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6. Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective

Author

Peterson, T. C., Alexander, L. V., Allen, M. R., Añel, Juan A., Barriopedro, David, Black, M. T., Carey-Smith, T., Castillo, R., Cattiaux, J., Chen, X. L., Chen, X. Y., Chevallier, M., Christidis, N., Ciavarella, A., Vries, H. de, Dean, S. M., Deans, K., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Donat, M. G., Dong, B., Eilerts, G., Funk, C., Galu, G., García Herrera, Ricardo, Germe, A., Gill, S., Gimeno, Luis, Guemas, V., Herring, S. C., Hoell, A., Hoerling, M. P., Huntingford, C., Husak, G., Imada, Y., Ishii, M., Karoly, D. J., Kimoto, M., King, A. D., Knutson, T. R., Lewis, S. C., Lin, R. P., Lyon, Bradfield, Massey, N., Mazza, E., Michaelsen, J., Mori, M., Mote, P. W., Nieto, Raquel, Otto, F. E. L., Park, J., Perkins, S. E., Rosier, S., Rowland, J., Rupp, D. E., Salas y Melia, D., Scherer, M., Shiogama, H., Shukla, S., Song, F. F., Sparrow, S., Stott, Peter A., Sutton, R., Sweet, W., Tett, S. F. B., Trigo, Ricardo M., Oldenborgh, G. J. van, Westrhenen, R. van, Verdin, J., Watanabe, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Woollings, Tim, Yiou, P., Zeng, F. R., Zervas, C., Zhang, R., Zhou, T. J., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Potential impact, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate, 0207 environmental engineering, Física atmosférica, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Arctic ice pack, Sea surface temperature, Oceanography, 13. Climate action, Sea ice, Precipitation, Clima, 020701 environmental engineering, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Geology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that is currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper are 19 analyses by 18 different research groups, often using quite different methodologies, of 12 extreme events that occurred in 2012. In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of four of the events, the high temperatures in the United States, the record low levels of Arctic sea ice, and the heavy rain in northern Europe and eastern Australia, provide an opportunity to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies. The differences also provide insights into the structural uncertainty of event attribution, that is, the uncertainty that arises directly from the differences in analysis methodology. In these cases, there was considerable agreement between the different assessments of the same event. However, different events had very different causes. Approximately half the analyses found some evidence that anthropogenically caused climate change was a contributing factor to the extreme event examined, though the effects of natural fluctuations of weather and climate on the evolution of many of the extreme events played key roles as well.

Published
2013

8. Erratum to: Climate change under aggressive mitigation: The ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

Author

Johns, T.C., Royer, J.F., Hoeschel, I., Huebener, H., Roeckner, E., Manzini, E., May, W., Dufresne, J.L., Ottera, O.H., van Vuuren, D.P., Salas y Melia, D., Giorgetta, M.A., Denvil, S., Yang, S., Fogli, P.G., Koerper, J., Tjiputra, J.F., Stehfest, E., Hewitt, C.D., Environmental Sciences, and Section Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Taverne
Published
2011

9. Supplementary material to "Development and evaluation of CNRM Earth-System model – CNRM-ESM1"

Author

Séférian, R., primary, Delire, C., additional, Decharme, B., additional, Voldoire, A., additional, Salas y Melia, D., additional, Chevallier, M., additional, Saint-Martin, D., additional, Aumont, O., additional, Calvet, J.-C., additional, Carrer, D., additional, Douville, H., additional, Franchistéguy, L., additional, Joetzjer, E., additional, and Sénési, S., additional

Published
2015
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10. Development and evaluation of CNRM Earth-System model – CNRM-ESM1

Author

Séférian, R., primary, Delire, C., additional, Decharme, B., additional, Voldoire, A., additional, Salas y Melia, D., additional, Chevallier, M., additional, Saint-Martin, D., additional, Aumont, O., additional, Calvet, J.-C., additional, Carrer, D., additional, Douville, H., additional, Franchistéguy, L., additional, Joetzjer, E., additional, and Sénési, S., additional

Published
2015
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11. An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions

Author

Bellucci, A., primary, Haarsma, R., additional, Gualdi, S., additional, Athanasiadis, P. J., additional, Caian, M., additional, Cassou, C., additional, Fernandez, E., additional, Germe, A., additional, Jungclaus, J., additional, Kröger, J., additional, Matei, D., additional, Müller, W., additional, Pohlmann, H., additional, Salas y Melia, D., additional, Sanchez, E., additional, Smith, D., additional, Terray, L., additional, Wyser, K., additional, and Yang, S., additional

Published
2014
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12. Modeling the present and future impact of aviation on climate: an AOGCM approach with online coupled chemistry

Author

Huszar, P., primary, Teyssèdre, H., additional, Michou, M., additional, Voldoire, A., additional, Olivié, D. J. L., additional, Saint-Martin, D., additional, Cariolle, D., additional, Senesi, S., additional, Salas Y Melia, D., additional, Alias, A., additional, Karcher, F., additional, Ricaud, P., additional, and Halenka, T., additional

Published
2013
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14. Development and evaluation of CNRM Earth-System model - CNRM-ESM1.

Author

Séférian, R., Delire, C., Decharme, B., Voldoire, A., Salas y Melia, D., Chevallier, M., Saint-Martin, D., Aumont, O., Calvet, J.-C., Carrer, D., Douville, H., Franchistéguy, L., Joetzjer, E., and Sénési, S.

Subjects
ATMOSPHERIC models, CARBON cycle, CLIMATE change models, EARTH system science, MODELS & modelmaking, CLIMATOLOGY
Abstract

We introduce and document the first version of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Earth system model (CNRM-ESM1). This model is based on the physical core of the CNRM-CM5 model and employs the Interactions between Soil, Bio-sphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) module and the Pelagic Interaction Scheme for Carbon and Ecosystem Studies (PISCES) as terrestrial and oceanic components of the global carbon cycle. We describe a preindustrial and 20th century climate simulation following the CMIP5 protocol. We detail how the various carbon reservoirs were initialized and analyze the behavior of the carbon cycle and its prominent physical drivers. CNRM-ESM1 reproduces satisfactorily several aspects of the modern carbon cycle. On land, the model reasonably captures the carbon cycling through vegetation and soil, resulting in a net terrestrial carbon sink of 2.2 PgCy-1. In the ocean, the large-scale distribution of hydrodynamical and biogeochemical tracers agrees well with a modern climatology from the World Ocean Atlas. The combination of biological and physical processes induces a net CO2 uptake of 1.7 PgCy-1 that falls within the range of recent estimates. Our analysis shows that the atmospheric climate of CNRM-ESM1 compares well with that of CNRM-CM5. Biases in precipitation and shortwave radiation over the Tropics generate errors in gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration. Compared to CNRM-CM5, the revised ocean-sea ice coupling has modified the sea-ice cover and ocean ventilation, unrealistically strengthening the flow of North Atlantic deep water (26.1±2 Sv). It results in an accumulation of anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2015
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15. The effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes

Author

Körper, J., primary, Höschel, I., additional, Lowe, J. A., additional, Hewitt, C. D., additional, Salas y Melia, D., additional, Roeckner, E., additional, Huebener, H., additional, Royer, J.-F., additional, Dufresne, J.-L., additional, Pardaens, A., additional, Giorgetta, M. A., additional, Sanderson, M. G., additional, Otterå, O. H., additional, Tjiputra, J., additional, and Denvil, S., additional

Published
2012
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19. An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions.

Author

Bellucci, A., Haarsma, R., Gualdi, S., Athanasiadis, P., Caian, M., Cassou, C., Fernandez, E., Germe, A., Jungclaus, J., Kröger, J., Matei, D., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Salas y Melia, D., Sanchez, E., Smith, D., Terray, L., Wyser, K., and Yang, S.

Subjects
CLIMATE change, WEATHER forecasting, PREDICTION theory, PERTURBATION theory, COMPARATIVE studies, SURFACE temperature
Abstract

A multi-model ensemble of decadal prediction experiments, performed in the framework of the EU-funded COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) Project following the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project protocol is examined. The ensemble combines a variety of dynamical models, initialization and perturbation strategies, as well as data assimilation products employed to constrain the initial state of the system. Taking advantage of the multi-model approach, several aspects of decadal climate predictions are assessed, including predictive skill, impact of the initialization strategy and the level of uncertainty characterizing the predicted fluctuations of key climate variables. The present analysis adds to the growing evidence that the current generation of climate models adequately initialized have significant skill in predicting years ahead not only the anthropogenic warming but also part of the internal variability of the climate system. An important finding is that the multi-model ensemble mean does generally outperform the individual forecasts, a well-documented result for seasonal forecasting, supporting the need to extend the multi-model framework to real-time decadal predictions in order to maximize the predictive capabilities of currently available decadal forecast systems. The multi-model perspective did also allow a more robust assessment of the impact of the initialization strategy on the quality of decadal predictions, providing hints of an improved forecast skill under full-value (with respect to anomaly) initialization in the near-term range, over the Indo-Pacific equatorial region. Finally, the consistency across the different model predictions was assessed. Specifically, different systems reveal a general agreement in predicting the near-term evolution of surface temperatures, displaying positive correlations between different decadal hindcasts over most of the global domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2015
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20. Simulation du climat récent et futur par les modèles du CNRM et de l'IPSL

Author

DUFRESNE, Jean-Louis, primary, SALAS Y MELIA, D., additional, Denvil, S., additional, TYTECA, S., additional, ARZEL, O., additional, BONY, S., additional, BRACONNOT, P., additional, Brockmann, P., additional, CADULE, P., additional, Caubel, A., additional, CHAUVIN, F., additional, DEQUE, M., additional, DOUVILLE, H., additional, FAIRHEAD, L., additional, FICHEFET, T., additional, Foujols, M.-A., additional, GRANDPEIX, J.-Y., additional, GUEREMY, J.-F., additional, HOURDIN, F., additional, IDELKADI, A., additional, KRINNER, G., additional, LEVY, C., additional, MADEC, G., additional, MARQUET, P., additional, MARTI, O., additional, MUSAT, I., additional, PLANTON, S., additional, ROYER, J-F., additional, SWINGEDOUW, D., additional, VOLDOIRE, A., additional, and FRIEDLINGSTEIN, P., additional

Published
2006
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