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Among the several threats to the conservation of mangrove ecosystems in most South Asian countries, shrimp farming is predominant. Since the introduction of shrimp farming in Sri Lanka in the 1980s, mangroves on the island’s north-western coast have been continually cleared to create new shrimp farms, leading to a decline in the social-ecological services provided by the mangrove ecosystems. Using aerial (1973) and satellite (1996–2020) images, this study assessed areal changes in mangroves and shrimp farms in the Pambala-Chilaw lagoon complex and Ihala Mahawewa, as well as the ecological footprint of shrimp farming in the study area. Mangroves around the Chilaw lagoon had decreased in areal extent by 45% from 1973 to 2020 of which 92% of this change was attributed to shrimp farming. There was, however, a decrease in the areal extent of shrimp farms from 2001 to 2020, and a corresponding increase in mangroves from 2006 to 2020. The ecological footprint of shrimp farming was assessed by comparing the expected surface ratios with those recorded for shrimp farms with mangroves and surface water bodies in the study area from 1973 to 2020. The results showed that the current shrimp farming was unsustainable (i.e. high ecological footprint). While the results support the current view that there is cause for cautious optimism with mangrove conservation (as evidenced by an increase in mangrove areal extent), it also reveals that semi-intensive shrimp farming in Sri Lanka and probably other similar tropical countries is unsustainable. If immediate actions such as effective regulation of shrimp farming activities and mangrove restoration are not taken, the mangrove ecosystem will continue to decline.