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Linear regression trends for the years 1979-2003 were computed using the new Version 8 merged Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) data set of ozone profiles. These trends were compared to trends computed using ozone profiles from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) zonally averaged coupled model. Observed and modeled annual trends between 50 N and 50 S were a maximum in the higher latitudes of the upper stratosphere, with southern hemisphere (SH) trends greater than northern hemisphere (NH) trends. The observed upper stratospheric maximum annual trend is -5.5 +/- 0.9 % per decade (1 sigma) at 47.5 S and -3.8 +/- 0.5 % per decade at 47.5 N, to be compared with the modeled trends of -4.5 +/- 0.3 % per decade in the SH and -4.0 +/- 0.2% per decade in the NH. Both observed and modeled trends are most negative in winter and least negative in summer, although the modeled seasonal difference is less than observed. Model trends are shown to be greatest in winter due to a repartitioning of chlorine species and the increasing abundance of chlorine with time. The model results show that trend differences can occur depending on whether ozone profiles are in mixing ratio or number density coordinates, and on whether they are recorded on pressure or altitude levels.

The effects of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer associated with the Mt. Pinatubo volcano and future volcanic eruptions on the recovery of the ozone layer is studied with an interactive two-dimensional photochemical model. The time varying chlorine loading and the stratospheric cooling due to increasing carbon dioxide have been taken into account. The computed ozone and temperature changes associated with the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991 agree well with observations. Long model runs out to the year 2050 have been carried out, in which volcanoes having the characteristics of the Mount Pinatubo volcano were erupted in the model at 10-year intervals starting in the year 2010. Compared to a non-volcanic run using background aerosol loading, transient reductions of globally averaged column ozone of 2-3 percent were computed as a result of each of these eruptions, with the ozone recovering to that computed for the non-volcanic case in about 5 years after the eruption. Computed springtime Arctic column ozone losses of from 10 to 18 percent also recovered to the non-volcanic case within 5 years. These results suggest that the long-term recovery of ozone would not be strongly affected by infrequent volcanic eruptions with a sulfur loading approximating Mt. Pinatubo. Sensitivity studies in which the Arctic lower stratosphere was forced to be 4 K and 10 K colder resulted in transient ozone losses of which also recovered to the non-volcanic case in 5 years. A case in which a volcano five times Mt. Pinatubo was erupted in the year 2010 led to maximum springtime column ozone losses of 45 percent which took 10 years to recover to the background case. Finally, in order to simulate a situation in which frequent smaller volcanic eruptions result in increasing the background sulfate loading, a simulation was made in which the background aerosol was increased by 10 percent per year. This resulted in a delay of the recovery of column ozone to 1980 values of more than 10 years.

We have used the GSFC coupled two-dimensional (2D) model to study the impact of increasing carbon dioxide from 1980 to 2050 on the recovery of ozone to its pre-1980 amounts. We find that the changes in temperature and circulation arising from increasing CO2 affect ozone recovery in a manner which varies greatly with latitude, altitude, and time of year. Middle and upper stratospheric ozone recovers faster at all latitudes due to a slowing of the ozone catalytic loss cycles. In the lower stratosphere, the recovery of tropical ozone is delayed due to a decrease in production and a speed up in the overturning circulation. The recovery of high northern latitude lower stratospheric ozone is delayed in spring and summer due to an increase in springtime heterogeneous chemical loss, and is speeded up in fall and winter due to increased downwelling. The net effect on the higher northern latitude column ozone is to slow down the recovery from late March to late July, while making it faster at other times. In the high southern latitudes, the impact of CO2 cooling is negligible. Annual mean column ozone is predicted to recover faster at all latitudes, and globally averaged ozone is predicted to recover approximately ten years faster as a result of increasing CO2.

Understanding the mechanisms that control the temperature of the polar lower stratosphere during spring is key to understanding ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex. Spring ozone loss rates are directly tied to polar stratospheric temperatures by the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, and the conversion of chlorine species to reactive forms on these cloud particle surfaces. In this paper, we study those factors that control temperatures in the polar lower stratosphere. We use the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NCAR reanalysis data covering the last two decades to investigate how planetary wave driving of the stratosphere is connected to polar temperatures. In particular, we show that planetary waves forced in the troposphere in mid- to late winter (January-February) are principally responsible for the mean polar temperature during the March period. These planetary waves are forced by both thermal and orographic processes in the troposphere, and propagate into the stratosphere in the mid and high latitudes. Strong mid-winter planetary wave forcing leads to a warmer Arctic lower stratosphere in early spring, while weak mid-winter forcing leads to cooler Arctic temperatures.

Analysis of the version 16 Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) CH4 data shows that this long-lived trace gas is well correlated with potential vorticity (PV) computed from National Meteorological Center balanced winds. Analyzing late September and October 1992 data, we show that very low CH4 values are confined to the interior of a vortex edge defined by the maximum gradient in PV. The CH4 and HF time tendency is used to estimate the descent rate in the Antarctic vortex. After removing a component of the trend correlated with the HALOE sampling pattern, we compute the lower stratosphere vertical descent rates and net heaing rates in the spring Antarctic vortex. Our computations of the spring Antarctic vortex heating rates give -0.5 to -0.1 K/day. Over the winter season, the overall lower stratospheric descent rate averages about 1.8-1.5 km/month. These computations are in line with radiative transfer estimates of the heating and descent rate. The HALOE data thus appear to be consistent with the picture of an isolated lower stratospheric Antarctic vortex.

A radiation model, together with National Meteorological Center temperature observations, was used to compute daily net heating rates in the northern hemisphere (NH) for the Arctic late fall and winter periods of both 1988-1989 and 1991-1992 and in the southern hemisphere (SH) for the Antarctic fall and winters of 1987 and 1992. The heating rates were interpolated to potential temperature (theta) surfaces between 400 K and 2000 K and averaged within the polar vortex, the boundary of which was determined by the maximum gradient in potential vorticity. The averaged heating rates were used in a one-dimensional vortex interior descent model to compute the change in potential temperature with time of air parcels initialized at various theta values, as well as to compute the descent in log pressure coodinates. In the NH vortex, air parcels which were initialized at 18 km on November 1, descended about 6 km by March 21, while air initially at 25 km descended 9 km in the same time period. this represents an average descent rate in the lower stratosphere of 1.3 to 2 km per month. Air initialized at 50 km descended 27 km between November 1 and March 21. In the SH vortex, parcels initialized at 18 km on March 1, descended 3 km, while air at 25 km descended 5-7 km by the end of October. This is equivalent to an average descent in the lower stratosphere of 0.4 to 0.9 km per month during this 8-month period. Air initialized at 52 km descended 26-29 km between March 1 and October 31. In both the NH and the SH, computed descent rates increased markedly with height. The descent for the NH winter of 1992-1993 and the SH winter of 1992 computed with a three-dimensional trajectory model using the same radiation code was within 1 to 2 km of that calculated by the one-dimensional model, thus validating the vortex averaging procedure. The computed descent rates generally agree well with observations of long-lived tracers, thus validating the radiative transfer model.

The lower boundary of a spectral mechanistic model is prescribed with 100 hPa geopotentials, and its performance during a November 1989 through March 1990 integration is compared with National Meteorological Center observations. Although the stratopause temperatures quickly become biased near the pole in both hemispheres, the model develops a residual mean circulation which shows significant descent over the winter pole and ascent in the tropics and over the summer pole at pressures less than 10 hPa. The daily correspondence of observed to modeled features in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere degrades after one month. However, the long-term variability qualitatively follows the observations. The results of off-line transport experiments are also described. A passive tracer is instantaneously injected into the flow over the poles and evolves in a manner which is consistent with the residual mean circulation. It demonstrates a significant cross-equatorial flux in the mesosphere near solstice, and air which originates in the southern hemisphere polar mesosphere can be found descending deep into the nothern polar stratosphere at the end of the integration. Nitrous oxide is also transported, and its ability to act as a dynamical tracer is evaluated by comparison to the evolution of the passive tracer.

Results are presented of a study of the radiative effects of polar stratospheric clouds during the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE) and the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE) in which daily 3D Type I nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and Type II water ice polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) were generated in the polar regions during AAOE and the AASE aircraft missions. Mission data on particular composition and size, together with NMC-analyzed temperatures, are used. For AAOE, both Type I and Type II clouds were formed for the time period August 23 to September 17, after which only Type I clouds formed. During AASE, while Type I clouds were formed for each day between January 3 and February 10, Type II clouds formed on only two days, January 24 and 31. Mie theory and a radiative transfer model are used to compute the radiative heating rates during the mission periods, for clear and cloudy lower sky cases. Only the Type II water ice clouds have a significant radiative effect, with the Type I NATO PSCs generating a net heating or cooling of 0.1 K/d or less.

The paper develops a comparative picture of the 1987 Southern Hemisphere and 1989 Northern Hemisphere lower stratospheric, polar vortex circulation and constituent distributions as observed by the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment, August 17-September 22, 1987, and Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition, January 3-February 19, 1989 aircraft campaigns. Overall, both polar vortices define a region of highly isolated air, where the exchange of trace gases occurs principally at the vortex edge through erosional wave activity. Aircraft measurement showed that between 50 and 100 mbar, horizontally stratified long-lived tracers such as N2O are displaced downward 2-3 km on the cyclonic (poleward) side of the jet with the meridional tracer gradient sharpest at the jet core. Eddy mixing rates, computed using parcel ensemble statistics, are an order of magnitude or more lower on the cyclonic side of the jet compared to those on the anticyclonic side. Poleward zonal mean meridional flow on the anticyclonic side of the jet terminates in a descent zone at the jet core.

Using a stratospheric-tropospheric data assimilation system, referred to as STRATAN, a minor sudden stratospheric warming that occurred in January 1989 is investigated. The event had a maximum influence on the stratospheric circulation near 2 hPa. The zonal mean circulation reversed briefly in the polar region as the temperature increased 34 K in 3 days. The cause of the warming is shown to be the rapid development and subsequent movement of a warm anomaly, which initially developed in the midlatitudes. The development of the warm anomaly is caused by adiabatic descent, and the dissipation by radiative cooling. A brief comparison with the NMC analysis and temperature sounding data is also presented.

A simple parameterization of ozone absorption in the 9.6-micron region which is suitable for two- and three-dimensional stratospheric and tropospheric models is presented. The band is divided into two parts, a brand center region and a band wing region, grouping together regions for which the temperature dependence of absorption is similar. Each of the two regions is modeled with a function having the form of the Goody random model, with pressure and temperature dependent band parameters chosen by empirically fitting line-by-line equivalent widths for pressures between 0.25 and 1000 mbar and ozone absorber amounts between 1.0 x 10 to the -7th and 1.0 cm atm. The model has been applied to calculations of atmospheric heating rates using an absorber amount weighted mean pressure and temperature along the inhomogeneous paths necessary for flux computations. In the stratosphere, maximum errors in the heating rates relative to line-by-line calculations are 0.1 K/d, or 5 percent of the peak cooling at the stratopause. In the troposphere the errors are at most 0.005 K/d.

Values of the monthly mean heating rates and the residual circulation characteristics were calculated using NMC data for temperature and the solar backscattered UV ozone for the period between 1979 and 1986. The results were used in a two-dimensional photochemical model in order to examine the effects of temperature and residual circulation on the interannual variability of ozone. It was found that the calculated total ozone was more sensitive to variations in interannual residual circulation than in the interannual temperature. The magnitude of the modeled ozone variability was found to be similar to the observed variability, but the observed and modeled year-to-year deviations were, for the most part, uncorrelated, due to the fact that the model did not account for most of the QBO forcing and for some of the observed tropospheric changes.

A radiative transfer model and observed temperature and ozone profiles are used to compute three-dimensional fields of heating rates for the Northern Hemisphere during 1989 Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Experiment. For a clear atmosphere, an average cooling of 0.2 to 0.4 K/day is computed in the regions of the ER-2 aircraft during flight days. Tropospheric clouds will increase the cooling by 0.1 to 0.2 K/day. These cooling rates are in good agreement with the diabatic cooling estimated from N2O data, Net heating rather than cooling is computed in the area of the ozone 'minihole' which had its maximum on 1/31/89 and 2/1/89 in the vicinity of the mission. On 1/31/89 the 50 and 30 mb net heating rates are 0.1 to 0.2 K/day for clear skies, and 0.05 to 0.1 K/day for cloudy skies.

Trend analysis of the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition's ER-2 profile data reveals an average decrease in N2O on potential temperature isentropes which can be attributed to diabatic cooling of inner vortex air. This conclusion is independently supported by radiative transfer computations. Trends in ozone and water vapor over the same period are not consistent with the magnitude of the diabatic descent. After accounting for the diabatic motion (estimated from N2O), an additional 0.44 + or - 0.3 percent/day average anomalous O3 decrease above 440 K (about 20 km) is needed to balance the continuity equation. This ozone decrease suggests additional photochemical destruction of ozone in the presence of the high amounts of ClO observed during the mission. A 0.4 + or - 0.3 percent/day average anomalous increase in H2O is also observed near 420 K (about 18 km) which may be due to the evaporation of ice crystals falling from higher, colder stratospheric layers.

The residual mean circulation (RMC) formulation of zonally averaged transport in the middle atmosphere produces a circulation which depends on the distributions of net diabatic heating and temperature. Such circulations are from two temperature data sets, using the same radiative transfer code (Rosenfield et al. 1987). These circulations are then used to transport N2O in a photochemical model. The circulations and the resulting N2O distributions are notably different during the Northern Hemisphere winter, with that based on the NMC temperatures producing too much upward transport in the tropical stratosphere, as judged by comparison with the stratospheric and mesoscale sounder data. The experiment demonstrates that model calculations, in general, and perturbation assessments, in particular, are likely to be quite sensitive to the choice of input temperature data (where this is not computed self-consistently). It also reveals what appears to be a seasonally dependent bias in NMC zonally averaged temperatures with respect to those obtained from the LIMS instrument during 1978/1979.

In the past two years constituent transport and chemistry experiments have been performed using both simple single constituent models and more complex reservoir species models. Winds for these experiments have been taken from the data assimilation effort, Stratospheric Data Analysis System (STRATAN).

Radiative transit computations of heating rates utilizing data from the 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE) (Tuck et al., 1989) and the 1989 Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Experiment (AASE) (Turco et al., 1990) are described. Observed temperature and ozone profiles and a radiative transfer model are used to compute the heating rates for the Southern Hemisphere during AAOE and the Northern Hemisphere during AASE. The AASE average cooling rates computed inside the vortex are in good agreement with the diabatic cooling rates estimated from the ER-2 profile data for N2O for the AASE period (Schoeberl et al., 1989).

Monthly mean residual circulations were calculated from eight years of satellite data. The diabatic circulation is usually found to give a good approximation to the residual circulation, but this is not always the case. In particular, an example is shown at 60 deg S and 30 mbar where the diabatic and residual circulations show very different annual variations. Correlations between the vertical component of the residual circulation and temperature and ozone were computed. The computations indicate that yearly variations of temperatures in the tropics are under radiative control, except during stratospheric warmings. Interannual variations in seasonal mean temperatures are shown to be under dynamical control everywhere. Correlations between seasonal means of the vertical component of the residual circulation and ozone mixing ratios are consistent with what would be expected from the ozone variations being due to differences in the ozone transport, although transport effects cannot easily be distinguished from photochemical effects above the altitude of the ozone mixing ratio peak. Finally, variations in total ozone are examined in comparison with residual circulation variations. A one to two month phase lag is seen in the annual variation in the total ozone at 60 deg N with respect to the maximum downward residual motions. This phase lag is greater at 60 deg N than at 60 deg S. There is evidence at 60 deg S of a greater downward trend in the mean zonal ozone maxima than there is in the minima. A decreasing trend in the maximum descending motion is seen to accompany the ozone trend at 60 deg S.

Providing real time constituent data analysis and potential vorticity computations in support of the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Experiment (AASE) is discussed. National Meteorological Center (NMC) meteorological data and potential vorticity computations derived from NMC data are projected onto aircraft coordinates and provided to the investigators in real time. Balloon and satellite constituent data are composited into modified Lagrangian mean coordinates. Various measurements are intercompared, trends deduced and reconstructions of constituent fields performed.

An observationally based, mechanistic dynamical model is used to simulate the decline of total ozone during September and October for the years 1979 through 1986. Vertical velocities derived from observed stratospheric temperature changes and computed radiative heating rates are used to advect an ozone mixing ratio profile during the Antarctic spring period. An early August 1982 Syowa balloonsonde ozone profile is used to initialize the computations. The model reasonably simulates the September and October changes in total ozone, considering the uncertainties in the observed data and the radiative heating. The simulated decline is found to be very sensitive to the choice of initial ozone profile and to small changes in the radiative heating. The results of this study suggest that the dynamical hypothesis of the Antarctic ozone depletion is both quantitatively credible and consistent with the observed temperature changes.

Horizontal mixing coefficients K(yy) and K(yz) were computed using potential vorticity and gradients calculated from NMC data for geopotential heights and temperatures. It was found that the mid-latitude to polar mixing coefficients depend on the use of nongeostrophic winds, which yield K(yy) values which are mostly positive, whereas geostophic winds yield K(yy) values which were largely negative near the polar region. A comparison of the K(yy) values calculated from the potential vorticity fluxes and gradients with the K(yy) values calculated using the momentum balance between the flux of potential vorticity and the residual circulation has shown that the residual-circulation-balanced K(yy) values in the upper stratosphere were much larger than the values calculated by the present method. It is suggested that this difference is the result of breaking gravity waves in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere.

The global diabatic circulation is computed for the months of January, April, July and October over the altitude region 100 to 0.1 mb using an accurate troposphere-stratosphere radiative transfer model, SBUV and SME ozone data, and NMC temperatures. There is high correlation between the level of wave activity and the local departure of the atmosphere from radiative equilibrium. An excess in the globally averaged net stratospheric heating from 40 to 50 km is computed for all months, and a deficit from 50 to 60 km is computed during solstice. A 20 percent uniform reduction in ozone from 40 to 50 km, or a temperature perturbation with an increase of 5 K at 1 mb, will bring the atmosphere into global radiative equilibrium without significant impact on the diabatic circulation. In the transitional months of April and October, the net heating in the fall hemispheres are very similar, while substantial differences exist between the spring hemispheres.

For the first time, a four-dimensional stratospheric/tropospheric data assimilation system with a top analysis level at 0.4 mb has been developed and used to produce physically consistent gridded analyses for the stratosphere as well as the troposphere for a period during the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) and Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) (November 1978-May 1979). The system consists of a two-dimensional optimum interpolation analysis with 18 mandatory pressure levels and a 19-level fourth order stratospheric/tropospheric general circulation model with a horizontal resolution of 4 (latitude) by 5 deg (longitude) and a top at 0.3 mb. The system allows the utilization of stratospheric data including LIMS, Tiros-N retrievals, rocketsondes and vertical temperature profile radiometer soundings in addition to the other FGGE level 2b data. These data are analyzed every six hours. In order to examine the quality of the analyzed data, forecast experiments starting from different analyses are performed for the period of the stratospheric sudden warming of late February 1979. The results indicate that by employing the present four-dimensional assimilation approach, the medium-range forecast skill for this event is improved.