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Exploration of asteroid (101955) Bennu by the OSIRIS-REx mission has provided an in-depth look at this rubble-pile near-Earth asteroid. In particular, the measured gravity field and the detailed shape model of Bennu indicate significant heterogeneities in its interior structure, compatible with a lower density at its center. Here we combine gravity inversion methods with a statistical rubble-pile model to determine the density and size-frequency distribution (SFD) index of the rubble that constitutes Bennu. The best-fitting models indicate that the SFD of the interior is consistent with that observed on the surface, with a cumulative SFD index of approximately $-2.9$. The rubble bulk density is approximately $1.35$ g/cm$^3$, corresponding to a $12$% macro-porosity. We find the largest rubble particle to be approximately $145$ m, whereas the largest void is approximately $10$ m., 14 pages, 5 figures, accepted to Icarus

International audience

An analysis of the surface and interior state of Asteroid (101955) Bennu, the target asteroid of the OSIRIS-REx sample return mission, is given using models based on Earth-based observations of this body. These observations have enabled models of its shape, spin state, mass and surface properties to be developed. Based on these data the range of surface and interior states possible for this body are evaluated, assuming a uniform mass distribution. These products include the geopotential, surface slopes, near-surface dynamical environment, interior stress states and other quantities of interest. In addition, competing theories for its current shape are reviewed along with the relevant planned OSIRIS-REx measurements.

We observed the near‐Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu from the ground in 1999 and 2005, and with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) in 2012, to constrain its rotation rate. The data reveal an acceleration of 2.64±1.05 × 10−6deg/day2, which could be due to a change in the moment of inertia of Bennu or to spin up from the Yarkovsky‐O'Keefe‐Radzievskii‐Paddack effect or other source of angular momentum. The best solution is within 1 σ of the period determined by Nolan et al. (2013, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2013.05.028). The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS‐REx) mission will determine the rotation state independently in 2019.Those measurements should show whether the change in rotation rate is a steady increase (due, e.g., to the Yarkovsky‐O'Keefe‐Radzievskii‐Paddack effect) or some other phenomenon. The precise shape and surface properties measured by the OSIRIS‐REx science team will allow for a better understanding of variations in rotation rate of small asteroids.

The OSIRIS-REx mission will conduct a Radio Science investigation of the asteroid Bennu with a primary goal of estimating the mass and gravity field of the asteroid. The spacecraft will conduct proximity operations around Bennu for over 1 year, during which time radiometric tracking data, optical landmark tracking images, and altimetry data will be obtained that can be used to make these estimates. Most significantly, the main Radio Science experiment will be a 9-day arc of quiescent operations in a 1-km nominally circular terminator orbit. The pristine data from this arc will allow the Radio Science team to determine the significant components of the gravity field up to the fourth spherical harmonic degree. The Radio Science team will also be responsible for estimating the surface accelerations, surface slopes, constraints on the internal density distribution of Bennu, the rotational state of Bennu to confirm YORP estimates, and the ephemeris of Bennu that incorporates a detailed model of the Yarkovsky effect.

In May of 2011, NASA selected the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) asteroid sample return mission as the third mission in the New Frontiers program. The other two New Frontiers missions are New Horizons, which explored Pluto during a flyby in July 2015 and is on its way for a flyby of Kuiper Belt object 2014 MU69 on Jan. 1, 2019, and Juno, an orbiting mission that is studying the origin, evolution, and internal structure of Jupiter. The spacecraft departed for near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu aboard an United Launch Alliance Atlas V 411 evolved expendable launch vehicle at 7:05 p.m. EDT on September 8, 2016, on a seven-year journey to return samples from Bennu. The spacecraft is on an outbound-cruise trajectory that will result in a rendezvous with Bennu in August 2018. The science instruments on the spacecraft will survey Bennu to measure its physical, geological, and chemical properties, and the team will use these data to select a site on the surface to collect at least 60 g of asteroid regolith. The team will also analyze the remote-sensing data to perform a detailed study of the sample site for context, assess Bennus resource potential, refine estimates of its impact probability with Earth, and provide ground-truth data for the extensive astronomical data set collected on this asteroid. The spacecraft will leave Bennu in 2021 and return the sample to the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) on September 24, 2023., Comment: 89 pages, 39 figures, submitted to Space Science Reviews - OSIRIS-REx special issue

International audience; On February 14, 2011 Stardust-NExT (SN) flew by Comet Tempel 1, the target of the Deep Impact (DI) mission in 2005, obtaining dust measurements and high-resolution images of areas surrounding the 2005 impact site, and extending image coverage to almost two thirds of the nucleus surface. The nucleus has an average radius of 2.83 +/- 0.1 km and a uniform geometric albedo of about 6% at visible wavelengths. Local elevation differences on the nucleus reach up to 830 m. At the time of encounter the spin rate was 213 degrees per day (period = 40.6 h) and the comet was producing some 130 kg of dust per second. Some 30% of the nucleus is covered by smooth flow-like deposits and related materials, restricted to gravitational lows. This distribution is consistent with the view that the smooth areas represent material erupted from the subsurface and date from a time after the nucleus achieved its current shape. It is possible that some of these eruptions occurred after 1609 when the comet's perihelion distance decreased from 3.5 AU to the current 1.5 AU. Much of the surface displays evidence of layering: some related to the smooth flows and some possibly dating back to the accretion of the nucleus. Pitted terrain covers approximately half the nucleus surface. The pits range up to 850 m in diameter. Due to their large number, they are unlikely to be impact scars: rather they probably result from volatile outbursts and sublimational erosion. The DI impact site shows a subdued depression some 50 m in diameter implying surface properties similar to those of dry, loose snow. It is possible that the 50-m depression is all that remains of an initially larger crater. In the region of overlapping DI and SN coverage most of the surface remained unchanged between 2005 and 2011 in albedo, photometric properties and morphology. Significant changes took place only along the edges of a prominent smooth flow estimated to be 10-15 m thick, the margins of which receded in places by up to 50 m. Coma and jet activity were lower in 2011 than in 2005. Most of the jets observed during the SN flyby can be traced back to an apparently eroding terraced scarp. The dust instruments detected bursts of impacts consistent with a process by which larger aggregates of material emitted from the nucleus subsequently fragment into smaller particles within the coma. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observations from the second encounter of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 by the Stardust-NExT spacecraft provide an improved shape model and rotational pole for the nucleus (Thomas, P.C. et al. [2012]. Icarus 222, 453–466) that allows us to greatly improve our knowledge of its rotational evolution beyond that outlined earlier in Belton et al. (Belton, M.J.S. et al. [2011]. Icarus 213, 345–368). Model light curves are shown to fit observations at both perihelia with a single pole direction indicating that polar precession during a single perihelion passage is small. We show that the rotational phasing associated with observations taken far from perihelion in the previous work was incorrectly assessed by approximately half a cycle leading us to a significant reassessment of the evolution of the non-gravitational torques acting on the nucleus. We present an updated spin rate profile (torque model) for the 2005 perihelion passage and show that retardation of the spin rate well before perihelion is no longer a required feature. With the exception of the spin rate before the 2000 perihelion passage, the evolution of rotational rates through the three most recent perihelion passages is largely unaffected as is the prediction of the rotational phase of the comet’s nucleus at the Stardust-NExT near-perihelion encounter. We find a spin rate of 209.4 ± 0.01°/d likely applies in the quiescent period before the 2000 perihelion, a 0.2% change, and that the rotational period shortened by 12.3 ± 0.2 min during the 2000 perihelion passage. We present an analysis of Stardust-NExT time-series photometry that yields a spin rate near 213.3 ± 0.8°/d at the time of encounter. An application of the 2005 torque model suggests that, while roughly similar, the torques were probably weaker during the 2011 perihelion passage.

We present observational data for Comet 9P/Tempel 1 taken from 1997 through 2010 in an international collaboration in support of the Deep Impact and Stardust-NExT missions. The data were obtained to characterize the nucleus prior to the Deep Impact 2005 encounter, and to enable us to understand the rotation state in order to make a time of arrival adjustment in February 2010 that would allow us to image at least 25% of the nucleus seen by the Deep Impact spacecraft to better than 80 m/pixel, and to image the crater made during the encounter, if possible. In total, similar to 500 whole or partial nights were allocated to this project at 14 observatories worldwide, utilizing 25 telescopes. Seventy percent of these nights yielded useful data. The data were used to determine the linear phase coefficient for the comet in the R-band to be 0.045 +/- 0.001 mag deg(-1) from 1 degrees to 16 degrees. Cometary activity was observed to begin inbound near r similar to 4.0 AU and the activity ended near r similar to 4.6 AU as seen from the heliocentric secular light curves, water-sublimation models and from dust dynamical modeling. The light curve exhibits a significant pre- and post-perihelion brightness and activity asymmetry. There was a secular decrease in activity between the 2000 and 2005 perihelion passages of similar to 20%. The post-perihelion light curve cannot be easily explained by a simple decrease in solar insolation or observing geometry. CN emission was detected in the comet at 2.43 AU pre-perihelion, and by r = 2.24 AU emission from C-2 and C-3 were evident. In December 2004 the production rate of CN increased from 1.8 x 10(23) mol s(-1) to Q(CN) = 2.75 x 10(23) mol s(-1) in early January 2005 and 9.3 x 10(24) mol s(-1) on June 6, 2005 at r = 1.53 AU. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Often a newly discovered near-Earth asteroid is linked to old observations of a formerly lost object. This orbital identification is done using a standard dynamical model that accounts for gravitational perturbations from planets and relativistic effects. Here we report the first case where such an identification requires consideration of the Yarkovsky effect, a tiny non-gravitational perturbation due to the recoil of thermal radiation from the body. Moreover, this implies that the Yarkovsky force is revealed in the orbital motion of the body, asteroid 152563 (1992 BF), only the second case so far. Orbital fits indicate a drift in the orbital semi-major axis of –(10.7 ± 0.7) × 10–4 AU Myr–1, which we ascribe to Yarkovsky forces. This yields a correlated constraint of physical parameters such as the obliquity, rotation rate, surface thermal inertial, and bulk density. The magnitude and direction of drift point to an obliquity in excess of 120°. Observations taken during 2011 and subsequent close encounters with the Earth might help establish rotation parameters and thereby constrain thermal inertia of 1992 BF, thus making the Yarkovsky strength a measure of this asteroid's bulk density.

We describe systematic ranging, an orbit determination technique especially suitable to assess the near-term Earth impact hazard posed by newly discovered asteroids. For these late warning cases, the time interval covered by the observations is generally short, perhaps a few hours or even less, which leads to severe degeneracies in the orbit estimation process. The systematic ranging approach gets around these degeneracies by performing a raster scan in the poorly-constrained space of topocentric range and range rate, while the plane of sky position and motion are directly tied to the recorded observations. This scan allows us to identify regions corresponding to collision solutions, as well as potential impact times and locations. From the probability distribution of the observation errors, we obtain a probability distribution in the orbital space and then estimate the probability of an Earth impact. We show how this technique is effective for a number of examples, including 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA, the only two asteroids to date discovered prior to impact.

We consider the possibility of detecting the Yarkovsky orbital perturbation acting on binary systems among the near-Earth asteroids. This task is significantly more difficult than for solitary asteroids because the Yarkovsky force affects both the heliocentric orbit of the system's center of mass and the relative orbit of the two components. Nevertheless, we argue these are sufficiently well decoupled so that the major Yarkovsky perturbation is in the simpler heliocentric motion and is observable with the current means of radar astrometry. Over the long term, the Yarkovsky perturbation in the relative motion of the two components is also detectable for the best observed systems. However, here we consider a simplified version of the problem by ignoring mutual non-spherical gravitational perturbations between the two asteroids. With the orbital plane constant in space and the components' rotation poles fixed (and assumed perpendicular to the orbital plane), we do not examine the coupling between Yarkovsky and gravitational effects. While radar observations remain an essential element of Yarkovsky detections, lightcurve observations, with their ability to track occultation and eclipse phenomena, are also very important in the case of binaries. The nearest possible future detection of the Yarkovsky effect for a binary system occurs for (66063) 1998 RO 1 in September 2006. Farther out, even more statistically significant detections are possible for several other systems including 2000 DP 107 , (66391) 1999 KW 4 and 1996 FG 3 .

We show that, over the next two decades, the current radar and optical astrometric technology is adequate to allow detection of the Yarkovsky effect acting on at least two dozen NEAs from a variety of orbital regimes and with effective diameters ranging from about ten meters up to several kilometers. The Yarkovsky effect will likely be detected for objects of rarer spectral types X, C, and E, as well as the more common S and Q. The next predicted detection of the Yarkovsky effect is for 4179 Toutatis in October 2004, which would be also the first multi-kilometer case. The Asteroid 25143 Itokawa, with a likely detection at the end of 2005, could offer an important test due to the independent “ground-truth” measurements of the asteroid mass and surface thermal inertia expected from the Hayabusa spacecraft. Earth co-orbital asteroids (e.g., 2000 PH5 or 2003 YN107) are the best placed for rapid determination of the Yarkovsky effect, and the timespan between discovery of the object and detection of the Yarkovsky effect may be as short as 3 years. By 2012, the motion of potential Earth impactor (29075) 1950 DA will likely reveal the magnitude of the Yarkovsky effect, which in turn will identify which of two possible pole orientations is correct. Vis-a-vis the 2880 impact, this new information will allow a substantial improvement in the quality of long term predictions.

We observed 25143 Itokawa, the target of Japans Hayabusa (MUSES-C) sample-return mission, during its 2001 close approach at Arecibo on twelve dates during March 18-April 9 and at Goldstone on nine dates during March 20-April 2. We obtained delay-Doppler images with range resolutions of 100 ns (15 m) at Arecibo and 125 ns (19 m) at Goldstone. Itokawas average circular polarization ratio at 13 cm, 0.26 ± 0.04, is comparable to that of Eros, so its cm-to-m surface roughness probably is comparable to that on Eros. Itokawas radar reflectivity and polarization properties indicate a near-surface bulk density within 20% of 2.5 g cm^(-3). We present a preliminary estimate of Itokawas shape, reconstructed from images with rather limited rotation-phase coverage, using the method of Hudson (1993) and assuming the lightcurve-derived spin period (12.132 hr) and pole direction (ecliptic long., lat. = 355°, -84°) of Kaasalainen et al. (2003). The model can be described as a slightly asymmetrical, slightly flattened ellipsoid with extents along its principal axes of 548 x 312 x 276 m ± 10%. Itokawas topography is very subdued compared to that of other asteroids for which spacecraft images or radar reconstructions are available. Similarly, gravitational slopes on our Itokawa model average only 9° and everywhere are less than 27°. The radar-refined orbit allows accurate identification of Itokawas close planetary approaches through 2170. If radar ranging planned for Itokawas 2004 apparition succeeds, then tracking of Hayabusa during its 2005 rendezvous should reveal Yarkovsky perturbation of the asteroids orbit.

The Mars flyby of C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) represented a unique opportunity for imaging a long-period comet and resolving its nucleus and rotation state. Because of the small encounter distance and the high relative velocity, the goal of successfully observing C/2013 A1 from the Mars orbiting spacecraft posed strict accuracy requirements on the comet’s ephemeris. These requirements were hard to meet, as comets are known for being highly unpredictable: astrometric observations can be significantly biased and nongravitational perturbations affect comet trajectories. Therefore, even prior to the encounter, we remeasured a couple of hundred astrometric images obtained with ground-based and Earth-orbiting telescopes. We also observed the comet with the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter’s High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera on 2014 October 7. In particular, these HiRISE observations were decisive in securing the trajectory and revealed that out-of-plane nongravitational perturbations were larger than previously assumed. Though the resulting ephemeris predictions for the Mars encounter allowed observations of the comet from the Mars orbiting spacecraft, post-encounter observations show a discrepancy with the pre-encounter trajectory. We reconcile this discrepancy by employing the Rotating Jet Model, which is a higher fidelity model for cometary nongravitational perturbations and provides an estimate of C/2013 A1’s spin pole ( RA , DEC ) = ( 63 ° , 14 ° ) .

Prior to the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) mission, little was known about Eros except for its orbit, spin rate, and pole orientation, which could be determined from ground-based telescope observations. Radar bounce data provided a rough estimate of the shape of Eros. On December 23, 1998, after an engine misfire, the NEAR-Shoemaker spacecraft flew by Eros on a high-velocity trajectory that provided a brief glimpse of Eros and allowed for an estimate of the asteroid's pole, prime meridian, and mass. This new information, when combined with the ground-based observations, provided good a priori estimates for processing data in the orbit phase. After a one-year delay, NEAR orbit operations began when the spacecraft was successfully inserted into a 320×360 km orbit about Eros on February 14, 2000. Since that time, the NEAR spacecraft was in many different types of orbits where radiometric tracking data, optical images, and NEAR laser rangefinder (NLR) data allowed a determination of the shape, gravity, and rotational state of Eros. The NLR data, collected predominantly from the 50-km orbit, together with landmark tracking from the optical data, have been processed to determine a 24th degree and order shape model. Radiometric tracking data and optical landmark data were used in a separate orbit determination process. As part of this latter process, the spherical harmonic gravity field of Eros was primarily determined from the 10 days in the 35-km orbit. Estimates for the gravity field of Eros were made as high as degree and order 15, but the coefficients are determined relative to their uncertainty only up to degree and order 10. The differences between the measured gravity field and one determined from a constant density shape model are detected relative to their uncertainty only to degree and order 6. The offset between the center of figure and the center of mass is only about 30 m, indicating that Eros has a very uniform density (1% variation) on a large scale (35 km). Variations to degree and order 6 (about 6 km) may be partly explained by the existence of a 100-m, regolith or by small internal density variations. The best estimates for the J2000 right ascension and declination of the pole of Eros are α=11.3692±0.003° and δ=17.2273±0.006°. The rotation rate of Eros is 1639.38922±0.00015°/day, which gives a rotation period of 5.27025547 h. No wobble greater than 0.02° has been detected. Solar gravity gradient torques would introduce a wobble of at most 0.001°.

We provide a scheme to correct asteroid astrometric observations for star catalog systematic errors due to inaccurate star positions and proper motions. As reference we select the most accurate stars in the PPMXL catalog, i.e., those based on 2MASS astrometry. We compute position and proper motion corrections for 19 of the most used star catalogs. The use of these corrections provides better ephemeris predictions and improves the error statistics of astrometric observations, e.g., by removing most of the regional systematic errors previously seen in Pan-STARRS PS1 asteroid astrometry. The correction table is publicly available at ftp://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/pub/ssd/debias/debias_2014.tgz and can be freely used in orbit determination algorithms to obtain more reliable asteroid trajectories.

The NEAR-Shoemaker spacecraft was designed to provide a comprehensive characterization of the S-type asteroid 433 Eros (refs 1,2,3), an irregularly shaped body with approximate dimensions of 34 x 13 x 13 km. Following the completion of its year-long investigation, the mission was terminated with a controlled descent to its surface, in order to provide extremely high resolution images. Here we report the results of the descent on 12 February 2001, during which 70 images were obtained. The landing area is marked by a paucity of small craters and an abundance of 'ejecta blocks'. The properties and distribution of ejecta blocks are discussed in a companion paper. The last sequence of images reveals a transition from the blocky surface to a smooth area, which we interpret as a 'pond'. Properties of the 'ponds' are discussed in a second companion paper. The closest image, from an altitude of 129 m, shows the interior of a 100-m-diameter crater at 1-cm resolution.

The Yarkovsky effect is a subtle nongravitational phenomenon related to the anisotropic thermal emission of Solar System objects. Its importance has been recently demonstrated in relation to the transport of material from the main asteroid belt (both to explain the origin of near-Earth asteroids and some properties of meteorites) and also in relation to the aging processes of the asteroid families. However, unlike the case of the artificial satellites, the Yarkovsky effect has never been measured or detected in the motion of natural bodies in the Solar System. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of detecting the Yarkovsky effect via precise orbit determination of near-Earth asteroids. Such a detection is feasible only with the existence of precise radar astrometry at multiple apparitions. Since the observability of the Yarkovsky perturbation accumulates quadratically with time the time span between radar observations is a critical factor. Though the current data do not clearly indicate the Yarkovsky effect in the motion of these bodies, we predict that the next apparition of several asteroids (in particular, 6489 Golevka, 1620 Geographos, and possibly 1566 Icarus) might reveal its existence. Moreover, we show that the Yarkovsky effect may play a very important role in the orbit determination of small, but still observable, bodies like 1998 KY26. If carefully followed, this body may serve as a superb probe of the Yarkovsky effect in its next close approach to the Earth in June 2024. c ∞ 2000 Academic Press

Context. Near-Earth asteroid (25143) Itokawa was visited by the Hayabusa spacecraft in 2005, resulting in a highly detailed shape and surface topography model. This model has led to several predictions for the expected radiative torques on this asteroid, suggesting that its spin rate should be decelerating.\ud \ud Aims. To detect changes in rotation rate that may be due to YORP-induced radiative torques, which in turn may be used to investigate the interior structure of the asteroid.\ud \ud Methods. Through an observational survey spanning 2001 to 2013 we obtained rotational lightcurve data at various times over the last five close Earth-approaches of the asteroid. We applied a polyhedron-shape-modelling technique to assess the spin-state of the asteroid and its long term evolution. We also applied a detailed thermophysical analysis to the shape model determined from the Hayabusa spacecraft.\ud \ud Results. We have successfully measured an acceleration in Itokawa’s spin rate of dω/dt = (3.54 ± 0.38) × 10-8 rad day-2, equivalent to a decrease of its rotation period of ~45 ms year-1. From the thermophysical analysis we find that the centre-of-mass for Itokawa must be shifted by ~21 m along the long-axis of the asteroid to reconcile the observed YORP strength with theory.\ud \ud Conclusions. This can be explained if Itokawa is composed of two separate bodies with very different bulk densities of 1750 ± 110 kg m-3 and 2850 ± 500 kg m-3, and was formed from the merger of two separate bodies, either in the aftermath of a catastrophic disruption of a larger differentiated body, or from the collapse of a binary system. We therefore demonstrate that an observational measurement of radiative torques, when combined with a detailed shape model, can provide insight into the interior structure of an asteroid. Futhermore, this is the first measurement of density inhomogeneity within an asteroidal body, that reveals significant internal structure variation. A specialised spacecraft is normally required for this.

In this paper we perform an assessment of the 2880 Earth impact risk for Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA. To obtain reliable predictions we analyze the contribution of the observational dataset and the astrometric treatment, the numerical error in the long-term integration, and the different accelerations acting on the asteroid. The main source of uncertainty is the Yarkovsky effect, which we statistically model starting from 1950 DA’s available physical characterization, astrometry, and dynamical properties. Before the release of 2012 radar data, this modeling suggests that 1950 DA has 99% likelihood of being a retrograde rotator. By using a 7-dimensional Monte Carlo sampling we map 1950 DA’s uncertainty region to the 2880 close approach b-plane and find a 5 × 10 - 4 impact probability. With the recently released 2012 radar observations, the direct rotation is definitely ruled out and the impact probability decreases to 2.5 × 10 - 4 .

International audience; The nucleus of comet Tempel 1 has been investigated at close range during two spacecraft missions separated by one comet orbit of the Sun, 51/2 years. The combined imaging covers similar to 70% of the surface of this object which has a mean radius of 2.83 +/- 0.1 km. The surface can be divided into two terrain types: rough, pitted terrain and smoother regions of varying local topography. The rough surface has round depressions from resolution limits (similar to 10 m/pixel) up to similar to 1 km across, spanning forms from crisp steep-walled pits, to subtle albedo rings, to topographic rings, with all ranges of morphologic gradation. Three gravitationally low regions of the comet have smoother terrain, parts of which appear to be deposits from minimally modified flows, with other parts likely to be heavily eroded portions of multiple layer piles. Changes observed between the two missions are primarily due to backwasting of scarps bounding one of these probable flow deposits. This style of erosion is also suggested by remnant mesa forms in other areas of smoother terrain. The two distinct terrains suggest either an evolutionary change in processes, topographically-controlled processes, or a continuing interaction of erosion and deposition. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

We assess the risk of an Earth impact for asteroid (99942) Apophis by means of a statistical analysis accounting for the uncertainty of both the orbital solution and the Yarkovsky effect. We select those observations with either rigorous uncertainty information provided by the observer or a high established accuracy. For the Yarkovsky effect we perform a Monte Carlo simulation that fully accounts for the uncertainty in the physical characterization, especially for the unknown spin orientation. By mapping the uncertainty information onto the 2029 b-plane and identifying the keyholes corresponding to subsequent impacts we assess the impact risk for future encounters. In particular, we find an impact probability greater than 10^-6 for an impact in 2068. We analyze the stability of the impact probability with respect to the assumptions on Apophis' physical characterization and consider the possible effect of the early 2013 radar apparition.

We have identified and quantified semi-major axis drifts in Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by performing orbital fits to optical and radar astrometry of all numbered NEAs. We focus on a subset of 54 NEAs that exhibit some of the most reliable and strongest drift rates. Our selection criteria include a Yarkovsky sensitivity metric that quantifies the detectability of semi-major axis drift in any given data set, a signal-to-noise metric, and orbital coverage requirements. In 42 cases, the observed drifts (~10^-3 AU/Myr) agree well with numerical estimates of Yarkovsky drifts. This agreement suggests that the Yarkovsky effect is the dominant non-gravitational process affecting these orbits, and allows us to derive constraints on asteroid physical properties. In 12 cases, the drifts exceed nominal Yarkovsky predictions, which could be due to inaccuracies in our knowledge of physical properties, faulty astrometry, or modeling errors. If these high rates cannot be ruled out by further observations or improvements in modeling, they would be indicative of the presence of an additional non-gravitational force, such as that resulting from a loss of mass of order a kilogram per second. We define the Yarkovsky efficiency f_Y as the ratio of the change in orbital energy to incident solar radiation energy, and we find that typical Yarkovsky efficiencies are ~10^-5., Accepted for publication by The Astronomical Journal. 42 pages, 8 figures

Examining the albedo distribution of the near-Earth object (NEO) population allows for a better understanding of the relationship between absolute (H) magnitude and size, which impacts calculations of the size frequency distribution and impact hazards. Examining NEO albedos also sheds light on the differences between the NEO and Main Belt populations. We combine albedo results from the ExploreNEOs Warm Spitzer Exploration Science program with taxonomic classifications from the literature, publicly available data sets, and new observations from our concurrent spectral survey to derive the average albedos for C-, D-, Q-, S-, V-, and X-complex NEOs. Using a sample size of 118 NEOs, we calculate average albedos of 0.29+0.05 –0.04, 0.26+0.04 –0.03, and 0.42+0.13 –0.11 for the Q-, S-, and V-complexes, respectively. The averages for the C- and D-complexes are 0.13+0.06 –0.05 and 0.02+0.02 –0.01, but these averages are based on a small number of objects (five and two, respectively) and will improve with additional observations. We use albedos to assign X-complex asteroids to one of the E-, M-, or P-types. Our results demonstrate that the average albedos for the C-, S-, V-, and X-complexes are higher for NEOs than the corresponding averages observed in the Main Belt.

We report on results of observations of near-Earth objects (NEOs) performed with the NASA Spitzer Space Telescope as part of our ongoing (2009-2011) Warm Spitzer NEO survey ("ExploreNEOs"), the primary aim of which is to provide sizes and albedos of some 700 NEOs. The emphasis of the work described here is an assessment of the overall accuracy of our survey results, which are based on a semi-empirical generalized model of asteroid thermal emission. The NASA Spitzer Space Telescope has been operated in the so-called Warm Spitzer mission phase since the cryogen was depleted in 2009 May, with the two shortest-wavelength channels, centered at 3.6 μm and 4.5 μm, of the Infrared Array Camera continuing to provide valuable data. The set of some 170 NEOs in our current Warm Spitzer results catalog contains 28 for which published taxonomic classifications are available, and 14 for which relatively reliable published diameters and albedos are available. A comparison of the Warm Spitzer results with previously published results ("ground truth"), complemented by a Monte Carlo error analysis, indicates that the rms Warm Spitzer diameter and albedo errors are ±20% and ±50%, respectively. Cases in which agreement with results from the literature is worse than expected are highlighted and discussed; these include the potential spacecraft target 138911 2001 AE_2. We confirm that 1.4 appears to be an appropriate overall default value for the relative reflectance between the V band and the Warm Spitzer wavelengths, for use in correction of the Warm Spitzer fluxes for reflected solar radiation.

We characterize the region in orbital elements space containing collisions solutions of a small body with a planet, in the framework of the analytical theory of close encounters. This allows us to derive an analytical estimate of the probability of collision somewhat different from the well‐known one given by Opik.

We have begun the ExploreNEOs project in which we observe some 700 Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) at 3.6 and 4.5 μm with the Spitzer Space Telescope in its Warm Spitzer mode. From these measurements and catalog optical photometry we derive albedos and diameters of the observed targets. The overall goal of our ExploreNEOs program is to study the history of near-Earth space by deriving the physical properties of a large number of NEOs. In this paper, we describe both the scientific and technical construction of our ExploreNEOs program. We present our observational, photometric, and thermal modeling techniques. We present results from the first 101 targets observed in this program. We find that the distribution of albedos in this first sample is quite broad, probably indicating a wide range of compositions within the NEO population. Many objects smaller than 1 km have high albedos (≳0.35), but few objects larger than 1 km have high albedos. This result is consistent with the idea that these larger objects are collisionally older, and therefore possess surfaces that are more space weathered and therefore darker, or are not subject to other surface rejuvenating events as frequently as smaller NEOs.

Space missions to near-Earth objects (NEOs) are being planned at all major space agencies, and recently a manned mission to an NEO was announced as a NASA goal. Efforts to find and select suitable targets (plus backup targets) are severely hampered by our lack of knowledge of the physical properties of dynamically favorable NEOs. In particular, current mission scenarios tend to favor primitive low-albedo objects. For the vast majority of NEOs, the albedo is unknown. Here we report new constraints on the size and albedo of 65 NEOs with rendezvous Δv