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We provide a purely dynamical global map of the non-axisymmetric structure of the Milky Way disk. For this, we exploit the information contained within the in-plane motions of disk stars from Gaia DR3 to adjust a model of the Galactic potential, including a detailed parametric form for the bar and spiral arms. We explore the parameter space of the non-axisymmetric components with the backward integration method, first adjusting the bar model to selected peaks of the stellar velocity distribution in the Solar neighbourhood, and then adjusting the amplitude, phase, pitch angle and pattern speed of spiral arms to the median radial velocity as a function of position within the disk. We check a posteriori that our solution also qualitatively reproduces various other features of the global non-axisymmetric phase-space distribution, including most of the moving groups and phase-space ridges despite those not being primarily used in the adjustment. This fiducial model has a bar with pattern speed $37~{\rm kms}^{-1}{\rm kpc}^{-1}$ and two spiral modes that are two-armed and three-armed respectively. The two-armed spiral mode has a $\sim 25~\%$ local contrast surface density, a low pattern speed of $13.1~{\rm kms}^{-1}{\rm kpc}^{-1}$, and matches the location of the Crux-Scutum, Local and Outer arm segments. The three-armed spiral mode has a $\sim 9~\%$ local contrast density, a slightly higher pattern speed of $16.4~{\rm kms}^{-1}{\rm kpc}^{-1}$, and matches the location of the Carina-Sagittarius and Perseus arm segments. The Galactic bar, with a higher pattern speed than both spiral modes, has recently disconnected from those two arms. The fiducial non-axisymmetric potential presented in this paper, reproducing most non-axisymmetric signatures detected in the stellar kinematics of the Milky Way disk, can henceforth be used to confidently integrate orbits within the Galactic plane., Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures, submitted to Astronomy and Astrophysics, comments welcome! Code available at https://github.com/yrkhalil/SPIBACK

Mission-time Linear Temporal Logic (MLTL) is rapidly increasing in popularity as a specification logic, e.g., for runtime verification, model checking, and other formal methods, driving a need for a larger tool base for analysis of this logic. To that end, we formalize formula progression for MLTL in the theorem prover Isabelle/HOL. As groundwork, we first formalize the syntax and semantics for MLTL as well as a verified library of key properties, including useful custom induction rules. We envision this library as being useful for future formalizations involving MLTL and as serving as a reference point for theoretical work using or developing MLTL. We then formalize the algorithm and correctness theorems for formula progression, following the literature. Along the way, we identify and fix several errors and gaps in the source material. A main motivation for our work is tool validation; we ensure the executability of our algorithms by using Isabelle's built-in functionality to generate a code export. This enables both a formal basis for correctly evaluating MLTL formulas and for automatically generating provably correct benchmarks for evaluating tools that reason about MLTL.

Mechanical degradation in electrode materials during successive electrochemical cycling is critical for battery lifetime and aging properties. A common strategy to mitigate electrode mechanical degradation is to suppress the volume variation induced by Li/Na intercalation/deintercalation, thereby designing strain-less electrodes. In this study, we investigate the electrochemically-induced volume variation in layered and spinel compounds used in Li-ion and Na-ion battery electrode materials through density functional theory computations. Specifically, we propose to decompose the volume variation into electronic, ionic, and structural contributions. Based on this analysis, we suggest methods to separately influence or control each contribution through strategies such as chemical substitution, doping, and polymorphism. Altogether, we conclude that volume variations can be controlled by designing either mechanically hard or compact electrode materials.

In convection-dominated flows, robustness of the spatial discretisation is a key property. While Interior Penalty Galerkin (IPG) methods already proved efficient in the situation of large mesh Peclet numbers, Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) methods are able to reduce the convection-dominance by moving the mesh. In this paper, we introduce and analyse a velocity-based moving mesh discontinuous Galerkin method for the solution of the linear advection-diffusion equation. By introducing a smooth parameterized velocity $\tilde{V}$ that separates the flow into a mean flow, also called moving mesh velocity, and a remaining advection field $V-\tilde{V}$, we made a convergence analysis based on the smoothness of the mesh velocity. Furthermore, the reduction of the advection speed improves the stability of an explicit time-stepping and the use of the nonconservative ALE formulation changes the coercivity condition. Finally, by adapting the existing robust error criteria to this moving mesh situation, we derived robust \textit{a posteriori} error criteria that describe the potentially small deviation to the mean flow and include the information of a transition towards $V=\tilde{V}$., Comment: 20 pages, 2 figures, Submitted to SINUM on 16/05/2024, not yet reviewed (15/05/2024)

It is well established that black holes reside in the central regions of virtually all types of known galaxies. Recent observational and numerical studies however challenge this picture, suggesting that intermediate-mass black holes in dwarf galaxies may be found on orbits far from the center. In particular, constant-density cores minimize orbital energy losses due to dynamical friction, and allow black holes to settle on stable off-center orbits. Using controlled simulations, we study the dynamics of off-center black holes in dwarf galaxies with such cores. We propose a new scenario to describe off-center mergers of massive black holes, starting with a Jacobi capture. We focus on initially circular and co-planar black hole orbits and explore a large parameter space of black hole masses and orbital parameters. We find that Jacobi captures are a complex and chaotic phenomenon that occurs in about 13% of cases in this simplified setup, and we quantify how the likelihood of capture depends on the simulation parameters. We note that this percentage is likely an upper limit of the general case. Nevertheless, we show that Jacobi captures in cored dwarf galaxies can facilitate the formation of off-center black hole binaries, and that this process is sufficiently common to have a substantial effect on black hole growth. While our setup only allows for temporary captures, we expect dissipative forces from baryons and post-Newtonian corrections to maintain the captures over time and to lead to the formation of stable binary systems. This motivates future studies of the effectiveness of such dissipative forces, within stripped nuclei or globular clusters, in forming stable bound systems., Comment: 16 pages, 17 figures and 2 tables. Accepted for publication in A&A

The foundations of formal models for epistemic and doxastic logics often rely on certain logical aspects of modal logics such as S4 and S4.2 and their semantics; however, the corresponding mathematical results are often stated in papers or books without including a detailed proof, or a reference to it, that allows the reader to convince themselves about them. We reinforce the foundations of the epistemic logic S4.2 for countably many agents by formalizing its soundness and completeness results for the class of all weakly-directed pre-orders in the proof assistant Isabelle/HOL. This logic corresponds to the knowledge fragment, i.e., the logic for formulas that may only include knowledge modalities in Stalnaker's system for knowledge and belief. Additionally, we formalize the equivalence between two axiomatizations for S4, which are used depending on the type of semantics given to the modal operators, as one is commonly used for the relational semantics, and the other one arises naturally from the topological semantics., Comment: In Proceedings LSFA/HCVS 2023, arXiv:2404.13672

Placed slightly out of dynamical equilibrium, an isolated stellar system quickly returns towards a steady virialized state. We study this process of collisionless relaxation using the matrix method of linear response theory. We show that the full phase space distribution of the final virialized state can be recovered directly from the disequilibrium initial conditions, without the need to compute the time evolution of the system. This shortcut allows us to determine the final virialized configuration with minimal computational effort. Complementing this result, we develop tools to model the system's full time evolution in the linear approximation. In particular, we show that moments of the velocity distribution can be efficiently computed using a generalized moment matrix. We apply our linear methods to study the relaxation of energy-truncated Hernquist spheres, mimicking the tidal stripping of a cuspy dark matter subhalo. Comparison of our linear predictions against controlled, isolated $N$-body simulations shows agreement at per cent level for the parts of the system where a linear response to the perturbation is expected. We find that relaxation generates a tangential velocity anisotropy in the intermediate regions, despite the initial disequilibrium state having isotropic kinematics. Our results also strengthen the case for relaxation depleting the amplitude of the density cusp, without affecting its asymptotic slope. Finally, we compare the linear theory against $N$-body simulation of tidal stripping on a radial orbit, confirming that the theory still accurately predicts density and velocity dispersion profiles for most of the system., Comment: 19 pages, 5 figures. Published in ApJ (updated version after referee review)

The Collatz and $abc$ conjectures, both well known and thoroughly studied, appear to be largely unrelated at first sight. We show that assuming the $abc$ conjecture true is helpful to improve the lower bound of integers initiating a particular type of Collatz sequences, namely finite sequences of a given length where all terms but one are odd with the usual ``shortcut'' form. To obtain sharper bounds in this context, we are led to consider a small subset of the $abc$-hits. Then, it turns out that Collatz iterations as well as Wieferich primes may be used to find large triples in this subset.

Disc stars from the Gaia DR3 RVS catalogue are selected to explore the phase spiral as a function of position in the Galaxy. The data reveal a two-armed phase spiral pattern in the local $z-v_z$ plane inside the solar radius, which appears clearly when colour-coded by $\langle v_R \rangle (z,v_z)$: this is characteristic of a breathing mode that can in principle be produced by in-plane non-axisymmetric perturbations. We note the phase spiral pattern becomes single armed outside the solar radius. When a realistic analytic model with an axisymmetric background potential plus a steadily rotating bar and 2-armed spiral arms as perturbation is used to perform particle test integrations, the pseudo stars get a prominent spiral pattern in the $\langle v_R \rangle$ map in the $x-y$ plane. Additionally, clear breathing mode evidence at a few $\rm{kms}^{-1}$ level can be seen in the $\langle v_z \rangle$ map on the $x-z$ plane, confirming that such breathing modes are non-negligible in the joint presence of a bar and spiral arms. However, no phase-spiral is perceptible in the $(z, v_z)$ plane. When an initial vertical perturbation is added to all pseudo stars to carry out the simulation, the one-armed phase spirals can clearly be seen 500~Myr after the perturbation and gradually disappear inside-out. Finally, we show as a proof of concept how a toy model of a time-varying non-axisymmetric in-plane perturbation with varying amplitude and pattern speed can produce a strong two-armed phase-spiral. We conclude a time-varying strong internal perturbation together with an external vertical perturbation could perhaps explain the transition between the two-armed and one-armed phase-spirals around the Solar radius., Comment: 14 pages, 15 figures, accepted by MNRAS

We model the response of spherical, non-rotating Milky Way (MW) dark matter and stellar halos to the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) using the matrix method of linear response theory. Our computations reproduce the main features of the dark halo response from simulations. We show that these features can be well separated by a harmonic decomposition: the large scale over/underdensity in the halo (associated with its reflex motion) corresponds to the $\ell=1$ terms, and the local overdensity to the $\ell\geq2$ multipoles. Moreover, the dark halo response is largely dominated by the first order 'forcing' term, with little influence from self-gravity. This makes it difficult to constrain the underlying velocity distribution of the dark halo using the observed response of the stellar halo, but it allows us to investigate the response of stellar halo models with various velocity anisotropies: a tangential (respectively radial) halo produces a shallower (respectively stronger) response. We also show that only the local wake is responsible for these variations, the reflex motion being solely dependent on the MW potential. Therefore, we identify the structure (orientation and winding) of the in-plane quadrupolar ($m=2$) response as a potentially good probe of the stellar halo anisotropy. Finally, our method allows us to tentatively relate the wake strength and shape to resonant effects: the strong radial response could be associated with the inner Lindblad resonance, and the weak tangential one with corotation., Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures. Submitted to ApJ

Globular clusters contain a finite number of stars. As a result, they inevitably undergo secular evolution (`relaxation') causing their mean distribution function (DF) to evolve on long timescales. On one hand, this long-term evolution may be interpreted as driven by the accumulation of local deflections along each star's mean field trajectory -- so-called `non-resonant relaxation'. On the other hand, it can be thought of as driven by non-local, collectively dressed and resonant couplings between stellar orbits, a process termed `resonant relaxation'. In this paper we consider a model globular cluster represented by a spherical, isotropic isochrone DF, and compare in detail the predictions of both resonant and non-resonant relaxation theories against tailored direct $N$-body simulations. In the space of orbital actions (namely the radial action and total angular momentum), we find that both resonant and non-resonant theories predict the correct morphology for the secular evolution of the cluster's DF, although non-resonant theory over-estimates the amplitude of the relaxation rate by a factor ${\sim 2}$. We conclude that the secular relaxation of hot isotropic spherical clusters is not dominated by collectively amplified large-scale potential fluctuations, despite the existence of a strong ${\ell = 1}$ damped mode. Instead, collective amplification affects relaxation only marginally even on the largest scales. The predicted contributions to relaxation from smaller scale fluctuations are essentially the same from resonant and non-resonant theories., Comment: 26 pages, 14 figures, submitted to MNRAS

We study the bar instability in collisionless, rotating, anisotropic, stellar systems, using N-body simulations and also the matrix technique for calculation of modes with the perturbed collisionless Boltzmann equation. These methods are applied to spherical systems with an initial Plummer density distribution, but modified kinematically in two ways: the velocity distribution is tangentially anisotropic, using results of Dejonghe, and the system is set in rotation by reversing the velocities of a fraction of stars in various regions of phase space, a la Lynden-Bell. The aim of the N-body simulations is first to survey the parameter space, and, using those results, to identify regions of phase space (by radius and orbital inclination) which have the most important influence on the bar instability. The matrix method is then used to identify the resonant interactions in the system which have the greatest effect on the growth rate of a bar. Complementary series of N-body simulations examine these processes in relation to the evolving frequency distribution and the pattern speed. Finally, the results are synthesised with an existing theoretical framework, and used to consider the old question of constructing a stability criterion., Comment: 17 pages, 18 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

In the Gaia era, understanding the effects of the perturbations of the Galactic disc is of major importance in the context of dynamical modelling. In this theoretical paper we extend previous work in which, making use of the epicyclic approximation, the linearized Boltzmann equation had been used to explicitly compute, away from resonances, the perturbed distribution function of a Galactic thin-disc population in the presence of a non-axisymmetric perturbation of constant amplitude. Here we improve this theoretical framework in two distinct ways in the new code that we present. First, we use better estimates for the action-angle variables away from quasi-circular orbits, computed from the AGAMA software, and we present an efficient routine to numerically re-express any perturbing potential in these coordinates with a typical accuracy at the per cent level. The use of more accurate action estimates allows us to identify resonances such as the outer 1:1 bar resonance at higher azimuthal velocities than the outer Lindblad resonance (OLR), and to extend our previous theoretical results well above the Galactic plane, where we explicitly show how they differ from the epicyclic approximation. In particular, the displacement of resonances in velocity space as a function of height can in principle constrain the 3D structure of the Galactic potential. Second, we allow the perturbation to be time dependent, thereby allowing us to model the effect of transient spiral arms or a growing bar. The theoretical framework and tools presented here will be useful for a thorough analytical dynamical modelling of the complex velocity distribution of disc stars as measured by past and upcoming Gaia data releases., Comment: 16 pages, 15 figures, conclusions qualitatively unchanged, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics

Power grids are becoming more complex to operate in the digital age given the current energy transition to cope with climate change. As a result, real-time decision-making is getting more challenging as the human operator has to deal with more information, more uncertainty, more applications, and more coordination. While supervision has been primarily used to help them make decisions over the last decades, it cannot reasonably scale up anymore. There is a great need for rethinking the human-machine interface under more unified and interactive frameworks. Taking advantage of the latest developments in Human-Machine Interface and Artificial Intelligence, we expose our vision of a new assistant framework relying on an hypervision interface and greater bidirectional interaction. We review the known principles of decision-making driving our assistant design alongside with its supporting assistance functions. We finally share some guidelines to make progress towards the development of such an assistant.

Malaria transmission in Madagascar is highly heterogeneous, exhibiting spatial, seasonal and long-term trends. Previous efforts to map malaria risk in Madagascar used prevalence data from Malaria Indicator Surveys. These cross-sectional surveys, conducted during the high transmission season most recently in 2013 and 2016, provide nationally representative prevalence data but cover relatively short time frames. Conversely, monthly case data are collected at health facilities but suffer from biases, including incomplete reporting. We combined survey and case data to make monthly maps of prevalence between 2013 and 2016. Health facility catchments were estimated and incidence surfaces, environmental and socioeconomic covariates, and survey data informed a Bayesian prevalence model. Prevalence estimates were consistently high in the coastal regions and low in the highlands. Prevalence was lowest in 2014 and peaked in 2015, highlighting the importance of estimates between survey years. Seasonality was widely observed. Similar multi-metric approaches may be applicable across sub-Saharan Africa.

A computational system is called autonomous if it is able to make its own decisions, or take its own actions, without human supervision or control. The capability and spread of such systems have reached the point where they are beginning to touch much of everyday life. However, regulators grapple with how to deal with autonomous systems, for example how could we certify an Unmanned Aerial System for autonomous use in civilian airspace? We here analyse what is needed in order to provide verified reliable behaviour of an autonomous system, analyse what can be done as the state-of-the-art in automated verification, and propose a roadmap towards developing regulatory guidelines, including articulating challenges to researchers, to engineers, and to regulators. Case studies in seven distinct domains illustrate the article., Comment: 66 pages

Compared to barchan dunes, the morphodynamics of linear dunes that elongate on a non-erodible bed is barely investigated by means of laboratory experiments or numerical simulations. Using a cellular automaton model, we study the elongation of a solitary linear dune from a sand source and show that it can reach a steady state. This steady state is analyzed to understand the physical processes at work along the dune. Crest reversals together with avalanche processes control the shape of transverse sections. Dune width and height decrease almost linearly with distance downstream until the minimum size for dunes. This is associated with a constant sand loss along the dune, which eventually compensates for the sediment influx and sets the dune length. This sand budget is discussed to distinguish an elongating linear dune from a barchan dune and to explain the complexity of linear dune fields in nature., Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures

Dune fields are commonly associated with periodic patterns that are among the most recognizable landscapes on Earth and other planetary bodies. However, in zones of limited sediment supply, where periodic dunes elongate and align in the direction of the resultant sand flux, there has been no attempt to explain the emergence of such a regular pattern. Here, we show, by means of numerical simulations, that the elongation growth mechanism does not produce a pattern with a specific wavelength. Periodic elongating dunes appear to be a juxtaposition of individual structures, the arrangement of which is due to regular landforms at the border of the field acting as boundary conditions. This includes, among others, dune patterns resulting from bed instability, or the crestline reorganization induced by dune migration. The wavelength selection in fields of elongating dunes therefore reflects the interdependence of dune patterns over the course of their evolution., Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures

Two-dimensional carbides and nitrides of transition metals, known as MXenes, are a fast-growing family of 2D materials that draw attention as energy storage materials. So far, MXenes are mainly prepared from Al-containing MAX phases (where A = Al) by Al dissolution in F-containing solution, but most other MAX phases have not been explored. Here, a redox-controlled A-site-etching of MAX phases in Lewis acidic melts is proposed and validated by the synthesis of various MXenes from unconventional MAX phase precursors with A elements Si, Zn, and Ga. A negative electrode of Ti3C2 MXene material obtained through this molten salt synthesis method delivers a Li+ storage capacity up to 738 C g-1 (205 mAh g-1) with high-rate performance and pseudocapacitive-like electrochemical signature in 1M LiPF6 carbonate-based electrolyte. MXene prepared from this molten salt synthesis route offer opportunities as high-rate negative electrode material for electrochemical energy storage applications.

Rotation is ubiquitous in the Universe, and recent kinematic surveys have shown that early type galaxies and globular clusters are no exception. Yet the linear response of spheroidal rotating stellar systems has seldom been studied. This paper takes a step in this direction by considering the behaviour of spherically symmetric systems with differential rotation. Specifically, the stability of several sequences of Plummer spheres is investigated, in which the total angular momentum, as well as the degree and flavour of anisotropy in the velocity space are varied. To that end, the response matrix method is customised to spherical rotating equilibria. The shapes, pattern speeds and growth rates of the systems' unstable modes are computed. Detailed comparisons to appropriate N-body measurements are also presented. The marginal stability boundary is charted in the parameter space of velocity anisotropy and rotation rate. When rotation is introduced, two sequences of growing modes are identified corresponding to radially and tangentially-biased anisotropic spheres respectively. For radially anisotropic spheres, growing modes occur on two intersecting surfaces (in the parameter space of anisotropy and rotation), which correspond to fast and slow modes, depending on the net rotation rate. Generalised, approximate stability criteria are finally presented., Comment: 18 pages, 20 figures. Submitted to MNRAS

Many malaria-endemic areas experience seasonal fluctuations in case incidence as Anopheles mosquito and Plasmodium parasite life cycles respond to changing environmental conditions. While most existing maps of malaria seasonality use fixed thresholds of rainfall, temperature, and/or vegetation indices to identify suitable transmission months, we develop a statistical modelling framework for characterising the seasonal patterns derived directly from case data. The procedure involves a spatiotemporal regression model for estimating the monthly proportions of total annual cases and an algorithm to identify operationally relevant characteristics such as the transmission start and peak months. A seasonality index combines the monthly proportion estimates and existing estimates of annual case incidence to provide a summary of "how seasonal" locations are relative to their surroundings. An advancement upon past seasonality mapping endeavours is the presentation of the uncertainty associated with each map, which will enable policymakers to make more statistically sound decisions. The methodology is illustrated using health facility data from Madagascar.

Most terrestrial sand seas form at `horse' latitudes, where the wind direction exhibits seasonal variation. Here, we extend the two-dimensional linear stability analysis of a flat sand bed associated with a unidirectional wind to the three-dimensional case in order to account for multidirectional wind regimes. Focusing on the simplest case of bidirectional flow regimes, we show that the transition from transverse to oblique or longitudinal patterns is controlled by the transport ratio and the divergence angle between the two flows. Our predictions agree with previous results for dune orientation, and also provide a wider range of possible alignments depending on flow strength, especially when the two winds are perpendicular, at which the transition occurs. This analysis also predicts the selected pattern wavelength, which either decreases close to the transition angle for strong winds, due to a geometric effect, or increases at low winds, when the bed slope affects the transport. This theoretical analysis is complemented by analogous subaqueous experiments, where bedforms are submitted to alternate water flows. For transverse bedforms, the experimental data validate the model at strong flows, providing evidence for the predicted geometric effect, but also for the increase of the wavelength close to the transport threshold. For longitudinal bedforms, a discrepancy is observed, which we interpret as the sign of enhanced nonlinearities induced by the development of slip faces when the flow alternately blows on both sides of the dune., Comment: 27 pages, 12 figures

We present here a SAT-based framework for LTLf (Linear Temporal Logic on Finite Traces) satisfiability checking. We use propositional SAT-solving techniques to construct a transition system for the input LTLf formula; satisfiability checking is then reduced to a path-search problem over this transition system. Furthermore, we introduce CDLSC (Conflict-Driven LTLf Satisfiability Checking), a novel algorithm that leverages information produced by propositional SAT solvers from both satisfiability and unsatisfiability results. Experimental evaluations show that CDLSC outperforms all other existing approaches for LTLf satisfiability checking, by demonstrating an approximate four-fold speedup compared to the second-best solver.

In this paper, we consider the one-to-one correspondence between a 2-adic integer and its parity sequence under iteration of the so-called "3x+1" map. First, we prove a new formula for the inverse transform. Next, we briefly review what is known about the induced automorphism and study its dynamics on the 2-adic integers. We find that it is ergodic on many small odd invariant sets, and that it has two odd cycles of period 2 in addition to its two odd fixed points. Finally, a plane embedding is presented, for which we establish affine self-similarity by using functional equations., Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures. Various improvements

If the symmetry breaking responsible for axion dark matter production occurs during the radiation-dominated epoch in the early Universe, then this produces large amplitude perturbations that collapse into dense objects known as axion miniclusters. The characteristic minicluster mass, $M_0$, is set by the mass inside the horizon when axion oscillations begin. For the QCD axion $M_0\sim 10^{-10}M_\odot$, however for an axion-like particle $M_0$ can approach $M_\odot$ or higher. Using the Press-Schechter formalism we compute the mass function of halos formed by hierarchical structure formation from these seeds. We compute the concentrations and collapse times of these halos and show that they can grow to be as massive as $10^6M_0$. Within the halos, miniclusters likely remain tightly bound, and we compute their gravitational microlensing signal taking the fraction of axion dark matter collapsed into miniclusters, $f_{\rm MC}$, as a free parameter. A large value of $f_{\rm MC}$ severely weakens constraints on axion scenarios from direct detection experiments. We take into account the non-Gaussian distribution of sizes of miniclusters and determine how this effects the number of microlensing events. We develop the tools to consider microlensing by an extended mass function of non-point-like objects, and use microlensing data to place the first observational constraints on $f_{\rm MC}$. This opens a new window for the potential discovery of the axion., Comment: 27 pages, 23 figures, follow up paper to 1701.04787. v2 matches published version. Appendix added on non-Gaussian effects, discussion extended

Much work has been done attempting to understand the dynamic behaviour of the so-called "3x+1" function. It is known that finite sequences of iterations with a given length and a given number of odd terms have some combinatorial properties modulo powers of two. In this paper, we formulate a new hypothesis asserting that the first terms of those sequences have a lower bound which depends on the binary entropy of the "ones-ratio". It is in agreement with all computations so far. Furthermore it implies accurate upper bounds for the total stopping time and the maximum excursion of an integer. Theses results are consistent with two previous stochastic models of the 3x+1 problem., Comment: 17 pages, added more simple formulation of LBH, completed table 1, to appear in Functiones et Approximatio, Commentarii Mathematici