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Planets orbiting M-dwarf stars are prime targets in the search for rocky exoplanet atmospheres. The small size of M dwarfs renders their planets exceptional targets for transmission spectroscopy, facilitating atmospheric characterization. However, it remains unknown whether their host stars' highly variable extreme-UV radiation environments allow atmospheres to persist. With JWST, we have begun to determine whether or not the most favorable rocky worlds orbiting M dwarfs have detectable atmospheres. Here, we present a 2.8-5.2 micron JWST NIRSpec/G395H transmission spectrum of the warm (700 K, 40.3x Earth's insolation) super-Earth GJ 486b (1.3 R$_{\oplus}$ and 3.0 M$_{\oplus}$). The measured spectrum from our two transits of GJ 486b deviates from a flat line at 2.2 - 3.3 $\sigma$, based on three independent reductions. Through a combination of forward and retrieval models, we determine that GJ 486b either has a water-rich atmosphere (with the most stringent constraint on the retrieved water abundance of H2O > 10% to 2$\sigma$) or the transmission spectrum is contaminated by water present in cool unocculted starspots. We also find that the measured stellar spectrum is best fit by a stellar model with cool starspots and hot faculae. While both retrieval scenarios provide equal quality fits ($\chi^2_\nu$ = 1.0) to our NIRSpec/G395H observations, shorter wavelength observations can break this degeneracy and reveal if GJ 486b sustains a water-rich atmosphere., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, 5 tables. Accepted in ApJ Letters. Co-First Authors

Measuring the metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio in exoplanet atmospheres is a fundamental step towards constraining the dominant chemical processes at work and, if in equilibrium, revealing planet formation histories. Transmission spectroscopy provides the necessary means by constraining the abundances of oxygen- and carbon-bearing species; however, this requires broad wavelength coverage, moderate spectral resolution, and high precision that, together, are not achievable with previous observatories. Now that JWST has commenced science operations, we are able to observe exoplanets at previously uncharted wavelengths and spectral resolutions. Here we report time-series observations of the transiting exoplanet WASP-39b using JWST's Near InfraRed Camera (NIRCam). The long-wavelength spectroscopic and short-wavelength photometric light curves span 2.0 - 4.0 $\mu$m, exhibit minimal systematics, and reveal well-defined molecular absorption features in the planet's spectrum. Specifically, we detect gaseous H$_2$O in the atmosphere and place an upper limit on the abundance of CH$_4$. The otherwise prominent CO$_2$ feature at 2.8 $\mu$m is largely masked by H$_2$O. The best-fit chemical equilibrium models favour an atmospheric metallicity of 1-100$\times$ solar (i.e., an enrichment of elements heavier than helium relative to the Sun) and a sub-stellar carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio. The inferred high metallicity and low C/O ratio may indicate significant accretion of solid materials during planet formation or disequilibrium processes in the upper atmosphere., Comment: 35 pages, 13 figures, 3 tables, Nature, accepted

Exoplanet atmospheric retrieval is a computational technique widely used to infer properties of planetary atmospheres from remote spectroscopic observations. Retrieval codes typically employ Bayesian sampling algorithms or machine learning approaches to explore the range of atmospheric properties (e.g., chemical composition, temperature structure, aerosols) compatible with an observed spectrum. However, despite the wide adoption of exoplanet retrieval techniques, there is currently no systematic summary of exoplanet retrieval codes in the literature. Here, we provide a catalogue of the atmospheric retrieval codes published to date, alongside links to their respective code repositories where available. Our catalogue will be continuously updated via a Zenodo archive., Comment: 5 pages, 1 giant Table. Published in RNAAS. Live catalogue will be updated at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7675743

Study Analysis Group 21 (SAG21) of NASA's Exoplanet Exploration Program Analysis Group (ExoPAG) was organized to study the effect of stellar contamination on space-based transmission spectroscopy, a method for studying exoplanetary atmospheres by measuring the wavelength-dependent radius of a planet as it transits its star. Transmission spectroscopy relies on a precise understanding of the spectrum of the star being occulted. However, stars are not homogeneous, constant light sources but have temporally evolving photospheres and chromospheres with inhomogeneities like spots, faculae, plages, granules, and flares. This SAG brought together an interdisciplinary team of more than 100 scientists, with observers and theorists from the heliophysics, stellar astrophysics, planetary science, and exoplanetary atmosphere research communities, to study the current research needs that can be addressed in this context to make the most of transit studies from current NASA facilities like HST and JWST. The analysis produced 14 findings, which fall into three Science Themes encompassing (1) how the Sun is used as our best laboratory to calibrate our understanding of stellar heterogeneities ("The Sun as the Stellar Benchmark"), (2) how stars other than the Sun extend our knowledge of heterogeneities ("Surface Heterogeneities of Other Stars") and (3) how to incorporate information gathered for the Sun and other stars into transit studies ("Mapping Stellar Knowledge to Transit Studies"). In this invited review, we largely reproduce the final report of SAG21 as a contribution to the peer-reviewed literature., Invited review in press at RASTI. Based on the ExoPAG SAG21 report (arXiv:2201.09905v1) and refined via feedback from three reviewers. 75 pages, 30 figures, 5 tables

Transmission spectroscopy is one of the premier methods used to probe the temperature, composition, and cloud properties of exoplanet atmospheres. Recent studies have demonstrated that the multidimensional nature of exoplanet atmospheres -- due to non-uniformities across the day-night transition and between the morning and evening terminators -- can strongly influence transmission spectra. However, the computational demands of 3D radiative transfer techniques have precluded their usage within atmospheric retrievals. Here we introduce TRIDENT, a new 3D radiative transfer model which rapidly computes transmission spectra of exoplanet atmospheres with day-night, morning-evening, and vertical variations in temperature, chemical abundances, and cloud properties. We also derive a general equation for transmission spectra, accounting for 3D atmospheres, refraction, multiple scattering, ingress/egress, grazing transits, stellar heterogeneities, and nightside thermal emission. After introducing TRIDENT's linear algebra-based approach to 3D radiative transfer, we propose new parametric prescriptions for 3D temperature and abundance profiles and 3D clouds. We show that multidimensional transmission spectra exhibit two significant observational signatures: (i) day-night composition gradients alter the relative amplitudes of absorption features; and (ii) morning-evening composition gradients distort the peak-to-wing contrast of absorption features. Finally, we demonstrate that these signatures of multidimensional atmospheres incur residuals > 100 ppm compared to 1D models, rendering them potentially detectable with JWST. TRIDENT's rapid radiative transfer, coupled with parametric multidimensional atmospheres, unlocks the final barrier to 3D atmospheric retrievals., 41 pages, 15 figures. Added appendix with TRIDENT runtimes. Accepted for publication in ApJ

This manuscript, Part II of a climate change impacts assessment series, describes changes in CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions and soil carbon storage on a theoretical farm in the Keremeos Creek ...

The current study is Part I of a two-part assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and farm-level Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. The effects of climate change on spring and summer...

We present a new optical transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-79b. We observed three transits with the STIS instrument mounted on HST, spanning 0.3 - 1.0 um. Combining these transits with previous observations, we construct a complete 0.3 - 5.0 um transmission spectrum of WASP-79b. Both HST and ground-based observations show decreasing transit depths towards blue wavelengths, contrary to expectations from Rayleigh scattering or hazes. We infer atmospheric and stellar properties from the full near-UV to infrared transmission spectrum of WASP-79b using three independent retrieval codes, all of which yield consistent results. Our retrievals confirm previous detections of H$_{2}$O (at 4.0$\sigma$ confidence), while providing moderate evidence of H$^{-}$ bound-free opacity (3.3$\sigma$) and strong evidence of stellar contamination from unocculted faculae (4.7$\sigma$). The retrieved H$_{2}$O abundance ($\sim$ 1$\%$) suggests a super-stellar atmospheric metallicity, though stellar or sub-stellar abundances remain consistent with present observations (O/H = 0.3 - 34$\times$ stellar). All three retrieval codes obtain a precise H$^{-}$ abundance constraint: log(X$_{\rm{H^{-}}}$) $\approx$ -8.0 $\pm$ 0.7. The potential presence of H$^{-}$ suggests that JWST observations may be sensitive to ionic chemistry in the atmosphere of WASP-79b. The inferred faculae are $\sim$ 500 K hotter than the stellar photosphere, covering $\sim$ 15$\%$ of the stellar surface. Our analysis underscores the importance of observing UV - optical transmission spectra in order to disentangle the influence of unocculted stellar heterogeneities from planetary transmission spectra., Comment: 27 pages, 10 figures. Resubmitted to AJ after referee report

WD 1856+534 b is a Jupiter-sized, cool giant planet candidate transiting the white dwarf WD 1856+534. Here, we report an optical transmission spectrum of WD 1856+534 b obtained from ten transits using the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph. This system is challenging to observe due to the faintness of the host star and the short transit duration. Nevertheless, our phase-folded white light curve reached a precision of 0.12 %. WD 1856+534 b provides a unique transit configuration compared to other known exoplanets: the planet is $8\times$ larger than its star and occults over half of the stellar disc during mid-transit. Consequently, many standard modeling assumptions do not hold. We introduce the concept of a `limb darkening corrected, time-averaged transmission spectrum' and propose that this is more suitable than $(R_{\mathrm{p}, \lambda} / R_{\mathrm{s}})^2$ for comparisons to atmospheric models for planets with grazing transits. We also present a modified radiative transfer prescription. Though the transmission spectrum shows no prominent absorption features, it is sufficiently precise to constrain the mass of WD 1856+534 b to be > 0.84 M$_\mathrm{J}$ (to $2 \, \sigma$ confidence), assuming a clear atmosphere and a Jovian composition. High-altitude cloud decks can allow lower masses. WD 1856+534 b could have formed either as a result of common envelope evolution or migration under the Kozai-Lidov mechanism. Further studies of WD 1856+534 b, alongside new dedicated searches for substellar objects around white dwarfs, will shed further light on the mysteries of post-main sequence planetary systems., Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in AJ

The TRAPPIST-1 system is a priority target for terrestrial exoplanet characterization. TRAPPIST-1e, residing in the habitable zone, will be observed during the JWST GTO Program. Here, we assess the prospects of differentiating between prebiotic and modern Earth scenarios for TRAPPIST-1e via transmission spectroscopy. Using updated TRAPPIST-1 stellar models from the Mega-MUSCLES survey, we compute self-consistent model atmospheres for a 1 bar prebiotic Earth scenario and two modern Earth scenarios (1 and 0.5 bar eroded atmosphere). Our modern and prebiotic high-resolution transmission spectra (0.4 - 20 $\mu$m at $R \sim$ 100,000) are made available online. We conduct a Bayesian atmospheric retrieval analysis to ascertain the molecular detectability, abundance measurements, and temperature constraints achievable for both scenarios with JWST. We demonstrate that JWST can differentiate between our prebiotic and modern Earth scenarios within 20 NIRSpec Prism transits via CH$_4$ abundance measurements. However, JWST will struggle to detect O$_3$ for our modern Earth scenario to $> 2\,\sigma$ confidence within the nominal mission lifetime ($\sim$ 80 transits over 5 years). The agnostic combination of N$_2$O and/or O$_3$ offers better prospects, with a predicted detection significance of $2.7\,\sigma$ with 100 Prism transits. We show that combining MIRI LRS transits with Prism data provides little improvement to atmospheric constraints compared to observing additional Prism transits. Though biosignatures will be challenging to detect for TRAPPIST-1e with JWST, the abundances for several important molecules - CO$_2$, CH$_4$, and H$_2$O - can be measured to a precision of $\lesssim$ 0.7 dex (a factor of 5) within a 20 Prism transit JWST program., Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in MNRAS

High-resolution precision spectroscopy provides a multitude of robust techniques for probing exoplanetary atmospheres. We present multiple VLT/ESPRESSO transit observations of the hot-Jupiter exoplanet WASP-19b with previously published but disputed atmospheric features from lowresolution studies. Through spectral synthesis and modelling of the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect we calculate stellar, orbital and physical parameters for the system. From narrow-band spectroscopy we do not detect any of HI, FeI, MgI, CaI, NaI, and KI neutral species, placing upper limits on their line contrasts. Through cross-correlation analyses with atmospheric models, we do not detect Fe I and place a 3σ upper limit of log (XFe/X⊙) ≈ -1.83 ± 0.11 on its mass fraction, from injection and retrieval. We show the inability to detect the presence of H2O for known abundances, owing to lack of strong absorption bands, as well as relatively low S/N ratio. We detect a barely significant peak (3.02±0.15 σ) in the cross-correlation map for TiO, consistent with the sub-solar abundance previously reported. This is merely a hint for the presence of TiO and does not constitute a confirmation. However, we do confirm the presence of previously observed enhanced scattering towards blue wavelengths, through chromatic RM measurements, pointing to a hazy atmosphere. We finally present a reanalysis of low-resolution transmission spectra of this exoplanet, concluding that unocculted starspots alone cannot explain previously detected features. Our reanalysis of the FORS2 spectra of WASP-19b finds a ~100× sub-solar TiO abundance, precisely constrained to log XTiO ≈ -7.52 ± 0.38, consistent with the TiO hint from ESPRESSO. We present plausible paths to reconciliation with other seemingly contradicting results. © 2021 The Author(s)., We acknowledge the use of the following PYTHON packages in addition to those explicitly mentioned in the text: NUMPY (Harris et al. 2020), MATPLOTLIB (Hunter 2007), SCIPY (Virtanen et al. 2020), PANDAS (McKinney et al. 2010), EMCEE (Foreman-Mackey et al. 2013), SCIKIT-LEARN (Pedregosa et al. 2011), NUMBA (Lam, Pitrou & Seibert 2015), CORNER (Foreman-Mackey 2016), and ASTROPY (Price-Whelan et al. 2018). This work has made use of the VALD database, operated at Uppsala University, the Institute of Astronomy RAS in Moscow, and the University of Vienna. ES acknowledges support from ESO through its fellowship program. RB acknowledges support from FONDECYT Project 11200751, and CORFO project No. 14ENI2-26865. RB acknowledges support from ANID – Millennium Science Initiative – ICN12_009., With funding from the Spanish government through the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation SEV-2017-0709.

Exoplanets with cloud-free, haze-free atmospheres at the pressures probed by transmission spectroscopy represent a valuable opportunity for detailed atmospheric characterization and precise chemical abundance constraints. We present the first optical to infrared (0.3-5 microns) transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-62b, measured with Hubble/STIS and Spitzer/IRAC. The spectrum is characterized by a 5.1-sigma detection of Na I absorption at 0.59 microns, in which the pressure-broadened wings of the Na D-lines are observed from space for the first time. A spectral feature at 0.4 microns is tentatively attributed to SiH at 2.1-sigma confidence. Our retrieval analyses are consistent with a cloud-free atmosphere without significant contamination from stellar heterogeneities. We simulate James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations, for a combination of instrument modes, to assess the atmospheric characterization potential of WASP-62b. We demonstrate that JWST can conclusively detect Na, H2O, FeH, and SiH within the scope of its Early Release Science (ERS) program. As the only transiting giant planet currently known in the JWST Continuous Viewing Zone, WASP-62b could prove a benchmark giant exoplanet for detailed atmospheric characterization in the James Webb era., 14 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in ApJL

For solar-system objects, ultraviolet spectroscopy has been critical in identifying sources for stratospheric heating and measuring the abundances of a variety of hydrocarbon and sulfur-bearing species, produced via photochemical mechanisms, as well as oxygen and ozone. To date, less than 20 exoplanets have been probed in this critical wavelength range (0.2-0.4 um). Here we use data from Hubble's newly implemented WFC3 UVIS G280 grism to probe the atmosphere of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-41b in the ultraviolet through optical in combination with observations at infrared wavelengths. We analyze and interpret HAT-P-41b's 0.2-5.0 um transmission spectrum using a broad range of methodologies including multiple treatments of data systematics as well as comparisons with atmospheric forward, cloud microphysical, and multiple atmospheric retrieval models. Although some analysis and interpretation methods favor the presence of clouds or potentially a combination of Na, VO, AlO, and CrH to explain the ultraviolet through optical portions of HAT-P-41b's transmission spectrum, we find that the presence of a significant H- opacity provides the most robust explanation. We obtain a constraint for the abundance of H-, log(H-) = -8.65 +/- 0.62 in HAT-P-41b's atmosphere, which is several orders of magnitude larger than predictions from equilibrium chemistry for a 1700 - 1950 K hot Jupiter. We show that a combination of photochemical and collisional processes on hot hydrogen-dominated exoplanets can readily supply the necessary amount of H- and suggest that such processes are at work in HAT-P-41b and many other hot Jupiter atmospheres., Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures. Published in ApJL (October 8th 2020)

The atmospheres of ultra-hot Jupiters are commonly considered to be at thermochemical equilibrium. We aim to provide disequilibrium chemistry maps for a global understanding of the chemistry in HAT-P-7b's atmosphere and assess the importance of disequilibrium chemistry on UHJs. We apply a hierarchical modelling approach utilising 97 1D atmospheric profiles from 3D GCM of HAT-P-7b. For each 1D profile, we evaluate our kinetic cloud formation model consistently with the local gas-phase composition in chemical equilibrium. We then evaluate quenching results from a zeroth-order approximation in comparison to a kinetic gas-phase approach. We find that the zeroth-order approach of estimating quenching points agrees well with the full gas-kinetic modeling results. Chemical disequilibrium has the greatest effect on the nightside and morning abundance of species such as H, H$_2$O, CH$_4$, CO$_2$, HCN, and all C$_n$H$_m$ molecules; heavier C$_n$H$_m$ molecules are more affected by disequilibrium processes. CO abundance, however, is affected only marginally. While dayside abundances also notably change, those around the evening terminator of HAT-P-7b are the least affected by disequilibrium processes. The latter finding may partially explain the consistency of observed transmission spectra of UHJs with atmospheres in thermochemical equilibrium. Photochemistry only negligibly affects molecular abundances and quenching levels. In general, the quenching points of HAT-P-7b's atmosphere are at much lower pressures in comparison to the cooler hot-jupiters. We propose several avenues to look for the effect of disequilibrium processes on UHJs that are, in general, based on abundance and opacity measurements at different local times. It remains a challenge to completely disentangle this from the chemical effects of clouds and that of a primordial non-solar abundance., Comment: 26 page, 20 figures, accepted in A&A

The near-term search for life beyond the solar system currently focuses on transiting planets orbiting small M dwarfs, and the challenges of detecting signs of life in their atmospheres. However, planets orbiting white dwarfs (WDs) would provide a unique opportunity to characterize rocky worlds. The discovery of the first transiting giant planet orbiting a white dwarf, WD 1856+534b, showed that planetary-mass objects can survive close-in orbits around WDs. The large radius ratio between WD planets and their host renders them exceptional targets for transmission spectroscopy. Here, we explore the molecular detectability and atmospheric characterization potential for a notional Earth-like planet, evolving in the habitable zone of WD 1856+534, with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). We establish that the atmospheric composition of such Earth-like planets orbiting WDs can be precisely retrieved with JWST. We demonstrate that robust > 5$\sigma$ detections of H$_2$O and CO$_2$ can be achieved in a 5 transit reconnaissance program, while the biosignatures O$_3$ + CH$_4$, and O$_3$ + N$_2$O can be detected to > 4$\sigma$ in as few as 25 transits. N$_2$ and O$_2$ can be detected to > 5$\sigma$ within 100 transits. Given the short transit duration of WD habitable zone planets (~ 2 minutes for WD 1856+534), conclusive molecular detections can be achieved in a small or medium JWST transmission spectroscopy program. Rocky planets in the WD habitable zone therefore represent a promising opportunity to characterize terrestrial planet atmospheres and explore the possibility of a second genesis on these worlds., Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures. Published in ApJL

Juno spacecraft's spectrometer JIRAM recently observed the moon Europa in the 2-5 {\mu}m wavelength region. Here we present analysis of the average spectrum of a set of observations near 20{\deg}N and 40{\deg}W, focusing on the two forms of water-ice - amorphous and crystalline. We also take this as an opportunity to present a novel Bayesian spectral inversion framework for reflectance spectroscopy. We first validate this framework using simulated spectra of amorphous and crystalline ice mixtures and a laboratory spectrum of crystalline ice. We next analyze the JIRAM data and, through Bayesian model comparisons, find that a two-component intimately mixed model (TC-IM model) of amorphous and crystalline ice is strongly preferred (at 26{\sigma} confidence) over a two-component model of the same species but where their spectra are areally/linearly mixed. We also find that the TC-IM model is strongly preferred (at > 30{\sigma} confidence) over single-component models with only amorphous or crystalline ice, indicating the presence of both these phases of water ice in the data. For the highest SNR estimates of the JIRAM data, the TC-IM model solution corresponds to a mixture with a very large number density fraction (99.952 +/- 0.001 \%) of small (23.12 +/- 1.01 microns) amorphous ice grains, and a very small fraction (0.048 +/- 0.001 \%) of large (565.34 +/- 1.01 microns) crystalline ice grains. The overabundance of small amorphous ice grains we find is consistent with previous studies. The maximum-likelihood spectrum of the TC-IM model, however, is in tension with the data in the regions around 2.5 and 3.6 {\mu}m, and indicates the presence of non-ice components not currently included in our model, primarily due to the limited availability of cryogenic optical constants., Comment: 34 pages, 18 figures. To appear in Icarus (In Press); added references in Introduction

The first weather forecasts from alien worlds are coming in - and it's wild out there, says astronomer Ryan MacDonald.

Accurate and precisess estimation of spatio-temporal variability of solar radiation is critical. Some commonly used models evaluate this variability using methods in which the data required for estimating atmospheric attenuation may not be easily accessible for some study areas. Here, a daily solar radiation estimation method which uses ambient air temperature, a Digital Elevation Model, time of year, and monthly radiation estimates from Solar Analyst model has been proposed. The objective was to use air temperature-based empirical models for atmospheric transmissivity and diffuse fractions to vary total monthly radiation estimation from Solar Analyst, and then calculate total daily radiation as a fraction of total monthly radiation by applying a daily transmissivity-based ratio, as air temperature data are readily available at most locations on the planet. Results revealed that daily solar radiation can be estimated very well, with Mean Absolute Bias Error of around 40–53 W m−2 or Mean Bias Error of ± 10%, under all sky conditions at seven sites in diverse climate regions, using significantly less input data. The presented method is an improvement over previously used methods with Mean Bias Error of under 10% but more input parameters. Furthermore, the hourly solar radiation values can be calculated using the presented method using the ratio between daily and hourly radiation, for example from literature values and estimated daily insolation. The result also showed that the method is more useful for those stations with substantially higher numbers of sunny days than cloudy or partly cloudy days because the uncertainty of the model decreased from cloudy to sunny sky conditions. The implemented Digital Elevation Models environment of this method makes it applicable in many studies that need spatial estimation of solar radiation, especially for solar energy generation projects.

Recent observations of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76b have revealed a diversity of atmospheric species. Here we present new high-resolution transit spectroscopy of WASP-76b with GRACES at the Gemini North Observatory, serving as a baseline for the Large and Long Program "Exploring the Diversity of Exoplanet Atmospheres at High Spectral Resolution" (Exoplanets with Gemini Spectroscopy, or ExoGemS for short). With a broad spectral range of $400 - 1050$ nm, these observations allow us to search for a suite of atomic species. We recover absorption features due to neutral sodium (Na I), and report a new detection of the ionized calcium (Ca II) triplet at ~ $850$ nm in the atmosphere of WASP-76b, complementing a previous detection of the Ca II H & K lines. The triplet has line depths of $0.295 \pm 0.034$% at ~ $849.2$ nm, $0.574 \pm 0.041$% at ~ $854.2$ nm, and $0.454 \pm 0.024$% at ~ $866.2$ nm, corresponding to effective radii close to (but within) the planet's Roche radius. These measured line depths are significantly larger than those predicted by model LTE and NLTE spectra obtained on the basis of a pressure-temperature profile computed assuming radiative equilibrium. The discrepancy suggests that the layers probed by our observations are either significantly hotter than predicted by radiative equilibrium and/or in a hydrodynamic state. Our results shed light on the exotic atmosphere of this ultra-hot world, and will inform future analyses from the ExoGemS survey., 19 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables. Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal Letters

The Galileo Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) collected spectra of Europa in the 0.7-5.2 $\mu$m wavelength region, which have been critical to improving our understanding of the surface composition of this moon. However, most of the work done to get constraints on abundances of species like water ice, hydrated sulfuric acid, hydrated salts and oxides have used proxy methods, such as absorption strength of spectral features or fitting a linear mixture of laboratory generated spectra. Such techniques neglect the effect of parameters degenerate with the abundances, such as the average grain-size of particles, or the porosity of the regolith. In this work we revisit three Galileo NIMS spectra, collected from observations of the trailing hemisphere of Europa, and use a Bayesian inference framework, with the Hapke reflectance model, to reassess Europa's surface composition. Our framework has several quantitative improvements relative to prior analyses: (1) simultaneous inclusion of amorphous and crystalline water ice, sulfuric-acid-octahydrate (SAO), CO$_2$, and SO$_2$; (2) physical parameters like regolith porosity and radiation-induced band-center shift; and (3) tools to quantify confidence in the presence of each species included in the model, constrain their parameters, and explore solution degeneracies. We find that SAO strongly dominates the composition in the spectra considered in this study, while both forms of water ice are detected at varying confidence levels. We find no evidence of either CO$_2$ or SO$_2$ in any of the spectra; we further show through a theoretical analysis that it is highly unlikely that these species are detectable in any 1-2.5 $\mu$m Galileo NIMS data., Comment: 30 pages, 12 figures. Published in the Planetary Science Journal

We present a new ground-based optical transmission spectrum of the ultrahot Jupiter WASP-103b ($T_{eq} = 2484$K). Our transmission spectrum is the result of combining five new transits from the ACCESS survey and two new transits from the LRG-BEASTS survey with a reanalysis of three archival Gemini/GMOS transits and one VLT/FORS2 transit. Our combined 11-transit transmission spectrum covers a wavelength range of 3900--9450A with a median uncertainty in the transit depth of 148 parts-per-million, which is less than one atmospheric scale height of the planet. In our retrieval analysis of WASP-103b's combined optical and infrared transmission spectrum, we find strong evidence for unocculted bright regions ($4.3\sigma$) and weak evidence for H$_2$O ($1.9\sigma$), HCN ($1.7\sigma$), and TiO ($2.1\sigma$), which could be responsible for WASP-103b's observed temperature inversion. Our optical transmission spectrum shows significant structure that is in excellent agreement with the extensively studied ultrahot Jupiter WASP-121b, for which the presence of VO has been inferred. For WASP-103b, we find that VO can only provide a reasonable fit to the data if its abundance is implausibly high and we do not account for stellar activity. Our results highlight the precision that can be achieved by ground-based observations and the impacts that stellar activity from F-type stars can have on the interpretation of exoplanet transmission spectra., Comment: 33 pages, 17 figures, 7 tables. Accepted for publication in AJ

Ultra-hot Jupiters have recently attracted interest from observers and theoreticians alike, as they provide observationally accessible test cases. We apply a hierarchical modelling approach as a virtual laboratory to study cloud formation and gas-phase chemistry. We utilise 97 vertical 1D profiles of a 3D GCM for HAT-P-7b to evaluate our kinetic cloud formation model consistently with the local equilibrium gas-phase composition. The day/night temperature difference on HAT-P-7b (~ 2500K) causes clouds to form on the nightside (dominated by H2/He) while the dayside (dominated by H/He) retains cloud-free equatorial regions. The cloud particles vary in composition and size throughout the vertical extension of the cloud, but also globally. TiO2[s]/Al2O3[s]/CaTiO3[s]-particles of cm-sized radii occur in the higher dayside-latitudes, resulting in a dayside dominated by gas-phase opacity. The opacity on the nightside, however, is dominated by 0.01 ... 0.1 mum particles made of a material mix dominated by silicates. The gas pressure at which the atmosphere becomes optically thick is ~1d-4 bar in cloudy regions, and ~0.1 bar in cloud-free regions. HAT-P-7b features strong morning/evening terminator asymmetries, providing an example of patchy clouds and azimuthally-inhomogeneous chemistry. The large temperature differences result in an increasing geometrical extension from the night- to the dayside. The chemcial equilibrium H2O abundance at the terminator changes by < 1 dex with altitude and < 0.3 dex (a factor of 2) across the terminator for a given pressure, indicating that H2O abundances derived from transmission spectra can be representative of the well-mixed metallicity at P > 10 bar. We suggest the atmospheric C/O as an important tool to trace the presence and location of clouds in exoplanet atmospheres. Phase curve variability of HAT-P-7b is unlikely to be caused by dayside clouds., 31 pages, accepted for publication in A&A

Transmission spectroscopy is enabling precise measurements of atmospheric H2O abundances for numerous giant exoplanets. For hot Jupiters, relating H2O abundances to metallicities provides a powerful probe of their formation conditions. However, metallicity measurements for Neptune-mass exoplanets are only now becoming viable. Exo-Neptunes are expected to possess super-solar metallicities from accretion of H2O-rich and solid-rich planetesimals. However, initial investigations into the exo-Neptune HAT-P-26b suggested a significantly lower metallicity than predicted by the core-accretion theory of planetary formation and solar system expectations from Uranus and Neptune. Here, we report an extensive atmospheric retrieval analysis of HAT-P-26b, combining all available observations, to reveal its composition, temperature structure, and cloud properties. Our analysis reveals an atmosphere containing 1.5(+2.1)(-0.9)% H2O, an O/H of 18.1(+25.9)(-11.3)x solar, and C/O < 0.33 (to 2$\sigma$). This updated metallicity, the most precise exo-Neptune metallicity reported to date, suggests a formation history with significant planetesimal accretion, albeit below that of Uranus and Neptune. We additionally report evidence for metal hydrides at 4.1$\sigma$ confidence. Potential candidates are identified as TiH (3.6$\sigma$), CrH (2.1$\sigma$), or ScH (1.8$\sigma$). Maintaining gas-phase metal hydrides at the derived temperature (~560 K) necessitates strong disequilibrium processes or external replenishment. Finally, we simulate the JWST Guaranteed Time Observations for HAT-P-26b. Assuming a composition consistent with current observations, we predict JWST can detect H2O (at 29$\sigma$), CH4 (6.2$\sigma$), CO2 (13$\sigma$), and CO (3.7$\sigma$), improving metallicity and C/O precision to 0.2 dex and 0.35 dex. Furthermore, NIRISS observations could detect several metal hydrides at >5$\sigma$ confidence., Comment: 25 pages, 17 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We present a new ground-based visible transmission spectrum of the high-gravity, hot Jupiter HAT-P-23b, obtained as part of the ACCESS project. We derive the spectrum from five transits observed between 2016 and 2018, with combined wavelength coverage between 5200 {\AA} - 9269 {\AA} in 200 {\AA} bins, and with a median precision of 247 ppm per bin. HAT-P-23b's relatively high surface gravity (g ~ 30 m/s^2), combined with updated stellar and planetary parameters from Gaia DR2, gives a 5-scale-height signal of 384 ppm for a hydrogen-dominated atmosphere. Bayesian models favor a clear atmosphere for the planet with the tentative presence of TiO, after simultaneously modeling stellar contamination, using spots parameter constraints from photometry. If confirmed, HAT-P-23b would be the first example of a high-gravity gas giant with a clear atmosphere observed in transmission at optical/NIR wavelengths; therefore, we recommend expanding observations to the UV and IR to confirm our results and further characterize this planet. This result demonstrates how combining transmission spectroscopy of exoplanet atmospheres with long-term photometric monitoring of the host stars can help disentangle the exoplanet and stellar activity signals., Comment: 28 pages, 18 Figures, accepted for publication in AJ. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1911.03358

The South Saskatchewan River Basin is one of Canada's most threatened watersheds, with water supplies in most subbasins over-allocated. In 2013, stakeholders representing irrigation districts, the environment, and municipalities collaborated with researchers and consultants to explore opportunities to improve the resiliency of the management of the Oldman and South Saskatchewan River subbasins. Streamflow scenarios for 2025-2054 were constructed by the novel approach of regressing historical river flows against indices of large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate oscillations to derive statistical streamflow models, which were then run using projected climate indices from global climate models. The impacts of some of the most extreme scenarios were simulated using the hydrologic mass-balance model Operational Analysis and Simulation of Integrated Systems (OASIS). Based on stakeholder observations, the project participants proposed and evaluated potential risk management and adaption strategies, e.g., modifying existing infrastructure, building new infrastructure, changing operations to supplement environmental flows, reducing demand, and sharing supply. The OASIS model was applied interactively at live modeling sessions with stakeholders to explore practical adaptation strategies. Our results, which serve as recommendations for policy makers, showed that forecast-based rationing together with new expanded storage could dramatically reduce water shortages.

Transmission spectroscopy is a powerful technique widely used to probe exoplanet terminators. Atmospheric retrievals of transmission spectra are enabling comparative studies of exoplanet atmospheres. However, the atmospheric properties inferred by retrieval techniques display a significant anomaly: most retrieved temperatures are far colder than expected. In some cases, retrieved temperatures are ~1000 K colder than T_eq. Here, we provide an explanation for this conundrum. We demonstrate that erroneously cold temperatures result when 1D atmospheric models are applied to spectra of planets with differing morning-evening terminator compositions. Despite providing an acceptable fit, 1D retrieval techniques artificially tune atmospheric parameters away from terminator-averaged properties. Retrieved temperature profiles are hundreds of degrees cooler and have weaker temperature gradients than reality. Retrieved abundances are mostly biased by > 1$\sigma$ and sometimes by > 3$\sigma$, with the most extreme biases for ultra-hot Jupiters. When morning-evening compositional differences manifest for prominent opacity sources, H$_2$O abundances retrieved by 1D models can be biased by over an order of magnitude. Finally, we demonstrate that these biases provide an explanation for the cold retrieved temperatures reported for WASP-17b and WASP-12b. To overcome biases associated with 1D atmospheric models, there is an urgent need to develop multidimensional retrieval techniques., Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJL

Inferences of molecular compositions of exoplanetary atmospheres have generally focused on C, H, and O-bearing molecules. Recently, additional absorption in HST WFC3 transmission spectra around 1.55$\mu$m has been attributed to nitrogen-bearing chemical species: NH$_3$ or HCN. These species, if present in significant abundance, would be strong indicators of disequilibrium chemical processes -- e.g. vertical mixing and photochemistry. The derived N abundance, in turn, could also place important constraints on planetary formation mechanisms. Here, we examine the detectability of nitrogen chemistry in exoplanetary atmospheres. In addition to the WFC3 bandpass (1.1-1.7$\mu$m), we find that observations in K-band at $\sim$2.2$\mu$m, achievable with present ground-based telescopes, sample a strong NH$_3$ feature, whilst observations at $\sim$3.1$\mu$m and $\sim$4.0$\mu$m sample strong HCN features. In anticipation of such observations, we predict absorption feature amplitudes due to nitrogen chemistry in the 1-5$\mu$m spectral range possible for a typical hot Jupiter. Finally, we conduct atmospheric retrievals of 9 hot Jupiter transmission spectra in search of near-infrared absorption features suggestive of nitrogen chemistry. We report weak detections of NH$_3$ in WASP-31b (2.2$\sigma$), HCN in WASP-63b (2.3$\sigma$), and excess absorption that could be attributed to NH$_3$ in HD 209458b. High-precision observations from 1-5$\mu$m (e.g., with the James Webb Space Telescope), will enable definitive detections of nitrogen chemistry, in turn serving as powerful diagnostics of disequilibrium atmospheric chemistry and planetary formation processes., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJL

The H2O abundance of a planetary atmosphere is a powerful indicator of formation conditions. Inferring H2O in the solar system giant planets is challenging, due to condensation depleting the upper atmosphere of water vapour. Substantially warmer hot Jupiter exoplanets readily allow detections of H2O via transmission spectroscopy, but such signatures are often diminished by the presence of clouds made of other species. In contrast, highly scattering H2O clouds can brighten planets in reflected light, enhancing molecular signatures. Here, we present an extensive parameter space survey of the prominence of H2O absorption features in reflection spectra of cool (Teff~20m/s^2, fsed>~3, m~180K display prominent H2O features embedded in the Rayleigh slope from 0.4-0.73um. High fsed enhances H2O features around 0.94um, and enables them to be detected at lower temperatures. High m results in dampened H2O absorption features, due to H2O vapour condensing to form bright optically thick clouds that dominate the continuum. We verify these trends via self-consistent modelling of the low gravity exoplanet HD 192310c, revealing that its reflection spectrum is expected to be dominated by H2O absorption from 0.4-0.73um for m, Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ. Reflection spectra repository and animated figures: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1210305

Transmission spectroscopy of exoplanets has the potential to provide precise measurements of atmospheric chemical abundances, in particular of hot Jupiters whose large sizes and high temperatures make them conducive to such observations. To date, several transmission spectra of hot Jupiters have revealed low amplitude features of water vapour compared to expectations from cloud-free atmospheres of solar metallicity. The low spectral amplitudes in such atmospheres could either be due to the presence of aerosols that obscure part of the atmosphere or due to inherently low abundances of H$_2$O in the atmospheres. A recent survey of transmission spectra of ten hot Jupiters used empirical metrics to suggest atmospheres with a range of cloud/haze properties but with no evidence for H$_2$O depletion. Here, we conduct a detailed and homogeneous atmospheric retrieval analysis of the entire sample and report the H$_2$O abundances, cloud properties, terminator temperature profiles, and detection significances of the chemical species. Our present study finds that the majority of hot Jupiters have atmospheres consistent with sub-solar H$_2$O abundances at their day-night terminators. The best constrained abundances range from $\mathrm{log(H_2O)}$ of $-5.04^{+0.46}_{-0.30}$ to $-3.16^{+0.66}_{-0.69}$, which compared to expectations from solar-abundance equilibrium chemistry correspond to $0.018^{+0.035}_{-0.009}\times$ solar to $1.40^{+4.97}_{-1.11}\times$ solar. Besides H$_2$O we report statistical constraints on other chemical species and cloud/haze properties, including cloud/haze coverage fractions which range from $0.18^{+0.26}_{-0.12}$ to $0.76^{+0.13}_{-0.15}$. The retrieved H$_2$O abundances suggest sub-solar oxygen and/or super-solar C/O ratios, and can provide important constraints on the formation and migration pathways of hot giant exoplanets., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, MNRAS, in press

As an exoplanet transits its host star, some of the light from the star is absorbed by the atoms and molecules in the planet's atmosphere, causing the planet to seem bigger; plotting the planet's observed size as a function of the wavelength of the light produces a transmission spectrum. Measuring the tiny variations in the transmission spectrum, together with atmospheric modelling, then gives clues to the properties of the exoplanet's atmosphere. Chemical species composed of light elements$-$such as hydrogen, oxygen, carbon, sodium and potassium$-$have in this way been detected in the atmospheres of several hot giant exoplanets, but molecules composed of heavier elements have thus far proved elusive. Nonetheless, it has been predicted that metal oxides such as titanium oxide (TiO) and vanadium oxide occur in the observable regions of the very hottest exoplanetary atmospheres, causing thermal inversions on the dayside. Here we report the detection of TiO in the atmosphere of the hot-Jupiter planet WASP-19b. Our combined spectrum, with its wide spectral coverage, reveals the presence of TiO (to a confidence level of 7.7{\sigma}), a strongly scattering haze (7.4{\sigma}) and sodium (3.4{\sigma}), and confirms the presence of water (7.9{\sigma}) in the atmosphere., Comment: Main article: 9 pages, 3 figures. Methods: 21 pages, 7 extended data figures, 3 extended data tables. Published in Nature