1. Projected climatic drought events in drought-prone cities: Insights from high-resolution downscaled CMIP6 data
- Author
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Xue Li, Rongrong Wei, Yaxiu Liu, Xiong Liu, Jian Sha, Man Zhang, and Zhong-Liang Wang
- Subjects
Drought trends ,Climate scenarios ,Two-step downscaling ,Deep learning ,Local climate ,Meteorology. Climatology ,QC851-999 ,Social sciences (General) ,H1-99 - Abstract
This study investigated the drought trends, frequency, and duration in three drought-prone cities in Northwest China under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) climate scenarios from 2015 to 2099. Utilizing a two-step downscaling method, we generated high-resolution (1 km) temperature and precipitation projections for the cities using multiple global climate model (GCM) data. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was then calculated to assess drought conditions. Our results revealed that under the influence of global climate change, the 12-month SPEI exhibited a significant increasing trend for all three cities, indicating a shift towards a more humid climate. The influence of climate change on drought trends was more pronounced at higher latitudes. Additionally, the occurrence and duration of severe droughts (3-month SPEI
- Published
- 2024
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