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Using a Bayesian framework in the inverse problem of estimating the source of an atmospheric release of a pollutant has proven fruitful in recent years. Through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, the statistical distribution of the release parameters such as the location, the duration, and the magnitude as well as error covariances can be sampled so as to get a complete characterisation of the source. In this study, several approaches are described and applied to better quantify these distributions, and therefore to get a better representation of the uncertainties. First, we propose a method based on ensemble forecasting: physical parameters of both the meteorological fields and the transport model are perturbed to create an enhanced ensemble. In order to account for physical model errors, the importance of ensemble members are represented by weights and sampled together with the other variables of the source. Second, once the choice of the statistical likelihood is shown to alter the nuclear source assessment, we suggest several suitable distributions for the errors. Finally, we propose two specific designs of the covariance matrix associated with the observation error. These methods are applied to the source term reconstruction of the 106Ru of unknown origin in Europe in autumn 2017. A posteriori distributions meant to identify the origin of the release, to assess the source term, and to quantify the uncertainties associated with the observations and the model, as well as densities of the weights of the perturbed ensemble, are presented.

International audience; In October 2017 unusual Ruthenium-106 detections across most of Europe prompted the Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire the magnitude of the release. This paper presents the inverse modeling techniques used during the event to achieve this goal. The method is based on a variational approach and consists of using air concentration measurements with the ldX long-range dispersion model included in the IRSN’s C3X operational platform. The method made it possible to quickly identify the southern Urals as the most likely geographical origin of the release. Despite uncertainties regarding the starting date of the release, calculations show that it potentially began on 23 September, while most of the release was emitted on 26 September. Among the nuclear plants identified in the southern Urals, the Mayak complex is that from which the dispersion of the Ruthenium-106 plume is most consistent with observations. The reconstructed Ruthenium-106 source term from Mayak is ∼250 TBq. In total, it was found that for 72% of the measurements simulated and observed air concentration agreed within a factor of 5. In addition, thesimulated deposition of 106Ru agrees with the observed deposition. Outside the southern Urals, the simulations indicate that areas with highest deposition values are located in southern Scandinavia and southeastern Bulgaria and are explained by rainfall events occurring while the plume was passing over.

On March 11, 2011, the Tohoku earthquake generated a huge tsunami that ravaged the Pacific coast of Japan, leading to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident. Three cores out of the six Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactors melted, resulting in the release of huge amounts of radionuclides into the atmosphere. Two years after the accident, many uncertainties remain, which prevent us from reaching a full understanding of the accident. This article presents the approach carried out during the accident and afterwards, to improve our understanding of the events and environmental consequences. We trace the time evolution of the radioactivity released to the atmosphere, its subsequent dispersion simulated by models, and we compare the results to actual measurements. Four main release periods are highlighted. The first event had limited consequences to the north of the NPP along the coast; the second had no impact on Japanese territory because the plumes traveled toward the Pacific Ocean; the third was responsible for a significant and long-term impact, especially northwest of the NPP; and the last had consequences of lesser impact on the Tokyo area. The source term, i.e. the release rate of each radionuclide, is still highly uncertain. To improve it, a new method based on inverse modeling techniques and involving the use of gamma dose rate measurements has been developed. The method proved to be efficient and reliable when applied to the Fukushima accident. The inverted source term allowed identifying the main contamination events and helped to improve the model-to-data comparisons. An important outcome on this study is that the method proved to be perfectly suited to crisis management. It should contribute to improve the emergency response of the crisis center in case of a nuclear accident., Le 11 mars 2011, le tremblement de terre du Tohoku a déclenché un tsunami qui a dévasté la côte Pacifique du Japon et engendré l'accident nucléaire de la centrale de Fukushima Daiichi. Trois des cœurs des six réacteurs ont fusionné, entraînant d'importants rejets radioactifs. Deux ans après l'accident de Fukushima, de nombreuses incertitudes demeurent et limitent encore la connaissance de l'événement. L'article présente d'abord l'approche menée dès le début de l'accident pour comprendre son déroulement. Le transport des rejets atmosphériques est simulé et les résultats sont comparés aux observations. Quatre phases principales de rejet ont été identifiées. Deux d'entre elles n'ont pas eu de conséquences importantes sur le sol japonais puisque le panache radioactif est parti vers l'océan. Une troisième phase de rejet a causé la contamination principale au nord-ouest de l'installation nucléaire. La dernière phase de rejet a contribué à la contamination des sols au sud de l'installation et, plus particulièrement, de la région de Tokyo. De nombreuses incertitudes caractérisent encore le terme source de l'accident. Une nouvelle méthode basée sur la modélisation inverse et l'utilisation des mesures de débit de dose a été développée. Les résultats très prometteurs montrent comment la démarche mise en œuvre permet d'améliorer l'estimation du terme source. L'approche développée est parfaitement adaptée à une utilisation opérationnelle et devrait contribuer à améliorer la réponse de l'Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire en cas d'accident nucléaire.

International audience; A major difficulty when inverting the source term of an atmospheric tracer dispersion problem is the estimation of the prior errors: those of the atmospheric transport model, those ascribed to the representativity of the measurements, those that are instrumental, and those attached to the prior knowledge on the variables one seeks to retrieve. In the case of an accidental release of pollutant, the reconstructed source is sensitive to these assumptions. This sensitivity makes the quality of the retrieval dependent on the methods used to model and estimate the prior errors of the inverse modeling scheme. We propose to use an estimation method for the errors' amplitude based on the maximum likelihood principle. Under semi-Gaussian assumptions, it takes into account, without approximation, the positivity assumption on the source. We apply the method to the estimation of the Fukushima Daiichi source term using activity concentrations in the air. The results are compared to an L-curve estimation technique and to Desroziers's scheme. The total reconstructed activities significantly depend on the chosen method. Because of the poor observability of the Fukushima Daiichi emissions, these methods provide lower bounds for cesium-137 and iodine-131 reconstructed activities. These lower bound estimates, 1.2 × 1016 Bq for cesium-137, with an estimated standard deviation range of 15%-20%, and 1.9 − 3.8 × 1017 Bq for iodine-131, with an estimated standard deviation range of 5%-10%, are of the same order of magnitude as those provided by the Japanese Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency and about 5 to 10 times less than the Chernobyl atmospheric releases.