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A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960–2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land–atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.

[Departement_IRSTEA]Eaux [TR1_IRSTEA]ARCEAU [ADD1_IRSTEA]Hydrosystèmes et risques naturels; International audience; Spatial verification methods able to handle high-resolution ensemble forecasts and analysis ensembles are increasingly required because of the increasing development of such ensembles. An ensemble extension of the spatial verification method SAL (Structure Amplitude Location) is proposed here. The ensemble SAL (eSAL) allows for verifying ensemble forecasts against a deterministic or ensemble analysis. The eSAL components are equal to those of SAL in the deterministic case, thus allowing the comparison of deterministic and ensemble forecasts. The Mesoscale Verification Intercomparison over Complex Terrain (MesoVICT) project provides a dataset containing deterministic and ensemble precipitation forecasts as well as a deterministic and ensemble analysis for case studies in Summer 2007 over the greater Alpine region. These data sets allow testing the sensitivity of SAL and eSAL to analysis uncertainty and their suitability for the verification of ensemble forecasts. Their sensitivity with respect to the main parameter of this feature-based method – the threshold for defining precipitation features – is furthermore tested for both the deterministic and ensemble forecasts. Our results stress the importance of using meaningful thresholds in order to limit any unstable behavior of the threshold-dependent SAL components. The eSAL components are typically close to the median of the distribution of deterministic SAL components calculated for all combinations of ensemble members of the forecast and the analysis, with considerably less computational time. The eSAL ensemble extension of SAL can be considered as a relevant summary measure that leads to more easily interpretable SAL diagrams.

International audience; Analyses of extreme weather events and their impacts often requires big data processing of ensembles of climate model simulations. Researchers generally proceed by downloading the data from the providers and processing the data files " at home " with their own analysis processes. However, the growing amount of available climate model and observation data makes this procedure quite awkward. In addition, data processing knowledge is kept local, instead of being consolidated into a common resource of reusable code. These drawbacks can be mitigated by using a web processing service (WPS). A WPS hosts services such as data analysis processes that are accessible over the web, and can be installed close to the data archives. We developed a WPS named 'flyingpigeon' that communicates over an HTTP network protocol based on standards defined by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) [23], to be used by climatologists and impact modelers as a tool for analyzing large datasets remotely. Here, we present the current processes we developed in flyingpigeon relating to commonly-used processes (preprocessing steps, spatial subsets at continent, country or region level, and climate indices) as well as methods for specific climate data analysis (weather regimes, analogues of circulation, segetal flora distribution, and species distribution models). We also developed a novel, browser-based interactive data visualization for circulation analogues , illustrating the flexibility of WPS in designing custom outputs. Bringing the software to the data instead of transferring the data to the code is becoming increasingly necessary, especially with the upcoming massive climate datasets.

International audience; Capsule December 2015 in France was an extreme of circulation and temperature. Both circulation and climate change partly explain the 4°C anomaly. We found no link between climate change and circulation. The event The December 2015 average temperature broke a record in France, with an anomaly of +4.1°C (Fig. 1a) with respect to the 1949-2015 climatology. The linear trend of average December temperature (in red in Fig. 1a) is not significant (p-value > 0.05), as regional temperature variability is high in winter. Such a positive temperature anomaly has impacts on the vegetation cycle (the French press covered this topic in the daily newspaper Le Monde 1). It also affects local economies, e.g. tourism in ski resorts. The temperature anomaly was concomitant with a zonal atmospheric circulation over Western Europe (Fig. 1b), directing mild subtropical air masses towards France. We found that the mean monthly SLP (sea level pressure) anomaly over the black box of Fig.1b is also a record high for the NCEP reanalysis. Such a circulation type generally leads to warm temperatures overs France (Yiou and Nogaj, 2004). In this paper we seek to address three questions: How much does the circulation anomaly explain the temperature anomaly during December 2015 in France? What is the influence of climate change on the occurrence of the circulation anomaly? How does the distribution of temperature conditional to the atmospheric circulation evolve with climate change?

International audience; Relationships between local precipitation (predictands) and large-scale circulation (predictors) are used for statistical downscaling purposes in various contexts, from medium-term forecasting to climate change impact studies. For hydrological purposes like flood forecasting, the downscaled precipitation spatial fields have furthermore to be coherent over possibly large basins. This thus first requires to know what predictor domain can be associated to the precipitation over each part of the studied basin. This study addresses this issue by identifying the optimum predictor domains over the whole of France, for a specific downscaling method based on a analogue approach and developed by Ben Daoud et al. (2011). The downscaling method used here is based on analogies on different variables: temperature, relative humidity, vertical velocity and geopotentials. The optimum predictor domain has been found to consist of the nearest grid cell for all variables except geopotentials (Ben Daoud et al., 2011). Moreover, geopotential domains have been found to be sensitive to the target location by Obled et al. (2002), and the present study thus focuses on optimizing the domains of this specific predictor over France. The predictor domains for geopotential at 500 hPa and 1000 hPa are optimised for 608 climatologically homogeneous zones in France using the ERA-40 reanalysis data for the large-scale predictors and local precipitation from the Safran near-surface atmospheric reanalysis (Vidal et al., 2010). The similarity of geopotential fields is measured by the Teweles andWobus shape criterion. The predictive skill of different predictor domains for the different regions is tested with the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) for the 25 best analogue days found with the statistical downscaling method. Rectangular predictor domains of different sizes, shapes and locations are tested, and the one that leads to the smallest CRPS for the zone in question is retained. The resulting optimised domains are analysed for defining regions where neighbouring zones have equal or similar predictor domains and identifying which French river basins contain zones associated with different predictor domains, i.e. are exposed to different meteorological influences. The above analysis will be used (1) to extend the statistical downscaling method of Ben Daoud et al. (2011) to the whole of France and (2) to develop it further in order to achieve spatially coherent forecasts while preserving the predictive skill on the local scale.

Technological and scientific developments in nowcasting over the last 10 years have opened up new opportunities in public safety, risk management, environ-mental protection, and the cost effectiveness of services provided by the public and private sector. Since weather phenomena do not “stop at national state bor-ders”, the development of a truly integrated nowcasting system (one that includes the whole chain from modeling to protective action) is best achieved through transnational collaboration. Until now, no such cooperation existed in Europe and nowcasting systems were, at best, developed by single institutions. Furthermore, there was a lack of strong links between the development of nowcasting applica-tions and the specific needs of the application side.