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This paper develops the concept of flood problem framing to understand decision-makers’ priorities in flood risk management in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region in California (LA Metro). Problem frames shape an individual’s preferences for particular management strategies and their future behaviors. While flooding is a complex, multifaceted problem, with multiple causes and multiple impacts, a decision-maker is most likely to manage only those dimensions of flooding about which they are aware or concerned. To evaluate flood decision-makers’ primary concerns related to flood exposure, vulnerability, and management in the LA Metro, we draw on focus groups with flood control districts, city planners, nonprofit organizations, and other flood-related decision-makers. We identify numerous concerns, including concerns about specific types of floods (e.g., fluvial vs pluvial) and impacts to diverse infrastructure and communities. Our analyses demonstrate that flood concerns aggregate into three problem frames: one concerned with large fluvial floods exacerbated by climate change and their housing, economic, and infrastructure impacts; one concerned with pluvial nuisance flooding, pollution, and historic underinvestment in communities; and one concerned with coastal and fluvial flooding’s ecosystem impacts. While each individual typically articulated concerns that overlapped with only one problem frame, each problem frame was discussed by numerous organization types, suggesting low barriers to cross-organizational coordination in flood planning and response. This paper also advances our understanding of flood risk perception in a region that does not face frequent large floods.

Flood and debris hazards are heightened following wildfires, but are challenging to quantify due to interdependence between fire frequency and severity, runoff and sediment fluxes during storms, and sedimentation that reduces infrastructure capacity. Herein we present a stochastic simulation framework to estimate compound flood and debris hazards from sequences of wildfires and rainstorms and the accumulation of sediment within flood infrastructure. Application of the framework to a hypothetical watershed representative of southern California shows that the present-day compound hazard may be up to 6 times greater than the marginal hazard posed by peak flows in the absence of wildfire, and that future compound hazards could be up to 11 times greater than the marginal hazard based on future increases in wildfire frequency. Numerous sensitivities are investigated, including infrastructure design and maintenance, which are shown to be crucial for moderating future increases in post-fire flood hazards.

Larval source management has gained renewed interest as a malaria control strategy in Africa but the widespread and transient nature of larval breeding sites poses a challenge to its implementation. To address this problem, we propose combining an integrated high resolution (50 m) distributed hydrological model and remotely sensed data to simulate potential malaria vector aquatic habitats. The novelty of our approach lies in its consideration of irrigation practices and its ability to resolve complex ponding processes that contribute to potential larval habitats. The simulation was performed for the year of 2018 using ParFlow-Common Land Model (CLM) in a sugarcane plantation in the Oromia region, Ethiopia to examine the effects of rainfall and irrigation. The model was calibrated using field observations of larval habitats to successfully predict ponding at all surveyed locations from the validation dataset. Results show that without irrigation, at least half of the area inside the farms had a 40% probability of potential larval habitat occurrence. With irrigation, the probability increased to 56%. Irrigation dampened the seasonality of the potential larval habitats such that the peak larval habitat occurrence window during the rainy season was extended into the dry season. Furthermore, the stability of the habitats was prolonged, with a significant shift from semi-permanent to permanent habitats. Our study provides a hydrological perspective on the impact of environmental modification on malaria vector ecology, which can potentially inform malaria control strategies through better water management.

As urbanization and climate change alter sediment fluxes, relative sea level, and coastal erosion around the world, management of sediment as a resource is increasingly important. Sediment is needed to enhance marsh accretion rates, raise the grade elevation of development, and build up beaches and dunes. Beneficial reuse of sediment refers to the repurposing of local sources of sediment for these applications, material typically available from dredging or sediment capture infrastructure, and represents a more sustainable approach compared to the status-quo involving transport to and from distant locations. However, in many locations, beneficial reuse remains a concept or is constrained to small-scale applications. In this paper, we draw on interviews with coastal sediment managers and regulators in Southern California to identify barriers to beneficial reuse and opportunities to overcome them. Interviewees reported numerous regulatory, technical, psychological, financial, and interorganizational barriers in their watersheds and regions. By highlighting these barriers, we aim to identify systemic changes that would make beneficial reuse a realistic and accessible option for Southern California and elsewhere. Most prominently, a more flexible regulatory framework that allows sediment management practices to adapt over time, pilot studies to understand how beneficial reuse works in various settings, and educational programs for regulators and the public could make beneficial reuse a more widespread approach.

Existing needs to manage flood risk in the United States are underserved by available flood hazard information. This contributes to an alarming escalation of flood impacts amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars per year and countless disrupted lives and affected communities. Making information about flood hazards useful for the range of decisions that dictate the consequences of flooding poses many challenges. Here, we describe collaborative flood modeling, whereby researchers and end-users at two coastal sites co-develop fine-resolution flood hazard models and maps responsive to decision-making needs. We find, first of all, that resident perception and awareness of flooding are enhanced more by fine-resolution depth contour maps than Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood hazard classification maps and that viewing fine-resolution depth contour maps helps to minimize differences in flood perception across subgroups within the community, generating a shared understanding. We also find that collaborative flood modeling supports the engagement of a wide range of end-users in contemplating the risks of flooding and provides strong evidence that the co-produced knowledge can be readily adopted and applied for Flood Risk Management (FRM). Overall, collaborative flood modeling advances FRM by providing multiple points of entry for diverse groups of end-users to contemplate the spatial extent, intensity, timing, chance, and consequences of flooding, thus enabling the web of decision-making related to flooding to be better informed with the best available science. This transdisciplinary approach emphasizes vulnerability reduction and is complementary to FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps used for flood insurance administration.

Pluvial flash flooding (PFF) is a growing hazard facing cities around the world as a result of rapid urbanization and more intense precipitation from global warming, particularly for low-resourced settings in developing countries. We present collaborative modeling (CM) as an iterative process to meet diverse decision-making needs related to PFF through the co-production of flood hazard models and maps. CM resulted in a set of flood hazard maps accessible through an online viewer that end-users found useful and useable for understanding PFF threats, including debris blockages and barriers to mobility and evacuation. End-users of information included individuals concerned with general flood awareness and preparedness, and involved in infrastructure and emergency management, planning, and policy. CM also showed that rain-on-grid hydrodynamic modeling is needed to depict PFF threats in ways that are intuitive to end-users. These outcomes evidence the importance and transferability of public health rationale for community-based research and principles used here including recognizing community as a unit of identity, building on strengths of the community, and integrating knowledge for the benefit of all partners.

A method to link bivariate statistical analysis and hydrodynamic modeling for flood hazard estimation in tidal channels and estuaries is presented and discussed for the general case where flood hazards are linked to upstream riverine discharge Q and downstream ocean level, H. Using a bivariate approach, there are many possible combinations of Q and H that jointly reflect a specific return period, T, raising questions about the best choice as boundary forcing in a hydrodynamic model. We show, first of all, how possible Q and H values depend on whether the definition of T corresponds to the probability of exceedance of “H OR Q” or “H AND Q”. We also show that flood hazards defined by “OR” return periods are more conservative than “AND” return periods. Finally, we introduce a new composite water surface profile to represent the spatially distributed hazard for return period T. The composite profile synthesizes hydrodynamic model results from the “AND” hazard scenario and two scenarios based on traditional univariate analysis, a “Marginal Q” scenario and a “Marginal H” scenario.

Understanding the impact of digital, interactive flood hazard maps and flood control systems on public flood risk perception could enhance risk communication and management. This study analyzed a survey of residents living near California’s Newport Bay Estuary and found that self-rated nonspatial perceptions of dread or concern over future flood impacts were positively associated with spatial awareness of flood-prone areas. Trust in flood control systems was associated with greater spatial flood hazard awareness but weaker nonspatial dread or concern, suggesting residents who witnessed and trust flood control systems developed a confident sense of flood-prone areas and that this confidence reduced the overall nonspatial sense of flood dread and concern. Viewing a flood hazard map eliminated differences in spatial hazard awareness between subgroups that existed prior to viewing a map, and viewing a map with estimated flood depth and greater spatial differentiation was associated with higher levels of postmap spatial awareness.

Damage and disruption from flooding have rapidly escalated over recent decades. Knowing who and what is at risk, how these risks are changing, and what is driving these changes is of immense importance to flood management and policy. Accurate predictions of flood risk are also critical to public safety. However, many high‐profile research studies reporting risks at national and global scales rely upon a significant oversimplification of how floods behave—as a level pool—an approach known as bathtub modeling that is avoided in flood management practice due to known biases (e.g., >200% error in flood area) compared to physics‐based modeling. With publicity by news media, findings that would likely not be trusted by flood management professionals are thus widely communicated to policy makers and the public, scientific credibility is put at risk, and maladaptation becomes more likely. Here, we call upon researchers to abandon the practice of bathtub modeling in flood risk studies, and for those involved in the peer‐review process to ensure the conclusions of impact analyses are consistent with the limitations of the assumed flood physics. We document biases and uncertainties from bathtub modeling in both coastal and inland geographies, and we present examples of physics‐based modeling approaches suited to large‐scale applications. Reducing biases and uncertainties in flood hazard estimates will sharpen scientific understanding of changing risks, better serve the needs of policy makers, enable news media to more objectively report present and future risks to the public, and better inform adaptation planning. Plain Language Summary: Numerous studies of flood risks under climate change, such as changing sea levels and flood hydrology, assess exposure by assuming that projected water levels for oceans and rivers extend horizontally across the land surface. However, this represents a significant over‐simplification of flooding that can strongly bias estimates of flood exposure (e.g., a factor of two error). Of particular concern is that biased results sometimes feed into climate hype from the news media, which can undermine public trust in climate science. Data and models suited to more complete modeling of flooding are presented. Key Points: Estimates of flood risks can be strongly biased by bathtub hazard modelingPhysics‐based modeling reduces flood risk bias compared to bathtub modeling and is now feasible globallyShort‐format, high‐impact journals have contributed to "climate hype" stemming from biased bathtub modeling studies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards and by using concrete reference points to describe flooding scenarios rather than exceedance probabilities or frequencies.

Climate change may affect ocean-driven coastal flooding regimes by both raising the mean sea level (msl) and altering ocean-atmosphere interactions. For reliable projections of coastal flood risk, information provided by different climate models must be considered in addition to associated uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a framework to project future coastal water levels and quantify the resulting flooding hazard to infrastructure. We use Bayesian Model Averaging to generate a weighted ensemble of storm surge predictions from eight climate models for two coastal counties in California. The resulting ensembles combined with msl projections, and predicted astronomical tides are then used to quantify changes in the likelihood of road flooding under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the near-future (1998–2063) and mid-future (2018–2083). The results show that road flooding rates will be significantly higher in the near-future and mid-future compared to the recent past (1950–2015) if adaptation measures are not implemented.

Abstract. Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end-users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end-users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River Valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end-user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end-users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included: (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards and by using concrete reference points to describe flooding scenarios rather than exceedance probabilities or frequencies.

Sea level rise (SLR), a well-documented and urgent aspect of anthropogenic global warming, threatens population and assets located in low-lying coastal regions all around the world. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically account for one driver at a time (e.g., either fluvial flooding only or ocean flooding only), whereas coastal cities vulnerable to SLR are at risk for flooding from multiple drivers (e.g., extreme coastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow). Here, we propose a bivariate flood hazard assessment approach that accounts for compound flooding from river flow and coastal water level, and we show that a univariate approach may not appropriately characterize the flood hazard if there are compounding effects. Using copulas and bivariate dependence analysis, we also quantify the increases in failure probabilities for 2030 and 2050 caused by SLR under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, the increase in failure probability is shown to be strongly affected by compounding effects. The proposed failure probability method offers an innovative tool for assessing compounding flood hazards in a warming climate.

Nonstationary extreme value analysis (NEVA) can improve the statistical representation of observed flood peak distributions compared to stationary (ST) analysis, but management of flood risk relies on predictions of out-of-sample distributions for which NEVA has not been comprehensively evaluated. In this study, we apply split-sample testing to 1250 annual maximum discharge records in the United States and compare the predictive capabilities of NEVA relative to ST extreme value analysis using a log-Pearson Type III (LPIII) distribution. The parameters of the LPIII distribution in the ST and nonstationary (NS) models are estimated from the first half of each record using Bayesian inference. The second half of each record is reserved to evaluate the predictions under the ST and NS models. The NS model is applied for prediction by (1) extrapolating the trend of the NS model parameters throughout the evaluation period and (2) using the NS model parameter values at the end of the fitting period to predict with an updated ST model (uST). Our analysis shows that the ST predictions are preferred, overall. NS model parameter extrapolation is rarely preferred. However, if fitting period discharges are influenced by physical changes in the watershed, for example from anthropogenic activity, the uST model is strongly preferred relative to ST and NS predictions. The uST model is therefore recommended for evaluation of current flood risk in watersheds that have undergone physical changes. Supporting information includes a MATLAB® program that estimates the (ST/NS/uST) LPIII parameters from annual peak discharge data through Bayesian inference.

The cumulative cost of frequent events (e.g., nuisance floods) over time may exceed the costs of the extreme but infrequent events for which societies typically prepare. Here we analyze the likelihood of exceedances above mean higher high water and the corresponding property value exposure for minor, major, and extreme coastal floods. Our results suggest that, in response to sea level rise, nuisance flooding (NF) could generate property value exposure comparable to, or larger than, extreme events. Determining whether (and when) low cost, nuisance incidents aggregate into high cost impacts and deciding when to invest in preventive measures are among the most difficult decisions for policymakers. It would be unfortunate if efforts to protect societies from extreme events (e.g., 0.01 annual probability) left them exposed to a cumulative hazard with enormous costs. We propose a Cumulative Hazard Index (CHI) as a tool for framing the future cumulative impact of low cost incidents relative to infrequent extreme events. CHI suggests that in New York, NY, Washington, DC, Miami, FL, San Francisco, CA, and Seattle, WA, a careful consideration of socioeconomic impacts of NF for prioritization is crucial for sustainable coastal flood risk management.

Cycles of wildfire and rainfall produce sediment‐laden floods that pose a hazard to development and may clog or overtop protective infrastructure, including debris basins and flood channels. The compound, post‐fire flood hazards associated with infrastructure overtopping and clogging are challenging to estimate due to the need to account for interactions between sequences of wildfire and storm events and their impact on flood control infrastructure over time. Here we present data sources and calibration methods to estimate infrastructure clogging and channel overtopping hazards on a catchment‐by‐catchment basis using the Post‐Fire Flood Hazard Model (PF2HazMo), a stochastic modeling approach that utilizes continuous simulation to resolve the effects of antecedent conditions and system memory. Publicly available data sources provide parameter ranges needed for stochastic modeling, and several performance measures are considered for model calibration. With application to three catchments in southern California, we show that PF2HazMo predicts the median of the simulated distribution of peak bulked flows within the 95% confidence interval of observed flows, with an order of magnitude range in bulked flow estimates depending on the performance measure used for calibration. Using infrastructure overtopping data from a post‐fire wet season, we show that PF2HazMo accurately predicts the number of flood channel exceedances. Model applications to individual watersheds reveal where infrastructure is undersized to contain present‐day and future overtopping hazards based on current design standards. Model limitations and sources of uncertainty are also discussed. Plain Language Summary: Communities at the foot of the mountains face an especially dangerous type of flooding called "sediment‐laden floods." Many such communities in the southwestern U.S. are protected from water floods by flood infrastructure designed to trap sediment at the mouth of mountain canyons and convey only water flows safely past developed areas to a downstream water body. Sediment‐laden floods, which are more forceful and typically larger than water floods, are more likely to happen during storms over burned mountain canyons soon after a wildfire occurs. However, estimating the likelihood that sediment‐laden floods fill and overtop flood infrastructure is challenging since existing sediment‐laden flood models do not explicitly consider the role of flood infrastructure. Here we present the Post‐Fire Flood Hazard Model (PF2HazMo), a model that can estimate the likelihood of post‐fire floods on a canyon‐by‐canyon basis accounting for flood infrastructure. Environmental data collected following a major wildfire is used to apply PF2HazMo to three mountain canyons in southern California, and we find that it predicts the number of floods accurately relative to observed post‐fire flood channel overtopping events. Further, the model is used to predict the frequency of floods due to infrastructure overtopping under both present‐day and future wildfire scenarios. Key Points: Flood risks are heightened by clogging of infrastructure with sediment, which can occur from sequences of storms especially after wildfiresA framework for calibration and validation of a post‐fire infrastructure clogging and flood hazard model is presentedModel applications reveal whether infrastructure is adequately sized to meet design levels of protection [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme flooding events are becoming more frequent and costly, and impacts have been concentrated in cities where exposure and vulnerability are both heightened. To manage risks, governments, the private sector, and households now rely on flood hazard data from national‐scale models that lack accuracy in urban areas due to unresolved drainage processes and infrastructure. Here we assess the uncertainties of First Street Foundation (FSF) flood hazard data, available across the U.S., using a new model (PRIMo‐Drain) that resolves drainage infrastructure and fine resolution drainage dynamics. Using the case of Los Angeles, California, we find that FSF and PRIMo‐Drain estimates of population and property value exposed to 1%‐ and 5%‐annual‐chance hazards diverge at finer scales of governance, for example, by 4‐ to 18‐fold at the municipal scale. FSF and PRIMo‐Drain data often predict opposite patterns of exposure inequality across social groups (e.g., Black, White, Disadvantaged). Further, at the county scale, we compute a Model Agreement Index of only 24%—a ∼1 in 4 chance of models agreeing upon which properties are at risk. Collectively, these differences point to limited capacity of FSF data to confidently assess which municipalities, social groups, and individual properties are at risk of flooding within urban areas. These results caution that national‐scale model data at present may misinform urban flood risk strategies and lead to maladaptation, underscoring the importance of refined and validated urban models. Plain Language Summary: Flooding presents a significant risk to human activities and development, and its impacts have been rapidly increasing over recent decades. However, government flood mapping in the U.S. has not kept pace with adaptation needs, and communities have now turned to other sources of information to inform planning and design decisions. This study examines the uncertainties of flood hazard data available from the First Street Foundation across Los Angeles, California, the second largest city in the U.S. With a comparision to two different models that more fully capture processes known to affect urban flooding, we show concerning levels of uncertainty in the First Street Foundation data at scales of municipalities and properties. These results highlight the need for more robust validation of urban flood hazard models, and caution against overliance of First Street Foundation data for urban flood management. Key Points: Flood risks are concentrated in urban areas, where national‐scale hazard models are less accurateFlood exposure estimates become increasingly uncertain at finer scales and may misrepresent the social distribution of riskRefined and validated urban flood models are needed to effectively and equitably manage increasingly severe flood risks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nuisance flooding corresponds to minor and frequent flood events that have significant socioeconomic and public health impacts on coastal communities. Yearly averaged local mean sea level can be used as proxy to statistically predict the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on the frequency of nuisance floods (NFs). In this study, we use generalized linear models (GLM) and Gaussian Process (GP) models combined to (i) estimate the frequency of NF associated with the change in mean sea level, and (ii) quantify the associated uncertainties via a novel and statistically robust approach. We calibrate our models to the water level data from 18 tide gauges along the coasts of United States, and after validation, we estimate the frequency of NF associated with the SLR projections in year 2030 (under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5), along with their 90% bands, at each gauge. The historical NF-SLR data are very noisy, and show large changes in variability (heteroscedasticity) with SLR. Prior models in the literature do not properly account for the observed heteroscedasticity, and thus their projected uncertainties are highly suspect. Among the models used in this study, the Negative Binomial Distribution GLM with GP best characterizes the uncertainties associated with NF estimates; on validation data (Formula presented.) 93% of the points fall within the 90% credible limit, showing our approach to be a robust model for uncertainty quantification.

Public participation geographic information systems (PPGIS) have been increasingly used to assess resident spatial knowledge of environmental hazards and to validate and supplement expert estimates of hazardous areas with local knowledge, but few studies have demonstrated methods for directly comparing local and expert knowledge of the spatial distribution of hazards. This study collected PPGIS digital sketch maps of flood-prone areas from 166 residents living adjacent to the Newport Bay Estuary in Southern California to examine variations in spatial knowledge of flood risk. First, we assessed agreement among participants and found that residents of areas with a higher percentage of homeowner, older, and higher income residents had greater agreement regarding areas at risk of flooding. Second, we introduced composite indices to assess the agreement between participant sketches of flood-prone areas with modeled estimates of the distribution of flood hazards, and found that the level of agreement between local and expert knowledge varied by the scale of analysis and by personal and contextual factors. Respondents with higher educational attainment, household income, and homeownership were associated with greater agreement between resident sketch maps and expert estimates of hazardous areas. Results inform spatial aspects of flood risk planning and communication by demonstrating how digital sketch maps can be used to identify potential shortcomings of expert hazard models, as well as hazardous areas where resident risk perception may be weak.

Mean sea level has risen tenfold in recent decades compared to the most recent millennia, posing a serious threat for population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. An increase in the frequency of nuisance (minor) flooding has also been reported due to the reduced gap between high tidal datums and flood stage, and the rate of sea level rise (SLR) is expected to increase based on current trajectories of anthropogenic activities and greenhouse gases emissions. Nuisance flooding (NF), however nondestructive, causes public inconvenience, business interruption, and substantial economic losses due to impacts such as road closures and degradation of infrastructure. It also portends an increased risk in severe floods. Here we report substantial increases in NF along the coasts of United States due to SLR over the past decades. We then take projected near-term (2030) and midterm (2050) SLR under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, to estimate the increase in NF. The results suggest that on average, - 80 ± 10% local SLR causes the median of the NF distribution to increase by 55 ± 35% in 2050 under RCP8.5. The projected increase in NF will have significant socio-economic impacts and pose public health risks in coastal regions. Key Points Nuisance flooding substantially increases in a warming climate An ~80% increase in sea level by 2050 increases nuisance flooding by ~55% Increased nuisance flooding leads to socio-economic and public health impacts.

Catchment urbanization perturbs the water and sediment budgets of streams, degrades stream health and function, and causes a constellation of flow, water quality, and ecological symptoms collectively known as the urban stream syndrome. Low-impact development (LID) technologies address the hydrologic symptoms of the urban stream syndrome by mimicking natural flow paths and restoring a natural water balance. Over annual time scales, the volumes of stormwater that should be infiltrated and harvested can be estimated from a catchment-scale water-balance given local climate conditions and preurban land cover. For all but the wettest regions of the world, a much larger volume of stormwater runoff should be harvested than infiltrated to maintain stream hydrology in a preurban state. Efforts to prevent or reverse hydrologic symptoms associated with the urban stream syndrome will therefore require: (1) selecting the right mix of LID technologies that provide regionally tailored ratios of stormwater harvesting and infiltration; (2) integrating these LID technologies into next-generation drainage systems; (3) maximizing potential cobenefits including water supply augmentation, flood protection, improved water quality, and urban amenities; and (4) long-term hydrologic monitoring to evaluate the efficacy of LID interventions.

Porous shallow-water models (porosity models) simulate urban flood flows orders of magnitude faster than classical shallow-water models due to a relatively coarse grid and large time step, enabling flood hazard mapping over far greater spatial extents than is possible with classical shallow-water models. Here the errors of both isotropic and anisotropic porosity models are examined in the presence of anisotropic porosity, i.e., unevenly spaced obstacles in the cross-flow and along-flow directions, which is common in practical applications. We show that porosity models are affected by three types of errors: (a) structural model error associated with limitations of the shallow-water equations, (b) scale errors associated with use of a relatively coarse grid, and (c) porosity model errors associated with the formulation of the porosity equations to account for sub-grid scale obstructions. Results from a unique laboratory test case with strong anisotropy indicate that porosity model errors are smaller than structural model errors, and that porosity model errors in both depth and velocity are substantially smaller for anisotropic versus isotropic porosity models. Test case results also show that the anisotropic porosity model is equally accurate as classical shallow-water models when compared directly to gage measurements, while the isotropic model is less accurate. Further, results show the anisotropic porosity model resolves flow variability at smaller spatial scales than the isotropic model because the latter is restricted by the assumption of a Representative Elemental Volume (REV) which is considerably larger than the size of obstructions. These results point to anisotropic porosity models as being well-suited to whole-city urban flood prediction, but also reveal that point-scale flow attributes relevant to flood risk such as localized wakes and wave reflections from flow obstructions may not be resolved.

Enclosed beaches along urban coastlines are frequent hot spots of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) pollution. In this paper we present field measurements and modeling studies aimed at evaluating the impact of small storm drains on FIB pollution at enclosed beaches in Newport Bay, the second largest tidal embayment in Southern California. Our results suggest that small drains have a disproportionate impact on enclosed beach water quality for five reasons: (1) dry weather surface flows (primarily from overirrigation of lawns and ornamental plants) harbor FIB at concentrations exceeding recreational water quality criteria; (2) small drains can trap dry weather runoff during high tide, and then release it in a bolus during the falling tide when drainpipe outlets are exposed; (3) nearshore turbulence is low (turbulent diffusivities approximately 10(-3) m(2) s(-1)), limiting dilution of FIB and other runoff-associated pollutants once they enter the bay; (4) once in the bay, runoff can form buoyant plumes that further limit vertical mixing and dilution; and (5) local winds can force buoyant runoff plumes back against the shoreline, where water depth is minimal and human contact likely. Outdoor water conservation and urban retrofits that minimize the volume of dry and wet weather runoff entering the local storm drain system may be the best option for improving beach water quality in Newport Bay and other urban-impacted enclosed beaches.

The effect of mesh type on the accuracy and computational demands of a two-dimensional Godunov-type flood inundation model is critically examined. Cartesian grids, constrained and unconstrained triangular grids, constrained quadrilateral grids, and mixed meshes are considered, with and without local time stepping (LTS), to determine the approach that maximizes computational efficiency defined as accuracy relative to computational effort. A mixed-mesh numerical scheme is introduced so all grids are processed by the same solver. Analysis focuses on a wide range of dam-break type test cases, where Godunov-type flood models have proven very successful. Results show that different mesh types excel under different circumstances. Cartesian grids are 2-3 times more efficient with relatively simple terrain features such as rectilinear channels that call for a uniform grid resolution, while unstructured grids are about twice as efficient in complex domains with irregular terrain features that call for localized refinements. The superior efficiency of locally refined, unstructured grids in complex terrain is attributable to LTS; the locally refined unstructured grid becomes less efficient using global time stepping. These results point to mesh-type tradeoffs that should be considered in flood modeling applications. A mixed mesh model formulation with LTS is recommended as a general purpose solver because the mesh type can be adapted to maximize computational efficiency. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

The Seogu (western) portion of Daegu, Korea experiences chronic urban flooding and there is a need to increase flood detention and storage to reduce flood impacts. Since the site is densely developed, use of an underground car park as a cistern has been proposed. The stormwater management model (SWMM) is applied to study alternative hydraulic designs and overall performance, and it is shown that by linking SWMM to a two-dimensional flood inundation model, SWMM parameters can be calibrated from observations of flood extent. Calibration would otherwise not be possible because storm sewer flows are not internally monitored. This study reveals a significant sensitivity in SWMM relative to surcharge prediction, demonstrates a creative repurposing of urban infrastructure to manage extreme flood events and shows the importance of flood documentation relative to drainage infrastructure analysis and design.

Humans create vast quantities of wastewater through inefficiencies and poor management of water systems. The wasting of water poses sustainability challenges, depletes energy reserves, and undermines human water security and ecosystem health. Here we review emerging approaches for reusing wastewater and minimizing its generation. These complementary options make the most of scarce freshwater resources, serve the varying water needs of both developed and developing countries, and confer a variety of environmental benefits. Their widespread adoption will require changing how freshwater is sourced, used, managed, and priced.

Communities near the wildland urban interface (WUI) are exposed to a mix of three interconnected hazards (wildfire, flood, and mudslide), and understanding multi-hazard perceptions is critically important for emergency preparation and hazard mitigation—particularly given the WUI's rapid expansion and intensifying environmental hazards. Based on a survey of residents living near recent burn scars in Southern California, we document cross-over effects in hazard perceptions, where resident experience with one hazard was associated with greater hazard rankings for other hazards. Additionally, for all three hazards analyzed we document perceptions of increasing hazard levels with increasing spatial scales (home, near-home, neighborhood, and community), providing evidence of spatial optimism, or the tendency to discount proximate hazards. This study stresses the importance of using a multi-hazard and multi-scale approach for understanding and responding to local level environmental hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal wetlands in California are critically positioned at the interface between increasingly developed watersheds and the coastal ocean. These wetlands provide habitat for fish and wildlife, provide nutrients to surrounding coastal waters, and create recreational opportunities (Mitsch and Gosselink 1986). This report describes a circulation and transport model that is designed for tidal wetland circulation and mixing studies. Given the importance of wetland restoration projects to offset the impact of coastal development, wetland circulation and mixing models are of great utility for evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of various wetland restoration alternatives relative to issues such as bathing water quality, eutrophication, and sedimentation. An application of the model to a restored wetland and guidelines for its use are presented.