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URL del artículo en la web de la Revista: https://www.upo.es/revistas/index.php/RevMetCuant/article/view/2375, Se estudian econométricamente los mercados cambiarios y los tipos de cambio de Asia y Latinoamérica. Se utilizan análisis de cambio estructural endógeno y de cointegración y funciones de impulso-respuesta. Los hallazgos indican que: 1) la sincronización de largo plazo de los mercados cambiarios es baja; 2) no hay evidencia de sincronización en los mercados asiáticos; 3) un choque estocástico en un país latinoamericano tiene efectos de mayor magnitud y duración que un choque similar en un país asiático; y 4) no hay evidencia de que la Crisis Financiera Global haya inducido cambios estructurales en las dinámicas de los tipos de cambio. Se usan los tipos de cambio spot diarios de Argentina, Brasil, Chile, China, Colombia, Corea del Sur, India, Malasia, México y Tailandia, para el periodo del 5 de agosto de 2002 al 22 de enero de 2016., The exchange markets and the exchange rates of Asia and Latin America are studied econometrically. Endogenous structural change and cointegration analyzes and impulse-response functions are used. The findings indicate that: 1) the long-term timing of the exchange markets is low; 2) there is no evidence of synchronization in Asian markets; 3) a stochastic shock in a Latin American country has effects of greater magnitude and duration than a similar shock in an Asian country; and 4) there is no evidence that the Global Financial Crisis has induced structural changes in the dynamics of exchange rates. The daily spot exchange rates of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, South Korea, India, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand are used for the period from August 5, 2002 to January 22, 2016., Universidad Pablo de Olavide

RESUMEN En este artículo se evalúan las hipótesis de Fisher y de integración de los mercados latinoamericanos mediante pruebas de cointegración y de cambio estructural endógeno. Los hallazgos sugieren varias conclusiones: a) el efecto Fisher se valida principalmente en Costa Rica; b) el efecto internacional de Fisher se valida débilmente entre Chile y Costa Rica y entre Colombia y México; c) la integración de los países y mercados es heterogénea, y d) únicamente Chile no tuvo cambios estructurales. En el estudio se usan series mensuales de Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, México y Perú durante el periodo comprendido entre enero de 1997 y diciembre de 2014. JEL: G15, F36, C32, C22. ABSTRACT This article evaluates the Fisher hypothesis and the hypothesis of the integration of Latin American markets through co-integration and endogenous structural change tests. The findings suggest a number of conclusions: a) the Fisher effect is validated mainly in Costa Rica; b) the international Fisher effect is validated weakly between Chile and Costa Rica and between Colombia and Mexico; c) the integration of counties and markets is heterogeneous, and d) only Chile did not present structural changes. The study uses monthly series for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico and Peru during the January 1997 to December 2014 period. RESUMO Neste artigo, avaliam-se as hipóteses de Fisher e de integração dos mercados latino-americanos mediante testes de cointegração e de mudança estrutural endógena. Os achados sugerem várias conclusões: a) o efeito Fisher é validado principalmente na Costa Rica; b) o efeito internacional de Fisher é validado debilmente entre o Chile e a Costa Rica, e entre a Colômbia e o México; c) a integração dos países e mercados é heterogênea; d) unicamente o Chile não teve mudanças estruturais. Além disso, usam-se séries mensais do Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, Costa Rica, México e do Peru durante o período compreendido entre janeiro de 1997 e dezembro de 2014.

We propose an ARCH model of the TGARCH type with an asymmetric Student's t distribution. It is built using the methodology of Fernandez and Steel (1998) and the traditional TGARCH model developed by Zakoian (1994). The model is used to describe series of stock market returns and to assess the validity of the rationality hypotheses in Latin America. The results suggest that: 1) The series can be described adequately with the proposed model; (2) the Samuelson´s rationality hypothesis is consistent with the evidence of the markets of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico; 3) the traditional rationality hypothesis is consistent with the evidence of Peru; and (4) the volatility estimated with the proposed model are higher than those estimated with the traditional TGARCH model over the period 2008-2009.

This study examines the debts of the municipalities of the Mexican state of Jalisco from an institutional and economic perspective. We find that fiscal institutions and institutional processes are often incomplete and inadequate. We also find that: 1) The municipalities that borrow the most are the most developed ones; 2) most municipalities borrow debt from development banks; 3) the most developed municipalities borrow from commercial banks; and 4) underdeveloped municipalities borrow debt rapidly in spite of having little access to commercial banks. The study uses annual panel-data of the 125 municipalities of Jalisco for the period 2005-2012.

We develop a GARCH model with autoregressive conditional asymmetry to describe time-series. This means that, in addition to the conditional mean and variance, we assume that the skewness describes the behavior of the time-series. Analytically, we use the methodology proposed by Fernández and Steel (1998) to define the behavior of the innovations of the model. We use the approach developed by Brooks, et. al., (2005), to build it. Moreover, we show its usefulness by modeling the daily returns of the Mexican Stock Market Index (IPC) during the period between January 3rd, 2008 and September 29th, 2009.

We show an introduction to the econometric research that uses panel-data. In the first part, we describe the development of panel-data models from the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first one. In the second part, we describe the models with fixed, random and dynamic effects. In the subsequent parts we describe some trends in the econometric research referred to Mexico. Specifically, we show the trends that characterize published studies; and some trends in the use of the models in certain areas of knowledge (social sciences, economics, international economics, finance, public finance). We assess the trends with the articles in the REDALYC database referred to the period 2000-2011.

We develop a microeconomic model to explain why sanction policies used by developed countries have had ambiguous effects to reduce drug trafficking in developing countries. In the model, a country receives FDI depending on its government effort to reduce drug exports. However, local drug producers lobby and offer contributions whose impact depends on the level of government corruption. The government sets the level of enforcement against drug trafficking taking into account the contributions paid and the welfare of the local habitants. Analytically, we use the common agency theory to justify and explain diverse sanction policy outcomes. We also show evidence about the relationships among drug trafficking, corruption and FDI for some Latin-American countries.

We develop a comparative study using the TARCH and EGARCH non-linear econometric models. We use them to describe Mexican stock market returns. We model daily series of returns for 30 stocks and the Stock Market Index (IPC) for the period between December 7, 2005 and August 1, 2011. Most of the series show leverage effects. The results also suggest that the AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1) model describes properly the aggregated returns of the stock market (measured by the IPC). They also show that the AR(1)-TGARCH(1,1) and AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1) models fit 19 and 11 stock return series, respectively. Finally, the results show that the return mean (variance) has decreased (increased) since August 2007.

We develop an investigation regarding the determinants of the stock prices listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV). We use the valuation Ohlson model and an extension of it. The Ohlson-Beta model includes the Beta elasticity as an additional explanatory variable. We use time-series and panel-data cointegration methodologies to assess the existence of meaningful long-run relationships among the variables postulated by both models. The main results suggest that the use of panel-data techniques may be more adequate than time-series ones. They also show that both Ohlson models are useful to describe stock prices. The traditional Ohlson variables are significant and have the postulated signs. The Beta variable is also significant. These results hold when the firms are considered as a whole and for the firms with long cycles. Thus the results may support the hypothesis that the information content of accounting and financial variables depends on the length of the cycles.

We develop an investigation regarding the determinants of the stock prices in six Latin American emerging markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). We test the traditional Ohlson model and an international version of it. The international model includes the Dow Jones index as an additional explanatory variable. We use time-series and panel-data cointegration methodologies to assess the long-run relationships among the variables postulated by both models. We use quarterly data for the period 2000:01-2010:03. The results suggest that panel-data techniques may be better than time-series ones for the assessments. They support the use of the Ohlson models and, specially, the international one. The variables are significant and have the postulated signs. These results hold when the firms are considered as a whole and for the commercial and construction firms. Furthermore, the results also suggest that the Latin American asset prices are complementary to the US ones in the long run.

We study how competition and corporate governance may explain investment decisions of Mexican manufacturing firms. We develop the study with indexes of market concentration and agency costs and OLS regressions. The analysis uses longitudinal census data. Our results suggest that investment is better explained by the Dominance Index, a Mexican measure of concentration, than by the Herfindahl-Hirschman one. They also suggest that agency costs (proxy for the degree of separation of ownership and control), and market competition may encourage investment decisions. Furthermore they suggest an inverse relationship between market competition and agency costs. We believe that our findings support the hypothesis that competition may be an alternative mechanism to encourage corporate practices in emerging economies.

In this study we develop a three-factor model of the term structure of interest rates that includes a market sensitivity parameter. In the model the future short-rate depends on the current short-rate, the short-term mean of the short rate and the current volatility of the short-rate. The parameter measures the impact of the volatility on the short rate. The model is used to estimate the dynamics of the Mexican short rate. The methodology to estimate the term structure uses three-stage least squares (3SLS) and full-information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimations and Monte Carlo simulations. The results suggest that the model fits better than the CIR one to describe and predict the Mexican government funding rate.

In this essay we analyze the global financial crisis of the period 2007-2010. Particularly, we assess its origins, features and the responses given to deal with it from a theoretical and historical perspective. We conclude that the global crisis may not have a short-term solution due to the lack of synchronization of the business cycles among developed and underdeveloped economies. We also include a chronology of events.

The pricing of commodity derivatives requires that the underlying asset be modelled with mean reversion and high volatility. We develop closed formulas to price the spot of the commodity, its future, and to price a call option on the spot and on the commodity future, in the real world and under risk neutrality, by using a 1 factor model.

We analyze the effects of leadership in banking when oligopolistic competition exists in the market of deposits. We assess such effects by comparing the performance of banking systems that only differ on their strategic interactions. Specifically, we compare the outcomes associated to strategies of the Cournot and Stackelberg types (symmetric competition and leader-follower strategies). Our main findings suggest that there are private and social benefits associated to leadership. The results suggest that it induces high levels of deposits, of returns and of consumption for long-term depositors. Moreover, leadership enhances financial stability and efficiency in banking.

We study the empirical relationships among corporate governance, strategic diversification and financial performance in Mexico. The study uses data from 99 non-financial firms listed in the BMV (Mexican Stock Market) during 2004. The main relationships found are: Firms which property is concentrated use to focus on the domestic market. Family businesses diversify their productive activities and their sources of income. There are no trends, regarding strategies and performance, related to the separation between ownership and control. When independent committees exist in the board of directors, firms diversify on a mean-narrow-spectrum sense.

We propose a model to estimate the price volatility in of the Mexican Export Crude Oil Blend. The analysis relies on the conditional standard deviations obtained from a GARCH model. Data includes diary oil prices between January 2nd, 1998 and February 14th, 2007. The chosen model is of the GARCH (1,1) type. Asymmetric volatility effects are not detected. Furthermore, the results are compared with an estimate of the historic volatility based on previous returns. Such comparison confirms the convergence of the estimated GARCH conditional variance to its own non conditional one.