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ImportanceEstimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs.ObjectiveTo project the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the US through 2030.DesignAgent-based simulation modelSettingHIV clinics in the United States in the recent past (2020) and near future (2030)ParticipantsIn 2020, 674,531 PWH were using ART; 9% were men and 4% women with history of injection drug use; 60% were men who have sex with men (MSM); 8% were heterosexual men and 19% heterosexual women; 44% were non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black); 32% were non-Hispanic White (White); and 23% were Hispanic.Exposure(s)Demographic and HIV acquisition risk subgroupsMain Outcomes and MeasuresProjected prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV).ResultsWe projected 914,738 PWH using ART in the US in 2030. Multimorbidity increased from 58% in 2020 to 63% in 2030. The prevalence of depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension and dyslipidemia decreased, diabetes and CKD increased, MI increased steeply, but there was little change in cancer and ESLD. Among Black women with history of injection drug use (oldest demographic subgroup in 2030), CKD, anxiety, hypertension, and depression were most prevalent and 93% were multimorbid. Among Black MSM (youngest demographic subgroup in 2030), depression was highly prevalent, followed by hypertension and 48% were multimorbid. Comparatively, 67% of White MSM were multimorbid in 2030 (median age in 2030=59 years) and anxiety, depression, dyslipidemia, CKD, and hypertension were highly prevalent.Conclusion and relevanceThe distribution of multimorbidity will continue to differ by race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups, and be influenced by age and risk factor distributions that reflect the impact of social disparities of the health on women, people of color, and people who use drugs. HIV clinical care models and funding are urgently required to meet the healthcare needs of people with HIV in the next decade.KEY POINTSQuestionHow will the prevalence of multimorbidity change among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy in the US from 2020 to 2030?FindingsIn this agent-based simulation study using data from the NA-ACCORD and the CDC, multimorbidity (≥2 mental/physical comorbidities other than HIV) will increase from 58% in 2020 to 63% in 2030. The composition of comorbidities among multimorbid PWH vary by race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk group.MeaningHIV clinical programs and policy makers must act now to identify resources and care models to meet the increasingly complex medical needs of PWH over time, particularly mental healthcare needs.

From 2005 to 2018, among 32013 adults with human immunodeficiency virus entering care, median time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) prescription declined from 69 to 6 days, CD4 count at entry into care increased from 300 to 362 cells/μL, and CD4 count at ART prescription increased from 160 to 364 cells/μL.

Background Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) with persistently low CD4 counts despite efficacious antiretroviral therapy could have higher hospitalization risk. Methods In 6 US and Canadian clinical cohorts, PWH with virologic suppression for ≥1 year in 2005–2015 were followed until virologic failure, loss to follow-up, death, or study end. Stratified by early (years 2–5) and long-term (years 6–11) suppression and lowest presuppression CD4 count Results The 6997 included patients (19 980 person-years) were 81% cisgender men and 40% white. Among patients with lowest presuppression CD4 count 500 cells/μL had aIRRs of 1.44 during early suppression (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–2.06), and 1.67 (95% CI, 1.03–2.72) during long-term suppression. Among patients with lowest presuppression CD4 count ≥200 (56%), patients with current CD4 351–500 vs >500 cells/μL had an aIRR of 1.22 (95% CI, .93–1.60) during early suppression and 2.09 (95% CI, 1.18–3.70) during long-term suppression. Conclusions Virologically suppressed patients with lower CD4 counts experienced higher hospitalization rates and could potentially benefit from targeted clinical management strategies.

BackgroundResearch is needed to better understand relations between immunosuppression and HIV viraemia and risk for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, a common cancer in people living with HIV. We aimed to identify key CD4 count and HIV RNA (viral load) predictors of risk for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, overall and by subtype.MethodsWe studied people living with HIV during 1996-2014 from 21 Canadian and US cohorts participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. To determine key independent predictors of risk for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, we assessed associations with time-updated recent, past, cumulative, and nadir or peak measures of CD4 count and viral load, using demographics-adjusted, cohort-stratified Cox models, and we compared models using Akaike's information criterion.FindingsOf 102 131 people living with HIV during the study period, 712 people developed non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The key independent predictors of risk for overall non-Hodgkin lymphoma were recent CD4 count (ie, lagged by 6 months