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Cognitively impaired and spared patient subgroups were identified in psychosis and depression, and in clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR). Studies suggest differences in underlying brain structural and functional characteristics. It is unclear whether cognitive subgroups are transdiagnostic phenomena in early stages of psychotic and affective disorder which can be validated on the neural level. Patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP; N = 140; female = 54), recent-onset depression (ROD; N = 130; female = 73), CHR (N = 128; female = 61) and healthy controls (HC; N = 270; female = 165) were recruited through the multi-site study PRONIA. The transdiagnostic sample and individual study groups were clustered into subgroups based on their performance in eight cognitive domains and characterized by gray matter volume (sMRI) and resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) using support vector machine (SVM) classification. We identified an impaired subgroup (NROP = 79, NROD = 30, NCHR = 37) showing cognitive impairment in executive functioning, working memory, processing speed and verbal learning (all p < 0.001). A spared subgroup (NROP = 61, NROD = 100, NCHR = 91) performed comparable to HC. Single-disease subgroups indicated that cognitive impairment is stronger pronounced in impaired ROP compared to impaired ROD and CHR. Subgroups in ROP and ROD showed specific symptom- and functioning-patterns. rsFC showed superior accuracy compared to sMRI in differentiating transdiagnostic subgroups from HC (BACimpaired = 58.5%; BACspared = 61.7%, both: p < 0.01). Cognitive findings were validated in the PRONIA replication sample (N = 409). Individual cognitive subgroups in ROP, ROD and CHR are more informative than transdiagnostic subgroups as they map onto individual cognitive impairment and specific functioning- and symptom-patterns which show limited overlap in sMRI and rsFC.

Clinical and neuroimaging data has been increasingly used in recent years to disentangle heterogeneity of treatment response to cognitive training (CT) and predict which individuals may achieve the highest benefits. CT has small to medium effects on improving cognitive and social functioning in recent onset psychosis (ROP) patients, who show the most profound cognitive and social functioning deficits among psychiatric patients. We employed multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) to investigate the potential of cognitive data to predict social functioning improvement in response to 10 h of CT in patients with ROP. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier was trained on the naturalistic data of the Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) study sample to predict functioning in an independent sample of 70 ROP patients using baseline cognitive data. PRONIA is a part of a FP7 EU grant program that involved 7 sites across 5 European countries, designed and conducted with the main aim of identifying (bio)markers associated with an enhanced risk of developing psychosis in order to improve early detection and prognosis. Social functioning was predicted with a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 66.4% (Sensitivity 78.8%; Specificity 54.1%; PPV 60.5%; NPV 74.1%; AUC 0.64; P = 0.01). The most frequently selected cognitive features (mean feature weights > ± 0.2) included the (1) correct number of symbol matchings within the Digit Symbol Substitution Test, (2) the number of distracting stimuli leading to an error within 300 and 200 trials in the Continuous Performance Test and (3) the dynamics of verbal fluency between 15 and 30 s within the Verbal Fluency Test, phonetic part. Next, the SVM classifier generated on the PRONIA sample was applied to the intervention sample, that obtained 54 ROP patients who were randomly assigned to a social cognitive training (SCT) or treatment as usual (TAU) group and dichotomized into good (GF-S ≥ 7) and poor (GF-S < 7) function

BACKGROUND: Chronic low-grade inflammation is observed across mental disorders and is associated with difficult-to-treat-symptoms of anhedonia and functional brain changes, reflecting a potential transdiagnostic dimension. Previous investigations have focused on distinct illness categories in people with enduring illness, but few have explored inflammatory changes. We sought to identify an inflammatory signal and the associated brain function underlying anhedonia among young people with recent-onset psychosis and recent-onset depression. METHODS: Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging, inflammatory markers, and anhedonia symptoms were collected from 108 (mean [SD] age = 26.2 [6.2] years; female = 50) participants with recent-onset psychosis (n = 53) and recent-onset depression (n = 55) from the European Union/Seventh Framework Programme-funded PRONIA (Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management) study. Time series were extracted using the Schaefer atlas, defining 100 cortical regions of interest. Using advanced multimodal machine learning, an inflammatory marker model and a functional connectivity model were developed to classify participants into an anhedonic group or a normal hedonic group. RESULTS: A repeated nested cross-validation model using inflammatory markers classified normal hedonic and anhedonic recent-onset psychosis/recent-onset depression groups with a balanced accuracy of 63.9% and an area under the curve of 0.61. The functional connectivity model produced a balanced accuracy of 55.2% and an area under the curve of 0.57. Anhedonic group assignment was driven by higher levels of interleukin 6, S100B, and interleukin 1 receptor antagonist and lower levels of interferon gamma, in addition to connectivity within the precuneus and posterior cingulate. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a potential transdiagnostic anhedonic subtype that was accounted for by an inflammatory profile and functional connectivity. Results have implications

BACKGROUND: Patients with psychosis and patients with depression exhibit widespread neurobiological abnormalities. The analysis of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) allows for the detection of changes in complex brain activity patterns, providing insights into common and unique processes underlying these disorders. METHODS: We report the analysis of dFC in a large sample including 127 patients at clinical high risk for psychosis, 142 patients with recent-onset psychosis, 134 patients with recent-onset depression, and 256 healthy control participants. A sliding window-based technique was used to calculate the time-dependent FC in resting-state magnetic resonance imaging data, followed by clustering to reveal recurrent FC states in each diagnostic group. RESULTS: We identified 5 unique FC states, which could be identified in all groups with high consistency (mean r = 0.889 [SD = 0.116]). Analysis of dynamic parameters of these states showed a characteristic increase in the lifetime and frequency of a weakly connected FC state in patients with recent-onset depression (p < .0005) compared with the other groups and a common increase in the lifetime of an FC state characterized by high sensorimotor and cingulo-opercular connectivities in all patient groups compared with the healthy control group (p < .0002). Canonical correlation analysis revealed a mode that exhibited significant correlations between dFC parameters and clinical variables (r = 0.617, p < .0029), which was associated with positive psychosis symptom severity and several dFC parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate diagnosis-specific alterations of dFC and underline the potential of dynamic analysis to characterize disorders such as depression and psychosis and clinical risk states.

BACKGROUND: Formal thought disorder (FThD) is a core feature of psychosis, and its severity and long-term persistence relates to poor clinical outcomes. However, advances in developing early recognition and management tools for FThD are hindered by a lack of insight into the brain-level predictors of FThD states and progression at the individual level. METHODS: Two hundred thirty-three individuals with recent-onset psychosis were drawn from the multisite European Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management study. Support vector machine classifiers were trained within a cross-validation framework to separate two FThD symptom-based subgroups (high vs. low FThD severity), using cross-sectional whole-brain multiband fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations, gray matter volume and white matter volume data. Moreover, we trained machine learning models on these neuroimaging readouts to predict the persistence of high FThD subgroup membership from baseline to 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: Cross-sectionally, multivariate patterns of gray matter volume within the salience, dorsal attention, visual, and ventral attention networks separated the FThD severity subgroups (balanced accuracy [BAC] = 60.8%). Longitudinally, distributed activations/deactivations within all fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuation sub-bands (BACslow-5 = 73.2%, BACslow-4 = 72.9%, BACslow-3 = 68.0%), gray matter volume patterns overlapping with the cross-sectional ones (BAC = 62.7%), and smaller frontal white matter volume (BAC = 73.1%) predicted the persistence of high FThD severity from baseline to follow-up, with a combined multimodal balanced accuracy of BAC = 77%. CONCLUSIONS: We report the first evidence of brain structural and functional patterns predictive of FThD severity and persistence in early psychosis. These findings open up avenues for the development of neuroimaging-based diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment options for the early recognition and management of FThD and

BACKGROUND: Childhood trauma (CT) is associated with an increased risk of mental health disorders; however, it is unknown whether this represents a diagnosis-specific risk factor for specific psychopathology mediated by structural brain changes. Our aim was to explore whether (i) a predictive CT pattern for transdiagnostic psychopathology exists, and whether (ii) CT can differentiate between distinct diagnosis-dependent psychopathology. Furthermore, we aimed to identify the association between CT, psychopathology and brain structure. METHODS: We used multivariate pattern analysis in data from 643 participants of the Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management study (PRONIA), including healthy controls (HC), recent onset psychosis (ROP), recent onset depression (ROD), and patients clinically at high-risk for psychosis (CHR). Participants completed structured interviews and self-report measures including the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, SCID diagnostic interview, BDI-II, PANSS, Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms and structural MRI, analyzed by voxel-based morphometry. RESULTS: (i) Patients and HC could be distinguished by their CT pattern with a reasonable precision [balanced accuracy of 71.2% (sensitivity = 72.1%, specificity = 70.4%, p ≤ 0.001]. (ii) Subdomains 'emotional neglect' and 'emotional abuse' were most predictive for CHR and ROP, while in ROD 'physical abuse' and 'sexual abuse' were most important. The CT pattern was significantly associated with the severity of depressive symptoms in ROD, ROP, and CHR, as well as with the PANSS total and negative domain scores in the CHR patients. No associations between group-separating CT patterns and brain structure were found. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that CT poses a transdiagnostic risk factor for mental health disorders, possibly related to depressive symptoms. While differences in the quality of CT exposure exist, diagnostic differentiation

OBJECTIVE: Social dysfunction is a major feature of clinical-high-risk states for psychosis (CHR-P). Prior research has identified a neuroanatomical pattern associated with impaired social function outcome in CHR-P. The aim of the current study was to test whether social dysfunction in CHR-P is neurobiologically distinct or in a continuum with the lower end of the normal distribution of individual differences in social functioning. METHODS: We used a machine learning classifier to test for the presence of a previously validated brain structural pattern associated with impaired social outcome in CHR-P (CHR-outcome-neurosignature) in the neuroimaging profiles of individuals from two non-clinical samples (total n = 1763) and examined its association with social function, psychopathology and cognition. RESULTS: Although the CHR-outcome-neurosignature could be detected in a subset of the non-clinical samples, it was not associated was adverse social outcomes or higher psychopathology levels. However, participants whose neuroanatomical profiles were highly aligned with the CHR-outcome-neurosignature manifested subtle disadvantage in fluid (PFDR = 0.004) and crystallized intelligence (PFDR = 0.01), cognitive flexibility (PFDR = 0.02), inhibitory control (PFDR = 0.01), working memory (PFDR = 0.0005), and processing speed (PFDR = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: We provide evidence of divergence in brain structural underpinnings of social dysfunction derived from a psychosis-risk enriched population when applied to non-clinical samples. This approach appears promising in identifying brain mechanisms bound to psychosis through comparisons of patient populations to non-clinical samples with the same neuroanatomical profiles.

BACKGROUND: Identifying neurobiologically based transdiagnostic categories of depression and psychosis may elucidate heterogeneity and provide better candidates for predictive modeling. We aimed to identify clusters across patients with recent-onset depression (ROD) and recent-onset psychosis (ROP) based on structural neuroimaging data. We hypothesized that these transdiagnostic clusters would identify patients with poor outcome and allow more accurate prediction of symptomatic remission than traditional diagnostic structures. METHODS: HYDRA (Heterogeneity through Discriminant Analysis) was trained on whole-brain volumetric measures from 577 participants from the discovery sample of the multisite PRONIA study to identify neurobiologically driven clusters, which were then externally validated in the PRONIA replication sample (n = 404) and three datasets of chronic samples (Centre for Biomedical Research Excellence, n = 146; Mind Clinical Imaging Consortium, n = 202; Munich, n = 470). RESULTS: The optimal clustering solution was two transdiagnostic clusters (cluster 1: n = 153, 67 ROP, 86 ROD; cluster 2: n = 149, 88 ROP, 61 ROD; adjusted Rand index = 0.618). The two clusters contained both patients with ROP and patients with ROD. One cluster had widespread gray matter volume deficits and more positive, negative, and functional deficits (impaired cluster), and one cluster revealed a more preserved neuroanatomical signature and more core depressive symptomatology (preserved cluster). The clustering solution was internally and externally validated and assessed for clinical utility in predicting 9-month symptomatic remission, outperforming traditional diagnostic structures. CONCLUSIONS: We identified two transdiagnostic neuroanatomically informed clusters that are clinically and biologically distinct, challenging current diagnostic boundaries in recent-onset mental health disorders. These results may aid understanding of the etiology of poor outcome patients transdiagnost

BACKGROUND: Formal thought disorder (FTD) has been associated with more severe illness courses and functional deficits in patients with psychotic disorders. However, it remains unclear whether the presence of FTD characterises a specific subgroup of patients showing more prominent illness severity, neurocognitive and functional impairments. This study aimed to identify stable and generalizable FTD-subgroups of patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP) by applying a comprehensive data-driven clustering approach and to test the validity of these subgroups by assessing associations between this FTD-related stratification, social and occupational functioning, and neurocognition. METHODS: 279 patients with ROP were recruited as part of the multi-site European PRONIA study (Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management; www.pronia.eu). Five FTD-related symptoms (conceptual disorganization, poverty of content of speech, difficulty in abstract thinking, increased latency of response and poverty of speech) were assessed with Positive and Negative Symptom Scale (PANSS) and the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS). RESULTS: The results with two patient subgroups showing different levels of FTD were the most stable and generalizable clustering solution (predicted clustering strength value = 0.86). FTD-High subgroup had lower scores in social (pfdr < 0.001) and role (pfdr < 0.001) functioning, as well as worse neurocognitive performance in semantic (pfdr < 0.001) and phonological verbal fluency (pfdr < 0.001), short-term verbal memory (pfdr = 0.002) and abstract thinking (pfdr = 0.010), in comparison to FTD-Low group. CONCLUSIONS: Clustering techniques allowed us to identify patients with more pronounced FTD showing more severe deficits in functioning and neurocognition, thus suggesting that FTD may be a relevant marker of illness severity in the early psychosis pathway.

Continued cannabis use (CCu) is an important predictor for poor long-term outcomes in psychosis and clinically high-risk patients, but no generalizable model has hitherto been tested for its ability to predict CCu in these vulnerable patient groups. In the current study, we investigated how structured clinical and cognitive assessments and structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) contributed to the prediction of CCu in a group of 109 patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP). We tested the generalizability of our predictors in 73 patients at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR). Here, CCu was defined as any cannabis consumption between baseline and 9-month follow-up, as assessed in structured interviews. All patients reported lifetime cannabis use at baseline. Data from clinical assessment alone correctly classified 73% (p < 0.001) of ROP and 59 % of CHR patients. The classifications of CCu based on sMRI and cognition were non-significant (ps > 0.093), and their addition to the interview-based predictor via stacking did not improve prediction significantly, either in the ROP or CHR groups (ps > 0.065). Lower functioning, specific substance use patterns, urbanicity and a lack of other coping strategies contributed reliably to the prediction of CCu and might thus represent important factors for guiding preventative efforts. Our results suggest that it may be possible to identify by clinical measures those psychosis-spectrum patients at high risk for CCu, potentially allowing to improve clinical care through targeted interventions. However, our model needs further testing in larger samples including more diverse clinical populations before being transferred into clinical practice.

IMPORTANCE: The behavioral and cognitive symptoms of severe psychotic disorders overlap with those seen in dementia. However, shared brain alterations remain disputed, and their relevance for patients in at-risk disease stages has not been explored so far. OBJECTIVE: To use machine learning to compare the expression of structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) patterns of behavioral-variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD), Alzheimer disease (AD), and schizophrenia; estimate predictability in patients with bvFTD and schizophrenia based on sociodemographic, clinical, and biological data; and examine prognostic value, genetic underpinnings, and progression in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states for psychosis or recent-onset depression (ROD). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study included 1870 individuals from 5 cohorts, including (1) patients with bvFTD (n = 108), established AD (n = 44), mild cognitive impairment or early-stage AD (n = 96), schizophrenia (n = 157), or major depression (n = 102) to derive and compare diagnostic patterns and (2) patients with CHR (n = 160) or ROD (n = 161) to test patterns' prognostic relevance and progression. Healthy individuals (n = 1042) were used for age-related and cohort-related data calibration. Data were collected from January 1996 to July 2019 and analyzed between April 2020 and April 2022. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Case assignments based on diagnostic patterns; sociodemographic, clinical, and biological data; 2-year functional outcomes and genetic separability of patients with CHR and ROD with high vs low pattern expression; and pattern progression from baseline to follow-up MRI scans in patients with nonrecovery vs preserved recovery. RESULTS: Of 1870 included patients, 902 (48.2%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 38.0 (19.3) years. The bvFTD pattern comprising prefrontal, insular, and limbic volume reductions was more expressed in patients with schizophrenia (65 of 157 [41.2%]) and major depressi

Subtle subjective visual dysfunctions (VisDys) are reported by about 50% of patients with schizophrenia and are suggested to predict psychosis states. Deeper insight into VisDys, particularly in early psychosis states, could foster the understanding of basic disease mechanisms mediating susceptibility to psychosis, and thereby inform preventive interventions. We systematically investigated the relationship between VisDys and core clinical measures across three early phase psychiatric conditions. Second, we used a novel multivariate pattern analysis approach to predict VisDys by resting-state functional connectivity within relevant brain systems. VisDys assessed with the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument (SPI-A), clinical measures, and resting-state fMRI data were examined in recent-onset psychosis (ROP, n = 147), clinical high-risk states of psychosis (CHR, n = 143), recent-onset depression (ROD, n = 151), and healthy controls (HC, n = 280). Our multivariate pattern analysis approach used pairwise functional connectivity within occipital (ON) and frontoparietal (FPN) networks implicated in visual information processing to predict VisDys. VisDys were reported more often in ROP (50.34%), and CHR (55.94%) than in ROD (16.56%), and HC (4.28%). Higher severity of VisDys was associated with less functional remission in both CHR and ROP, and, in CHR specifically, lower quality of life (Qol), higher depressiveness, and more severe impairment of visuospatial constructability. ON functional connectivity predicted presence of VisDys in ROP (balanced accuracy 60.17%, p = 0.0001) and CHR (67.38%, p = 0.029), while in the combined ROP + CHR sample VisDys were predicted by FPN (61.11%, p = 0.006). These large-sample study findings suggest that VisDys are clinically highly relevant not only in ROP but especially in CHR, being closely related to aspects of functional outcome, depressiveness, and Qol. Findings from multivariate pattern analysis support a model of functional integrit

BACKGROUND: The aim of the current study was to explore the effect of gender, age at onset, and duration on the long-term course of schizophrenia. METHODS: Twenty-nine centers from 25 countries representing all continents participated in the study that included 2358 patients aged 37.21 ± 11.87 years with a DSM-IV or DSM-5 diagnosis of schizophrenia; the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale as well as relevant clinicodemographic data were gathered. Analysis of variance and analysis of covariance were used, and the methodology corrected for the presence of potentially confounding effects. RESULTS: There was a 3-year later age at onset for females (P < .001) and lower rates of negative symptoms (P < .01) and higher depression/anxiety measures (P < .05) at some stages. The age at onset manifested a distribution with a single peak for both genders with a tendency of patients with younger onset having slower advancement through illness stages (P = .001). No significant effects were found concerning duration of illness. DISCUSSION: Our results confirmed a later onset and a possibly more benign course and outcome in females. Age at onset manifested a single peak in both genders, and surprisingly, earlier onset was related to a slower progression of the illness. No effect of duration has been detected. These results are partially in accord with the literature, but they also differ as a consequence of the different starting point of our methodology (a novel staging model), which in our opinion precluded the impact of confounding effects. Future research should focus on the therapeutic policy and implications of these results in more representative samples.

Negative symptoms occur frequently in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and contribute to functional impairments. The aim of this study was to predict negative symptom severity in CHR after 9 months. Predictive models either included baseline negative symptoms measured with the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS-N), whole-brain gyrification, or both to forecast negative symptoms of at least moderate severity in 94 CHR. We also conducted sequential risk stratification to stratify CHR into different risk groups based on the SIPS-N and gyrification model. Additionally, we assessed the models' ability to predict functional outcomes in CHR and their transdiagnostic generalizability to predict negative symptoms in 96 patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP) and 97 patients with recent-onset depression (ROD). Baseline SIPS-N and gyrification predicted moderate/severe negative symptoms with significant balanced accuracies of 68 and 62%, while the combined model achieved 73% accuracy. Sequential risk stratification stratified CHR into a high (83%), medium (40-64%), and low (19%) risk group regarding their risk of having moderate/severe negative symptoms at 9 months follow-up. The baseline SIPS-N model was also able to predict social (61%), but not role functioning (59%) at above-chance accuracies, whereas the gyrification model achieved significant accuracies in predicting both social (76%) and role (74%) functioning in CHR. Finally, only the baseline SIPS-N model showed transdiagnostic generalization to ROP (63%). This study delivers a multimodal prognostic model to identify those CHR with a clinically relevant negative symptom severity and functional impairments, potentially requiring further therapeutic consideration.

IMPORTANCE: Diverse models have been developed to predict psychosis in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states. Whether prediction can be improved by efficiently combining clinical and biological models and by broadening the risk spectrum to young patients with depressive syndromes remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) using multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia; to assess models' geographic generalizability; to test and integrate clinicians' predictions; and to maximize clinical utility by building a sequential prognostic system. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This multisite, longitudinal prognostic study performed in 7 academic early recognition services in 5 European countries followed up patients with CHR syndromes or ROD and healthy volunteers. The referred sample of 167 patients with CHR syndromes and 167 with ROD was recruited from February 1, 2014, to May 31, 2017, of whom 26 (23 with CHR syndromes and 3 with ROD) developed psychosis. Patients with 18-month follow-up (n = 246) were used for model training and leave-one-site-out cross-validation. The remaining 88 patients with nontransition served as the validation of model specificity. Three hundred thirty-four healthy volunteers provided a normative sample for prognostic signature evaluation. Three independent Swiss projects contributed a further 45 cases with psychosis transition and 600 with nontransition for the external validation of clinical-neurocognitive, sMRI-based, and combined models. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Accuracy and generalizability of prognostic systems. RESULTS: A total of 668 individuals (334 patients and 334 controls) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.

Two decades of studies suggest that computerized cognitive training (CCT) has an effect on cognitive improvement and the restoration of brain activity. Nevertheless, individual response to CCT remains heterogenous, and the predictive potential of neuroimaging in gauging response to CCT remains unknown. We employed multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) on whole-brain resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) to (neuro)monitor clinical outcome defined as psychosis-likeness change after 10-hours of CCT in recent onset psychosis (ROP) patients. Additionally, we investigated if sensory processing (SP) change during CCT is associated with individual psychosis-likeness change and cognitive gains after CCT. 26 ROP patients were divided into maintainers and improvers based on their SP change during CCT. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier separating 56 healthy controls (HC) from 35 ROP patients using rsFC (balanced accuracy of 65.5%, P < 0.01) was built in an independent sample to create a naturalistic model representing the HC-ROP hyperplane. This model was out-of-sample cross-validated in the ROP patients from the CCT trial to assess associations between rsFC pattern change, cognitive gains and SP during CCT. Patients with intact SP threshold at baseline showed improved attention despite psychosis status on the SVM hyperplane at follow-up (p < 0.05). Contrarily, the attentional gains occurred in the ROP patients who showed impaired SP at baseline only if rsfMRI diagnosis status shifted to the healthy-like side of the SVM continuum. Our results reveal the utility of MVPA for elucidating treatment response neuromarkers based on rsFC-SP change and pave the road to more personalized interventions.

In schizophrenia, neurocognitive subtypes can be distinguished based on cognitive performance and they are associated with neuroanatomical alterations. We investigated the existence of cognitive subtypes in shortly medicated recent onset psychosis patients, their underlying gray matter volume patterns and clinical characteristics. We used a K-means algorithm to cluster 108 psychosis patients from the multi-site EU PRONIA (Prognostic tools for early psychosis management) study based on cognitive performance and validated the solution independently (N = 53). Cognitive subgroups and healthy controls (HC; n = 195) were classified based on gray matter volume (GMV) using Support Vector Machine classification. A cognitively spared (N = 67) and impaired (N = 41) subgroup were revealed and partially independently validated (Nspared = 40, Nimpaired = 13). Impaired patients showed significantly increased negative symptomatology (pfdr = 0.003), reduced cognitive performance (pfdr < 0.001) and general functioning (pfdr < 0.035) in comparison to spared patients. Neurocognitive deficits of the impaired subgroup persist in both discovery and validation sample across several domains, including verbal memory and processing speed. A GMV pattern (balanced accuracy = 60.1%, p = 0.01) separating impaired patients from HC revealed increases and decreases across several fronto-temporal-parietal brain areas, including basal ganglia and cerebellum. Cognitive and functional disturbances alongside brain morphological changes in the impaired subgroup are consistent with a neurodevelopmental origin of psychosis. Our findings emphasize the relevance of tailored intervention early in the course of psychosis for patients suffering from the likely stronger neurodevelopmental character of the disease.

Background Psychotic disorders are associated with serious deterioration in functioning even before the first psychotic episode. Also on clinical high risk (CHR) states of developing a first psychotic episode, several studies reported a decreased global functioning. In a considerable proportion of CHR individuals, functional deterioration remains even after (transient) remission of symptomatic risk indicators. Furthermore, deficits in functioning cause immense costs for the health care system and are often more debilitating for individuals than positive symptoms. However in the past, CHR research has mostly focused on clinical outcomes like transition. Prediction of functioning in CHR populations has received less attention. Therefore, the current study aims at predicting functioning in CHR individuals at a single subject level applying multi pattern recognition to clinical data. Patients with a first depressive episode who frequently have persistent functional deficits comparable to patients in the CHR state were investigated in addition. Methods PRONIA (‘Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management’) is a prospective collaboration project funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Programme (grant agreement n°602152). Considering a broad set of variables (MRI, clinical data, neurocognition, genomics and other blood derived parameters) as well as advanced statistical methods, PRONIA aims at developing an innovative multivariate prognostic tool enabling an individualized prediction of illness trajectories and outcome. 11 university centers in five European countries and in Australia (Munich, Basel, Birmingham, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Münster, Melbourne, Milan, Udine, Bari, Turku) participate in the evaluation of three clinical groups (subjects clinically at high risk of developing a psychosis [CHR], patients with a recent onset psychosis [ROP] and patients with a recent onset depression [ROD]) as well as healthy controls. In the curre

Background A multitude of clinical models to predict transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) have been proposed. However, only limited efforts have been made to systematically compare these models and to validate their performance in independent samples. Therefore, in this study we identified psychosis risk models based on information readily obtainable in general clinical settings, such as clinical and neuropsychological data, and compared their performance in the PRONIA study (Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management, www.pronia.eu) as an independent sample. Methods Of the 278 CHR participants in the PRONIA sample, 150 had available data until month 18 and were included in the validation of eleven psychosis prediction models identified through systematic literature search. Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and compared to the performance of the prognosis of clinical raters. Psychosocial functioning was explored as an alternative outcome. Results Discrimination performance varied considerably across models (AUC ranging from 0.42 to 0.79). High model performance was associated with the inclusion of neurocognitive variables as predictors. Low model performance was associated with predictors based on dichotomized variables. Clinical raters performed comparable to the best data-driven models (AUC = 0.75). Combining raters’ prognosis and model-based predictions improved discrimination performance (AUC = 0.84), particularly for less experienced raters. One of the tested models predicted transition to psychosis and psychosocial outcomes comparably well. Discussion The present external validation study highlights the benefit of enriching clinical information with neuropsychological data in predicting transition to psychosis satisfactorily and with good generalizability across samples. Integration of data-driven risk models and clinical expert

Background Childhood trauma (CT) is associated with an increased risk for psychiatric disorders like major depression and psychosis. However, the pathophysiological relationship between CT, psychiatric disease and structural brain alterations is still unknown. Methods PRONIA (‘Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Mangement’) is a prospective collaboration project funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Programme (grant agreement n° 602152). Considering a broad set of variables (sMRI, rsMRI, DTI, psychopathological, life event related and sociobiographic data, neurocognition, genomics and other blood derived parameters) as well as advanced statistical methods, PRONIA aims at developing an innovative multivariate prognostic tool enabling an individualized prediction of illness trajectories and outcome. Seven clinical centers in five European countries and in Australia participate in the evaluation of three clinical groups (subjects clinically at high risk of developing a psychosis (CHR), patients with a recent onset psychosis (ROP) and patients with a recent onset depression (ROD)) as well as healthy controls (HC). To investigate the high-dimensional patterns of CT experience, measured by the childhood trauma questionnaire (CTQ), in HC and our three patient groups (PAT) (n=643), we used a Support Vector Machine (SVM). Furthermore, we tested whether patient-specific CT exposure is associated with structural brain changes by VBM analyses. Results We found that patients and HC could be separated very well by their CTQ pattern, whereas the different patient groups showed no specific CTQ pattern. Furthermore, an association with extensive grey matter changes suggests an impact on brain maturation which may put individuals at increased risk for mental disease. Discussion We have demonstrated in this large multi-center cohort that adverse experiences in childhood contribute transdiagnostically to the riskr for developing a psychiatric disea

Background Precise prognosis of clinical outcomes in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) of developing psychosis is imperative to guide treatment selection. While much effort has been put into the prediction of transition to psychosis in CHR individuals, prognostic models focusing on negative symptom progression in this population are widely missing. This is a major oversight bearing in mind that 82% of CHR individuals exhibit at least one negative symptom in the moderate to severe range at first clinical presentation, whereas 54% still meet this criteria after 12 months. Negative symptoms are strong predictors of poor functional outcome irrespective of other symptoms such as depression or anxiety. Prognostic tools are therefore urgently required to track negative symptom progression in CHR individuals in order to guide early personalized interventions. Here, we applied machine-learning to multi-site data from five European countries with the aim of predicting negative symptoms of at least moderate severity 9-month after study inclusion. Methods We analyzed data from the ‘Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management’ (PRONIA; www.pronia.eu) study, which consisted of 94 individuals at clinical high-risk of developing psychosis (CHR). Predictive models either included baseline level of negative symptoms, measured with the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes, whole-brain gyrification pattern, or both to forecast negative symptoms of moderate severity or above in CHR individuals. Using data from the clinical and gyrification model, further sequential testing simulations were conducted to stratify CHR individuals into different risk groups. Lastly, we assessed the models’ ability to predict functional outcomes in CHR individuals. Results Baseline negative symptom severity alone predicted moderate to severe negative symptoms with a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 68%, whereas predictive models trained on gyrification measures achieved a BA

Background Formal thought disorder (FThD) has been associated with more severe illness courses and functional deficits in psychosis patients. Given these associations, it remains unclear whether the presence of FThD accounts for the heterogeneous presentation of psychoses, and whether it characterises a specific subgroup of patients showing prominent differential illness severity, neurocognitive and functional impairments already in the early stages of psychosis. Thus, our aim is 1) to evaluate whether there are stable subtypes of patients with Recent-Onset Psychosis (ROP) that are characterized by distinct FThD patterns, 2) to investigate whether this FThD-related stratification is associated with clinical, and neurocognitive phenotypes at an early stage of the disease, and 3) to explore correlation patterns among the FThD-related symptoms, functioning and neurocognition through network analysis. Methods 279 individuals experiencing ROP were recruited for this project as part of multi-site European PRONIA study. In the present study, FThD was assessed with conceptual disorganization, difficulty in abstract thinking, poverty of content of speech, increased latency of response and poverty of speech items from the Positive and Negative Symptom Scale (PANSS) and the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS). We first applied a multi-step clustering protocol comparing three clustering algorithms: (i) k-means, (ii) hierarchical clustering, and (iii) partitioning around medoids with the number of clusters ranging from 2 to 10. Our protocol runs following four checkpoints; (i) validity [ClValid package], (ii) re-evaluation of validity results and unbiased determination of the winning algorithm [NbClust package], (iii) stability test [ClusterStability package] and (iv) generalizability [predict.strength package] testing for the most optimal clustering solution. Thereafter, we investigated whether the identified FThD subgrouping solution was associated wi

In community studies, both attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and basic symptoms (BS) were more frequent but less clinically relevant in children and adolescents compared to adults. In doing so, they displayed differential age thresholds that were around age 16 for APS, around age 18 for perceptive BS, and within the early twenties for cognitive BS. Only the age effect has previously been studied and replicated in clinical samples for APS. Thus, we examined the reported age effect on and age thresholds of 14 criteria-relevant BS in a patient sample at clinical-high risk of psychosis (N = 261, age 15-40 yrs.), recruited within the European multicenter PRONIA-study. BS and the BS criteria, "Cognitive Disturbances" (COGDIS) and "Cognitive-perceptive BS" (COPER), were assessed with the "Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Adult version" (SPI-A). Using logistic regressions, prevalence rates of perceptive and cognitive BS, and of COGDIS and COPER, as well as the impact of social and role functioning on the association between age and BS were studied in three age groups (15-18 years, 19-23 years, 24-40 years). Most patients (91.2%) reported any BS, 55.9% any perceptive and 87.4% any cognitive BS. Furthermore, 56.3% met COGDIS and 80.5% COPER. Not exhibiting the reported differential age thresholds, both perceptive and cognitive BS, and, at trend level only, COPER were less prevalent in the oldest age group (24-40 years); COGDIS was most frequent in the youngest group (15-18 years). Functional deficits did not better explain the association with age, particularly in perceptive BS and cognitive BS meeting the frequency requirement of BS criteria. Our findings broadly confirmed an age threshold in BS and, thus, the earlier assumed link between presence of BS and brain maturation processes. Yet, age thresholds of perceptive and cognitive BS did not differ. This lack of differential age thresholds might be due to more pronounced the brain abnormalities in this clinical sample

BACKGROUND: Childhood trauma (CT) is a major yet elusive psychiatric risk factor, whose multidimensional conceptualization and heterogeneous effects on brain morphology might demand advanced mathematical modeling. Therefore, we present an unsupervised machine learning approach to characterize the clinical and neuroanatomical complexity of CT in a larger, transdiagnostic context. METHODS: We used a multicenter European cohort of 1076 female and male individuals (discovery: n = 649; replication: n = 427) comprising young, minimally medicated patients with clinical high-risk states for psychosis; patients with recent-onset depression or psychosis; and healthy volunteers. We employed multivariate sparse partial least squares analysis to detect parsimonious associations between combinations of items from the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire and gray matter volume and tested their generalizability via nested cross-validation as well as via external validation. We investigated the associations of these CT signatures with state (functioning, depressivity, quality of life), trait (personality), and sociodemographic levels. RESULTS: We discovered signatures of age-dependent sexual abuse and sex-dependent physical and sexual abuse, as well as emotional trauma, which projected onto gray matter volume patterns in prefronto-cerebellar, limbic, and sensory networks. These signatures were associated with predominantly impaired clinical state- and trait-level phenotypes, while pointing toward an interaction between sexual abuse, age, urbanicity, and education. We validated the clinical profiles for all three CT signatures in the replication sample. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest distinct multilayered associations between partially age- and sex-dependent patterns of CT, distributed neuroanatomical networks, and clinical profiles. Hence, our study highlights how machine learning approaches can shape future, more fine-grained CT research.

Recent life events have been implicated in the onset and progression of psychosis. However, psychological processes that account for the association are yet to be fully understood. Using a network approach, we aimed to identify pathways linking recent life events and symptoms observed in psychosis. Based on previous literature, we hypothesized that general symptoms would mediate between recent life events and psychotic symptoms. We analyzed baseline data of patients at clinical high risk for psychosis and with recent-onset psychosis (n = 547) from the Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) study. In a network analysis, we modeled links between the burden of recent life events and all individual symptoms of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale before and after controlling for childhood trauma. To investigate the longitudinal associations between burden of recent life events and symptoms, we analyzed multiwave panel data from seven timepoints up to month 18. Corroborating our hypothesis, burden of recent life events was connected to positive and negative symptoms through general psychopathology, specifically depression, guilt feelings, anxiety and tension, even after controlling for childhood trauma. Longitudinal modeling indicated that on average, burden of recent life events preceded general psychopathology in the individual. In line with the theory of an affective pathway to psychosis, recent life events may lead to psychotic symptoms via heightened emotional distress. Life events may be one driving force of unspecific, general psychopathology described as characteristic of early phases of the psychosis spectrum, offering promising avenues for interventions.

Background Childhood maltreatment (CM) is a major psychiatric risk factor and leads to long-lasting physical and mental health implications throughout the affected individual’s lifespan. Nonetheless, the neuroanatomical correlates of CM and their specific clinical impact remain elusive. This might be attributed to the complex, multidimensional nature of CM as well as to the restrictions of traditional analysis pipelines using nosological grouping, univariate analysis and region-of-interest approaches. To overcome these issues, we present a novel transdiagnostic and naturalistic machine learning approach towards a better and more comprehensive understanding of the clinical and neuroanatomical complexity of CM. Methods We acquired our dataset from the multi-center European PRONIA cohort (www.pronia.eu). Specifically, we selected 649 male and female individuals, comprising young, minimally medicated patients with clinical high-risk states for psychosis as well as recent-onset of depression or psychosis and healthy volunteers. As part of our analysis approach, we created a new Matlab Toolbox, which performs multivariate Sparse Partial Least Squares Analysis in a robust machine learning framework. We employed this algorithm to detect multi-layered associations between combinations of items from the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) and grey matter volume (GMV) and assessed their generalizability via nested cross-validation. The clinical relevance of these CM signatures was assessed by correlating them to a wide range of clinical measurements, including current functioning (GAF, GF), depressivity (BDI), quality of life (WHOQOL-BREF) and personality traits (NEO-FFI). Results Overall, we detected three distinct signatures of sexual, physical and emotional maltreatment. The first signature consisted of an age-dependent sexual abuse pattern and a corresponding GMV pattern along the prefronto-thalamo-cerebellar axis. The second signature yielded a sex-dependent phy

Background Evidence exists that cannabis consumption is associated with the development of psychosis. Further, continued cannabis use in individuals with recent onset psychosis (ROP) increases the risk for rehospitalization, high symptom severity and low general functioning. Clear inter-individual differences in the vulnerability to the harmful effects of the drug have been pointed out. These findings emphasize the importance of investigating the inter-individual variability in the role of cannabis use in ROP and to understand how cannabis use relates to subclinical conditions that predate the full-blown disease in clinical high-risk (CHR). Specific symptoms have been linked with continued cannabis consume, still research is lacking on how different factors contribute together to an elevated risk of cannabis relapse. Multivariate techniques have the capacity to extract complex patterns from high dimensional data and apply generalized rules to unseen cases. The aim of the study is therefore to assess the predictability of cannabis relapse in ROP and CHR by applying machine learning to clinical and environmental data. Methods All participants were recruited within the multi-site, longitudinal PRONIA study (www.pronia.eu). 112 individuals (58 ROP and 54 CHR) from 8 different European research centres reported lifetime cannabis consume at baseline and were abstinent for at least 4 weeks. We defined cannabis relapse as any cannabis consume between baseline and 9 months follow-up reported by the individual. To predict cannabis relapse, we trained a random forest algorithm implemented in the mlr package, R version 3.5.2. on 183 baseline variables including clinical symptoms, general functioning, demographics and consume patterns within a repeated-nested cross-validation framework. The data underwent pre-processing through pruning of non-informative variables and median-imputation for missing values. The number of trees was set to 500, while the number of nodes, sa

INTRODUCTION: A specific clinically relevant staging model for schizophrenia has not yet been developed. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the factor structure of the PANSS and develop such a staging method. METHODS: Twenty-nine centers from 25 countries contributed 2358 patients aged 37.21 ± 11.87 years with schizophrenia. Analysis of covariance, Exploratory Factor Analysis, Discriminant Function Analysis, and inspection of resultant plots were performed. RESULTS: Exploratory Factor Analysis returned 5 factors explaining 59% of the variance (positive, negative, excitement/hostility, depression/anxiety, and neurocognition). The staging model included 4 main stages with substages that were predominantly characterized by a single domain of symptoms (stage 1: positive; stages 2a and 2b: excitement/hostility; stage 3a and 3b: depression/anxiety; stage 4a and 4b: neurocognition). There were no differences between sexes. The Discriminant Function Analysis developed an algorithm that correctly classified >85% of patients. DISCUSSION: This study elaborates a 5-factor solution and a clinical staging method for patients with schizophrenia. It is the largest study to address these issues among patients who are more likely to remain affiliated with mental health services for prolonged periods of time.