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Abstract Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of African Leucinodes species (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), which are fruit and shoot borers, especially of eggplant type fruit. The assessment focused on (i) potential pathways for entry, (ii) distribution of infested imports within EU, (iii) climatic conditions favouring establishment, (iv) spread and (v) impact. Options for risk reduction are discussed, but their effectiveness was not quantified. Leucinodes spp. are widely distributed across sub‐Saharan Africa but are little studied and they could be much more widespread in Africa than reported. Much African literature erroneously reports them as Leucinodes orbonalis which is restricted to Asia. The import of eggplant type fruit from sub‐Saharan Africa consists of special fruit types and caters mostly to niche markets in the EU. The main pathway for entry is fruit of Solanum aethiopicum and exotic varieties of eggplant (S. melongena). CLIMEX modelling was used with two possible thresholds of ecoclimatic index (EI) to assess establishment potential. Climates favouring establishment occur mostly in southern Europe, where, based on human population, 14% of the imported produce is distributed across NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30; or where 23% of the produce is distributed where EI ≥ 15. Over the next 5 years, an annual median estimate of ~ 8600 fruits, originating from Africa, and infested with African Leucinodes spp. are expected to enter EU NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 15 (90% CR ~ 570–52,700); this drops to ~ 5200 (90% CR ~ 350–32,100) in NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30. Escape of adult moths occurs mostly from consumer waste; considering uncertainties in pathway transfer, such as adult emergence, mate finding and survival of progeny, the annual median probability of a mated female establishing a founder population in NUTS regions where EI ≥ 15 was estimated to be 0.0078 (90% CR 0.00023–0.12125). This equates to a median estimate of one founder population ~ every 128 years (90% CR approximately one every 8–4280 years). Using an EI ≥ 30, the median number of founder populations establishing in the EU annually is 0.0048 (90% CR 0.0001–0.0739), equating to a median estimate of one founder population approximately every 210 years (90% CR approximately one every 14–7020 years). Under climate change for the period 2040–2059, the percent of infested produce going to suitable areas would be increased to 33% for EI ≥ 15 and to 21% for EI ≥ 30. Accordingly, the waiting time until the next founder population would be reduced to median estimates of 89 years for EI ≥ 15 (90% CR ~ 6–2980 years) and 139 years for EI ≥ 30 (90% CR 9–4655 years). If a founder population were to establish, it is estimated to spread at a rate of 0.65–7.0 km per year after a lag phase of 5–92 years. Leucinodes spp. are estimated to reduce eggplant yield by a median value of 4.5% (90% CR 0.67%–13%) if growers take no specific action, or 0.54% (90% CR between 0.13% and 1.9%) if they do take targeted action, matching previous estimates made during a risk assessment of L. orbonalis from Asia.

Abstract Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment of Leucinodes orbonalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), the eggplant fruit and shoot borer, for the EU. The assessment focused on potential pathways for entry, climatic conditions favouring establishment, spread and impact. Options for risk reduction are discussed but effectiveness was not quantified. L. orbonalis is a key pest of eggplant (aubergine/brinjal) in the Indian subcontinent and occurs throughout most of southern Asia with records mostly from India and Bangladesh. The main pathway of entry is fruit of solanaceous plants, primarily exotic varieties of eggplant, Solanum melongena and turkey berry, S. torvum. The trade in both commodities from Asia is small but nevertheless dwarfs the trade in other Solanum fruits from Asia (S. aethiopicum, S. anguivi, S. virginianum, S. aculeatissimum, S. undatum). Other Solanum fruits were therefore not further assessed as potential pathways. The trade in eggplant from Asia consists of special fruit types and caters mostly to niche markets in the EU, while most eggplant consumed in Europe is produced in southern European and northern African countries, where L. orbonalis does not occur. Using expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) and pathway modelling, the Panel estimated that approximately 3–670 infested fruit (90% certainty range, CR) of S. melongena or fruit bunches of S. torvum enter into regions of the EU that are suitable for L. orbonalis establishment each year. Based on CLIMEX modelling, and using two possible thresholds of ecoclimatic index (EI) to indicate uncertainty in establishment potential, climates favouring establishment occur mostly in southern Europe, where, based on human population, approximately 14% of the imported produce is distributed across NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30; or 23% of the produce is distributed where EI ≥ 15. Escape of adult moths occurs mostly from consumer waste. By analysing results of different scenarios for the proportion of S. melongena and S. torvum in the trade, and considering uncertainties in the climatic suitability of southern Europe, adult moth emergence in areas suitable for establishment is expected to vary between 84 individuals per year and one individual per 40 years (based on 90% CR in different scenarios). In the baseline scenario, 25% of the solanaceous fruit from Asia is S. torvum, 75% is S. melongena and EI ≥ 30 is required for establishment. After accounting for the chances of mating, host finding and establishment, the probability of a mated female establishing a founder population in the EU is less than 1 in 100,000 to about 1 event per 622 years (90% CR in baseline scenario). The waiting time until the first establishment is then 622 to more than 100,000 years (CR). If such a founder population were established, the moth is estimated to spread at a rate of 0.65–7.0 km per year after a lag phase of 5–92 years. The impact of the insect on the production of eggplant is estimated to be 0.67%–13% (CR) if growers take no specific action against the insect and 0.13%–1.9% if they do take targeted actions. Tomato (S. lycopersicum) and potato (S. tuberosum) are hosts of L. orbonalis, but the insect does not develop to maturity in tomato fruit, and it does not feed on potato tubers under field conditions; hence, damage to potato can only occur due to feeding on shoots. Tomato and potato are not preferred hosts; nevertheless, impact can occur if populations of L. orbonalis are high and preferred hosts are not available. The Panel did not assess this damage due to insufficient information.

Abstract Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative pest risk assessment of Elasmopalpus lignosellus (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the lesser cornstalk borer, for the EU. The assessment considered entry, establishment, spread and impact. Two scenarios for establishment were considered: (i) under current climatic conditions and (ii) under a future climate based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Impact assessment focused on cereal and legume host species. E. lignosellus is not known to occur outside of the Americas although it has been intercepted in the EU on fresh asparagus spears for consumption. Based on the size of the trade and evidence of interceptions, the importation of asparagus from Peru was identified as the most important pathway for entry. Using stochastic pathway modelling with parameter values based on Eurostat data and expert knowledge elicitation (EKE), the Panel estimated the median number of infested asparagus spears entering the EU annually to be approximately 8,600 (90% certainty range (CR) approximately 1,300–58,500). Each infested spear is likely to contain only one larva. Conditions are most suitable for establishment in the southern EU, especially around the Mediterranean basin. Under current climatic conditions, around 16% of spears enter regions of the EU suitable for establishment; this rises to 24% in the climate change scenario considered (2040–2059). However, due to estimated small likelihoods of adults emerging and escaping from discarded waste, finding a mate and the subsequent progeny surviving to initiate a founder population, the median number of populations expected to establish was estimated to be 0.0001 per year (90% CR 0.000005–0.002). Were E. lignosellus to establish, the median rate of natural spread was estimated to be 7.4 km/year (90% CR 0.6–18.2 km/year), after an initial lag period of 18.5 years (90% CR 3.3–43.8 years) following the establishment of a founder population. Estimated median yield losses in crops of cereals and legumes were estimated to be 0.95% (CR 0.2–2.8%), assuming farmers would adapt control measures such as are in place for other seedling pests. The Panel did not consider a scenario with additional risk reduction options because no feasible options at field level could be identified while export inspections aiming for zero contamination of the commodity are already in place in the exporting country – Peru.

Abstract Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a risk assessment of Xanthomonas citri pv. viticola (Xcv). This pest causes bacterial canker of grapevine and is reported from Brazil and India. Two scenarios were considered: scenario A0 (current practice) and A2 (additional control measures). For the fresh grape import pathway, scenario A0 results in an order of magnitude of about one entry per 10 years (median; 90% uncertainty interval between ca. one entry per 18,000 years and ca. five entries per year). For the Vitis spp. plants for planting for research/breeding purposes import pathway, the risk of entry is several orders of magnitude smaller than the risk due to fresh grape import. This outcome is also obtained under scenario A2. The key entry uncertainties include import volume and transfer (for plants for planting), transfer and the disaggregation factor (for fresh grapes) and the limited availability of epidemiological data. The extent of the area favourable for Xcv establishment in the EU is uncertain, illustrating the limitations of climate suitability assessments when based on few data points and little epidemiological information. Nevertheless, the risk of Xcv establishment is only slightly lower than the risk of Xcv entry, i.e. no major establishment constraints are expected for most entries. Similarly, the risk of Xcv establishment is assessed as only slightly lower under current climate compared to the climate of 2041–2060. For grapevine growing areas in the EU with average yearly temperature above 17°C, the lag phase between establishment and spread is expected to be about 3 years (median; 90% range between ca. 6 months and ca. 6 years). Under the same scenario, the rate of spread by natural means is assessed to be ca. 300 m/year (median; 90% range between ca. 35 and ca. 800 m/year). The spread rate would be considerably higher considering movements of plants and cutting tools or machinery. The percentage of grapevine plants infected by Xcv in production sites as yearly average over a 30‐year production cycle is estimated to be ca. 17% (median; 90% range between ca. 1.5% and ca. 46%) in table grapes and ca. 12% (median; 90% range between ca. 0.7% and ca. 37%) in wine grapes. Impacts have been reported to be severe in Brazil and India, but the estimates provided here show that there is considerable uncertainty about expected impacts in the EU.

Abstract Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest risk assessment of Amyelois transitella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the navel orangeworm, for the EU. The quantitative assessment considered two scenarios: (i) current practices and (ii) a requirement for chilled transport. The assessment focused on pathways of introduction, climatic conditions and cultivation of hosts allowing establishment, spread and impact. A. transitella is a common pest of almonds, pistachios and walnuts in California, which is the main source for these nuts imported into the EU. Based on size of the trade and infestation at origin, importation of walnuts and almonds from the USA was identified as the most important pathways for entry of A. transitella. Using expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) and pathway modelling, a median estimate of 2,630 infested nuts is expected to enter the EU each year over the next 5 years (90% certainty range (CR) from 338 to 26,000 infested nuts per year). However, due to estimated small likelihoods of transfer to a host, mating upon transfer and survival of founder populations, the number of populations that establish was estimated to be 0.000698 year−1 (median, 90% CR: 0.0000126–0.0364 year−1). Accordingly, the expected period between founding events is 1,430 years (median, 90% CR: 27.5–79,400 year). The likelihood of entry resulting in establishment is therefore considered very small. However, this estimate has high uncertainty, mainly concerning the processes of transfer of the insect to hosts and the establishment of founder populations by those that successfully transfer. Climate matching and CLIMEX modelling indicate that conditions are most suitable for establishment in the southern EU, especially around the Mediterranean basin. The median rate of natural spread was estimated to be 5.6 km/year (median, 90% CR 0.8–19.3 km/year), after an initial lag period of 3.1 year (mean, 90% CR 1.7–6.2 year) following the establishment of a founder population. If A. transitella did establish, estimated median yield losses in nuts were estimated to be in the order of 1–2% depending on the nut species and production system. A scenario requiring imports of nuts to be transported under chilled conditions was shown to provide potential to further reduce the likelihood of entry.

Abstract Following a request of the European Commission, EFSA and ANSES, beneficiary of the EFSA tasking grant on horizon scanning for plant pests (GP/EFSA/ALPHA/2017/02), developed a methodology to order by risk non‐regulated pests recently identified through the monitoring of media and scientific literature. The ranking methodology proposed at the end of the pilot phase was based on the scoring of pests under evaluation following 16 criteria related to the steps of the pest risk assessment scheme. The multicriteria matrix of scores obtained was then submitted to the multicriteria analysis method PROMETHEE. The pilot methodology was tested on a limited number of pests (14 pests identified during the monitoring activity, and 4 ‘control’ pests whose well‐known risk should be reflected either in a positive or negative score), then applied on all non‐regulated pests identified through the media and scientific literature monitoring in the first 2 years of the project. After having collected feedback from the targeted final users (EU risk managers), the methodology underwent a few refinements: (i) implementation of the methodology to a set of already assessed reference pests from EFSA opinions, (ii) exclusions of three criteria from the scoring phase, (iii) identification of pests proposed for further action (‘positive’ pests), using a threshold defined after scoring the reference pests.

Abstract The EFSA Panel on Plant health was requested to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in the relevant Implementing Acts as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’ (Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 establishing a provisional list of high risk plants, plant products or other objects, within the meaning of Article 42 of Regulation (EU) 2016/2031). This scientific opinion covers the plant health risks posed by the following commodities: (i) scions and (ii) grafted plants of Persea americana imported from Israel, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the Plant Protection and Inspection Services from Israel. The relevance of an EU quarantine pest for this opinion was based on evidence that: (i) the pest is present in Israel; (ii) P. americana is a host of the pest and (iii) the pest can be associated with the commodity. The relevance of any other pest, not regulated in the EU, was based on evidence that: (i) the pest is present in Israel; (ii) the pest is absent in the EU; (iii) P. americana is a host of the pest; (iv) the pest can be associated with the commodity and (v) the pest may have an impact and can pose a potential risk for the EU territory. Twenty‐six pests (15 insects, one mite, 9 fungi and one viroid) that fulfilled all criteria were selected for further evaluation. For the 26 selected pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier were evaluated. Limiting factors on the effectiveness of the measures were documented. For each of the 26 pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including any uncertainties. The fungi Lasiodiplodia pseudotheobromae and Neoscytalidium dimidiatum were the pests most frequently expected on the imported commodities. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9,573 and 10,000 bundles of scions per 10,000; and 9,747 and 10,000 grafted plants per 10,000 would be free of these two fungi.

Abstract The European Commission submitted to the EFSA Panel on Plant Health a Dossier by USDA proposing a systems approach to mitigate the risk of entry of Bretziella fagacearum to the EU when trading oak logs with bark from the USA. Due to the forthcoming ban of methyl bromide (MB), the Dossier indicates sulfuryl fluoride (SF) as the substitute fumigant for this commodity. After collecting additional evidence from USDA,EU NPPOs, external experts and the published literature, the Panel performed a quantitative assessment on the likelihood of pest freedom for B. fagacearum at the point of entry in the EU, comparing the proposed systems approach with those already implemented by Commission Decision 2005/359/EC. The Panel provided also a non‐quantitative assessment for all risk reduction options (RROs) proposed to be undertaken in the EU, from the point of entry to processing at the sawmill. The quantitative assessment until the EU point of entry, based on experts’ judgement, indicated that: i) the most effective import option remains the current one with MB (95% certainty that between 9,573 and 10,000 containers per 10,000 would be free of B. fagacearum), followed by that with SF (95% certainty that between 8,639 and 10,000 containers per 10,000 would be free of B. fagacearum) and, last, by the other existing option based on delivering white oak logs in certain periods of the year to certain regions of the EU without fumigation (95% certainty, between 7,803 and 10,000 containers per 10,000). RROs proposed to be undertaken in the EU are expected to further reduce the risk of establishment of B. fagacearum, should these RROs be regulated, correctly implemented and checked by NPPOs. A wood pathway analysis is needed to quantitatively assess the importance of each measure and to optimise regulatory actions and risk management efforts.

Abstract In agreement with Article 6(2) of the Regulation (EU) 2016/2031 on protective measures against pests of plants, the European Commission has been tasked by the Council and European Parliament to establish a list of Union quarantine pests which qualify as priority pests. The prioritisation is based on the severity of the economic, social and environmental impact that these pests can cause in the Union territory. The Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is in charge of developing a methodology based on a multi‐criteria decision analysis and composite indicators. In this context, EFSA has provided technical and scientific data related to these pests, in particular: (i) the potential host range and distribution of each of these pests in the Union territory at the level of NUTS2 regions; (ii) parameters quantifying the potential consequences of these pests, e.g. crop losses in terms of yield and quality, rate of spread and time to detection. Expert knowledge elicitation methodology has been applied by EFSA in order to provide those parameters in a consistent and transparent manner.

Abstract This Guidance describes a two‐phase approach for a fit‐for‐purpose method for the assessment of plant pest risk in the territory of the EU. Phase one consists of pest categorisation to determine whether the pest has the characteristics of a quarantine pest or those of a regulated non‐quarantine pest for the area of the EU. Phase two consists of pest risk assessment, which may be requested by the risk managers following the pest categorisation results. This Guidance provides a template for pest categorisation and describes in detail the use of modelling and expert knowledge elicitation to conduct a pest risk assessment. The Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment, spread and impact of plant pests in the EU. The Guidance allows the effectiveness of risk reducing options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework. A list of RROs is provided. A two‐tiered approach is proposed for the use of expert knowledge elicitation and modelling. Depending on data and resources available and the needs of risk managers, pest entry, establishment, spread and impact steps may be assessed directly, using weight of evidence and quantitative expert judgement (first tier), or they may be elaborated in substeps using quantitative models (second tier). An example of an application of the first tier approach is provided. Guidance is provided on how to derive models of appropriate complexity to conduct a second tier assessment. Each assessment is operationalised using Monte Carlo simulations that can compare scenarios for relevant factors, e.g. with or without RROs. This document provides guidance on how to compare scenarios to draw conclusions on the magnitude of pest risks and the effectiveness of RROs and on how to communicate assessment results.

Abstract EFSA was requested by the European Commission to produce a report on the susceptibility of olive varieties to the Apulian strain of Xylella fastidiosa (subsp. pauca strain CoDiRO, ST53). A systematic literature search identified 21 references providing results of primary research studies on olive plants infected (naturally or artificially) by ST53. From experimental infectivity studies and from surveys in olive orchards, converging lines of evidence indicate tolerance of the Leccino variety to ST53 infections, although no long‐term observations on yield are available yet. While the variety Leccino can become infected with the pathogen, it develops milder symptoms compared to those observed on susceptible varieties (e.g. Cellina di Nardò, Ogliarola salentina). Also, the size of the X. fastidiosa bacterial populations measured in Leccino‐infected plants is lower compared to susceptible olive varieties. Preliminary results show that tolerance or resistance traits can also be found in other olive varieties. New research is now in place in the EU to study the level of susceptibility of many olive varieties to ST53 infections, therefore more relevant results will become available in the coming years.