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The article of record as published may be found at https://warontherocks.com/2020/09/making-a-u-s-digital-service-academy-work/

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s analysis focuses on key questions related to existing and emerging threats to U.S. national security, and its goal is to enable policymakers to make informed decisions on matters of strategy, security policy, and resource allocation.

SEED Center Paper The Assessment Division, Navy Headquarters Staff (OPNAV N81) uses large-scale simulation to analyze how budgeted capabilities and capacities map to risk in various scenarios. The Navy, along with the Air Force and Marine Corps, use the Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM) to assess risk in an integrated, campaign setting. Ultimately, analyses performed in STORM inform the decisions made by the Services for future resource planning. STORM is a large, stochastic campaign-level simulation that requires many inputs for a given scenario and generates an enormous amount of output data, which then needs to be turned into an analysis product. We are developing tools and methods that: (1) reduce the amount of manpower and time required to complete STORM output post-processing, (2) determine, in a sequential dynamic manner, a sufficient number of replications to perform, (3) support STORM verification and validation, and (4) boost the speed and precision with which analysts are able to gather insights from a set of simulation runs.

This article was presented presented at the 81.2 MORSS (Military Operations Research Society Symposia), June 17-20, 2013, Alexandria VA. It was a nominee for the Richard H. Barchi Prize. This work, with a slightly different title, was accepted for publication in Mathematical Biosciences. The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2013.10.009. We develop an extension to differential equation models of dynamical systems to allow us to analyze probabilistic threshold dynamics that fundamentally and globally change system behavior. We apply our novel modeling approach to two cases of interest: a model of infectious disease modified for malware where a detection event drastically changes dynamics by introducing a new class in competition with the original infection; and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability drastically changes the effectiveness of one of the sides. We derive and demonstrate a step-by-step, repeatable method for applying our novel modeling approach to an arbitrary system, and we compare the resulting differential equations to simulations of the system's random progression. Our work leads to a simple and easily implemented method for analyzing probabilistic threshold dynamics using differential equations.

Introduction: This paper aims to provide insights into human perception, navigation performance, and confi dence in helicopter overland navigation. Helicopter overland navigation is a challenging mission area because it is a complex cognitive task, and failing to recognize when the aircraft is off-course can lead to operational failures and mishaps. Methods: A human-in-the-loop experiment to investigate pilot perception during simulated overland navigation by analyzing actual navigation trajectory, pilots ’ perceived location, and corresponding confi dence levels was designed. There were 15 military offi cers with prior overland navigation experience who completed 4 simulated low-level navigation routes, 2 of which entailed auto-navigation. This route was paused roughly every 30 s for the subject to mark their perceived location on the map and their confi dence level using a customized program. Results: Analysis shows that there is no correlation between perceived and actual location of the aircraft, nor between confi dence level and actual location. There is, however, some evidence that there is a correlation ( r 5 2 0.60 ; 2 0.65) between perceived location and intended route of fl ight, suggesting that there is a bias toward believing one is on the intended fl ight route. Discussion: If aviation personnel can proactively identify the circumstances in which usual misperceptions occur in navigation, they may reduce mission failure and accident rate. Fleet squadrons and instructional commands can benefi t from this study to improve operations that require low-level fl ight while also improving crew resource management.

Like many of us, I feel as though I've been an analyst all my life. Wile it was always part of who I am, it was not my professional until relatively recently. One of the things I got to do on the way "here" was to sell Crhistmas trees. Since it's the November-December edition of the magazine, I thought I would take some time to think about the purchase of Christmas trees from an analytic point of view.

How bad is it to get on the wrong train? We've carefully bounded the problem such that the only costs are in terms of time.

We develop an extension to differential equation models of dynamical systems to allow us to analyze probabilistic threshold dynamics that fundamentally change system behavior. We apply our novel modeling approach to two cases of interest: a model of cyber infection, where a detection event drastically changes dynamics, and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability drastically changes dynamics. We derive and demonstrate a stepby- step, repeatable method for applying our novel modeling approach to an arbitrary system, and we compare the resulting differential equations to simulations of the system’s random progression. Our work leads to a simple and easily implemented method for analyzing probabilistic threshold dynamics using differential equations. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.