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Analyses of observational data (from year 1870 AD) show that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the pathway of Atlantic Water transport in the North Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the Iceland Sea are spatially coherent at multidecadal timescales. Spatially coherent SST anomalies are also observed over hundreds of thousands of years during parts of the Pliocene (5.23–5.03, 4.63–4.43, and 4.33–4.03 Ma). However, when investigating CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) SSP126 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) future scenario runs (next century) and other Pliocene time intervals, the following three additional SST relations emerge: (1) the Norwegian Sea SST anomaly is dissimilar to the North Atlantic and the Iceland Sea SST anomalies (Pliocene; 4.93–4.73 and 3.93–3.63 Ma), (2) the Iceland Sea SST anomaly is dissimilar to the North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea SST anomalies (Pliocene; 3.43–3.23 Ma), and (3) the North Atlantic SST anomaly is dissimilar to the SST anomalies of the Norwegian and Iceland seas (future trend). Hence, spatially non-coherent SST anomalies may occur in equilibrium climates (Pliocene), as well as in response to transient forcing (CMIP6 SSP126 low-emission future scenario). Since buoyancy is a key forcing for the inflow of Atlantic Water to the Norwegian Sea, we investigate the impacts of buoyancy forcing on spatial relations between SST anomalies seen in the North Atlantic and the Norwegian and Iceland seas. This is done by performing a range of idealized experiments using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). Through these idealized experiments we can reproduce three out of four of the documented SST anomaly relations: being spatially coherent under weak to intermediate freshwater forcing over the Nordic Seas, the Iceland Sea being dissimilar to the North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea under weak atmospheric warming over the Nordic Seas, and the North Atlantic being dissimilar to the Norwegian and Iceland seas under strong atmospheric warming over the Nordic Seas. We suggest that the unexplained SST anomaly relation, when the Norwegian Sea is dissimilar to the North Atlantic and the Iceland Sea, may reflect a response to a weakened Norwegian Atlantic Current compensated for by a strong Irminger Current or an expanded East Greenland Current.

Considered one of the most significant climate reorganizations of the Cenozoic period, the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT; ca. 34.44-33.65) is characterized by global cooling and the first major glacial advance on Antarctica. In the southern high latitudes, the EOT cooling is primarily recorded in the marine realm, and its extent and effect on the terrestrial climate and vegetation are poorly documented. Here, we present new, well-dated, continuous, high-resolution palynological (sporomorph) data and quantitative sporomorph-based climate estimates recovered from the East Tasman Plateau (ODP Site 1172) to reconstruct climate and vegetation dynamics from the late Eocene (37.97gMa) to the early Oligocene (33.06gMa). Our results indicate three major climate transitions and four vegetation communities occupying Tasmania under different precipitation and temperature regimes: (i) a warm-temperate Nothofagus-Podocarpaceae-dominated rainforest with paratropical elements from 37.97 to 37.52gMa; (ii) a cool-temperate Nothofagus-dominated rainforest with secondary Podocarpaceae rapidly expanding and taking over regions previously occupied by the warmer taxa between 37.306 and 35.60gMa; (iii) fluctuation between warm-temperate-paratropical taxa and cool temperate forest from 35.50 to 34.49gMa, followed by a cool phase across the EOT (34.30-33.82gMa); and (iv) a post-EOT (earliest Oligocene) recovery characterized by a warm-temperate forest association from 33.55 to 33.06gMa. Coincident with changes in the stratification of water masses and sequestration of carbon from surface water in the Southern Ocean, our sporomorph-based temperature estimates between 37.52 and 35.60gMa (phase ii) showed 2-3gg C terrestrial cooling. The unusual fluctuation between warm and cold temperate forest between 35.50 to 34.59gMa is suggested to be linked to the initial deepening of the Tasmanian Gateway, allowing eastern Tasmania to come under the influence of warm water associated with the proto-Leeuwin Current (PLC). Further to the above, our terrestrial data show the mean annual temperature declining by about 2gg C across the EOT before recovering in the earliest Oligocene. This phenomenon is synchronous with regional and global cooling during the EOT and linked to declining pCO2. However, the earliest Oligocene climate rebound along eastern Tasmania is linked to a transient recovery of atmospheric pCO2 and sustained deepening of the Tasmanian Gateway, promoting PLC throughflow. The three main climate transitional events across the studied interval (late Eocene-earliest Oligocene) in the Tasmanian Gateway region suggest that changes in ocean circulation due to accelerated deepening of the Tasmanian Gateway may not have been solely responsible for the changes in terrestrial climate and vegetation dynamics; a series of regional and global events, including a change in the stratification of water masses, sequestration of carbon from surface waters, and changes in pCO2, may have also played vital roles.

Considered as one of the most significant climate reorganisations of the Cenozoic period, the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT; ca. 34.44–33.65) is characterised by global cooling and the first major glacial advance on Antarctica. While in the southern high-latitudes, the EOT cooling is primarily recorded in the marine realm, the extent and effect on terrestrial climate and vegetation is poorly documented. Here, we present a new, well-dated, continuous, high-resolution palynological (sporomorph) data and quantitative sporomorph-based climate estimates recovered from the East Tasman Plateau (ODP Site 1172) to reconstruct climate and vegetation dynamics from the late Eocene (37.97 Ma) to early Oligocene (33.06 Ma). Our results indicate three major climate transitions and four vegetation communities occupying Tasmania under different precipitation and temperature regimes: (i) a warm-temperate Nothofagus-Podocarpaceae dominated rainforest with paratropical elements from 37.97–37.52 Ma; (ii) cool-temperate Nothofagus dominated rainforest with secondary Podocarpaceae rapidly expanding and taking over regions previously occupied by the warmer taxa between 37.306–35.60 Ma; (iii) fluctuation between warm temperate – paratropical taxa and cool temperate forest from 35.50–34.49 Ma, followed by a cool phase across the EOT (34.30–33.82 Ma); (iv) post-EOT (earliest Oligocene) recovery characterised by a warm-temperate forest association from 33.55–33.06 Ma. Coincident with changes in stratification of water masses and sequestration of carbon from surface water in the Southern Ocean, our sporomorph-based temperature estimates between 37.52 Ma and 35.60 Ma (phase ii) showed 2–3 °C terrestrial cooling. The unusual fluctuation between warm and cold temperate forest between 35.50 to 34.59 Ma is suggested to be linked to the initial deepening of the Tasmanian Gateway allowing eastern Tasmania to come under the influence of warm water associated with the proto-Leeuwin Current (PLC). Further to the above, our terrestrial data show mean annual temperature declining by about 2 °C across the EOT before recovering in the earliest Oligocene. This phenomenon is synchronous with regional and global cooling during the EOT and linked to declining pCO2. However, the earliest Oligocene climate rebound along eastern Tasmania is linked to transient recovery of atmospheric pCO2 and sustained deepening of the Tasmanian Gateway, promoting PLC throughflow. The three main climate transitional events across the studied interval (late Eocene–earliest Oligocene) in the Tasmanian Gateway region suggest that changes in ocean circulation due to accelerated deepening of the Tasmanian Gateway may not have been solely responsible for the changes in terrestrial climate and vegetation dynamics, but a series of regional and global events, including a change in stratification of water masses, sequestration of carbon from surface waters, and changes in pCO2 may have played vital roles.

Nick Thompson received funding from the Natural Environment Research Council from a NERC-funded Doctoral Training Partnership ONE Planet (grant no. NE/S007512/1). Funding for this research was also provided by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant nos. CTM2014-60451-C2- 1/2-P and CTM2017-89711-C2-1/2-P) cofunded by the European Union through FEDER funds. Peter K. Bijl received funding from the European Research Council (OceaNice (grant no. 802835))., This work used Deep Sea Drilling Project archived samples provided by the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP). We thank the staff at the Gulf Coast core repository (GCR) for assistance in ODP Leg 113 core handling and shipping. We thank CNRS for the salary support of MAS, The role and climatic impact of the opening of the Drake Passage and how it affected both marine and terrestrial environments across the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT ∼34 Ma) period remains poorly understood. Here we present new terrestrial palynomorph data compared with recently compiled lipid biomarker (n-alkane) data from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 113, Site 696, drilled on the margin of the South Orkney Microcontinent (SOM) in the Weddell Sea, to investigate changes in terrestrial environments and palaeoclimate across the late Eocene and early Oligocene (∼37.6-32.2 Ma). Early late Eocene floras and sporomorph-based climate estimates reveal Nothofagus-dominated forests growing under wet temperate conditions, with mean annual temperature (MAT) and precipitation (MAP) around 12 C and 1802 mm respectively. A phase of latest Eocene terrestrial cooling at 35.5 Ma reveals a decrease in MAT by around 1.4 C possibly linked to the opening of the Powell Basin. This is followed by an increase in reworked Mesozoic sporomorphs together with sedimentological evidence indicating ice expansion to coastal and shelf areas approximately 34.1 Myr ago. However, major changes to the terrestrial vegetation at Site 696 did not take place until the early Oligocene, where there is a distinct expansion of gymnosperms and cryptogams accompanied by a rapid increase in taxon diversity and a shift in terrestrial biomarkers reflecting a change from temperate forests to cool temperate forests following 33.5 Ma. This surprising expansion of gymnosperms and cryptogams is suggested to be linked to environmental disturbance caused by repeat glacial expansion and retreat, which facilitated the proliferation of conifers and ferns. The timing of glacial onset at Site 696 is linked to the global cooling at the EOT, yet the latest Eocene regional cooling cannot directly be linked to the observed vegetation changes. Therefore, our vegetation record provides further evidence that the opening of the Drake Passage and Antarctic glaciation were not contemporaneous, although stepwise cooling in response to the opening of ocean gateways surrounding the Antarctic continent may have occurred prior to the EOT., NERC-funded NE/S007512/1, Natural Environment Research Council, European Commission, European Research Council 802835, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación CTM2014-60451-C2- 1/2-P, CTM2017-89711-C2-1/2-P, European Regional Development Fund