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Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa (HyCRISTAL) is a Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) project funded to deliver new understanding of East African climate change and its impacts, and to demonstrate use of climate change information in long-term decision-making in the region. Here, we briefly summarise key findings from HyCRISTAL so far on climate change, as well as key findings from the pan-African FCFA project “IMPALA” relevant to East Africa, both in the context of previous literature on the topic.

In this study, we investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over West and Central Africa (hereafter, WAF domain) as a function of global mean temperature with a focus on the implications of global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C according the Paris Agreement. We applied a scaling approach to capture changes in climate extremes with increase in global mean temperature in several subregions within the WAF domain: Western Sahel, Central Sahel, Eastern Sahel, Guinea Coast and Central Africa including Congo Basin. While there are several uncertainties and large ensemble spread in the projections of temperature and precipitation indices, most models show high-impact changes in climate extremes at subregional scale. At these smaller scales, temperature increases within the WAF domain are projected to be higher than the global mean temperature increase (at 1.5 degrees C and at 2 degrees C) and heat waves are expected to be more frequent and of longer duration. The most intense warming is observed over the drier regions of the Sahel, in the central Sahel and particularly in the eastern Sahel, where the precipitation and the soil moisture anomalies have the highest probability of projected increase at a global warming of 1.5 degrees C. Over the wetter regions of the Guinea Coast and Central Africa, models project a weak change in total precipitation and a decrease of the length of wet spells, while these two regions have the highest increase of heavy rainfall in the WAF domain at a global warming of 1.5 degrees C. Western Sahel is projected by 80% of the models to experience the strongest drying with a significant increase in the length of dry spells and a decrease in the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. This study suggests that the 'dry gets drier, wet gets wetter' paradigm is not valid within the WAF domain.

Scientists focusing on climate change in east Africa are interrogating climate models to provide more reliable information for decision-makers. Their burning questions include:\ud \ud • How will aspects of climate that are relevant to decision-makers change? Will heavy rain and droughts increase? Will the region get wetter or drier in future?\ud \ud • How will climate change impact on above- and below-ground water flow, the water levels of Lake Victoria, and underground water storage?\ud \ud • What are the implications for rural livelihoods, including those dependent on rain-fed agriculture and fishing? And what are the policy and governance considerations within these sectors?\ud \ud • How can cities design the most resilient water, sanitation and hygiene systems, in light of future climate change predictions?

Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will have significant impacts across east African society. Decision-makers need accessible information on likely climate change if they are to plan appropriately for this uncertain future. This factsheet considers how the climate is likely to change in east Africa, and the likely implications for: • water availability • sanitation • livelihoods, including agriculture and fresh water fisheries • hydropower • the potential for wind energy.