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Accurate simulations of snow emission in surface-sensitive microwave channels are needed to separate snow from atmospheric information essential for numerical weather prediction. Measurements from a field campaign in Trail Valley Creek, Inuvik, Canada, during March 2018 were used to evaluate the Snow Microwave Radiative Transfer (SMRT) model at 89 GHz and, for the first time, frequencies between 118 and 243 GHz. In situ data from 29 snow pits, including snow specific surface area, were used to calculate exponential correlation lengths to represent the snow microstructure and to initialize snowpacks for simulation with SMRT. Measured variability in snowpack properties was used to estimate uncertainty in the simulations. SMRT was coupled with the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator to account for the directionally dependent emission and attenuation of radiation by the atmosphere. This is a major developmental step needed for top-of-atmosphere simulations of microwave brightness temperature at atmosphere-sensitive frequencies with SMRT. Nadir-simulated brightness temperatures at 89, 118, 157, 183 and 243 GHz were compared with airborne measurements and with ground-based measurements at 89 GHz. Inclusion of anisotropic atmospheric radiance in SMRT had the greatest impact on brightness temperature simulations at 183 GHz and the least impact at 89 GHz. Medians of simulations compared well with medians of observations, with a root mean squared difference of 14 K across five frequencies and two flights (n=10). However, snow pit measurements did not capture the observed variability fully as simulations and airborne observations formed statistically different distributions. Topographical differences in simulated brightness temperature between sloped, valley and plateau areas diminished with increasing frequency as the penetration depth within the snow decreased and less emission from the underlying ground contributed to the airborne observations. Observed brightness temperature differences between flights were attributed to the deposition of a thin layer of very-low-density snow. This illustrates the need to account for both temporal and spatial variabilities in surface snow microstructure at these frequencies. Sensitivity to snow properties and the ability to reflect changes in observed brightness temperature across the frequency range for different landscapes, as demonstrated by SMRT, are necessary conditions for inclusion of atmospheric measurements at surface-sensitive frequencies in numerical weather prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of winter (snow-covered non-growing season) CO2 fluxes across the Arctic region vary by a factor of 3.5, with considerable variation between measured and simulated fluxes. Measurements of snow properties, soil temperatures, and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at Trail Valley Creek, NWT, Canada, allowed for the evaluation of simulated winter NEE in a tundra environment with the Community Land Model (CLM5.0). Default CLM5.0 parameterisations did not adequately simulate winter NEE in this tundra environment, with near-zero NEE (< 0.01 gCm-2d-1) simulated between November and mid-May. In contrast, measured NEE was broadly positive (indicating net CO2 release) from snow-cover onset until late April. Changes to the parameterisation of snow thermal conductivity, required to correct for a cold soil temperature bias, reduced the duration for which no NEE was simulated. Parameter sensitivity analysis revealed the critical role of the minimum soil moisture threshold of decomposition (Ψmin) in regulating winter soil respiration. The default value of this parameter (Ψmin) was too high, preventing simulation of soil respiration for the vast majority of the snow-covered season. In addition, the default rate of change of soil respiration with temperature (Q10) was too low, further contributing to poor model performance during winter. As Ψmin and Q10 had opposing effects on the magnitude of simulated winter soil respiration, larger negative values of Ψmin and larger positive values of Q10 are required to simulate wintertime NEE more adequately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic poses many challenges to Earth System and snow physics models, which are unable to simulate crucial Arctic snowpack processes, such as vapour gradients and rain-on-snow-induced ice layers. These limitations raise concerns about the current understanding of Arctic warming and its impact on biodiversity, livelihoods, permafrost and the global carbon budget. Recognizing that models are shaped by human choices, eighteen Arctic researchers were interviewed to delve into the decision-making process behind model construction. Although data availability, issues of scale, internal model consistency, and historical and numerical model legacies were cited as obstacles to developing an Arctic snowpack model, no opinion was unanimous. Divergences were not merely scientific disagreements about the Arctic snowpack, but reflected the broader research context. Inadequate and insufficient resources partly driven by short-term priorities dominating research landscapes, impeded progress. Nevertheless, modellers were found to be both adaptable to shifting strategic research priorities – an adaptability demonstrated by the fact that interdisciplinary collaborations were the key motivation for model development – and anchored in the past. This anchoring led to diverging opinions about whether existing models are "good enough" and whether investing time and effort to build a new model was a useful strategy when addressing pressing research challenges. Moving forward, we recommend that both stakeholders and modellers be involved in future snow model intercomparison projects in order to drive developments that address snow model limitations that currently impede progress in various disciplines. We also argue for more transparency about the contextual factors that shape research decisions. Otherwise, the reality of our scientific process will remain hidden, limiting the changes necessary to our research practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon cycle in Arctic–boreal regions (ABRs) is an important component of the planetary carbon balance, with growing concerns about the consequences of ABR warming for the global climate system. The greatest uncertainty in annual carbon dioxide (CO2) budgets exists during winter, primarily due to challenges with data availability and limited spatial coverage in measurements. The goal of this study was to determine the main environmental controls of winter CO2 fluxes in ABRs over a latitudinal gradient (45 ∘ to 69 ∘ N) featuring four different ecosystem types: closed-crown coniferous boreal forest, open-crown coniferous boreal forest, erect-shrub tundra, and prostrate-shrub tundra. CO2 fluxes calculated using a snowpack diffusion gradient method (n=560) ranged from 0 to 1.05 gCm2d-1. To assess the dominant environmental controls governing CO2 fluxes, a random forest machine learning approach was used. We identified soil temperature as the main control of winter CO2 fluxes with 68 % of relative model importance, except when soil liquid water occurred during 0 ∘C curtain conditions (i.e., Tsoil≈0 ∘C and liquid water coexist with ice in soil pores). Under zero-curtain conditions, liquid water content became the main control of CO2 fluxes with 87 % of relative model importance. We observed exponential regressions between CO2 fluxes and soil temperature in fully frozen soils (RMSE=0.024 gCm-2d-1 ; 70.3 % of mean FCO2) and soils around the freezing point (RMSE=0.286 gCm-2d-1 ; 112.4 % of mean FCO2). FCO2 increases more rapidly with Tsoil around the freezing point than at Tsoil<5 ∘C. In zero-curtain conditions, the strongest regression was found with soil liquid water content (RMSE=0.137 gCm-2d-1 ; 49.1 % of mean FCO2). This study shows the role of several variables in the spatio-temporal variability in CO2 fluxes in ABRs during winter and highlights that the complex vegetation–snow–soil interactions in northern environments must be considered when studying what drives the spatial variability in soil carbon emissions during winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improved modelling of snow emissivity is needed to improve the assimilation of surface-sensitive atmospheric sounding observations from satellites in polar regions for numerical weather prediction (NWP). This paper evaluates emissivity simulated with the Snow Microwave Radiative Transfer (SMRT) model using observations of Arctic tundra snow at frequencies between 89 and 243 GHz. Measurements of snow correlation length, density and layer thickness were used as input to SMRT, and an optimisation routine was used to assess the impact of each parameter on simulations of emissivity when compared to a set of Lambertian emissivity spectra, retrieved from observations of tundra snow from three flights of the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) aircraft. Probability distributions returned by the optimisation routine demonstrate parameter uncertainties and the sensitivity of simulations to the different snow parameters. Results showed that SMRT was capable of reproducing a range of observed emissivities between 89 and 243 GHz. Varying correlation length alone allowed SMRT to capture much of the variability in the emissivity spectra; however, MAE (MAPE) decreased from 0.018 (3.0 %) to 0.0078 (1.2 %) overall when the thickness of the snow layers was also varied. When all three parameters were varied, simulations were similarly sensitive to both correlation length and density, although the influence of density was most evident when comparing spectra from snowpacks with and without surface snow. Simulations were most sensitive to surface snow and wind slab parameters, while sensitivity to depth hoar depended on the thickness and scattering strength of the layers above, demonstrating the importance of representing all three parameters for multi-layer snowpacks when modelling emissivity spectra. This work demonstrates the ability of SMRT to simulate snow emissivity at these frequencies and is a key step in the progress towards modelling emissivity for data assimilation in NWP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of winter (snow-covered non-growing season) CO2 fluxes across the Arctic region vary by a factor of three and a half, with considerable variation between measured and simulated fluxes. Measurements of snow properties, soil temperatures and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at Trail Valley Creek, NWT, Canada, allowed evaluation of simulated winter NEE in a tundra environment with the Community Land Model (CLM5.0). Default CLM5.0 parameterisations did not adequately simulate winter NEE in this tundra environment, with near-zero NEE (< 0.01 g C m-2 d-1) simulated between November and mid-May. In contrast, measured NEE was broadly positive (indicating net CO2 release) from snow cover onset until late April. Changes to the parameterisation of snow thermal conductivity, required to correct for a cold soil temperature bias, reduced the duration for which no NEE was simulated. Parameter sensitivity analysis revealed the critical role of the minimum soil moisture threshold on decomposition (min) in regulating winter soil respiration. The default value of this parameter (min) was too high, preventing simulation of soil respiration for the vast majority of the snow-covered season. In addition, the default rate of change of soil respiration with temperature (Q10) was too low, further contributing to poor model performance during winter. As min and Q10 had opposing effects on the magnitude of simulated winter soil respiration, larger negative values of min and larger positive values of Q10 are required to simulate wintertime NEE more adequately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improved modelling of snow emissivity is needed to improve the assimilation of surface-sensitive atmospheric sounding observations from satellites in polar regions for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). This paper evaluates emissivity simulated with the Snow Microwave Radiative Transfer (SMRT) model using observations of Arctic tundra snow, at frequencies between 89 and 243 GHz. Measurements of snow correlation length, density and layer thickness were used as input to SMRT, and an optimization routine was used to assess the impact of each parameter on simulations of emissivity when compared to a set of Lambertian emissivity spectra, retrieved from observations of tundra snow from three flights of the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) aircraft. Probability distributions returned by the optimization routine demonstrate parameter uncertainties and the sensitivity of simulations to the different snow parameters. Results showed that SMRT was capable of reproducing a range of observed emissivities between 89 and 243 GHz. Varying correlation length alone allowed SMRT to capture much of the variability in the emissivity spectra, however, overall RMSE (and MAE) decreased from 0.029 (0.018) to 0.013 (0.0078) when the thickness of the snow layers was also varied. When all three parameters were varied simulations were similarly sensitive to both correlation length and density, although the influence of density was most evident when comparing spectra from snowpacks with and without surface snow. Simulations were most sensitive to surface snow and wind slab parameters, while sensitivity to depth hoar depended on the thickness and scattering strength of layers above, demonstrating the importance of representing all three parameters for multi-layer snowpacks when modelling emissivity spectra. This work demonstrates the ability of SMRT to simulate snow emissivity at these frequencies, and is a key step in progress towards modelling emissivity for data assimilation in NWP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate simulations of snow emission in surface-sensitive microwave channels are needed to separate snow from atmospheric information essential for numerical weather prediction. Measurements from a field campaign in Trail Valley Creek, Inuvik, Canada during March 2018 were used to evaluate the Snow Microwave Radiative Transfer (SMRT) Model at 89 GHz and, for the first time, frequencies between 118 and 243 GHz. In situ data from 29 snow pits, including snow specific surface area, were used to calculate exponential correlation lengths to represent the snow microstructure and to initialize snowpacks for simulation with SMRT. Measured variability in snowpack properties was used to estimate uncertainty in the simulations. SMRT was coupled with the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator to account for the directionally-dependent emission and attenuation of radiation by the atmosphere. This is a major developmental step needed for top-of-atmosphere simulations of microwave brightness temperature at atmosphere-sensitive frequencies with SMRT. Nadir simulated brightness temperatures at 89, 118, 157, 183 and 243 GHz were compared with airborne measurements and with ground-based measurements at 89 GHz. Inclusion of an anisotropic atmosphere in SMRT had the greatest impact on brightness temperature simulations at 183 GHz and the least at 89 GHz. Simulations compared well with observations, with a root mean squared error of 14 K, although snowpit measurements did not capture the observed variability fully as simulations and airborne observations formed statistically different distributions. Topographical differences in simulated brightness temperature between sloped, valley and plateau areas diminished with increasing frequency as the penetration depth within the snow decreased and less emission from the underlying ground contributed to the airborne observations. Observed brightness temperature differences between flights were attributed to the deposition of a thin layer of very low density snow. This illustrates the need to account for both temporal and spatial variability in surface snow microstructure at these frequencies. Sensitivity to snow properties and the ability to reflect changes in observed brightness temperature across the frequency range for different landscapes, as demonstrated by SMRT, is a necessary condition for inclusion of atmospheric measurements at surface-sensitive frequencies in numerical weather prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]