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This paper aims at exploring the economy-wide impacts of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 in Thailand. This study developed a recursive dynamic Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model of Thailand for the assessment. The macroeconomic impacts of Thailand’s net-zero GHG emission targets by 2050 are analyzed relative to its 2-degree pathway. Results indicate that Thailand should put more effort in GHG mitigation actions to achieve the emissions peak by 2025 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Improvement in energy efficiency; increasing electrification; expanding renewable energy utilization; deploying green hydrogen; bioenergy; carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS); and behavioral changes are the key identified pillars of decarbonization to drive Thailand towards the pathways of net-zero emissions by 2050. Results show that there is a possibility of attaining net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 at the expense of an economic loss for Thailand. The gross domestic product (GDP) loss would be as high as 8.5% in 2050 to attain net-zero emissions. Lower productivity from the energy intensive industries such as petroleum refineries, coal and lignite mining, manufacturing industries, and transport are the key contributing sectors to the GDP losses. The price of carbon mitigation would shoot up to reach USD 734 per tCO2eq in 2050 from USD 14 per tCO2eq in 2025 to attain net-zero emissions in 2050.

Energy efficiency improvement is one of the measures undertaken by government of Thailand to achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by 2030 and contribute towards carbon neutrality 2050. The objective of this study is to compare the economy of Thailand before and after the implementation of energy efficiency improvement. This study also assessed the rebound effects of energy efficiency improvement and further analyzed the role of carbon tax in minimizing the rebound effects. In addition, the effects of GHG emissions with energy efficiency improvement and carbon tax were also assessed. The study was analyzed by developing a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Thailand. The CGE model consists of 27 non-energy sectors and 5 energy sectors. This study finds that the energy efficiency improvement in the production sectors would lower the energy consumption in the overall production sectors but increase the consumption in the household sector and its associated GHG emissions from the energy use. However, energy efficiency improvement in both households and production sectors would cause a decline in the overall energy consumption and GHG emissions. Results show the rebound effects in the aforementioned energy efficiency improvement cases. It is found that the implementation of carbon tax of $5/tCO2e would not be enough to neutralize the rebound effects, however, carbon tax of $10/tCO2e would be sufficient to neutralize the rebound effects with GDP gain.

National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years., 世界各国の2050年の温室効果ガス削減目標を分析するための国際的な研究フレームワークの提案. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2021-05-28., Pathways to global climate targets. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2021-06-01.

Thailand’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims to reduce 20 to 25% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with respect to the projected reference level of NDC in 2030, respectively, in its unconditional and conditional scenarios. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C would require net zero carbon dioxide emissions globally by around 2050. Thailand’s current energy system is highly fossil fuel dependent and requires enormous transformations to achieve more stringent GHG emission reduction targets beyond its NDC. This paper seeks to estimate the level and the intensities of Thailand’s energy system and their economy-wide effects post-2030 under the business as usual and 16 GHG emission reduction scenarios ranging from 30 to 100% by 2050. A computable general equilibrium analysis using the AIM/Hub model is employed to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of meeting the unconditional and conditional emission reductions of Thailand’s NDC in 2030 along with varying GHG emission reductions in 2050. Results show that renewables – constituting solar, wind, biomass and hydro and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies account for more than 95% in the power generation mix by 2050, if 100% GHG emission reduction from the 2010 level is to be achieved. Electricity generation based on biomass both with and without CCS will occupy a major share in the investments by 2050 in all the conditional and unconditional NDC scenarios. A rapid increase in carbon sequestration occurs from 2040 onwards through the deployment of CCS and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) technologies in all the conditional and unconditional NDC scenarios. Carbon prices lie in the range of 3.4–266.2 US$/tCO2eq during 2025–2050 to achieve 100% GHG emission reductions in 2050. Imposition of early stringent mitigation target lowers the carbon prices in the conditional scenarios towards 2050 when compared to the unconditional scenarios. The rapid uptake of CCS, energy efficiency improvements and electrification of the end-use technologies are identified to be the key measures to transform the energy system of Thailand. Key policy insightsBy 2050, the Thai economy would face a higher fall in both the GDP and household consumption in the unconditional scenarios than those in the conditional scenarios at all levels of GHG emission reduction.Results indicate that early mitigation efforts can be less costly than the delayed ones in the long-term.The cumulative investment needed to achieve decarbonization in Thailand is estimated to exceed 355 billion US$2005 over the period 2010–2050 in the 100% GHG reduction scenarios.The transmission and distribution investments in the power sector need to increase by 30–35% to attain 100% GHG emission reductions during 2010–2050.The trade deficit improves by up to 23–29% in the various GHG mitigation scenarios in 2050. By 2050, the Thai economy would face a higher fall in both the GDP and household consumption in the unconditional scenarios than those in the conditional scenarios at all levels of GHG emission reduction. Results indicate that early mitigation efforts can be less costly than the delayed ones in the long-term. The cumulative investment needed to achieve decarbonization in Thailand is estimated to exceed 355 billion US$2005 over the period 2010–2050 in the 100% GHG reduction scenarios. The transmission and distribution investments in the power sector need to increase by 30–35% to attain 100% GHG emission reductions during 2010–2050. The trade deficit improves by up to 23–29% in the various GHG mitigation scenarios in 2050.

CO2 mitigation has become increasingly an important environmental issue for developing countries. This paper analyses the energy system development, the associated CO2 and local pollutant emissions in Nepal and Thailand using the bottom-up cost-minimizing MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) modeling framework under the base case and three different carbon tax scenarios during 2010-2050. Nepal’s energy system is dominated by biomass and is estimated to remain the same by 2050, however its share is likely to decrease from 84% to 35% during 2010-2050. A wide increase in the share of petroleum products and hydropower is expected in the energy system of Nepal by 2050. The power generation mix of Nepal would continue to remain hydropower dominant during the planning period, however there would be a small increase in the share of other renewables (i.e. solar and municipal solid waste) by 2050. For Thailand, this study found that the energy system would be driven by coal with the reduction in the combined share of oil and natural gas by 2050. Unlike Nepal, the power sector of Thailand is natural gas dominant, and would continue to remain the same throughout the planning period. Nuclear power generation is estimated to penetrate after 2035 and its share is estimated to increase from 3% in 2035 to 9% in 2050 under the base case. The transport sector is the major contributor in the total CO2 emissions in Nepal while the power sector occupied the largest share in the total CO2 emissions in Thailand in 2010. The transport sector in Nepal would continue to remain the major CO2 emitting sector while the industrial sector in Thailand would be the major CO2 contributor by 2050. Under the carbon tax scenarios, the majority of the CO2 emission reduction would come from the residential sector in Nepal while that from the power sector in Thailand.

This study performed scenario analysis using the MARKAL modelling framework to assess Thailand’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways over the period 2010–2050, to explore the possibilities of achieving carbon neutrality of the energy system by 2060–2100, in pursuit of a maximum temperature rise of 2°C and 1.5°C by the end of the century. The shift from 2°C pathways to 1.5°C pathways would demand much more effort and pose greater challenges in terms of transformational changes required in the energy supply and demand sectors of Thailand. Carbon neutrality in the energy supply system would be achievable with negative emissions through the adoption of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The strong deployment of renewable energy-based power generation would also aid in the rapid decarbonization of the energy supply sector. The demand sectors would face more challenges requiring rapid and extensive deployment of energy efficient and low carbon technologies. The commercial sector may need to undergo deep decarbonization in the 1.5°C scenarios by 2050 while the industrial and residential sectors will need to curb GHG emissions by a large amount even under 2°C scenarios. The transportation sector would face challenges in shifting from private to public modes of transport, including wide adoption of electric and biofuel vehicles, in order to achieve the 1.5°C target. Key Policy insightsThe attainment of 2°C and 1.5°C targets demand for a wide scale adoption of BECCS in Thailand resulting in negative emissions in the power sector even before 2050.Biomass, solar photovoltaics, and wind power would make up to the largest portion in the total power generation mix of Thailand in the 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios by 2050.Achieving carbon neutrality of the energy system by 2060–2100 is a challenging task for Thailand requiring higher investments and supportive policy actions to promote renewables, carbon capture and storage technologies, and energy efficiency enhancements. The attainment of 2°C and 1.5°C targets demand for a wide scale adoption of BECCS in Thailand resulting in negative emissions in the power sector even before 2050. Biomass, solar photovoltaics, and wind power would make up to the largest portion in the total power generation mix of Thailand in the 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios by 2050. Achieving carbon neutrality of the energy system by 2060–2100 is a challenging task for Thailand requiring higher investments and supportive policy actions to promote renewables, carbon capture and storage technologies, and energy efficiency enhancements.

This paper analyzes the sectoral energy consumption pattern and emissions of CO2 and local air pollutants in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. It also discusses the evolution of energy service demands, structure of energy supply system and emissions from various sectors under the base case scenario during 2005–2050. A long term energy system planning model of the Kathmandu Valley based on the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) framework is used for the analyses. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the least cost options to achieve CO2 emission reduction targets of 10%, 20% and 30% below the cumulative emission level in the base case and also discusses their implications for total cost, technology-mix, energy-mix and local pollutant emissions. The paper shows that a major switch in energy use pattern from oil and gas to electricity would be needed in the Valley to achieve the cumulative CO2 emission reduction target of 30% (ER30). Further, the share of electricity in the cumulative energy consumption of the transport sector would increase from 12% in the base case to 24% in the ER30 case.