Suzanne Hodgkinson, Patrizia Sola, Jose Luis Sanchez-Menoyo, Mark Slee, Vahid Shaygannejad, Alexandre Prat, Jeannette Lechner-Scott, Lukas Sobisek, Raymond Hupperts, Vincent Van Pesch, Cristina Ramo-Tello, Csilla Rozsa, Guillermo Izquierdo, Helmut Butzkueven, Fraser Moore, Pamela A. McCombe, Maria Laura Saladino, Murat Terzi, Vilija Jokubaitis, Cavit Boz, Eugenio Pucci, Raed Alroughani, Shlomo Flechter, Pierre Grammond, Roberto Bergamaschi, G. Iuliano, Daniele Spitaleri, Francois Grand'Maison, Ali Manouchehrinia, Pierre Duquette, Tomas Kalincik, Marc Girard, Radek Ampapa, Michael Barnett, Jan Hillert, Freek Verheul, Maria Trojano, Franco Granella, Edgardo Cristiano, Maria Pia Amato, Dana Horakova, Alessandra Lugaresi, Celia Oreja-Guevara, Steve Vucic, Eva Havrdova, Tim Spelman, Javier Olascoaga, Kalincik, Toma, Manouchehrinia, Ali, Sobisek, Luka, Jokubaitis, Vilija, Spelman, Tim, Horakova, Dana, Havrdova, Eva, Trojano, Maria, Izquierdo, Guillermo, Lugaresi, Alessandra, Girard, Marc, Prat, Alexandre, Duquette, Pierre, Grammond, Pierre, Sola, Patrizia, Hupperts, Raymond, Grand'Maison, Francoi, Pucci, Eugenio, Boz, Cavit, Alroughani, Raed, Van Pesch, Vincent, Lechner-scott, Jeannette, Terzi, Murat, Bergamaschi, Roberto, Iuliano, Gerardo, Granella, Franco, Spitaleri, Daniele, Shaygannejad, Vahid, Oreja-guevara, Celia, Slee, Mark, Ampapa, Radek, Verheul, Freek, Mccombe, Pamela, Olascoaga, Javier, Amato, Maria Pia, Vucic, Steve, Hodgkinson, Suzanne, Ramo-tello, Cristina, Flechter, Shlomo, Cristiano, Edgardo, Rozsa, Csilla, Moore, Fraser, Sanchez-menoyo, Jose Lui, Saladino, Maria Laura, Barnett, Michael, Hillert, Jan, Butzkueven, Helmut, DIPARTIMENTO DI SCIENZE BIOMEDICHE E NEUROMOTORIE, OMÜ, [Kalincik, Tomas] Univ Melbourne, CORE, Dept Med, 300 Grattan St, Melbourne, Vic 3050, Australia, [Kalincik, Tomas] Royal Melbourne Hosp, Dept Neurol, 300 Grattan St, Melbourne, Vic 3050, Australia, [Jokubaitis, Vilija] Royal Melbourne Hosp, Dept Neurol, 300 Grattan St, Melbourne, Vic 3050, Australia, [Spelman, Tim] Royal Melbourne Hosp, Dept Neurol, 300 Grattan St, Melbourne, Vic 3050, Australia, [Manouchehrinia, Ali] Karolinska Inst, Dept Clin Neurosci, SE-17177 Stockholm, Sweden, [Sobisek, Lukas] Gen Univ Hosp, Dept Neurol, Katerinska 30, Prague 12808, Czech Republic, [Horakova, Dana] Gen Univ Hosp, Dept Neurol, Katerinska 30, Prague 12808, Czech Republic, [Havrdova, Eva] Gen Univ Hosp, Dept Neurol, Katerinska 30, Prague 12808, Czech Republic, [Sobisek, Lukas] Gen Univ Hosp, Ctr Clin Neurosci, Katerinska 30, Prague 12808, Czech Republic, [Horakova, Dana] Gen Univ Hosp, Ctr Clin Neurosci, Katerinska 30, Prague 12808, Czech Republic, [Havrdova, Eva] Gen Univ Hosp, Ctr Clin Neurosci, Katerinska 30, Prague 12808, Czech Republic, [Sobisek, Lukas] Charles Univ Prague, Katerinska 30, Prague 12808, Czech Republic, [Horakova, Dana] Charles Univ Prague, Katerinska 30, Prague 12808, Czech Republic, [Havrdova, Eva] Charles Univ Prague, Katerinska 30, Prague 12808, Czech Republic, [Sobisek, Lukas] Univ Econ Prague, Dept Stat & Probabil, Winston Churchill Sq 1938-4, Prague 13067, Czech Republic, [Jokubaitis, Vilija] Univ Melbourne, Dept Med, 300 Grattan St, Melbourne, Vic 3050, Australia, [Spelman, Tim] Univ Melbourne, Dept Med, 300 Grattan St, Melbourne, Vic 3050, Australia, [Trojano, Maria] Univ Bari, Via Calefati 53, I-70122 Bari, Italy, [Izquierdo, Guillermo] Hosp Univ Virgen Macarena, Amador De Los Rios 48-50 4a, Seville 41003, Spain, [Lugaresi, Alessandra] Univ G DAnnunzio, Dept Neurosci Imaging & Clin Sci, Via Vestini, I-66100 Chieti, Italy, [Lugaresi, Alessandra] Univ Bologna, Dept Biomed & Neuromotor Sci, Via Vestini, I-66100 Bologna, Italy, [Girard, Marc] Hop Notre Dame De Bon Secours, 1560 Sherbrooke East, Montreal, PQ H2L 4M1, Canada, [Prat, Alexandre] Hop Notre Dame De Bon Secours, 1560 Sherbrooke East, Montreal, PQ H2L 4M1, Canada, [Duquette, Pierre] Hop Notre Dame De Bon Secours, 1560 Sherbrooke East, Montreal, PQ H2L 4M1, Canada, [Girard, Marc] CHUM, Montreal, PQ, Canada, [Prat, Alexandre] CHUM, Montreal, PQ, Canada, [Duquette, Pierre] CHUM, Montreal, PQ, Canada, [Girard, Marc] Univ Montreal, Montreal, PQ, Canada, [Prat, Alexandre] Univ Montreal, Montreal, PQ, Canada, [Duquette, Pierre] Univ Montreal, Montreal, PQ, Canada, [Grammond, Pierre] Univ Montreal, Montreal, PQ, Canada, [Grammond, Pierre] Ctr Readaptat Deficience Phys Chaudiere Appalache, 9500 Blvd Ctr Hosp, Levis, AB G6X 0A1, Canada, [Sola, Patrizia] Nuovo Osped Civile St Agostino Estense, Via Giardini 1355, I-41100 Modena, Italy, [Hupperts, Raymond] Zuyderland Ziekenhuis, Walramstr 23, NL-6131 BK Sittard, Netherlands, [Grand'Maison, Francois] Neuro Rive Sud, 4896 Boul Taschereau,Suite 250, Greenfield Pk, PQ J4V 2J2, Canada, [Pucci, Eugenio] Azienda Sanitaria Unica Reg Marche AV3, Via Santa Lucia 2, I-62100 Macerata, Italy, [Boz, Cavit] Karadeniz Tech Univ, Farabi Hosp, Med Fac, TR-61080 Trabzon, Turkey, [Alroughani, Raed] Amiri Hosp, POB 1661, Kuwait 73767, Kuwait, [Van Pesch, Vincent] Clin Univ St Luc, Ave Hippocrate,10 UCL10-80, BXL-1200 Brussels, Belgium, [Lechner-Scott, Jeannette] Univ Newcastle, Lookout Rd, Newcastle, NSW 2305, Australia, [Terzi, Murat] Ondokuz Mayis Univ, Fac Med, TR-55160 Kurupelit, Turkey, [Bergamaschi, Roberto] C Mondino Natl Neurol Inst, Via Mondino 2, I-27100 Pavia, Italy, [Iuliano, Gerardo] Osped Riuniti Salerno, Via S Leonardo, I-84100 Salerno, Italy, [Granella, Franco] Univ Parma, Via Gramsci 14, I-43100 Parma, Italy, [Spitaleri, Daniele] Azienda Osped Rilievo Nazl San Giuseppe Moscati A, I-83100 Avellino, Italy, [Shaygannejad, Vahid] Isfahan Univ Med Sci, Soffeh St, Esfahan 81744, Iran, [Oreja-Guevara, Celia] Hosp Univ La Paz, Paseo Castellana 261, Madrid 28050, Spain, [Slee, Mark] Flinders Med Ctr, Flinders Dr, Adelaide, SA 5042, Australia, [Ampapa, Radek] Nemocnice Jihlava, Vrchlickeho 59, Jihlava 58633, Czech Republic, [Verheul, Freek] Groene Hart Ziekenhuis, Bleulandweg 10, NL-2800 BB Gouda, Netherlands, [McCombe, Pamela] Royal Brisbane & Womens Hosp, 33 North St, Spring Hill, Qld 4000, Australia, [Olascoaga, Javier] Hosp Donostia, Paseo Begiristain, San Sebastian 20014, Spain, [Amato, Maria Pia] Univ Florence, Viale Morgagni 85, I-50134 Florence, Italy, [Vucic, Steve] Westmead Hosp, Hawkesbury Rd, Sydney, NSW 2145, Australia, [Hodgkinson, Suzanne] Liverpool Hosp, Elizabeth St,21, Liverpool, SA, Australia, [Ramo-Tello, Cristina] Hosp Germans Trias i Pujol, Crtra Canyet S-N, Badalona 8916, Spain, [Flechter, Shlomo] Assaf Harofeh Med Ctr, IL-70100 Zerifin, Israel, [Cristiano, Edgardo] Hosp Italiano Buenos Aires, Guise 1870, RA-1425 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina, [Rozsa, Csilla] Jahn Ferenc Teaching Hosp, Koves 1, H-1101 Budapest, Hungary, [Moore, Fraser] Jewish Gen Hosp, 3755 Cote St Catherine, Montreal, PQ J7A 4T8, Canada, [Luis Sanchez-Menoyo, Jose] Hosp Galdakao Usansolo, Barrio Labeaga S-N, Galdakao 48660, Spain, [Laura Saladino, Maria] INEBA Inst Neurosci Buenos Aires, Guardia Vieja 4435,C1192AAW, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina, [Hillert, Jan] Univ Sydney, Brain & Mind Ctr, 100 Mallett, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia, [Butzkueven, Helmut] Monash Univ, Box Hill Hosp, Dept Neurol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia, National Health and Medical Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council (centre for research excellence), University of Melbourne (Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences research fellowship), Biogen, Novartis, Merck, Roche, Teva, Sanofi Genzyme, Klinische Neurowetenschappen, MUMC+: MA Med Staf Spec Neurologie (9), and RS: MHeNs - R1 - Cognitive Neuropsychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience
none 47 si Timely initiation of effective therapy is crucial for preventing disability in multiple sclerosis; however, treatment response varies greatly among patients. Comprehensive predictive models of individual treatment response are lacking. Our aims were: (i) to develop predictive algorithms for individual treatment response using demographic, clinical and paraclinical predictors in patients with multiple sclerosis; and (ii) to evaluate accuracy, and internal and external validity of these algorithms. This study evaluated 27 demographic, clinical and paraclinical predictors of individual response to seven disease-modifying therapies in MSBase, a large global cohort study. Treatment response was analysed separately for disability progression, disability regression, relapse frequency, conversion to secondary progressive disease, change in the cumulative disease burden, and the probability of treatment discontinuation. Multivariable survival and generalized linear models were used, together with the principal component analysis to reduce model dimensionality and prevent overparameterization. Accuracy of the individual prediction was tested and its internal validity was evaluated in a separate, non-overlapping cohort. External validity was evaluated in a geographically distinct cohort, the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. In the training cohort (n = 8513), the most prominent modifiers of treatment response comprised age, disease duration, disease course, previous relapse activity, disability, predominant relapse phenotype and previous therapy. Importantly, the magnitude and direction of the associations varied among therapies and disease outcomes. Higher probability of disability progression during treatment with injectable therapies was predominantly associated with a greater disability at treatment start and the previous therapy. For fingolimod, natalizumab or mitoxantrone, it was mainly associated with lower pretreatment relapse activity. The probability of disability regression was predominantly associated with pre-baseline disability, therapy and relapse activity. Relapse incidence was associated with pretreatment relapse activity, age and relapsing disease course, with the strength of these associations varying among therapies. Accuracy and internal validity (n = 1196) of the resulting predictive models was high (480%) for relapse incidence during the first year and for disability outcomes, moderate for relapse incidence in Years 2-4 and for the change in the cumulative disease burden, and low for conversion to secondary progressive disease and treatment discontinuation. External validation showed similar results, demonstrating high external validity for disability and relapse outcomes, moderate external validity for cumulative disease burden and low external validity for conversion to secondary progressive disease and treatment discontinuation. We conclude that demographic, clinical and paraclinical information helps predict individual response to disease-modifying therapies at the time of their commencement. none Kalincik, Tomas; Manouchehrinia, Ali; Sobisek, Lukas; Jokubaitis, Vilija; Spelman, Tim; Horakova, Dana; Havrdova, Eva; Trojano, Maria; Izquierdo, Guillermo; Lugaresi, Alessandra; Girard, Marc; Prat, Alexandre; Duquette, Pierre; Grammond, Pierre; Sola, Patrizia; Hupperts, Raymond; Grand'Maison, Francois; Pucci, Eugenio; Boz, Cavit; Alroughani, Raed; Van Pesch, Vincent; Lechner-scott, Jeannette; Terzi, Murat; Bergamaschi, Roberto; Iuliano, Gerardo; Granella, Franco; Spitaleri, Daniele; Shaygannejad, Vahid; Oreja-guevara, Celia; Slee, Mark; Ampapa, Radek; Verheul, Freek; Mccombe, Pamela; Olascoaga, Javier; Amato, Maria Pia; Vucic, Steve; Hodgkinson, Suzanne; Ramo-tello, Cristina; Flechter, Shlomo; Cristiano, Edgardo; Rozsa, Csilla; Moore, Fraser; Sanchez-menoyo, Jose Luis; Saladino, Maria Laura; Barnett, Michael; Hillert, Jan; Butzkueven, Helmut Kalincik, Tomas; Manouchehrinia, Ali; Sobisek, Lukas; Jokubaitis, Vilija; Spelman, Tim; Horakova, Dana; Havrdova, Eva; Trojano, Maria; Izquierdo, Guillermo; Lugaresi, Alessandra; Girard, Marc; Prat, Alexandre; Duquette, Pierre; Grammond, Pierre; Sola, Patrizia; Hupperts, Raymond; Grand'Maison, Francois; Pucci, Eugenio; Boz, Cavit; Alroughani, Raed; Van Pesch, Vincent; Lechner-scott, Jeannette; Terzi, Murat; Bergamaschi, Roberto; Iuliano, Gerardo; Granella, Franco; Spitaleri, Daniele; Shaygannejad, Vahid; Oreja-guevara, Celia; Slee, Mark; Ampapa, Radek; Verheul, Freek; Mccombe, Pamela; Olascoaga, Javier; Amato, Maria Pia; Vucic, Steve; Hodgkinson, Suzanne; Ramo-tello, Cristina; Flechter, Shlomo; Cristiano, Edgardo; Rozsa, Csilla; Moore, Fraser; Sanchez-menoyo, Jose Luis; Saladino, Maria Laura; Barnett, Michael; Hillert, Jan; Butzkueven, Helmut