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Climate change is expected to affect crop production worldwide, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions. It is still unknown how irrigation water needs will change in a warmer planet and where freshwater will be locally available to expand irrigation without depleting freshwater resources. Here, we identify the rain-fed cropping systems that hold the greatest potential for investment in irrigation expansion because water will likely be available to suffice irrigation water demand. Using projections of renewable water availability and irrigation water demand under warming scenarios, we identify target regions where irrigation expansion may sustain crop production under climate change. Our results also show that global rain-fed croplands hold significant potential for sustainable irrigation expansion and that different irrigation strategies have different irrigation expansion potentials. Under a 3 °C warming, we find that a soft-path irrigation expansion with small monthly water storage and deficit irrigation has the potential to expand irrigated land by 70 million hectares and feed 300 million more people globally. We also find that a hard-path irrigation expansion with large annual water storage can sustainably expand irrigation up to 350 million hectares, while producing food for 1.4 billion more people globally. By identifying where irrigation can be expanded under a warmer climate, this work may serve as a starting point for investigating socioeconomic factors of irrigation expansion and may guide future research and resources toward those agricultural communities and water management institutions that will most need to adapt to climate change.

Major environmental functions and human needs critically depend on water. In regions of the world affected by water scarcity economic activities can be constrained by water availability, leading to competition both among sectors and between human uses and environmental needs. While the commodification of water remains a contentious political issue, the valuation of this natural resource is sometime viewed as a strategy to avoid water waste. Likewise, water markets have been invoked as a mechanism to allocate water to economically most efficient uses. The value of water, however, remains difficult to estimate because water markets and market prices exist only in few regions of the world. Despite numerous attempts at estimating the value of water in the absence of markets (i.e., the "shadow price"), a global spatially explicit assessment of the value of water in agriculture is still missing. Here we propose a data-parsimonious biophysical framework to determine the value generated by water in irrigated agriculture and highlight its global spatiotemporal patterns. We find that in much of the world the actual crop distribution does not maximize agricultural water value.

Major environmental functions and human needs critically depend on water. In regions of the world affected by water scarcity economic activities can be constrained by water availability, leading to competition both among sectors and between human uses and environmental needs. While the commodification of water remains a contentious political issue, the valuation of this natural resource is sometime viewed as a strategy to avoid water waste. Likewise, water markets have been invoked as a mechanism to allocate water to economically most efficient uses. The value of water, however, remains difficult to estimate because water markets and market prices exist only in few regions of the world. Despite numerous attempts at estimating the value of water in the absence of markets (i.e., the "shadow price"), a global spatially explicit assessment of the value of water in agriculture is still missing. Here we propose a data-parsimonious biophysical framework to determine the value generated by water in irrigated agriculture and highlight its global spatiotemporal patterns. We find that in much of the world the actual crop distribution does not maximize agricultural water value.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a strategy to mitigate climate change by limiting CO2 emissions from point sources such as coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). Although decision-makers are seeking to implement policies regarding CCS, the consequences of this technology on water scarcity have not been fully assessed. Here we simulate the impacts on water resources that would result from retrofitting global CFPPs with four different CCS technologies. We find that 43% of the global CFPP capacity experiences water scarcity for at least one month per year and 32% experiences scarcity for five or more months per year. Although retrofitting CFPPs with CCS would not greatly exacerbate water scarcity, we show that certain geographies lack sufficient water resources to meet the additional water demands of CCS technologies. For CFPPs located in these water-scarce areas, the trade-offs between the climate change mitigation benefits and the increased pressure on water resources of CCS should be weighed. We conclude that CCS should be preferentially deployed at those facilities least impacted by water scarcity.

Water scarcity raises major concerns on the sustainable future of humanity and the conservation of important ecosystem functions. To meet the increasing food demand without expanding cultivated areas, agriculture will likely need to introduce irrigation in croplands that are currently rain-fed but where enough water would be available for irrigation. “Agricultural economic water scarcity” is, here, defined as lack of irrigation due to limited institutional and economic capacity instead of hydrologic constraints. To date, the location and productivity potential of economically water scarce croplands remain unknown. We develop a monthly agrohydrological analysis to map agricultural regions affected by agricultural economic water scarcity. We find these regions account for up to 25% of the global croplands, mostly across Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. Sustainable irrigation of economically water scarce croplands could feed an additional 840 million people while preventing further aggravation of blue water scarcity.

Recent studies have highlighted the reliance of global food production on unsustainable irrigation practices, which deplete freshwater stocks and environmental flows, and consequently impair aquatic ecosystems. Unsustainable irrigation is driven by domestic and international demand for agricultural products. Research on the environmental consequences of trade has often concentrated on the global displacement of pollution and land use, while the effect of trade on water sustainability and the drying of over-depleted watercourses has seldom been recognized and quantified. Here we evaluate unsustainable irrigation water consumption (UWC) associated with global crop production and determine the share of UWC embedded in international trade. We find that, while about 52% of global irrigation is unsustainable, 15% of it is virtually exported, with an average 18% increase between year 2000 and 2015. About 60% of global virtual transfers of UWC are driven by exports of cotton, sugar cane, fruits, and vegetables. One third of UWC in Mexico, Spain, Turkmenistan, South Africa, Morocco, and Australia is associated with demand from the export markets. The globalization of water through trade contributes to running rivers dry, an environmental externality commonly overlooked by trade policies. By identifying the producing and consuming countries that are responsible for unsustainable irrigation embedded in virtual water trade, this study highlights trade links in which policies are needed to achieve sustainable water and food security goals in the coming decades.

Shale deposits are globally abundant and widespread. Extraction of shale oil and shale gas is generally performed through water-intensive hydraulic fracturing. Despite recent work on its environmental impacts, it remains unclear where and to what extent shale resource extraction could compete with other water needs. Here we consider the global distribution of known shale deposits suitable for oil and gas extraction and develop a water balance model to quantify their impacts on local water availability for other human uses and ecosystem functions. We find that 31–44% of the world's shale deposits are located in areas where water stress would either emerge or be exacerbated as a result of shale oil or gas extraction; 20% of shale deposits are in areas affected by groundwater depletion and 30% in irrigated land. In these regions shale oil and shale gas production would likely compete for local water resources with agriculture, environmental flows, and other water needs. By adopting a hydrologic perspective that considers water availability and demand together, decision makers and local communities can better understand the water and food security implications of shale resource development.

The increasing global demand for natural rubber (100% increase in the last 15 years) is for most part met by Malaysia and Indonesia, and – to a lesser extent – other countries in South-East Asia and Africa. The consequent expansion of rubber plantation has often occurred at the expenses of agricultural land for staple crops, particularly in South-East Asia, where 90% of the land suitable for agriculture is already under cultivation. Here we investigate the extent to which the ongoing increase in rubber production is competing with the food system and affecting the livelihoods of rural communities living in the production areas and their appropriation of natural resources, such as water. We also investigate to what extent the expansion of rubber plantations is taking place through large scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) and evaluate the impacts on rural communities. Our results show how rubber production needs more than 10 million ha of fertile land and up to 136–149 × 109 m3 y−1 of freshwater (125 × 109 m3 y−1 of green water and 11–24 × 109 m3 y−1 of blue water). These resources would be sufficient to produce enough food to significantly reduce malnourishment in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam if replaced by rice production. Overall, natural rubber production has important environmental, social, and economic impacts. Indeed, despite their ability to bring employment and increase the average income of economically disadvantaged areas, rubber plantations may threaten the local water and food security and induce a loss of rural livelihoods – particularly when the new plantations result from LSLAs that displace semi-subsistence forms of production – thereby forcing the local populations to depend on global food markets.

Crude oil from oil sands will constitute a substantial share of future global oil demand. Oil sands deposits account for a third of globally proven oil reserves, underlie large natural forested areas, and have extraction methods requiring large volumes of freshwater. Yet little work has been done to quantify some of the main environmental impacts of oil sands operations. Here we examine forest loss and water use for the world's major oil sands deposits. We calculate actual and potential rates of water use and forest loss both in Canadian deposits, where oil sands extraction is already taking place, and in other major deposits worldwide. We estimated that their exploitation, given projected production trends, could result in 1.31 km3 yr−1 of freshwater demand and 8700 km2 of forest loss. The expected escalation in oil sands extraction thus portends extensive environmental impacts.

Governments worldwide must invest in girls' education, family planning, agriculture and security in this vulnerable region. Governments worldwide must invest in girls' education, family planning, agriculture and security in this vulnerable region., Author(s): Alisha Graves, Lorenzo Rosa, Abdoul Moumouni Nouhou, Fadji Maina, Djimé Adoum Author Affiliations: Avert catastrophe now in Africa's Sahel Women in Niger and other parts of the Sahel are [...]