Search

In a bonus-malus system in car insurance, the bonus class of a customer is updated from one year to the next as a function of the current class and the number of claims in the year (assumed Poisson). Thus the sequence of classes of a customer in consecutive years forms a Markov chain, and most of the literature measures performance of the system in terms of the stationary characteristics of this Markov chain. However, the rate of convergence to stationarity may be slow in comparison to the typical sojourn time of a customer in the portfolio. We suggest an age-correction to the stationary distribution and present an extensive numerical study of its effects. An important feature of the modeling is a Bayesian view, where the Poisson rate according to which claims are generated for a customer is the outcome of a random variable specific to the customer.

Two insurance companies I 1 , I 2 with reserves R 1 ( t ) , R 2 ( t ) compete for customers, such that in a suitable differential game the smaller company I 2 with R 2 ( 0 ) < R 1 ( 0 ) aims at minimizing R 1 ( t ) − R 2 ( t ) by using the premium p 2 as control and the larger I 1 at maximizing by using p 1 . Deductibles K 1 , K 2 are fixed but may be different. If K 1 > K 2 and I 2 is the leader choosing its premium first, conditions for Stackelberg equilibrium are established. For gamma-distributed rates of claim arrivals, explicit equilibrium premiums are obtained, and shown to depend on the running reserve difference. The analysis is based on the diffusion approximation to a standard Cramér-Lundberg risk process extended to allow investment in a risk-free asset.

Phase-type (PH) distributions are defined as distributions of lifetimes of finite continuous-time Markov processes. Their traditional applications are in queueing, insurance risk, and reliability, but more recently, also in finance and, though to a lesser extent, to life and health insurance. The advantage is that PH distributions form a dense class and that problems having explicit solutions for exponential distributions typically become computationally tractable under PH assumptions. In the first part of this paper, fitting of PH distributions to human lifetimes is considered. The class of generalized Coxian distributions is given special attention. In part, some new software is developed. In the second part, pricing of life insurance products such as guaranteed minimum death benefit and high-water benefit is treated for the case where the lifetime distribution is approximated by a PH distribution and the underlying asset price process is described by a jump diffusion with PH jumps. The expressions are typically explicit in terms of matrix-exponentials involving two matrices closely related to the Wiener-Hopf factorization, for which recently, a Lévy process version has been developed for a PH horizon. The computational power of the method of the approach is illustrated via a number of numerical examples.

In this paper we consider a compound Poisson risk model with regularly varying claim sizes. For this model in [4] an asymptotic formula for the finite time ruin probability is provided when the time is scaled by the mean excess function. In this paper we derive the rate of convergence for this finite time ruin probability when the claims are regularly varying with a finite second moment.

Well-behaved densities are typically log-convex with heavy tails and log-concave with light ones. We discuss a benchmark for distinguishing between the two cases, based on the observation that large values of a sum X 1 + X 2 occur as result of a single big jump with heavy tails whereas X 1 , X 2 are of equal order of magnitude in the light-tailed case. The method is based on the ratio | X 1 − X 2 | / ( X 1 + X 2 ) , for which sharp asymptotic results are presented as well as a visual tool for distinguishing between the two cases. The study supplements modern non-parametric density estimation methods where log-concavity plays a main role, as well as heavy-tailed diagnostics such as the mean excess plot.