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Service value is affected by providers, receivers, and/or its environment. To that, value creation model (Ueda et al. 2008) could provide us deep insights on an issue of how to synthesize value. In the meantime, traditional decision theory is not enough to address such a value issue. This is mainly because decision theory is constructed on a probability basis. It implies that the theory cannot deal with co-creating situations and is not intrinsically appropriate for analyzing service decision problems. On the other hand, Gilboa and Schmeidler (1995) proposed Case-based Decision Theory, which describes decision-making in a human’s inductive manner. In this paper, as a case of service decision problems, we discussed value creation model from the viewpoint of Case-based Decision Theory.

International audience; To what extent is the observed mispricing in experimental asset markets caused by strategic uncertainty and by confusion? We address this question by comparing subjects' initial price forecasts in two market environments: one with six human traders, and the other with one human and five computer traders. We find that both strategic uncertainty and confusion contribute equally to the median initial forecast deviation from the fundamental value. The effect of strategic uncertainty is greater for subjects with a perfect score in the Cognitive Reflection Test, and it is not significant for those with low scores.

In this paper we report the results of a repeated experiment in which a central bank buys bonds for cash in a quantitative easing (QE) operation in an otherwise standard asset market setting. The experiment is designed so that bonds have a constant fundamental value which is not affected by QE under rational expectations. By repeating the same experience three times, we investigate whether participants learn that prices should not rise above the fundamental price in the presence of QE (as found in (Penalver et al., 2017)). We find that some groups do learn this but most do not, instead becoming more convinced that QE boosts bond prices. These claims are based on significantly different behaviour of two treatment groups relative to a control group that doesn't have QE.

International audience; By how much does the presence of behavioral uncertainty in an experimental asset market reduce subjects' confidence in their price forecasts? An incentivized interval forecast elicitation method is employed to answer this question. Each market consists of six traders, and the value of dividends is known. Two treatments are considered: six human traders (6H), and one human interacting with five computer traders whose behavior is known (1H5C). We find that while the deviation of the initial price forecasts from fundamental value is smaller in the 1H5C treatment than in the 6H treatment, albeit not statistically significantly, the average confidence regarding the forecasts is not. We further analyze the relationships between subjects' confidence in their forecasts and their trading behavior, as well as their trading performance, in the 6H treatment. While subjects' high confidence in their short-term forecasts shows a negative correlation with their trading performance, high confidence in their long-term forecasts shows a positive correlation with trading performance.

We experimentally investigate the effect of a central bank buying bonds for cash in a quantitative easing (QE) operation. In our experiment, the bonds are perfect substitutes for cash and have a constant fundamental value which is not affected by QE in the rational expectations equilibrium. We find that QE raises bond prices above those in the benchmark treatment without QE. Subjects in the benchmark treatment learned to trade the bonds at their fundamental value but those in treatments with QE became more convinced after repeated exposure to the same treatment that QE boosts bond prices. This suggests the possibility of a behavioural channel for the observed effects of actual QE operations on bond yields.

We extend the Arrow–Fisher–Hanemann–Henry (AFHH) and Dixit–Pindyck (DP) option values to a game situation. By reinterpreting the AFHH option value as a change in the surplus from conservation because of the prospect of future information, we deal with a conceptual difficulty associated with the AFHH option value in the presence of strategic interactions. We then introduce the DP option value into a game situation. We show that the equivalence between the expected value of information and the DP option value in the standard model does not hold under strategic interactions.

This paper shows that it is possible to track the changes in the distribution of power within a couple by focusing on the changes in the pattern of private consumption when the consumption decisions are efficient and private consumption is separable from public consumption in individual preferences. We first show that the separability of private consumption from public consumption at the individual level carries over to the household level. Hence, changes in public consumption only matters through a change in the residual budget available for private consumption. When the consumption decisions within the household is efficient, private consumption decisions can be modeled as the solution of a problem consisting in maximizing a weighted sum of the private-consumption sub-utility functions of the spouses under the residual budget, the weights being unique and representing the distribution of power over the allocation of private consumption. The model presented in this paper can be used to analyze the changes in the household resource allocation due to, for example, childbirth.

We consider a revision process of personal beliefs with perceived experiences. A player revises his old beliefs on his environment into new ones with the currently stored perceived experiences. A salient point of our theory is to take the personal experiences into belief revision. Both the beliefs and perceived experiences are formulated in the same mathematical manner. In this setting, we consider three kinds of belief changes, e-expansion, e-contraction and e-revision. We prove the Levi identity by these changes considering the perceived experiences, i.e., the e-revision is expressed in terms of the e-expansion and e-contraction. Thus, the revision of a player's personal view is characterized under his experiences.

Exploiting unique panel data that include direct measurements of resource allocation within households, we investigated the impact of childbirth on intrahousehold allocation for married Japanese couples. Based on a collective model of the household, we developed reduced-form and structural-form estimation equations that allow us to focus on private goods to track the changes in intrahousehold resource allocation. We found one additional child is associated with a reduction in the wife's private expenditure share by at least two percentage points. This may be because she substitutes more say in decisions on the children for her own private expenditure share.

We consider a simple two-period model of irreversible investment under strategic interactions between two players. In this setup, we show that the quasi-option value may cause some conceptual difficulties. In case of asymmetric information, decentralized investment decisions fail to induce first-best allocations. Therefore a regulator may not be able to exercise the option to delay the decision to develop. We also show that information-induced inefficiency may arise in a game situation and that under certain assumptions inefficiency can be eliminated by sending asymmetric information to the players, even when the regulator faces informational constraints. Our model is potentially applicable to various global environmental problems.

application/pdf, This paper presents a model of learning about a game. Players initially have little knowledge about the game. Through playing the same game repeatedly, each player not only learns which action to choose but also constructs a personal view of the game. The model is studied using a hybrid payoff matrix of the prisoner’s dilemma and coordination games. Results of computer simulations show that (1) when all the players are slow at learning the game, they have only a partial understanding of the game, but might enjoy higher payoffs than in cases with full or no understanding of the game; (2) when one player is quick in learning the game, that player obtains a higher payoff than the others. However, all can receive lower payoffs than in the case in which all players are slow learners.

How does known diversity in cognitive ability among market participants influence market outcomes? We investigated this question by first measuring subjects' cognitive ability and categorizing them as `H' type for those above median ability and `L' type for those below median ability. We then constructed three kinds of markets with six traders each: 6H, 6L, and 3H3L. Subjects were informed of their own cognitive type and that of the others in their market. We found heterogeneous markets (3H3L) generated significantly larger mispricing than homogeneous markets (6H or 6L). Thus, known diversity in cognitive ability among market participants impacts mispricing.

Inductive game theory (IGT) aims to explore sources of beliefs of a person in his individual experiences from behaving in a social situation. It has various steps, each of which already involves a lot of different aspects. A scenario for IGT was spelled out in Kaneko-Kline [15]. So far, IGT has been studied chiefly in theoretical manners, while some other papers targeted applications and conducted an experimental study. In this chapter, we undertake a simulation study of a player’s learning about some details of a social situation. First, we give a brief overview of IGT, and its differences from the extant game theories. Then, we explain several points pertinent to our simulation model.

We investigate the extent to which price deviations from fundamental values in an experimental asset market are due to the uncertainty of subjects regarding others' rationality. We do so by comparing the price forecasts submitted by subjects in two market environments: (a) all six traders are human subjects (6H), and (b) one human subject interacts with five profit-maximizing computer traders who assume all the traders are also maximizing profit (1H5C). The subjects are told explicitly about the behavioral assumption of the computer traders (in both 6H and 1H5C) as well as which environment they are in. Results from our experiments show that there is no significant difference between the distributions of the initial deviations of the forecast prices from the fundamental values in the two markets. However, as subjects learn by observing the realized prices, the magnitude of deviations becomes significantly smaller in 1H5C than in 6H markets. We also conduct additional experiments where subjects who have experienced the 1H5C market interact with five inexperienced subjects. The price forecasts initially submitted by the experienced subjects follow the fundamental value despite the fact that the subjects are explicitly told that the five other traders in the market are inexperienced subjects. These findings do not support the hypothesis that uncertainty about others' rationality plays a major role in causing substantial deviation of forecast prices from the fundamental values in these asset market experiments.

Inductive game theory captures how a player inductively derives his/her personal views from experiences. The player may have multiple views, some of which differ from the objective situation, but may revise them with further experiences. This paper gives a logical formulation of this revision process by focusing on the role of player’s beliefs. For this objective, we take the AGM approach of belief revision. The idea behind our logic is that the player’s belief state is represented by a belief set of propositional formulas, thereby describing a revision process for the belief states by using a revision operation in AGM theory. In this setting, the player’s personal views are described as models for the current belief set. We also present an application of our framework to a class of inductive games, called festival games, and show how to derive prejudices and discrimination in society.

In this paper, we study a dynamic Gaussian financial market model in which the traders form higher-order expectations about the fundamental value of a single risky asset. Rational uninformed traders are introduced into an otherwise standard differential information economy to investigate the impact of asymmetric information. In a two-period economy, there is a unique linear equilibrium; beauty contests under asymmetric information do not introduce excess volatility driven by self-fulfilling multiple equilibria. Under certain conditions, there is a nonmonotonic relationship between price volatility and the proportion of uninformed traders.

We reconsider the no trade theorem in an exchange economy where the traders have non-partition information. By introducing a new concept, rationality of expectations, we show some versions of the theorem different from previous works, such as Geanakoplos (http://cowles.econ.yale.edu, 1989). We also reexamine a standard assumption of the no trade theorem: the common prior assumption.

We investigate how childbirth affects intrahousehold resource allocation for married Japanese couples. We develop reduced-form and structural-form specifications from a unified theoretical framework. Under a weak set of assumptions, we can focus on private goods to track the changes in intrahousehold resource allocation. Our estimation results show that the allocation of resources within household tend to move to the disadvantage of women after a childbirth. One additional child is associated with at least 2.6 percentage points decrease in women's private expenditure share. Our estimation results reject the income-pooling hypothesis, and show that women are more risk averse than men.