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Habitat anthropization is a major driver of global biodiversity decline. Although most species are negatively affected, some benefit from anthropogenic habitat modifications by showing intriguing life-history responses. For instance, increased recruitment through higher allocation to reproduction or improved performance during early-life stages could compensate for reduced adult survival, corresponding to “compensatory recruitment”. To date, evidence of compensatory recruitment in response to habitat modification is restricted to plants, limiting understanding of its importance as a response to global change. We used the yellow-bellied toad ( Bombina variegata ), an amphibian occupying a broad range of natural and anthropogenic habitats, as a model species to test for and to quantify compensatory recruitment. Using an exceptional capture–recapture dataset composed of 21,714 individuals from 67 populations across Europe, we showed that adult survival was lower, lifespan was shorter, and actuarial senescence was higher in anthropogenic habitats, especially those affected by intense human activities. Increased recruitment in anthropogenic habitats fully offset reductions in adult survival, with the consequence that population growth rate in both habitat types was similar. Our findings indicate that compensatory recruitment allows toad populations to remain viable in human-dominated habitats and might facilitate the persistence of other animal populations in such environments.

The use of individual phenotypic features as non-invasive marks through photo-identification (photo-ID) has many advantages for individual-based field studies. However, since error rates vary between species, matching techniques, and image qualities, it is important to assess error rates to evaluate the reliability of photo-ID. We tested the performance of this method in the Pacific Horned Frog, Ceratophrys stolzmanni, a threatened anuran with a variable dorsal coloration. We compared the effectiveness of visual (i.e. human recognition) versus software-assisted recognition techniques (Wild-ID and APHIS), and assessed the potential applicability of these techniques to identify post-metamorphic individuals (froglets). The three techniques differed in their performance. The visual technique was the only one to produce type I errors between pairs of images (i.e. matching images which are not true matching pairs), however it also produced fewer type II errors (i.e. not identifying true matching pairs of images) than the software-assisted techniques. For froglets, we found that similarity scores calculated by photo-ID software did not differ significantly between groups of froglets and older individuals, supporting the idea that colour patterns in this species remain stable after metamorphosis. The lack of type I errors and the substantial reduction in required time achieved through the use of software, make software-assisted techniques (particularly Wild-ID) a valid and convenient matching technique for C. stolzmanni. We propose that photo-ID can also be applied to froglets of this species, since the pattern at this stage appears to be as variable as in adults and maintained through life.

Species monitoring plays an important role in determining whether conservation targets are being met. However, monitoring programs can be costly and logistically demanding. When site characteristics are strongly linked to species’ status, managers may instead choose to monitor the site characteristics themselves as a surrogate of species status. In this study, we modelled the occupancy status and abundance of pond-breeding amphibians in a network of protected areas across Switzerland. We incorporated remotely-sensed data describing habitat within breeding sites in order to identify any characteristics which could act as monitoring surrogates for amphibian species’ status. We found that connectivity between amphibian breeding sites was an important predictor of occupancy patterns for all species, but that abundance patterns were poorly predicted. Despite expectations that the habitat characteristics assessed from aerial images were important for the species studied, we found that these variables were rarely strong predictors of occupancy patterns. These results highlight the importance of caution in identifying species monitoring surrogates, and the need to explicitly demonstrate strong relationships between surrogates and state variables of interest before surrogates are used.

Life‐history theory states that, during the lifetime of an individual, resources are allocated to either somatic maintenance or reproduction. Resource allocation tradeoffs determine the evolution and ecology of life‐history strategies and determine an organisms’ position along the fast–slow continuum. Theory predicts that environmental stochasticity is an important driver of resource allocation and therefore life‐history evolution. Highly stochastic environments are expected to increase uncertainty in reproductive success and select for iteroparity and a slowing down of the life history. To date, most empirical studies have used comparisons among species to examine these theoretical predictions. By contrast, few have investigated how environmental stochasticity affects life‐history strategies at the intraspecific level. In this study, we examined how variation in breeding site stochasticity (among‐year variability in pond volume and hydroperiod) promotes the co‐occurrence of different life‐history strategies in a spatially structured population, and determines life‐history position along the fast–slow continuum in the yellow‐bellied toad Bombina variegata. We collected mark–recapture data from a metapopulation and used multievent capture–recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment and breeding probabilities. We found higher survival and longer lifespans in populations inhabiting variable sites compared to those breeding in stable ones. In addition, probabilities of recruitment and skipping a breeding event were higher in variable sites. The temporal variance of survival and recruitment probabilities, as well as the probability to skip breeding, was higher in variable sites. Taken together, these findings indicate that populations breeding in variable sites experienced a slowing down of the life‐history. Our study thus revealed similarities in the macroevolutionary and microevolutionary processes shaping life‐history evolution.

Conservation science can be most effective in its decision-support role when seeking answers to clearly formulated questions of direct management relevance. Emerging wildlife diseases, a driver of global biodiversity loss, illustrate the challenges of performing this role: in spite of considerable research, successful disease mitigation is uncommon. Decision analysis is increasingly advocated to guide mitigation planning, but its application remains rare. Using an integral projection model, we explored potential mitigation actions for avoiding population declines and the ongoing spatial spread of the fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). This fungus has recently caused severe amphibian declines in north-western Europe and currently threatens Palearctic salamander diversity. Available evidence suggests that a Bsal outbreak in a fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population will lead to its rapid extirpation. Treatments such as antifungals or probiotics would need to effectively interrupt transmission (reduce probability of infection by nearly 90%) in order to reduce the risk of host extirpation and successfully eradicate the pathogen. Improving the survival of infected hosts is most likely to be detrimental as it increases the potential for pathogen transmission and spread. Active removal of a large proportion of the host population has some potential to locally eradicate Bsal and interrupt its spread, depending on the presence of Bsal reservoirs and on the host's spatial dynamics, which should therefore represent research priorities. Synthesis and applications. Mitigation of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans epidemics in susceptible host species is highly challenging, requiring effective interruption of transmission and radical removal of host individuals. More generally, our study illustrates the advantages of framing conservation science directly in the management decision context, rather than adapting to it a posteriori.

Photographic capture-mark-recapture (CMR) permits individual recognition whilst avoiding many of the concerns involved with marking animals. However, the construction of capture histories from photographs is a time-consuming process. Furthermore, matching accuracy is determined based on subjective judgements of the person carrying out the matching, which can lead to errors in the resulting datasets – particularly in long-term projects where multiple observers match images. We asked 63 volunteers to carry out two photographic-matching exercises using a database of known individuals of the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata). From these exercises, we quantified the matching accuracy of volunteers in terms of false-acceptance and false-rejection rates. Not only were error rates greatly reduced with the use of photographic-matching software, but variation in error rates among volunteers was also lowered. Furthermore, the use of matching software led to substantial increases in matching speeds and an 87% reduction in the false-rejection rate. As even small error rates have the potential to bias CMR analyses, these results suggest that computer software could substantially reduce errors in CMR datasets. The time-savings and reduction in variance among observers suggest that such methods could be particularly beneficial in long-term CMR projects where a large number of images may be matched by multiple observers.

Data collected by volunteers are an important source of information used in species management decisions, yet concerns are often raised over the quality of such data. Two major forms of error exist in occupancy datasets; failing to observe a species when present (imperfect detection—also known as false negatives), and falsely reporting a species as present (false‐positive errors). Estimating these rates allows us to quantify volunteer data quality, and may prevent the inference of erroneous trends. We use a new parameterization of a dynamic occupancy model to estimate and adjust for false‐negative and false‐positive errors, producing accurate estimates of occupancy. We validated this model using simulations and applied it to 12 species datasets collected from a 15‐year, large‐scale volunteer amphibian monitoring program. False‐positive rates were low for most, but not all, species, and accounting for these errors led to quantitative differences in occupancy, although trends remained consistent even when these effects were ignored. We present a model that represents an intuitive way of quantifying the quality of volunteer monitoring datasets, and which can produce unbiased estimates of occupancy despite the presence of multiple types of observation error. Importantly, this allows the quality of volunteer monitoring data to be assessed without relying on comparisons with expert data.

Life-history theory states that, during the lifetime of an individual, resources are allocated to either somatic maintenance or reproduction. Resource allocation trade-offs determine the evolution and ecology of life-history strategies and determine an organism position along the fast-slow continuum. Theory predicts that environmental stochasticity is an important driver of resource allocation and therefore life-history evolution. Highly stochastic environments are expected to increase uncertainty in reproductive success and select for iteroparity and a slowing down of the life history. To date, most empirical studies have used comparisons among species to examine these theoretical predictions. By contrast, few have investigated how environmental stochasticity affects life-history strategies at the intraspecific level. In this study, we examined how variation in breeding site stochasticity (among-year variability in pond volume and hydroperiod) promotes the co-occurrence of different life-history strategies in a spatially structured population, and determines life-history position along the fast-slow continuum in the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata). We collected mark-recapture data from a metapopulation and used multievent capture-recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment and breeding probabilities. We found higher survival and longer lifespans in populations inhabiting variable sites compared to those breeding in stable ones. In addition, probabilities of recruitment and skipping a breeding event were higher in variable sites. The temporal variance of survival and recruitment probabilities as well as the probability to skip breeding was higher in variable sites. Taken together, these findings indicate that populations breeding in variable sites experienced a slowing down of the life-history. Our study thus revealed similarities in the macroevolutionary and microevolutionary processes shaping life-history evolution.

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy-modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red-list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence-only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.

Changing climate will impact species' ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness. John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis - US Geological Survey U.S. Geological Survey-Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Park Service U.S. Forest Service National Science Foundation [DEB-0841758, DEB-1149308] National Institutes of Health [R01GM109499] National Geographic Society Morris Animal Foundation David and Lucille Packard Foundation This work was conducted as part of the Amphibian Decline Working Group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the US Geological Survey. Funding and logistical support for field data collection came from a range of sources including the U.S. Geological Survey-Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, National Science Foundation (DEB-0841758, DEB-1149308), National Institutes of Health (R01GM109499), National Geographic Society, Morris Animal Foundation, and David and Lucille Packard Foundation. Data are deposited at the U.S. Geological Survey's John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis. This manuscript is contribution 654 of USGS ARMI. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Since amphibian declines were first proposed as a global phenomenon over a quarter century ago, the conservation community has made little progress in halting or reversing these trends. The early search for a "smoking gun" was replaced with the expectation that declines are caused by multiple drivers. While field observations and experiments have identified factors leading to increased local extinction risk, evidence for effects of these drivers is lacking at large spatial scales. Here, we use observations of 389 time-series of 83 species and complexes from 61 study areas across North America to test the effects of 4 of the major hypothesized drivers of declines. While we find that local amphibian populations are being lost from metapopulations at an average rate of 3.79% per year, these declines are not related to any particular threat at the continental scale; likewise the effect of each stressor is variable at regional scales. This result - that exposure to threats varies spatially, and populations vary in their response - provides little generality in the development of conservation strategies. Greater emphasis on local solutions to this globally shared phenomenon is needed. US Geological Survey This work was conducted as part of the Amphibian Decline Working Group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the US Geological Survey. Data deposited at the US Geological Survey's John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis. The authors declare no competing financial interests. This manuscript is contribution #541 of the USGS Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Comments from D. Hocking, P. Toschik and three anonymous reviewers improved the manuscript.

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy-modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red-list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence-only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.