Search

Context. There is no consensus on the amplitude of the historical solar forcing. The estimated magnitude of the total solar irradiance difference between Maunder minimum and present time ranges from 0.1 to 6 W/m2 making uncertain the simulation of the past and future climate. One reason for this disagreement is the applied evolution of the quiet Sun brightness in the solar irradiance reconstruction models. This work addresses the role of the quiet Sun model choice and updated solar magnetic activity proxies on the solar forcing reconstruction. Aims. We aim to establish a plausible range of the solar irradiance variability on decadal to millennial time scales. Methods. The spectral solar irradiance (SSI) is calculated as a weighted sum of the contributions from sunspot umbra/penumbra, fac- ulae and quiet Sun, which are pre-calculated with the spectral synthesis code NESSY. We introduce activity belts of the contributions from sunspots and faculae and a new structure model for the quietest state of the Sun. We assume that the brightness of the quiet Sun varies in time proportionally to the secular (22-year smoothed) variation of the solar modulation potential. Results. A new reconstruction of the TSI and SSI covering the period 6000 BCE - 2015 CE is presented. The model simulates solar irradiance variability during the satellite era well. The TSI change between the Maunder and recent minima ranges between 3.7 and 4.5 W/m2 depending on the applied solar modulation potential. The implementation of a new quietest Sun model reduces, by approximately a factor of two, the relative solar forcing compared to the largest previous estimation, while the application of updated solar modulation potential increases the forcing difference between Maunder minimum and the present by 25-40 %., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics, 10 pages, 10 figures

Some of the natural variability in climate is understood to come from changes in the Sun. A key route whereby the Sun may influence surface climate is initiated in the tropical stratosphere by the absorption of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation by ozone, leading to a modification of the temperature and wind structures and consequently to the surface through changes in wave propagation and circulation. While changes in total, spectrally-integrated, solar irradiance lead to small variations in global mean surface temperature, the `top-down' UV effect preferentially influences on regional scales at mid-to-high latitudes with, in particular, a solar signal noted in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The amplitude of the UV variability is fundamental in determining the magnitude of the climate response but understanding of the UV variations has been challenged recently by measurements from the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite, which show UV solar cycle changes up to 10 times larger than previously thought. Indeed, climate models using these larger UV variations show a much greater response, similar to NAO observations. Here we present estimates of the ozone solar cycle response using a chemistry-climate model (CCM) in which the effects of transport are constrained by observations. Thus the photolytic response to different spectral solar irradiance (SSI) datasets can be isolated. Comparison of the results with the solar signal in ozone extracted from observational datasets yields significantly discriminable responses. According to our evaluation the SORCE UV dataset is not consistent with the observed ozone response whereas the smaller variations suggested by earlier satellite datasets, and by UV data from empirical solar models, are in closer agreement with the measured stratospheric variations. Determining the most appropriate SSI variability to apply in models..., Comment: This is the original version submitted to Nature Geoscience in July 2015 with the title "Ozone observations reveal lower solar cycle spectral variations", this has changed to the one given above. 4 Figures, Nature Geoscience, 2016, http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2640.html

The Sun and stars with low magnetic activity levels, become photometrically brighter when their activity increases. Magnetically more active stars display the opposite behaviour and get fainter when their activity increases. We reproduce the observed photometric trends in stellar variations with a model that treats stars as hypothetical Suns with coverage by magnetic features different from that of the Sun. The presented model attributes the variability of stellar spectra to the imbalance between the contributions from different components of the solar atmosphere, such as dark starspots and bright faculae. A stellar spectrum is calculated from spectra of the individual components, by weighting them with corresponding disc area coverages. The latter are obtained by extrapolating the solar dependences of spot and facular disc area coverages on chromospheric activity to stars with different levels of mean chromospheric activity. We have found that the contribution by starspots to the variability increases faster with chromospheric activity than the facular contribution. This causes the transition from faculae-dominated variability and direct activity--brightness correlation to spot-dominated variability and inverse activity--brightness correlation with increasing chromospheric activity level. We have shown that the regime of the variability also depends on the angle between the stellar rotation axis and the line-of-sight and on the latitudinal distribution of active regions on the stellar surface. Our model can be used as a tool to extrapolate the observed photometric variability of the Sun to Sun-like stars at different activity levels, which makes possible the direct comparison between solar and stellar irradiance data., Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy&Astrophysics

The lack of long and reliable time series of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements makes an accurate quantification of solar contributions to recent climate change difficult. Whereas earlier SSI observations and models provided a qualitatively consistent picture of the SSI variability, recent measurements by the SORCE satellite suggest a significantly stronger variability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral range and changes in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands in anti-phase with the solar cycle. A number of recent chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations have shown that this might have significant implications on the Earth's atmosphere. Motivated by these results, we summarize here our current knowledge of SSI variability and its impact on Earth's climate. We present a detailed overview of existing SSI measurements and provide thorough comparison of models available to date. SSI changes influence the Earth's atmosphere, both directly, through changes in shortwave (SW) heating and therefore, temperature and ozone distributions in the stratosphere, and indirectly, through dynamical feedbacks. We investigate these direct and indirect effects using several state-of-the art CCM simulations forced with measured and modeled SSI changes. A unique asset of this study is the use of a common comprehensive approach for an issue that is usually addressed separately by different communities. Omissis. Finally, we discuss the reliability of the available data and we propose additional coordinated work, first to build composite SSI datasets out of scattered observations and to refine current SSI models, and second, to run coordinated CCM experiments., Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in ACP

Context. Monitoring of the photometric and chromospheric HK emission data series of stars similar to the Sun in age and average activity level showed that there is an empirical correlation between the average stellar chromospheric activity level and the photometric variability. In general, more active stars show larger photometric variability. Interestingly, the measurements and reconstructions of the solar irradiance show that the Sun is significantly less variable than indicated by the empirical relationship. Aims. We aim to identify possible reasons for the Sun to be currently outside of this relationship. Methods. We employed different scenarios of solar HK emission and irradiance variability and compared them with available time series of Sun-like stars. Results. We show that the position of the Sun on the diagram of photometric variability versus chromospheric activity changes with time. The present solar position is different from its temporal mean position as the satellite era of continuous solar irradiance measurements has accidentally coincided with a period of unusually high and stable solar activity. Our analysis suggests that although present solar variability is significantly smaller than indicated by the stellar data, the temporal mean solar variability might be in agreement with the stellar data. We propose that the continuation of the photometric program and its expansion to a larger stellar sample will ultimately allow us to constrain the historical solar variability., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy&Astrophysics

We analyze the variability of the spectral solar irradiance during the period from 7 January, 2010 until 20 January, 2010 as measured by the Herzberg channel (190-222 nm) of the Large Yield RAdiometer (LYRA) onboard PROBA2. In this period of time observations by the LYRA nominal unit experienced degradation and the signal produced by the Herzberg channel frequently jumped from one level to another. Both these factors significantly complicates the analysis. We present the algorithm which allowed us to extract the solar variability from the LYRA data and compare the results with SORCE/SOLSTICE measurements and with modeling based on the Code for the Solar Irradiance (COSI).

The variable Sun is the most likely candidate for natural forcing of past climate change on time scales of 50 to 1000 years. Evidence for this understanding is that the terrestrial climate correlates positively with solar activity. During the past 10,000 years, the Sun has experienced substantial variations in activity and there have been numerous attempts to reconstruct solar irradiance. While there is general agreement on how solar forcing varied during the last several hundred years --- all reconstructions are proportional to the solar activity --- there is scientific controversy on the magnitude of solar forcing. We present a reconstruction of the Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance covering 130 nm--10 $\mu$m from 1610 to the present with annual resolution and for the Holocene with 22-year resolution. We assume that the minimum state of the quiet Sun in time corresponds to the observed quietest area on the present Sun. Then we use available long-term proxies of the solar activity, which are $^{10}$Be isotope concentrations in ice cores and 22-year smoothed neutron monitor data, to interpolate between the present quiet Sun and the minimum state of the quiet Sun. This determines the long-term trend in the solar variability which is then superposed with the 11-year activity cycle calculated from the sunspot number. The time-dependent solar spectral irradiance from about 7000 BC to the present is then derived using a state-of-the-art radiation code. We derive a total and spectral solar irradiance that was substantially lower during the Maunder minimum than observed today. The difference is remarkably larger than other estimations published in the recent literature. The magnitude of the solar UV variability, which indirectly affects climate is also found to exceed previous estimates. We discuss in details the assumptions which leaded us to this conclusion., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy&Astrophysics

Context. The solar irradiance is known to change on time scales of minutes to decades, and it is suspected that its substantial fluctua- tions are partially responsible for climate variations. Aims. We are developing a solar atmosphere code that allows the physical modeling of the entire solar spectrum composed of quiet Sun and active regions. This code is a tool for modeling the variability of the solar irradiance and understanding its influence on Earth. Methods. We exploit further development of the radiative transfer code COSI that now incorporates the calculation of molecular lines. We validated COSI under the conditions of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) against the synthetic spectra calculated with the ATLAS code. The synthetic solar spectra were also calculated in non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) and compared to the available measured spectra. In doing so we have defined the main problems of the modeling, e.g., the lack of opacity in the UV part of the spectrum and the inconsistency in the calculations of the visible continuum level, and we describe a solution to these problems. Results. The improved version of COSI allows us to reach good agreement between the calculated and observed solar spectra as measured by SOLSTICE and SIM onboard the SORCE satellite and ATLAS 3 mission operated from the Space Shuttle. We find that NLTE effects are very important for the modeling of the solar spectrum even in the visual part of the spectrum and for its variability over the entire solar spectrum. In addition to the strong effect on the UV part of the spectrum, NLTE effects influence the concentration of the negative ion of hydrogen, which results in a significant change of the visible continuum level and the irradiance variability., Comment: 14 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy&Astrophysics