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The implications of the AlphaFold2 protein structure-modelling software for crystallographic phasing strategies are discussed., The AlphaFold2 results in the 14th edition of Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP14) showed that accurate (low root-mean-square deviation) in silico models of protein structure domains are on the horizon, whether or not the protein is related to known structures through high-coverage sequence similarity. As highly accurate models become available, generated by harnessing the power of correlated mutations and deep learning, one of the aspects of structural biology to be impacted will be methods of phasing in crystallography. Here, the data from CASP14 are used to explore the prospects for changes in phasing methods, and in particular to explore the prospects for molecular-replacement phasing using in silico models.

Diffraction (X-ray, neutron and electron) and electron cryo-microscopy are powerful methods to determine three-dimensional macromolecular structures, which are required to understand biological processes and to develop new therapeutics against diseases. The overall structure-solution workflow is similar for these techniques, but nuances exist because the properties of the reduced experimental data are different. Software tools for structure determination should therefore be tailored for each method. Phenix is a comprehensive software package for macromolecular structure determination that handles data from any of these techniques. Tasks performed with Phenix include data-quality assessment, map improvement, model building, the validation/rebuilding/refinement cycle and deposition. Each tool caters to the type of experimental data. The design of Phenix emphasizes the automation of procedures, where possible, to minimize repetitive and time-consuming manual tasks, while default parameters are chosen to encourage best practice. A graphical user interface provides access to many command-line features of Phenix and streamlines the transition between programs, project tracking and re-running of previous tasks.

Funder: CCP4, Funder: Max‐Planck‐Gesellschaft; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004189, The assessment of CASP models for utility in molecular replacement is a measure of their use in a valuable real‐world application. In CASP7, the metric for molecular replacement assessment involved full likelihood‐based molecular replacement searches; however, this restricted the assessable targets to crystal structures with only one copy of the target in the asymmetric unit, and to those where the search found the correct pose. In CASP10, full molecular replacement searches were replaced by likelihood‐based rigid‐body refinement of models superimposed on the target using the LGA algorithm, with the metric being the refined log‐likelihood‐gain (LLG) score. This enabled multi‐copy targets and very poor models to be evaluated, but a significant further issue remained: the requirement of diffraction data for assessment. We introduce here the relative‐expected‐LLG (reLLG), which is independent of diffraction data. This reLLG is also independent of any crystal form, and can be calculated regardless of the source of the target, be it X‐ray, NMR or cryo‐EM. We calibrate the reLLG against the LLG for targets in CASP14, showing that it is a robust measure of both model and group ranking. Like the LLG, the reLLG shows that accurate coordinate error estimates add substantial value to predicted models. We find that refinement by CASP groups can often convert an inadequate initial model into a successful MR search model. Consistent with findings from others, we show that the AlphaFold2 models are sufficiently good, and reliably so, to surpass other current model generation strategies for attempting molecular replacement phasing.

11 pags., 5 figs., 3 tabs, Structure predictions have matched the accuracy of experimental structures from close homologues, providing suitable models for molecular replacement phasing. Even in predictions that present large differences due to the relative movement of domains or poorly predicted areas, very accurate regions tend to be present. These are suitable for successful fragment-based phasing as implemented in ARCIMBOLDO. The particularities of predicted models are inherently addressed in the new predicted_model mode, rendering preliminary treatment superfluous but also harmless. B-value conversion from predicted LDDT or error estimates, the removal of unstructured polypeptide, hierarchical decomposition of structural units from domains to local folds and systematically probing the model against the experimental data will ensure the optimal use of the model in phasing. Concomitantly, the exhaustive use of models and stereochemistry in phasing, refinement and validation raises the concern of crystallographic model bias and the need to critically establish the information contributed by the experiment. Therefore, in its predicted_model mode ARCIMBOLDO_SHREDDER will first determine whether the input model already constitutes a solution or provides a straightforward solution with Phaser. If not, extracted fragments will be located. If the landscape of solutions reveals numerous, clearly discriminated and consistent probes or if the input model already constitutes a solution, model-free verification will be activated. Expansions with SHELXE will omit the partial solution seeding phases and all traces outside their respective masks will be combined in ALIXE, as far as consistent. This procedure completely eliminates the molecular replacement search model in favour of the inferences derived from this model. In the case of fragments, an incorrect starting hypothesis impedes expansion. The predicted_model mode has been tested in different scenarios., We are grateful to the Spanish MICINN/AEI/FEDER/UE for support through the PGC2018-101370-B-100 project to IU, PID2020-115331GB-I00 to JH, a scholarship (PRE2019-087953) to EJ and a scholarship (BES-2017-080368) associated with the Structural Biology Maria de Maeztu Unit of Excellence (MDM2014-0435-01) to AM. Support from STFC-UK/ CCP4 ‘Agreement for the integration of methods into the CCP4 software distribution, ARCIMBOLDO_LOW’ is gratefully acknowledged.

Performance in the model refinement category of the 13th round of Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP13) is assessed, showing that some groups consistently improve most starting models whereas the majority of participants continue to degrade the starting model on average. Using the ranking formula developed for CASP12, it is shown that only 7 of 32 groups perform better than a "naive predictor" who just submits the starting model. Common features in their approaches include a dependence on physics-based force fields to judge alternative conformations and the use of molecular dynamics to relax models to local minima, usually with some restraints to prevent excessively large movements. In addition to the traditional CASP metrics that focus largely on the quality of the overall fold, alternative metrics are evaluated, including comparisons of the main-chain and side-chain torsion angles, and the utility of the models for solving crystal structures by the molecular replacement method. It is proposed that the introduction of these metrics, as well as consideration of the accuracy of coordinate error estimates, would improve the discrimination between good and very good models.