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BackgroundMeasurement error in exposures and confounders can bias exposure–outcome associations but is rarely considered. We aimed to assess random measurement error of all continuous variables in UK Biobank and explore approaches to mitigate its impact on exposure–outcome associations.MethodsRandom measurement error was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for all continuous variables with repeat measures. Regression calibration was used to correct for random error in exposures and confounders, using the associations of red blood cell distribution width (RDW), C-reactive protein (CRP) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] with mortality as illustrative examples.ResultsThe 2858 continuous variables with repeat measures varied in sample size from 109 to 49 121. They fell into three groups: (i) baseline visit [529 variables; median (interquartile range) ICC = 0.64 (0.57, 0.83)]; (ii) online diet by 24-h recall [22 variables; 0.35 (0.30, 0.40)] and (iii) imaging measures [2307 variables; 0.85 (0.73, 0.94)]. Highest ICCs were for anthropometric and medical history measures, and lowest for dietary and heart magnetic resonance imaging.The ICCs (95% confidence interval) for RDW, CRP and 25(OH)D were 0.52 (0.51, 0.53), 0.29 (0.27, 0.30) and 0.55 (0.54, 0.56), respectively. Higher RDW and levels of CRP were associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality, and higher concentration of 25(OH)D with lower risk. After correction for random measurement error in the main exposure, the associations all strengthened. Confounder correction did not influence estimates.ConclusionsRandom measurement error varies widely and is often non-negligible. For UK Biobank we provide relevant statistics and adaptable code to help other researchers explore and correct for this.

Asthma, hay fever and eczema are three common chronic conditions. There are no recent multi-country data on the burden of these three conditions in adults; the aims of this study are to fill this evidence gap.The Global Asthma Network (GAN) Phase I is a multi-country cross-sectional population-based study using the same core methodology as the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) Phase III. It provides data on the burden of asthma, hay fever, and eczema not only in children and adolescents but also for the first time in their parents/guardians.Data were available from 193 912 adults (104 061 female; mean age 38 (sd 7.5)) in 43 centres in 17 countries. The overall prevalences (range) of symptoms of current wheeze, asthma ever, hay fever ever and eczema ever were 6.6% (0.9%-32.7%), 4.4%(0.9%-29.0%), 14.4%(2.8%-45.7%), and 9.9%(1.6%-29.5%), respectively. Centre prevalence varied considerably both between countries and within countries. There was a moderate correlation between hay fever ever and asthma ever, and between eczema ever and hay fever ever at the centre level. There were moderate to strong correlations between indicators of the burden of disease reported in adults and the two younger age groups.We found evidence for a substantial burden of asthma, hay fever ever and eczema ever in countries examined highlighting the major public health importance of these diseases. Prevention strategies and equitable access to effective and affordable treatments for these three conditions would help mitigate the avoidable morbidity they cause. [Abstract copyright: Copyright ©The authors 2022. For reproduction rights and permissions contact permissions@ersnet.org.]

BACKGROUND\ud The Global Asthma Network (GAN), by using the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) methodology, has updated trends in prevalence of symptoms of childhood allergic diseases, including non-infective rhinitis and conjunctivitis ("rhinoconjunctivitis") which is reported here.\ud \ud METHODS\ud Prevalence and severity of rhinoconjunctivitis were assessed by questionnaire among schoolchildren in GAN Phase I and ISAAC Phases I and III surveys 15-23 years apart. Absolute rates of change in prevalence were estimated for each centre and modelled by multi-level linear regression to compare trends by age group, time period and per-capita national income.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud 27 GAN centres in 14 countries surveyed 74,361 13-14-year-olds ("adolescents") and 45,434 6-7-year-olds ("children"), with average response proportions of 90% and 79% respectively. Many centres showed highly significant (p

BACKGROUND: Asthma is the most common chronic disease in children globally. The Global Asthma Network (GAN) Phase I study aimed to determine if the worldwide burden of asthma symptoms is changing. METHODS: This updated cross-sectional study used the same methods as the International study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) Phase III. Asthma symptoms were assessed from centres that completed GAN Phase I and ISAAC Phase I (1993-95), ISAAC Phase III (2001-03), or both. We included individuals from two age groups (children aged 6-7 years and adolescents aged 13-14 years) who self-completed written questionnaires at school. We estimated the 10-year rate of change in prevalence of current wheeze, severe asthma symptoms, ever having asthma, exercise wheeze, and night cough (defined by core questions in the questionnaire) for each centre, and we estimated trends across world regions and income levels using mixed-effects linear regression models with region and country income level as confounders. FINDINGS: Overall, 119 795 participants from 27 centres in 14 countries were included: 74 361 adolescents (response rate 90%) and 45 434 children (response rate 79%). About one in ten individuals of both age groups had wheeze in the preceding year, of whom almost half had severe symptoms. Most centres showed a change in prevalence of 2 SE or more between ISAAC Phase III to GAN Phase I. Over the 27-year period (1993-2020), adolescents showed a significant decrease in percentage point prevalence per decade in severe asthma symptoms (-0·37, 95% CI -0·69 to -0·04) and an increase in ever having asthma (1·25, 0·67 to 1·83) and night cough (4·25, 3·06 to 5·44), which was also found in children (3·21, 1·80 to 4·62). The prevalence of current wheeze decreased in low-income countries (-1·37, -2·47 to -0·27], in children and -1·67, -2·70 to -0·64, in adolescents) and increased in lower-middle-income countries (1·99, 0·33 to 3·66, in children and 1·69, 0·13 to 3·25, in adolescents), but it was stable in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Trends in prevalence and severity of asthma symptoms over the past three decades varied by age group, country income, region, and centre. The high worldwide burden of severe asthma symptoms would be mitigated by enabling access to effective therapies for asthma. FUNDING: International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Boehringer Ingelheim New Zealand, AstraZeneca Educational Grant, National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, European Research Council, and Instituto de Salud Carlos III.

Some previously described environmental associations for atopic eczema may be due to reverse causation. We explored the role of reverse causation by comparing individual- and school-level results for multiple atopic eczema risk factors. The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (i.e, ISAAC) Phase Three surveyed children in schools (the sampling unit) regarding atopic eczema symptoms and potential risk factors. We assessed the effect of these risk factors on atopic eczema symptoms using mixed-effect logistic regression models, first with individual-level exposure data and second with school-level exposure prevalence. Overall, 546,348 children from 53 countries were included. At ages 6–7 years, the strongest individual-level associations were with current paracetamol use (odds ratio [OR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37–1.54), which persisted at school-level (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.10–2.21), early-life antibiotics (OR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.34–1.48), and early-life paracetamol use (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.21–1.36), with the former persisting at the school level, whereas the latter was no longer observed (OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.00–1.82 and OR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.69–1.28, respectively). At ages 13–14 years, the strongest associations at the individual level were with current paracetamol use (OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.51–1.63) and open-fire cooking (OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.33–1.62); both were stronger at the school level (OR = 2.57, 95% CI = 1.84–3.59 and OR = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.52–3.73, respectively). Association with exposure to heavy traffic (OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.27–1.36) also persisted at the school level (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.07–1.82). Most individual- and school-level effects were consistent, tending to exclude reverse causation.

Some previously described environmental associations for atopic eczema may be due to reverse causation. We explored the role of reverse causation by comparing individual- and school-level results for multiple atopic eczema risk factors. The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (i.e, ISAAC) Phase Three surveyed children in schools (the sampling unit) regarding atopic eczema symptoms and potential risk factors. We assessed the effect of these risk factors on atopic eczema symptoms using mixed-effect logistic regression models, first with individual-level exposure data and second with school-level exposure prevalence. Overall, 546,348 children from 53 countries were included. At ages 6-7 years, the strongest individual-level associations were with current paracetamol use (odds ratio [OR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37-1.54), which persisted at school-level (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.10-2.21), early-life antibiotics (OR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.34-1.48), and early-life paracetamol use (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.21-1.36), with the former persisting at the school level, whereas the latter was no longer observed (OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.00-1.82 and OR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.69-1.28, respectively). At ages 13-14 years, the strongest associations at the individual level were with current paracetamol use (OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.51-1.63) and open-fire cooking (OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.33-1.62); both were stronger at the school level (OR = 2.57, 95% CI = 1.84-3.59 and OR = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.52-3.73, respectively). Association with exposure to heavy traffic (OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.27-1.36) also persisted at the school level (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.07-1.82). Most individual- and school-level effects were consistent, tending to exclude reverse causation.

Background: Phase Three of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) measured the global prevalence of symptoms of asthma in children. We undertook comprehensive analyses addressing risk factors for asthma symptoms in combination, at both the individual and the school level, to explore the potential role of reverse causation due to selective avoidance or confounding by indication. Objective: To explore the role of reverse causation in risk factors of asthma symptoms. Methods: We compared two sets of multilevel logistic regression analyses, using (a) individual level exposure data and (b) school level average exposure (ie prevalence), in two different age groups. In individual level analyses, reverse causation is a possible concern if individual level exposure statuses were changed as a result of asthma symptoms or diagnosis. School level analyses may suffer from ecologic confounding, but reverse causation is less of a concern because individual changes in exposure status as a result of asthma symptoms would only have a small effect on overall school exposure levels. Results: There were 131 924 children aged 6-7 years (2428 schools, 25 countries) with complete exposure, outcome and confounder data. The strongest associations in individual level analyses (fully adjusted) were for current paracetamol use (odds ratio = 2.06; 95% confidence interval 1.97-2.16), early life antibiotic use (1.65; 1.58-1.73) and open fire cooking (1.44; 1.26-1.65). In school level analyses, these risk factors again showed increased risks. There were 238 586 adolescents aged 13-14 years (2072 schools, 42 countries) with complete exposure, outcome and confounder data. The strongest associations in individual level analyses (fully adjusted) were for current paracetamol use (1.80; 1.75-1.86), cooking on an open fire (1.32; 1.22-1.43) and maternal tobacco use (1.23; 1.18-1.27). In school level analyses, these risk factors again showed increased risks. Conclusions & clinical relevance: These analyses strengthen the potentially causal interpretation of previously reported individual level findings, by providing evidence against reverse causation. Revisión por pares

Background: Phase Three of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) measured the global prevalence of symptoms of asthma in children. We undertook comprehensive analyses addressing risk factors for asthma symptoms in combination, at both the individual and the school level, to explore the potential role of reverse causation due to selective avoidance or confounding by indication. Objective: To explore the role of reverse causation in risk factors of asthma symptoms. Methods: We compared two sets of multilevel logistic regression analyses, using (a) individual level exposure data and (b) school level average exposure (ie prevalence), in two different age groups. In individual level analyses, reverse causation is a possible concern if individual level exposure statuses were changed as a result of asthma symptoms or diagnosis. School level analyses may suffer from ecologic confounding, but reverse causation is less of a concern because individual changes in exposure status as a result of asthma symptoms would only have a small effect on overall school exposure levels. Results: There were 131 924 children aged 6-7 years (2428 schools, 25 countries) with complete exposure, outcome and confounder data. The strongest associations in individual level analyses (fully adjusted) were for current paracetamol use (odds ratio = 2.06; 95% confidence interval 1.97-2.16), early life antibiotic use (1.65; 1.58-1.73) and open fire cooking (1.44; 1.26-1.65). In school level analyses, these risk factors again showed increased risks. There were 238 586 adolescents aged 13-14 years (2072 schools, 42 countries) with complete exposure, outcome and confounder data. The strongest associations in individual level analyses (fully adjusted) were for current paracetamol use (1.80; 1.75-1.86), cooking on an open fire (1.32; 1.22-1.43) and maternal tobacco use (1.23; 1.18-1.27). In school level analyses, these risk factors again showed increased risks. Conclusions & clinical relevance: These analyses strengthen the potentially causal interpretation of previously reported individual level findings, by providing evidence against reverse causation.

Some previously described environmental associations for atopic eczema may be due to reverse causation. We explored the role of reverse causation by comparing individual- and school-level results for multiple atopic eczema risk factors. The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (i.e, ISAAC) Phase Three surveyed children in schools (the sampling unit) regarding atopic eczema symptoms and potential risk factors. We assessed the effect of these risk factors on atopic eczema symptoms using mixed-effect logistic regression models, first with individual-level exposure data and second with school-level exposure prevalence. Overall, 546,348 children from 53 countries were included. At ages 6-7 years, the strongest individual-level associations were with current paracetamol use (odds ratio [OR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37-1.54), which persisted at school-level (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.10-2.21), early-life antibiotics (OR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.34-1.48), and early-life paracetamol use (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.21-1.36), with the former persisting at the school level, whereas the latter was no longer observed (OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.00-1.82 and OR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.69-1.28, respectively). At ages 13-14 years, the strongest associations at the individual level were with current paracetamol use (OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.51-1.63) and open-fire cooking (OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.33-1.62); both were stronger at the school level (OR = 2.57, 95% CI = 1.84-3.59 and OR = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.52-3.73, respectively). Association with exposure to heavy traffic (OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.27-1.36) also persisted at the school level (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.07-1.82). Most individual- and school-level effects were consistent, tending to exclude reverse causation.

BACKGROUND The Global Asthma Network (GAN), by using the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) methodology, has updated trends in prevalence of symptoms of childhood allergic diseases, including non-infective rhinitis and conjunctivitis ("rhinoconjunctivitis") which is reported here. METHODS Prevalence and severity of rhinoconjunctivitis were assessed by questionnaire among schoolchildren in GAN Phase I and ISAAC Phases I and III surveys 15-23 years apart. Absolute rates of change in prevalence were estimated for each centre and modelled by multi-level linear regression to compare trends by age group, time period and per-capita national income. RESULTS 27 GAN centres in 14 countries surveyed 74,361 13-14-year-olds ("adolescents") and 45,434 6-7-year-olds ("children"), with average response proportions of 90% and 79% respectively. Many centres showed highly significant (p