical observations of bacterium-phage interactions. We find the evolution of generalism in well-mixed populations to be highly sensitive to the severity of associated fitness costs, but the constraining effect of costs on the evolution of generalism is lessened in spatially structured populations. The contrasting outcomes between the two environments can be explained by different scales of competition (i.e., global vs. local). These findings suggest that local interactions may have important effects on the evolution of generalism in host-parasite interactions, particularly in the presence of high fitness costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have used host-parasite systems to study local adaptation, but few of these studies have found unequivocal evidence for adaptation. One potential reason is that most studies have focused on limited measures of host and parasite fitness that are generally assumed to be under negative frequency-dependent selection. We have used reciprocal cross-infection experiments to test for local adaptation in Hawaiian, south Floridian, and eastern North American populations of monarch butterflies and their protozoan parasites. Sympatric host-parasite combinations did not result in greater host or parasite fitness, as would be expected under coevolutionary dynamics driven by negative frequency-dependent selection. Instead, we found that Hawaiian hosts were more resistant and carried more infective and virulent parasites, which is consistent with theoretical predictions for virulence evolution and coevolutionary arms race dynamics. We also found that Hawaiian hosts were more tolerant, particularly of Hawaiian parasites, indicating that increased resistance does not preclude increased tolerance within a population and that hosts may be more tolerant of local parasites. We did not find a similar pattern in the south Floridian or eastern populations, possibly because host-parasite adaptation occurs within the context of a greater ecological community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]