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As biological invasions continue to increase globally, eradication programs have been undertaken at significant cost, often without consideration of relevant ecological theory. Theoretical fisheries models have shown that harvest can actually increase the equilibrium size of a population, and uncontrolled studies and anecdotal reports have documented population increases in response to invasive species removal (akin to fisheries harvest). Both findings may be driven by high levels of juvenile survival associated with low adult abundance, often referred to as overcompensation. Here we show that in a coastal marine ecosystem, an eradication program resulted in stage-specific overcompensation and a 30-fold, single-year increase in the population of an introduced predator. Data collected concurrently from four adjacent regional bays without eradication efforts showed no similar population increase, indicating a local and not a regional increase. Specifically, the eradication program had inadvertently reduced the control of recruitment by adults via cannibalism, thereby facilitating the population explosion. Mesocosm experiments confirmed that adult cannibalism of recruits was size-dependent and could control recruitment. Genomic data show substantial isolation of this population and implicate internal population dynamics for the increase, rather than recruitment from other locations. More broadly, this controlled experimental demonstration of stage-specific overcompensation in an aquatic system provides an important cautionary message for eradication efforts of species with limited connectivity and similar life histories.

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Seagrass wasting disease, caused by parasitic slime nets in the genus Labyrinthula , affects seagrasses globally with outbreaks occurring at local to regional scales. Though prior research showed variation in pathogenicity across strains, little is known about the broad-scale diversity and biogeography of Labyrinthula species. We used targeted amplicon-based high throughput sequencing (HTS) to examine the phylogeography of Labyrinthula species associated with two seagrass hosts (Zostera marina , Thalassia testudinum) collected from across North America, including locations in the USA and Mexico. After testing 189 seagrass blades from 16 locations across North America, Labyrinthula spp. were detected at 14 sites with PCR prevalence ranging from 20 - 100%. We generated 10,936,628 sequences for analyses, which yielded 25 unique Labyrinthula amplicon sequence variants (ASVs), which were phylogenetically grouped into three species of Labyrinthula. All three species detected were previously identified as pathogenic, indicating that Labyrinthula species capable of causing wasting disease are present across these regions, including in locations where disease outbreaks have not been reported. The highest strain level variation was detected in Florida, which is likely due to larger sample sizes from Florida compared to other sampling locations. Assessing the phylogeography of strains was limited by sample size in each location, but indicates that the genetic connectivity of strains appears high, with location and seagrass host being the most important factors explaining the variation in Labyrinthula strains detected. The high connectivity, but low overall species diversity of Labyrinthula , is consistent with a parasite that is a host generalist. Given the high connectivity of strains and broad geographic range of pathogenic Labyrinthula reported here, this study provides valuable insight regarding how parasite diversity impacts seagrass disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many factors affect an organism's microbiome including its environment, proximity to other organisms, and physiological condition. As filter feeders, bivalves have highly plastic microbiomes that are especially influenced by the surrounding seawater, yet they also maintain a unique core set of microbes. Using 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing, we characterized the bacterial microbiomes of four species of bivalves native to the Mid-Atlantic East Coast of North America: Crassostrea virginica, Macoma balthica, Ameritella mitchelli, and Ischadium recurvum and assessed the impact of their external environment, internal parasites, and size on their microbial communities. We found significant differences in bacterial amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) across species, with each species harboring a core ASV present across all individuals. We further found that some C. virginica co-cultured with I. recurvum had high abundances of the I. recurvum core ASV. We identified ASVs associated with infection by the parasites Perkinsus marinus and Zaops ostreum as well others associated with bivalve size. Several of these ASV are candidates for further investigation as potential probiotics, as they were found positively correlated with bivalve size and health. This research represents the first description of the microbiomes of A. mitchelli, I. recurvum, and M. balthica. We document that all four species have highly plastic microbiomes, while maintaining certain core bacteria, with important implications for growth, health, and adaptation to new environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strategies for managing biological invasions are often based on the premise that characteristics of invading species and the invaded environment are key predictors of the invader's distribution. Yet, for either biological traits or environmental characteristics to explain distribution, adequate time must have elapsed for species to spread to all potential habitats. We compiled and analyzed a database of natural history and ecological traits of 138 coastal marine invertebrate species, the environmental conditions at sites to which they have been introduced, and their date of first introduction. We found that time since introduction explained the largest fraction (20%) of the variability in non-native range size, while traits of the species and environmental variables had significant, but minimal, influence on non-native range size. The positive relationship between time since introduction and range size indicates that non-native marine invertebrate species are not at equilibrium and are still spreading, posing a major challenge for management of coastal ecosystems.

Introduction: Global shipping has accelerated the spread of non-native species. Factors such as environmental filtering and interactions with local biota can affect invasion likelihood, yet their relative contribution to predicting invasion risk remains unresolved. To test how abiotic filters and an experimentally-derived measure of biotic resistance interact with propagule pressure, we developed an integratedmodel to evaluate their relative effects on invasion risk of marine biofouling organisms to different focal port regions. We predicted that environmental filtering impacts invasion risk when fewer but stronger connections are part of the network. Further, predation is a mechanism of biotic resistance, which can reduce invasion risk, with most pronounced effects predicted in the tropics that decline at higher latitudes. Methods: We examined shipping traffic and predation impact at three coastal bioregions spanning 47-degrees of latitude al range in the Northeast Pacific (Alaska, California, and Panama). We used vessel traffic databases to characterize propagule pressure and construct a worldwide port network of marine shipping routes and ports. Environmental resistance was estimated using temperature and salinity data from donor and recipient regions. We further used standardized predator exposure experiments to quantify predation impact on fouling community biomass as an estimate of potential for biotic resistance. We then expanded on existing models of relative invasion risk to incorporate the probability that propagules will survive predation by local predators and overcome environmental filtering to generate a predicted invasion risk for each port. Results: Environmental filtering in all regions and predation pressure in the tropics worked to reduce the invasion risk, resulting in markedly different cumulative risk profiles over time among regions. Discussion: In an increasingly connected world withmore vessel traffic, our results highlight thatwhile the number and distribution of shipping routes are important to understand risk, abiotic and biotic filters can modify model predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biotic interactions play a critical role in shaping patterns of global biodiversity. While several macroecological studies provide evidence for stronger predation in tropical regions compared with higher latitudes, results are variable even within the tropics, and the drivers of this variability are not well understood. We conducted two complementary standardized experiments on communities of sessile marine invertebrate prey and their associated predators to test for spatial and seasonal differences in predation across the tropical Atlantic and Pacific coastlines of Panama. We further tested the prediction that higher predator diversity contributes to stronger impacts of predation, using both direct observations of predators and data from extensive reef surveys. Our results revealed substantially higher predation rates and stronger effects of predators on prey in the Pacific than in the Atlantic, demonstrating striking variation within tropical regions. While regional predator diversity was high in the Atlantic, functional diversity at local scales was markedly low. Peak predation strength in the Pacific occurred during the wet, non-upwelling season when ocean temperatures were warmer and predator communities were more functionally diverse. Our results highlight the importance of regional biotic and abiotic drivers that shape interaction strength and the maintenance of tropical communities, which are experiencing rapid environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]