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Significant amounts of feedstock metals will be required to build the infrastructure for the green energy transition. It is currently estimated, however, that the world may be facing an "infrastructure gap" that could prevent us from meeting United Nations Sustainable Development Goal targets. Prior investigations have focused on the extractive aspects of the mining industry to meet these targets and on looming bottlenecks and regional challenges in these upstream market segments. Scant attention has been paid to the downstream processing segments of the raw materials value chain, which also has a high degree of market concentration. Growing international tensions and geopolitical events have resulted in a shift toward "reshoring" and "near-shoring" of mining processing capabilities as regional powers attempt to make metal supply chains more secure. While increasing resilience, these shifts can also dilute the overall effectiveness of the global mining supply network and subsequently hamper the world's ability to close the green energy infrastructure gap. We argue that broadening the remit of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to include coordinating these mission-critical metal processing functions can mitigate these issues. The G20 is one potential forum for enabling an integrated mineral processing agreement under the auspices of IRENA.

Research conducted over the last four decades emphasizes the growing importance of Afghanistan's mineral resources as a potential driver for economic growth. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates this fortune could be worth as much as $900 billion USD in key metals and materials essential for the energy transition. However, a protracted civil war, corruption, absent or deficient infrastructure and extreme water stress prevent the extractive sector from becoming a key pillar of the Afghan economy. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of Afghanistan's mineral fortune and the prospects and obstacles of mining post-US withdrawal under Taliban rule. Five core components are provided in this analysis. First, a historical overview of Afghanistan's mineral resource development will be presented. Tapping into Afghanistan's mineral fortune requires a deep understanding of the Afghan people, and countries should not view investment through only a political risk lens, but rather take a holistic approach that incorporates environmental and social governance by giving a fair portion of the mineral wealth to the Afghan people. Second, a brief overview of the key mineral deposits and research conducted into Afghanistan's reserves will be provided. This paper builds on previous research identifying six specific provinces and deposits with the highest mineral production potential (MPP) from the original 24 areas of interest (AOIs) provided by USGS. Third, the authors emphasize the importance of water for the future of Afghanistan's mining sector and the nexus with water (in)security dynamics that will impact the stability of the country if overlooked. Overlaying various Geographic Information Systems (GIS) maps (watersheds, food insecurity, water stress, geohazards and water depletion) helps identifying which of the six provinces with highest mineral production potential has the highest risk of water (in)security threats from mining. Fourth, we provide a review of the current security and mining landscape under the Taliban regime, and the challenges and opportunities for investment in the country. China's growing interest in Afghanistan and warming relations with the Taliban beg the question what role Beijing will play, if any, as the next intervening power in Afghanistan's history. Finally, this chapter concludes with some general policy recommendations for moving forward in the context of a post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Investment in Afghan mining is an investment in the Afghan people.

Connections between resources and migration operate as a complex adaptive system rather than being premised in linear, causal mechanisms. The systems thinking advocated within this Element increases the inclusion of socio-psychological, financial, demographic, environmental and political dimensions that mediate resource-(im)mobility pathways. The Earth Systems Governance paradigm provides a way to manage global migration flows more effectively, allowing for consideration of networks and interdependencies in addition to its inherent adaptiveness. Resource rushes, hydropower displacement, and climate-induced retreat from coastal areas are all examples of circumstances linking resources and human mobility. Movement can also ameliorate environmental conditions and hence close monitoring of impacts and policies which harness benefits of migration is advocated. Green remittance bonds, and land tenure policies favoring better arable resource usage are key ingredients of a more systems-oriented approach to managing mobility. The Global Compact on Migration offers an opportunity to operationalize such adaptive governance approaches in the Anthropocene.

This first chapter in this section on political order starts off with a discussion of Francis Fukuyama’s work on how nation states organize themselves. The role of democratic institutions in developing functional order is considered through a deep-dive comparison of India and China. The role of special interest groups in potentially subverting democratic order is considered within electoral cycles and economic theory going back to the work of Mancur Olson. Next, the concept of “resource nationalism” is discussed using the J curve concept developed by Ian Bremmer. Economic assemblages of countries such as the G20, as well as political and regional assemblages of political order, provide a backdrop for a final discussion of global indices such as the World Happiness Index, which attempt to link political order to social indicators.

Starting from a discussion of the development of matrimonial order in human societies, this chapter considers procreation and population growth in the context of sustainability. The despicable history of social Darwinism in imposing particular forms of genetic order for the ostensible “greater good” is discussed, as well as the stark Neo-Malthusian exhortations of Lifeboat Ethics from Garrett Hardin. Demographic concepts that have led to broader development planning debates on the stabilization of global populations are considered in the context of anti-aging research. The chapter concludes with a discussion of gender as a key form of contested social order and how some of the insights from D’Arcy Thompson’s classic work On Growth and Form can inform a more nuanced discussions of social categories and stereotypes.

This chapter starts with a consideration of how social sciences fit within the complexity-uncertainty domain. Economic and social order is high in complexity and high in uncertainty, which necessitates a more deliberative process in its understanding. Urban systems offer a compelling microcosm by which to study and understand social and economic order and its relationship with natural systems. Going through various historical stages in environmental design and planning, this chapter moves on to consider the linkages between environmental degradation and income. Various forms of resource and environmental decoupling are also considered alongside the classic limits-to-growth models.

Synthesizing the key themes of the book, the Conclusion lays out our current juncture as a civilization in making decisions that may lead toward either a more fragmented or harmonious future order. Five key “take-home” messages from the book’s insights are presented with contemporary examples, including the 2020 US presidential election. Going back to the metaphor of the kaleidoscope with which this book opened, the author presents a coda for “chromatic order” that is partially reminiscent of the balance in society suggested by the ancient Greek polymath Vitruvius, one existing between beauty (venustas), usability (utilitas), and durability (firmitas).

Considering how human societies evolve, the process of learning from errors is a key attribute that deserves attention. The work of Claude Shannon in building the bridge between the study of entropy in physics to information theory is a key way to consider how learning from such errors can be harnessed in human and artificial systems. Scott Page’s notion of “collective intelligence” and its linkage to a shared economy may be a means of making systems more efficient. Next, the chapter considers how risk and uncertainty can be conflated in trying to maintain social order and how this can lead to errant “precautionary” approaches in environmental decision-making. Finally, the chapter considers how social systems might gain from disorder when considering “anti-fragile” structures, and it concludes with a discussion of logic and cause in social systems.

Natural systems on Earth operate in cycles as a way of maintaining a steady state of functionality. Modern environmentalism has developed with a desire for human activities to emulate such circularity. Going back to Barry Commoner’s classic work The Closing Circle and his four laws of ecology, this chapter considers the development of the Biosphere concept. The centrality of hydrological order in such life-giving systems is then considered with a history of how water cycles were initially misunderstood and how systems thinking eventually led to more complex integrated work on biogeochemical cycles. Finally, the chapter considers Gaia theory and its critics (including the Medea hypothesis) with an eye toward the heuristic value of fanciful theories. The emerging concepts of planetary boundaries and “donut economics” are discussed as a transition is made to connecting natural systems to social order in the next section of the book.

This chapter considers the role of institutions that are aimed at planetary problem-solving and yet are still bound by a highly restrictive nation-based order. Decisions on international standards such as the international dateline are still dependent on individual states deciding in which time zone they fall. Some of the most acrimonious conflicts in the world cannot be resolved by these international institutions. The case example of the Arab–Israeli conflict is considered in the context of ecological order and the various proposals from powers such as the United States, but also in the light of novel grassroots ideas for redefining political order, such as a Confederation. The chapter concludes with a discussion of “earth systems governance” through the highlighting of networks and feedback loops.

Humans have an ambivalent relationship with order. We are fascinated by structure and patterns but also resist being ordered to limit our behavior. This long introduction to Earthly Order lays out the key motivations for writing this book. The author’s childhood fascination with kaleidoscopes and how they can create ordered patterns from random pieces of glass led him to consider the importance of structures in nature. However, he soon learned that patterns are not inherently valuable, and we must consider their functionality first rather than becoming subservient to their design. Encounters with eminent scientists such as Stephen Jay Gould and Benoit Mandelbrot paved the way for this book’s attempt to harmonize understanding of earth systems across a range of disciplines. The ultimate goal of such harmonization is to have a more productive approach to charting a sustainable development path for humans on the planet. While conventional approaches to sustainability showed three equally overlapping circles of social, environmental, and economic imperatives, this book argues for a nested system in which social and economic order are inherently nested in ecological order. The zone of overlap between social and economic order constitutes political order.

Starting with the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, this chapter lays out how natural forms such as viruses acquire structure. What are the mechanisms by which ordered natural systems arise from chaotic assemblages? This chapter considers the quest for understanding the fundamental forces of nature by presenting the most current debates in the context of functional understandings of natural order. Material phases and crystals are considered alongside geometric anomalies such as quasicrystals. The four types of constants relayed by Einstein and their role in defining the laws of nature are presented in the context of cosmic ratios and other established norms of physics. The chapter concludes with a recognition that many of the patterns observed in nature do not necessarily have any particular value or purpose. “Beauty” is not always a normatively useful or positive attribute in natural systems, as our initial instincts may lead us to believe.

Going through the fundamentals of economic theory, this chapter moves on to a discussion of the Five Capitals Framework and its implications for applying value to ecosystems. The ideas of “weak” and “strong” sustainability are developed with examples from the natural resource and service sectors. Thomas Schelling’s seminal work in understanding the disconnect between economic and natural equilibrium, as well as Herbert Simon’s foundational contributions to studies of “bounded rationality,” are considered in detail. The chapter concludes with a discussion of how markets function under conditions of incomplete information and the need for human interventions in such cases to maintain functional order in sync with natural systems.

Starting from the periodic table, this chapter lays out how humans have tried to order our understanding of the elements. There are many ways to categorize and label the elements depending on what factors we want to prioritize. The centrality of carbon as the life-giving molecule is considered on the basis of its particular proclivity for constructing large, ordered molecules. This also leads to a unique set of physical properties for some of its forms, such as graphene. Next, the chapter grapples with nuclear order and its importance in providing such high-energy density for human use. However, social order has been reluctant to accept the power of the atom as a source of “green energy”—often nonscientific reasons. Magnetic order in all its various forms is then presented as a way of linking physics to geology and human ability to navigate the planet.

The authors have requested that this preprint be removed from Research Square.

How does natural order in the universe connect to social and political order on Earth? Pragmatically, answering such a fundamental question is key for society to confront global environmental and economic challenges. Earthly Order tackles this grand question of human inquiry for a broad audience through coverage of foundational knowledge for scientific literacy of the general public. The book argues that the complexity of current planetary processes requires us to embrace a hybrid form of order in which natural emergence from chaos and human technological innovations are intertwined. As a systems scientist and geographer, the author brings together his personal journey of intellectual growth from his childhood years in Pakistan to his studies in the natural sciences and environmental planning in the United States to weave a rich tapestry of learning that informs the parameters of global sustainability conversations. While resisting the temptation of environmental determinism, the narrative sets forth natural constraints and hierarchies under which trajectories of social, economic, and political systems must be charted to maintain an “earthly order” wherein humanity can thrive.

The climate change impacts of mining are often not fully accounted for, although the environmental impact of mineral extraction more generally is widely studied. Copper mining can serve as a case study to analyse the measurable pathways by which mining contributes to climate change through direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions. For example, mining, processing and transportation require fuel and electricity, and the decomposition of carbonate minerals, employed to reduce environmental impacts, also releases carbon dioxide. Overall, we estimate that greenhouse gas emissions associated with primary mineral and metal production was equivalent to approximately 10% of the total global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in 2018. For copper mining, fuel consumption increased by 130% and electricity consumption increased by 32% per unit of mined copper in Chile from 2001 to 2017, largely due to decreasing ore grade. This trend of increasing energy demand to produce the same quantity of some metals compounds the problems of increased metal demand due to the pressures of new technologies and increasing population. For green technologies to be implemented effectively, it is necessary that the mining industry and regulators accurately and transparently account for greenhouse gas emissions to implement mitigation strategies. Direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions from mining for green technologies need to be accurately and transparently accounted for, as highlighted by a case study of Chilean copper mining.

Many major rivers discharge into the Black Sea and bring major nutrient pollution, leading to rapid plant growth and eutrophication impacts in the ecosystem. Yet, the Black Sea cannot replace the lost oxygen during this process due to its natural conditions, such as low salinity, low density, very limited connection to larger seas and oceans, and low vertical and horizontal circulation. This resulted in about 90% of the sea to have anaerobic conditions and caused serious consequences on almost every aspect of life for basin countries. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the riparian countries that recharge the sea began cooperating to address the pollution problem despite numerous international conflicts they had had with each other. Some progress has been made so far, but tense diplomatic relations persist. Little improvement of international relations has taken place in the region due to environmental cooperation. This study seeks, based on a range of interviews with stakeholders and archival research, to understand how this environmental cooperation initiated and survived despite the diplomatic impasse. Moreover, it seeks ways to improve the effectiveness of the cooperation and translate this cooperation to improvement of the international relations among the riparians. As part of the solution, this study suggests giving more authority to the local level institutions handling day-to-day management of the Black Sea. This research is of special interest for government workers employed at units that handle international water management, policymakers focusing on environmental policies, and members of academia conducting relevant research.

A science writer’s ode to patterns packs a visual punch.

Gemstone value is often associated with origin, as the color, clarity, carat weight, cut, and other attributes of interest to consumers are often associated with the geological location of the stone. In this paper, we consider how the provenance of gemstones is harnessed through the ‘4P’ framework of product, price, promotion, and place. Both tanzanite and Zultanite/Csarite are currently each mined commercially in only one location in the world. Tanzanite is mined in Mererani, near Arusha, Tanzania, and Zultanite/Csarite is mined in Milas, near Mugla, Turkey. While this rarity and other attributes were successfully leveraged so that tanzanite attained global recognition, Zultanite/Csarite has remained largely unknown. Our study examines the potential reasons why tanzanite and Zultanite/Csarite have experienced such different degrees of success on the global gemstone market. Our main findings suggest that rarity and single-origin are not adequate determinants of value, and that consumer preferences for color need to be carefully marketed with a powerful storyline and linked to unique aspects of their place of origin, such as tourism and local culture.

Due to historical grievances, Armenia and Turkey experience severe international conflicts and do not maintain diplomatic ties. Yet, as a vestige of the Soviet period, when Armenia was not an independent country, both nations share the Arpacay/Akhuryan Dam, and riparian cooperation exists at the local level. We observed that local cross-border water institutions are authorized to manage the dam and do so via polycentric management principles. We suggest that such a devolved model of governance facilitates this unique cooperation. Furthermore, there is a positive relationship between private management of water resources in such areas and the ability to sustain cooperation. However, so far, the positive impacts of this cooperation on improving international relations have been little, if any. We suggest that what makes cooperation possible in this context also inhibits its expansion to broader peacebuilding. We also suggest that increased localization of management, coincident with improved relations, maximizes cooperation potential.

World Heritage sites provide a key mechanism for protecting areas of universal importance. However, fifty-four UNESCO sites are currently listed as “In Danger”, with 40% of these located in the Middle East. Since 2010 alone, thirty new sites were identified as under risk globally. We combined big-data and remote sensing to examine whether they can effectively be used to identify danger to World Heritage in near real-time. We found that armed-conflicts substantially threaten both natural- and cultural-heritage listed sites. Other major risks include poor management and development (globally), poaching (Africa mostly) and deforestation (tropics), yet conflict is the most prominent threat. We show that news-mining of big-data on conflicts and remote sensing of nights-lights enabled us to identify conflict afflicted areas in near real-time. These findings provide a crucial avenue for developing a global transparent early-warning system before irreversible damage to world heritage takes place.

This paper critically examines the social dynamics of emerald mining in the Swat Valley and its impact on the broader gemstone processing sector in Pakistan. In particular, it pays attention to problematizing the existing structure of artisanal, small-scale emerald mining, and its fragmented supply chain that grapples with a branding stigma of gem origin. It also considers an export-led beneficiation industry within Swat to generate sustainable livelihoods and help prevent future conflicts through fostering economic resilience. The paper emerges with inferences that while the literature on colored gemstones is increasingly critical of fragmented supply chains, it should also consider the role that gemstones can play, as a constitutive and representational force, toward (re)production and (re)engineering of the “tainted” image of post-conflict locations. This is particularly the case because gemstone origin is a major factor in value determination. Areas of conflict that have previously caused negative branding of gemstones can later be transformed into post-conflict development opportunities and lead to positive branding. Approaches for pursuing such a strategy are explored in the context of Pakistan’s emerald industry.

The ongoing agrarian transition from small-holder farming to large-scale commercial agriculture is reshaping systems of production and human well-being in many regions. A fundamental part of this global transition is manifested in large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) by agribusinesses. Its energy implications, however, remain poorly understood. Here, we assess the multi-dimensional changes in fossil-fuel-based energy demand resulting from this agrarian transition. We focus on LSLAs by comparing two scenarios of low-input and high-input agricultural practices, exemplifying systems of production in place before and after the agrarian transition. A shift to high-input crop production requires industrial fertilizer application, mechanization of farming practices and irrigation, which increases by ~5 times fossil-fuel-based energy consumption compared to low-input agriculture. Given the high energy and carbon footprints of LSLAs and concerns over local energy access, our analysis highlights the need for an approach that prioritizes local resource access and incorporates energy-intensity analyses in land use governance., Nature Communications, 12 (1), ISSN:2041-1723

Material flow has been accelerated from underground natural minerals and is accumulating as aboveground waste stock. China is not only the largest producer and consumer of material-driven products, but also the largest generator of product waste. No official annual product waste data are released for China, which creates challenges especially in light of China’s emerging waste management policies. Previous studies have presented only estimations of waste streams for single products. In this study, we considered three product types and 33 technological products and collected all the available data. A Kuznets curve and Bass diffusion model were employed to forecast their future consumption. Based on urban consumption metabolism, we created one systematic estimation model of product waste generation related to material flow and social regulation. Typical technological product waste outflows were estimated from 2010 to 2050, which can assist further material flow and environmental impact research, as well as waste management policy-making and technology development. The created model can be potentially extended to other types of product waste estimation., Measurement(s) waste generation • waste material Technology Type(s) digital curation • Mathematical Model Factor Type(s) year of data collection Sample Characteristic - Location China Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.13277732

The original version of this Article contained an error in the caption of Fig. 2, where the sentence ‘Yield-gap fractions close to zero show low-yielding croplands with high yield gaps.’ should have been deleted. This has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Non-technical summary Urban density is erroneously regarded as the main factor in the spread of COVID-19 in cities. A review of extant literature and findings from our case study of Karachi, Pakistan indicate that inequalities in income, healthcare, and living conditions play a key role in the spread of contagions along with government responsiveness to the pandemic. Moving forward, urban policies need to address these inequalities through changes in housing policies and decentralized governance systems. Cities must adapt to sustainable modes of travel, reduce digital inequalities, and encourage people friendly urban planning to become resilient in the face of pandemics. Technical summary COVID-19 has changed how urban residents relate to their cities. Urban centers have become epicenters of disease, which has raised questions about the long-term sustainability of high-density settlements and public transport usage. However, the spread of COVID-19 in cities is incorrectly attributed to urban density. Using the case study of Karachi, Pakistan, we find that inequality of income, healthcare, and living conditions is a major contributing factor to the spread of COVID-19. Data on positive COVID-19 cases, density, and socioeconomic status were obtained at the Union Council level from administrative districts of Karachi, Pakistan between March 2020, and July 2020. Despite low population densities, low-to-middle income neighborhoods in Karachi had a higher proportion of positive cases. Further, the experience of dense cities such as Hanoi in Vietnam and New York in the US differs regarding the spread of COVID-19. Hence, the government's response to the pandemic is also a major factor in containing the outbreak. Our findings suggest that a crisis in a city is exacerbated by its inability to take advantage of its density, inequality in the distribution of resources, lack of inclusiveness, and centralized governance mechanisms that make it difficult to respond quickly to situations. Thus, urban planning scholarship and practice should take an interdisciplinary approach to make cities equitable, inclusive, and adaptive. Social media summary Cities in the developing world have an opportunity for more resilient renewal in the post-COVID world.

Effectively connecting SDG 7 to the extractive industries will require a decisive step ahead beyond the classic affordability and dependable supply approach to energy security (Pascual & Elkind, 2009). The development imperative is “energy poverty” – particularly providing reliable electricity to much of the developing world which is still highly deficient in access (Aklin et al., 2018). Relieving the burden of energy poverty will require wide-ranging energy infrastructure which in many cases is dependent on metals for both generation and delivery. Furthermore, the extraction process itself for such metals for such infrastructure and for broader usage can also be made more energy efficient. This chapter presents both facets of this linkage between SDG 7 and the extractive industries. We also provide a deep-dive comparative of Europe and Asia-Pacific in the context of Agenda 2030, the Sustainable Development Goals and specifically SDG 7. The analysis is supported by energy data (Enerdata, 2018) to understand the global and regional tendencies; regional indicators proposed by the Sustainable Development Goals (specifically SDG 7) (UN, 2018); and the ambitious determination of Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015) to combat climate change. The quantity and quality of demand changes as exemplified by Asia and Europe respectively have important implications for how the extractive industries need to engage with both the developed and developing world in their SDG targets.