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7. Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high‐emission climate change scenario

Author

Muhling, Barbara A, Jacobs, John, Stock, Charles A, Gaitan, Carlos F, and Saba, Vincent S

Subjects
Digestive Diseases, Rare Diseases, Foodborne Illness, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Climate Action, Chesapeake Bay, climate change, Vibrio, habitat modeling, Climate change science, Environmental management, Public health
Abstract

Illness caused by pathogenic strains of Vibrio bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing Vibrio habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, while projected increase in V. cholerae habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on Vibrios in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with Vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.

Published
2017

11. Challenges of modeling depth-integrated marine primary productivity over multiple decades: A case study at BATS and HOT

Author

Saba, Vincent S, Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M, Carr, Mary-Elena, Antoine, David, Armstrong, Robert A, Asanuma, Ichio, Aumont, Olivier, Bates, Nicholas R, Behrenfeld, Michael J, Bennington, Val, Bopp, Laurent, Bruggeman, Jorn, Buitenhuis, Erik T, Church, Matthew J, Ciotti, Aurea M, Doney, Scott C, Dowell, Mark, Dunne, John, Dutkiewicz, Stephanie, Gregg, Watson, Hoepffner, Nicolas, Hyde, Kimberly J. W, Ishizaka, Joji, Kameda, Takahiko, Karl, David M, Lima, Ivan, Lomas, Michael W, Marra, John, McKinley, Galen A, Melin, Frederic, Moore, J. Keith, Morel, Andre, O'Reilly, John, Salihoglu, Baris, Scardi, Michele, Smyth, Tim J, Tang, Shilin, Tjiputra, Jerry, Uitz, Julia, Vichi, Marcello, Waters, Kirk, Westberry, Toby K, and Yool, Andrew

Subjects
10.1029/2009GB003655
Abstract

The performance of 36 models (22 ocean color models and 14 biogeochemical ocean circulation models (BOGCMs)) that estimate depth-integrated marine net primary productivity (NPP) was assessed by comparing their output to in situ 14C data at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Study (BATS) and the Hawaii Ocean Time series (HOT) over nearly two decades. Specifically, skill was assessed based on the models' ability to estimate the observed mean, variability, and trends of NPP. At both sites, more than 90% of the models underestimated mean NPP, with the average bias of the BOGCMs being nearly twice that of the ocean color models. However, the difference in overall skill between the best BOGCM and the best ocean color model at each site was not significant. Between 1989 and 2007, in situ NPP at BATS and HOT increased by an average of nearly 2% per year and was positively correlated to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index. The majority of ocean color models produced in situ NPP trends that were closer to the observed trends when chlorophyll-a was derived from high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), rather than fluorometric or SeaWiFS data. However, this was a function of time such that average trend magnitude was more accurately estimated over longer time periods. Among BOGCMs, only two individual models successfully produced an increasing NPP trend (one model at each site). We caution against the use of models to assess multiannual changes in NPP over short time periods. Ocean color model estimates of NPP trends could improve if more high quality HPLC chlorophyll-a time series were available.

Published
2010

12. Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Author

Friedrichs, Marjorie AM, Carr, Mary-Elena, Barber, Richard T, Scardi, Michele, Antoine, David, Armstrong, Robert A, Asanuma, Ichio, Behrenfeld, Michael J, Buitenhuis, Erik T, Chai, Fei, Christian, James R, Ciotti, Aurea M, Doney, Scott C, Dowell, Mark, Dunne, John, Gentili, Bernard, Gregg, Watson, Hoepffner, Nicolas, Ishizaka, Joji, Kameda, Takahiko, Lima, Ivan, Marra, John, Mélin, Frédéric, Moore, J Keith, Morel, André, O'Malley, Robert T, O'Reilly, Jay, Saba, Vincent S, Schmeltz, Marjorie, Smyth, Tim J, Tjiputra, Jerry, Waters, Kirk, Westberry, Toby K, and Winguth, Arne

Subjects
Life Below Water, Primary production, Modeling, Remote sensing, Satellite ocean color, Statistical analysis, Tropical Pacific Ocean (15 degrees N to 15 degrees S and 125 degrees E, to 95 degrees W), Oceanography
Abstract

Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color-based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BOGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of ∼ 1000 14C measurements spanning more than a decade (1983-1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PP, specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 g C m- 2 d- 1) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomass-normalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140°W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison 6 years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill. © 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Published
2009

14. Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

Author

Tommasi, Desiree, Stock, Charles A., Hobday, Alistair J., Methot, Rick, Kaplan, Isaac C., Eveson, J. Paige, Holsman, Kirstin, Miller, Timothy J., Gaichas, Sarah, Gehlen, Marion, Pershing, Andrew, Vecchi, Gabriel A., Msadek, Rym, Delworth, Tom, Eakin, C. Mark, Haltuch, Melissa A., Séférian, Roland, Spillman, Claire M., Hartog, Jason R., Siedlecki, Samantha, Samhouri, Jameal F., Muhling, Barbara, Asch, Rebecca G., Pinsky, Malin L., Saba, Vincent S., Kapnick, Sarah B., Gaitan, Carlos F., Rykaczewski, Ryan R., Alexander, Michael A., Xue, Yan, Pegion, Kathleen V., Lynch, Patrick, Payne, Mark R., Kristiansen, Trond, Lehodey, Patrick, and Werner, Francisco E.

Published
2017
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32. Diversity in thermal affinity among key piscivores buffersimpacts of ocean warming on predator–prey interactions

Author

Selden, Rebecca L., Batt, Ryan D., Saba, Vincent S., and Pinsky, Malin L.

Subjects
Predator–prey, Marine, Climate Change, Spatial overlap, Species distribution model, Functional diversity
Abstract

Asymmetries in responses to climate change have the potential to alter importantpredator–prey interactions, in part by altering the location and size of spatial refugiafor prey. We evaluated the effect of ocean warming on interactions between fourimportant piscivores and four of their prey in the U.S. Northeast Shelf by examiningspecies overlap under historical conditions (1968–2014) and with a doubling in CO2.Because both predator and prey shift their distributions in response to changingocean conditions, the net impact of warming or cooling on predator–prey interac-tions was not determined a priori from the range extent of either predator or preyalone. For Atlantic cod, an historically dominant piscivore in the region, we foundthat both historical and future warming led to a decline in the proportion of preyspecies’ range it occupied and caused a potential reduction in its ability to exerttop-down control on these prey. In contrast, the potential for overlap of spiny dog-fish with prey species was enhanced by warming, expanding their importance aspredators in this system. In sum, the decline in the ecological role for cod thatbegan with overfishing in this ecosystem will likely be exacerbated by warming, butthis loss may be counteracted by the rise in dominance of other piscivores withcontrasting thermal preferences. Functional diversity in thermal affinity within thepiscivore guild may therefore buffer against the impact of warming on marineecosystems, suggesting a novel mechanism by which diversity confers resilience.

Published
2018
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34. Northeast Regional Action Plan - NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy

Author

Hare, Jonathan A., Anderson, Jennifer, Burns, Peter, Chu, Kevin, Clay, Patricia M., Collins, Mathias J., Cooper, Peter, Fratantoni, Paula Sue, Johnson, Michael R. (Michael Ray), Manderson, John P., Milke, Lisa M., Miller, Timothy J. (Timothy Jason), 1972, Orphanides, Christopher, and Saba, Vincent S.

Abstract

The Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem supports a wide array of living marine resources from Atlantic sea scallops, one of the most valuable, to the North Atlantic Right whale, one of the most endangered. All of these resources - fish, invertebrates, marine mammals, sea turtles, plants, habitats, and other ecosystem components - are being impacted by climate change and multidecadal climate variability. In fact, the pace of observed climate change in the Northeast U.S. is faster than in many other U.S. Large Marine Ecosystems, and future change in the Northeast U.S. Shelf ecosystem is projected to be greater than many other portions of the world’s oceans. These changes in climate are already creating significant challenges for the region. Species distributions are becoming out of sync with the spatial allocations of management. The productivity of some iconic species is decreasing, making rebuilding and recovery difficult. Some ports rely on one or two fisheries; changes in these fisheries could have dramatic consequences for the human communities connected to these ports. Changes in science and management can be slow, while changes in the physics, chemistry, and biology of the ecosystem are occurring rapidly. Despite these challenges, there are opportunities. Some species in the region are responding positively to the changes in climate: moving into the region and increasing in productivity. For many managed species, management actions can occur relatively rapidly: the New England Fisheries Management Council (NEFMC) and Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management Council (MAFMC) have developed specification procedures and framework adjustments that can be implemented within a year of receiving new, peer-reviewed advice. The region has an excellent marine science infrastructure and advanced technologies offer new tools for observing, understanding, and adapting to change. Recognizing the opportunities and challenges resulting from climate change, NOAA Fisheries released the Climate Science Strategy in August 2015. This Strategy develops a national framework to meet the growing demand for information to better prepare for and respond to climate-related impacts on the nation’s living marine resources and resource-dependent communities.

Published
2016
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36. Net primary productivity estimates and environmental variables in the Arctic Ocean: An assessment of coupled physical-biogeochemical models

Author

Lee, Younjoo J., Matrai, Patricia A., Friedrichs, Marjorie A.M., Saba, Vincent S., Aumount, Olivier, Babin, Marcel, Buitenhuis, Erik T., Chevallier, Matthieu, de Mora, Lee, Dessert, Morgane, Dunne, John P., Ellingsen, Ingrid H., Feldman, Doron, Frouin, Robert, Gehlen, Marion, Gorguess, Thomas, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jin, Meibing, John, Jasmin G., Lawrence, Jon, Manizza, Manfredi, Menkes, Christophe E., Perruche, Coralie, Le Fouest, Vincent, Popova, Ekaterina E., Romanou, Anastasia, Samuelsen, Annette, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Stock, Charles A., Tjiputra, Jerry, Tremblay, L. Bruno, Ueyoshi, Kyozo, Vichi, Marcello, Yool, Andrew, Zhang, Jinlun, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS), NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Takuvik Joint International Laboratory ULAVAL-CNRS, Université Laval [Québec] (ULaval)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich], University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, International Arctic Research Center (IARC), University of Alaska [Fairbanks] (UAF), National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, PaleoEnvironnements et PaleobioSphere (PEPS), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Mercator Océan, Société Civile CNRS Ifremer IRD Météo-France SHOM, Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés (LIENSs), La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen] (NERSC), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Montréal], McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Department of Oceanography [Cape Town], University of Cape Town, Applied Physics Laboratory [Seattle] (APL-UW), University of Washington [Seattle], Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Laval [Québec] (ULaval), Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California-University of California, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés - UMRi 7266 (LIENSs), Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.), and Oceanography

Subjects
Arctic models underestimated net primary productivity (NPP) but overestimated nitrate, mixed layer depth, and euphotic depth, [SDU.STU.GC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geochemistry, Arctic NPP model skill was greatest in low production regions, Arctic NPP model skill was constrained by different environmental factors in different Arctic Ocean regions, Article, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography
Abstract

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JC011993 Upon publication, the in situ data will be available for academic purposes through the NASA SeaWiFS Bio-optical Archive and Storage System (http:// seabass.gsfc.nasa.gov/), including NPP, NO3, and Zeu. The relative skill of 21 regional and global biogeochemical models was assessed in terms of how well the models reproduced observed net primary productivity (NPP) and environmental variables such as nitrate concentration (NO3), mixed layer depth (MLD), euphotic layer depth (Zeu), and sea ice concentration, by comparing results against a newly updated, quality-controlled in situ NPP database for the Arctic Ocean (1959–2011). The models broadly captured the spatial features of integrated NPP (iNPP) on a pan-Arctic scale. Most models underestimated iNPP by varying degrees in spite of overestimating surface NO3, MLD, and Zeu throughout the regions. Among the models, iNPP exhibited little difference over sea ice condition (ice-free versus ice-influenced) and bottom depth (shelf versus deep ocean). The models performed relatively well for the most recent decade and toward the end of Arctic summer. In the Barents and Greenland Seas, regional model skill of surface NO3 was best associated with how well MLD was reproduced. Regionally, iNPP was relatively well simulated in the Beaufort Sea and the central Arctic Basin, where in situ NPP is low and nutrients are mostly depleted. Models performed less well at simulating iNPP in the Greenland and Chukchi Seas, despite the higher model skill in MLD and sea ice concentration, respectively. iNPP model skill was constrained by different factors in different Arctic Ocean regions. Our study suggests that better parameterization of biological and ecological microbial rates (phytoplankton growth and zooplankton grazing) are needed for improved Arctic Ocean biogeochemical modeling. National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry (OBB) The project ‘‘Green Mercator’’ National Program CNRS/LEFE/INSU. NSF Office of Polar Programs FP7 MyOcean2 PAVE (Polish-Norwegian Research Program) Norwegian Supercomputing Project (NOTUR2) Research Council of Norway funded project ORGANIC NASA Cryosphere program CNRM-CM climate model Météo-France/DSI supercomputing Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry (OBB) NNX13AE81G NSF Office of Polar Programs PLR- 1417925 NSF Office of Polar Programs PLR-1416920 FP7 MyOcean2 (project number 283367) Research Council of Norway funded project ORGANIC (239965/RU) NASA Cryosphere program (NNX15AG68G).

Published
2016

38. Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

Author

Bjorndal, Karen A., primary, Bolten, Alan B., additional, Chaloupka, Milani, additional, Saba, Vincent S., additional, Bellini, Cláudio, additional, Marcovaldi, Maria A. G., additional, Santos, Armando J. B., additional, Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig, additional, Meylan, Anne B., additional, Meylan, Peter A., additional, Gray, Jennifer, additional, Hardy, Robert, additional, Brost, Beth, additional, Bresette, Michael, additional, Gorham, Jonathan C., additional, Connett, Stephen, additional, Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver, additional, Dawson, Mike, additional, Hayes, Deborah, additional, Diez, Carlos E., additional, van Dam, Robert P., additional, Willis, Sue, additional, Nava, Mabel, additional, Hart, Kristen M., additional, Cherkiss, Michael S., additional, Crowder, Andrew G., additional, Pollock, Clayton, additional, Hillis‐Starr, Zandy, additional, Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A., additional, Herrera‐Pavón, Roberto, additional, Labrada‐Martagón, Vanessa, additional, Lorences, Armando, additional, Negrete‐Philippe, Ana, additional, Lamont, Margaret M., additional, Foley, Allen M., additional, Bailey, Rhonda, additional, Carthy, Raymond R., additional, Scarpino, Russell, additional, McMichael, Erin, additional, Provancha, Jane A., additional, Brooks, Annabelle, additional, Jardim, Adriana, additional, López‐Mendilaharsu, Milagros, additional, González‐Paredes, Daniel, additional, Estrades, Andrés, additional, Fallabrino, Alejandro, additional, Martínez‐Souza, Gustavo, additional, Vélez‐Rubio, Gabriela M., additional, Boulon, Ralf H., additional, Collazo, Jaime A., additional, Wershoven, Robert, additional, Guzmán Hernández, Vicente, additional, Stringell, Thomas B., additional, Sanghera, Amdeep, additional, Richardson, Peter B., additional, Broderick, Annette C., additional, Phillips, Quinton, additional, Calosso, Marta, additional, Claydon, John A. B., additional, Metz, Tasha L., additional, Gordon, Amanda L., additional, Landry, Andre M., additional, Shaver, Donna J., additional, Blumenthal, Janice, additional, Collyer, Lucy, additional, Godley, Brendan J., additional, McGowan, Andrew, additional, Witt, Matthew J., additional, Campbell, Cathi L., additional, Lagueux, Cynthia J., additional, Bethel, Thomas L., additional, and Kenyon, Lory, additional

Published
2017
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39. Operationalizing integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team: lessons learned from a worked example

Author

DePiper, Geret S., primary, Gaichas, Sarah K., additional, Lucey, Sean M., additional, Pinto da Silva, Patricia, additional, Anderson, M. Robin, additional, Breeze, Heather, additional, Bundy, Alida, additional, Clay, Patricia M., additional, Fay, Gavin, additional, Gamble, Robert J., additional, Gregory, Robert S., additional, Fratantoni, Paula S., additional, Johnson, Catherine L., additional, Koen-Alonso, Mariano, additional, Kleisner, Kristin M., additional, Olson, Julia, additional, Perretti, Charles T., additional, Pepin, Pierre, additional, Phelan, Fred, additional, Saba, Vincent S., additional, Smith, Laurel A., additional, Tam, Jamie C., additional, Templeman, Nadine D., additional, and Wildermuth, Robert P., additional

Published
2017
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42. Somatic growth dynamics of West Atlantic hawksbill sea turtles: a spatio‐temporal perspective

Author

Bjorndal, Karen A., primary, Chaloupka, Milani, additional, Saba, Vincent S., additional, Diez, Carlos E., additional, van Dam, Robert P., additional, Krueger, Barry H., additional, Horrocks, Julia A., additional, Santos, Armando J. B., additional, Bellini, Cláudio, additional, Marcovaldi, Maria A. G., additional, Nava, Mabel, additional, Willis, Sue, additional, Godley, Brendan J., additional, Gore, Shannon, additional, Hawkes, Lucy A., additional, McGowan, Andrew, additional, Witt, Matthew J., additional, Stringell, Thomas B., additional, Sanghera, Amdeep, additional, Richardson, Peter B., additional, Broderick, Annette C., additional, Phillips, Quinton, additional, Calosso, Marta C., additional, Claydon, John A. B., additional, Blumenthal, Janice, additional, Moncada, Felix, additional, Nodarse, Gonzalo, additional, Medina, Yosvani, additional, Dunbar, Stephen G., additional, Wood, Lawrence D., additional, Lagueux, Cynthia J., additional, Campbell, Cathi L., additional, Meylan, Anne B., additional, Meylan, Peter A., additional, Burns Perez, Virginia R., additional, Coleman, Robin A., additional, Strindberg, Samantha, additional, Guzmán‐H., Vicente, additional, Hart, Kristen M., additional, Cherkiss, Michael S., additional, Hillis‐Starr, Zandy, additional, Lundgren, Ian F., additional, Boulon, Ralf H., additional, Connett, Stephen, additional, Outerbridge, Mark E., additional, and Bolten, Alan B., additional

Published
2016
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43. The Effects of Sub-Regional Climate Velocity on the Distribution and Spatial Extent of Marine Species Assemblages

Author

Kleisner, Kristin M., primary, Fogarty, Michael J., additional, McGee, Sally, additional, Barnett, Analie, additional, Fratantoni, Paula, additional, Greene, Jennifer, additional, Hare, Jonathan A., additional, Lucey, Sean M., additional, McGuire, Christopher, additional, Odell, Jay, additional, Saba, Vincent S., additional, Smith, Laurel, additional, Weaver, Katherine J., additional, and Pinsky, Malin L., additional

Published
2016
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44. Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change

Author

Saba, Vincent S., primary, Griffies, Stephen M., additional, Anderson, Whit G., additional, Winton, Michael, additional, Alexander, Michael A., additional, Delworth, Thomas L., additional, Hare, Jonathan A., additional, Harrison, Matthew J., additional, Rosati, Anthony, additional, Vecchi, Gabriel A., additional, and Zhang, Rong, additional

Published
2016
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45. Seasonal phytoplankton blooms in the North Atlantic linked to the overwintering strategies of copepods

Author

Friedland, Kevin D., primary, Record, Nicholas R., additional, Asch, Rebecca G., additional, Kristiansen, Trond, additional, Saba, Vincent S., additional, Drinkwater, Kenneth F., additional, Henson, Stephanie, additional, Leaf, Robert T., additional, Morse, Ryan E., additional, Johns, David G., additional, Large, Scott I., additional, Hjøllo, Solfrid S., additional, Nye, Janet A., additional, Alexander, Mike A., additional, and Ji, Rubao, additional

Published
2016
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46. Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles

Author

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar, primary, Saba, Vincent S., additional, Lombard, Claudia D., additional, Valiulis, Jennifer M., additional, Robinson, Nathan J., additional, Paladino, Frank V., additional, Spotila, James R., additional, Fernández, Carlos, additional, Rivas, Marga L., additional, Tucek, Jenny, additional, Nel, Ronel, additional, and Oro, Daniel, additional

Published
2015
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47. An assessment of phytoplankton primary productivity in the Arctic Ocean from satellite ocean color/in situ chlorophyll‐a based models

Author

Lee, Younjoo J., primary, Matrai, Patricia A., additional, Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M., additional, Saba, Vincent S., additional, Antoine, David, additional, Ardyna, Mathieu, additional, Asanuma, Ichio, additional, Babin, Marcel, additional, Bélanger, Simon, additional, Benoît‐Gagné, Maxime, additional, Devred, Emmanuel, additional, Fernández‐Méndez, Mar, additional, Gentili, Bernard, additional, Hirawake, Toru, additional, Kang, Sung‐Ho, additional, Kameda, Takahiko, additional, Katlein, Christian, additional, Lee, Sang H., additional, Lee, Zhongping, additional, Mélin, Frédéric, additional, Scardi, Michele, additional, Smyth, Tim J., additional, Tang, Shilin, additional, Turpie, Kevin R., additional, Waters, Kirk J., additional, and Westberry, Toby K., additional

Published
2015
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48. Diversity in thermal affinity among key piscivores buffers impacts of ocean warming on predator-prey interactions.

Author

Selden, Rebecca L., Batt, Ryan D., Saba, Vincent S., and Pinsky, Malin L.

Subjects
GLOBAL warming, SPECIES, PREDATORY animals, ECOSYSTEMS, CLIMATE change
Abstract

Asymmetries in responses to climate change have the potential to alter important predator-prey interactions, in part by altering the location and size of spatial refugia for prey. We evaluated the effect of ocean warming on interactions between four important piscivores and four of their prey in the U.S. Northeast Shelf by examining species overlap under historical conditions (1968-2014) and with a doubling in CO2. Because both predator and prey shift their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, the net impact of warming or cooling on predator-prey interactions was not determined a priori from the range extent of either predator or prey alone. For Atlantic cod, an historically dominant piscivore in the region, we found that both historical and future warming led to a decline in the proportion of prey species' range it occupied and caused a potential reduction in its ability to exert top-down control on these prey. In contrast, the potential for overlap of spiny dogfish with prey species was enhanced by warming, expanding their importance as predators in this system. In sum, the decline in the ecological role for cod that began with overfishing in this ecosystem will likely be exacerbated by warming, but this loss may be counteracted by the rise in dominance of other piscivores with contrasting thermal preferences. Functional diversity in thermal affinity within the piscivore guild may therefore buffer against the impact of warming on marine ecosystems, suggesting a novel mechanism by which diversity confers resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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49. Challenges of modeling depth-integrated marine primary productivity over multiple decades : a case study at BATS and HOT

Author

Saba, Vincent S., Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M., Carr, Mary-Elena, Antoine, David, Armstrong, Robert A., Asanuma, Ichio, Aumont, Olivier, Bates, Nicholas R., Behrenfeld, Michael J., Bennington, Val, Bopp, Laurent, Bruggeman, Jorn, Buitenhuis, Erik T., Church, Matthew J., Ciotti, Aurea M., Doney, Scott C., Dowell, Mark, Dunne, John P., Dutkiewicz, Stephanie, Gregg, Watson, Hoepffner, Nicolas, Hyde, Kimberly J. W., Ishizaka, Joji, Kameda, Takahiko, Karl, David M., Lima, Ivan, Lomas, Michael W., Marra, John, Mckinley, Galen A., Melin, Frédéric, Moore, J. Keith, Morel, André, O'Reilly, John, Salihoglu, Baris, Scardi, Michele, Smyth, Tim J., Tang, Shilin L., Tjiputra, Jerry, Uitz, Julia, Vichi, Marcello, Waters, Kirk, Westberry, Toby K., Yool, Andrew, Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche (LOV), Observatoire océanologique de Villefranche-sur-mer (OOVM), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de physique des océans (LPO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California-University of California, National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), and University of California (UC)-University of California (UC)

Subjects
Settore BIO/07, interannual variability, time-series, sargasso sea, oceanographic conditions, generalized-model, multidecadal climate forcing, ocean primary production, satellite chlorophyll, marine primary productivity models, BATS HOT trends, skill assessment, north pacific-ocean, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, 10.1029/2009GB003655, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, atlantic subtropical gyre
Abstract

The performance of 36 models (22 ocean color models and 14 biogeochemical ocean circulation models (BOGCMs)) that estimate depth-integrated marine net primary productivity (NPP) was assessed by comparing their output to in situ 14C data at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Study (BATS) and the Hawaii Ocean Time series (HOT) over nearly two decades. Specifically, skill was assessed based on the models' ability to estimate the observed mean, variability, and trends of NPP. At both sites, more than 90% of the models underestimated mean NPP, with the average bias of the BOGCMs being nearly twice that of the ocean color models. However, the difference in overall skill between the best BOGCM and the best ocean color model at each site was not significant. Between 1989 and 2007, in situ NPP at BATS and HOT increased by an average of nearly 2% per year and was positively correlated to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index. The majority of ocean color models produced in situ NPP trends that were closer to the observed trends when chlorophyll-a was derived from high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), rather than fluorometric or SeaWiFS data. However, this was a function of time such that average trend magnitude was more accurately estimated over longer time periods. Among BOGCMs, only two individual models successfully produced an increasing NPP trend (one model at each site). We caution against the use of models to assess multiannual changes in NPP over short time periods. Ocean color model estimates of NPP trends could improve if more high quality HPLC chlorophyll-a time series were available. © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

Published
2010

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