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Administrative home care data from the Manitoba Support Services Payroll (MSSP) system for fiscal years 1995/1996 to 1998/1999 were utilized to study home care client characteristics and changes in home care use over time. Patterns in home care access and use after hospitalization, before admission to a nursing home, and before death were examined. The study found that the majority of home care clients were female, aged 65 and over, and not married. The proportion of Manitobans using home care increased slowly, but significantly, over the 4 years. The greatest increases were found among the older age groups. The average number of days that clients received home care before death or before admission to a nursing home was stable over time, while a significant increase over time in home care use after hospitalization was experienced. These findings can be useful to regional health authorities for planning and budgeting.

Being able to anticipate future needs for health services presents a challenge for health planners. Using existing population projections, two models are presented to estimate the demand for hospital beds in regions of Manitoba in 2020. The first, a current-use projection model, simply projects the average use for a recent three-year period into the future. The second, a 10-year trend analysis, uses Poisson regression to project future demand. The current-use projection suggests a substantial increase in the demand for hospital beds, while the trend analysis projects a decline. The last projections are consistent with ongoing increases in rates of day surgeries and declines in lengths of stay. The current-use projections need to be considered in the context of relatively low occupancy rates in rural hospitals and previous research on appropriateness of stays in acute care hospitals. If measures are taken to ensure more appropriate use of acute care hospital beds in the future, then the current-use projections of bed shortages are not a cause for concern.

Previous studies report geographic variation in the use of home care services. In the province of Manitoba, home care is a core service that Manitoba's twelve regional health authorities (RHAs) are obligated to deliver. Manitoba's RHAs range from remote northern and rural southern regions to a major city, resulting in different challenges for delivering home care. Given this potential for inconsistent delivery and the previous findings of regional variation in other settings, the objective of this study was to measure and assess variation in the use of home care across Manitoba's RHAs. We used data from the Provincial Home Care Program's client registry, other health care administrative databases, and Vital Statistics. Home care use was measured using multiple indicators, including rates of population use, use after hospitalization, before entry to a long-term care facility, and before death. While some important differences emerged, overall we found comparable use of home care across Manitoba.

Canadians have expressed concern that access to a family physician (FP) has declined precipitously. Yet FP to population ratios remained relatively stable over the last decade, and there were perceptions of physician surpluses, at least in urban centres, 10 years ago. We evaluated whether demographic changes among patients and FPs, and in the volume of care received and provided over the period, contribute to this paradox. Given the relationship between age and FP use in fiscal year 1991/1992, an aging population should have been associated with a 2 per cent increase in visits by 2000/2001. Likewise, given the relationship between FP age and workloads in 1991/1992, an aging workforce should have been associated with a 12 per cent increase in service provision a decade later. Yet visit rates and average FP workloads remained unchanged. There was an increase in age-specific rates of FP use among older adults and a decline in rates among the young, and an increase in age-specific workloads such that older FPs provided many more services than their predecessors (30%) and younger FPs provided many fewer (20%). In terms of impact on future requirements for FPs, both changes in age-specific rates of use, and changes in age-specific patterns of FP productivity, trump population aging as key drivers.