Search

Your search keyword '"Scaife, Adam A."' showing total 726 results
Start Over Author "Scaife, Adam A."
726 results on '"Scaife, Adam A."'

7. Corrigendum

Author

Lim, Eun-Pa, Hendon, Harry H., Butler, Amy H., Thompson, David W.J., Lawrence, Zachary D., Scaife, Adam A., Shepherd, Theodore G., Polichtchouk, Inna, Nakamura, Hisashi, Kobayashi, Chiaki, Comer, Ruth, Coy, Lawrence, Dowdy, Andrew, Garreaud, Rene D., Newman, Paul A., and Wang, Guomin

Subjects
Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

The authors of Lim et al. (2021) have found an error in the code that processed the data displayed in Fig. 2c in the article. The bar graph is supposed [...]

Published
2024
Full Text
View/download PDF

13. The U.K.–China Climate Science to Service Partnership

Author

Scaife, Adam A., Good, Elizabeth, Sun, Ying, Yan, Zhongwei, Dunstone, Nick, Ren, Hong-Li, Li, Chaofan, Lu, Riyu, Wu, Peili, Ke, Zongjian, Ma, Zhuguo, Furtado, Kalli, Wu, Tongwen, Zhou, Tianjun, Dunbar, Tyrone, Hewitt, Chris, Golding, Nicola, Zhang, Peiqun, Allan, Rob, Dale, Kirstine, Lott, Fraser C., Stott, Peter A., Milton, Sean, Song, Lianchun, and Belcher, Stephen

Published
2021

17. Seasonal forecasts of the summer 2016 Yangtze River basin rainfall

Author

Bett, Philip E., Scaife, Adam A., Li, Chaofan, Hewitt, Chris, Golding, Nicola, Zhang, Peiqun, Dunstone, Nick, Smith, Doug M., Thornton, Hazel E., Lu, Riyu, and Ren, Hong-Li

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods. Dams along the river help to manage flood waters, and are important sources of electricity for the region. Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit. Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services. The teleconnection from El Ni\~no to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Ni\~no in winter 2015/2016 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system. This paper therefore presents a case study of a real time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin, building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast. A simple forecasting methodology is presented, in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations. Its performance for 2016 is discussed. The heavy rainfall in the May-June-July period was correctly forecast well in advance. August saw anomalously low rainfall, and the forecasts for the June-July-August period correctly showed closer to average levels. The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin. Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts, and highlight areas for future improvements., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures. This is the original pre-print version as submitted to Adv. Atmos. Sci., and prior to peer review. Please read the final, peer-reviewed article by following the DOI link below, or at https://rdcu.be/Udte

Published
2017
Full Text
View/download PDF

18. Skill and reliability of seasonal forecasts for the Chinese energy sector

Author

Bett, Philip E., Thornton, Hazel E., Lockwood, Julia F., Scaife, Adam A., Golding, Nicola, Hewitt, Chris, Zhu, Rong, Zhang, Peiqun, and Li, Chaofan

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Abstract

We assess the skill and reliability of forecasts of winter and summer temperature, wind speed and irradiance over China, using the GloSea5 seasonal forecast system. Skill in such forecasts is important for the future development of seasonal climate services for the energy sector, allowing better estimates of forthcoming demand and renewable electricity supply. We find that although overall the skill from the direct model output is patchy, some high-skill regions of interest to the energy sector can be identified. In particular, winter mean wind speed is skilfully forecast around the coast of the South China Sea, related to skilful forecasts of the El Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation. Such information could improve seasonal estimates of offshore wind power generation. Similarly, forecasts of winter irradiance have good skill in eastern central China, with possible use for solar power estimation. Much of China shows skill in summer temperatures, which derives from an upward trend. However, the region around Beijing retains this skill even when detrended. This temperature skill could be helpful in managing summer energy demand. While both the strengths and limitations of our results will need to be considered when developing seasonal climate services in the future, the outlook for such service development in China is promising., Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures; maps at reduced quality due to arXiv size limits. This is the original pre-print version as submitted to J. Appl. Met. Climatol., and prior to peer review. Please read the final, peer-reviewed article by following the DOI link below

Published
2017
Full Text
View/download PDF

28. Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Author

Meehl, Gerald A., Richter, Jadwiga H., Teng, Haiyan, Capotondi, Antonietta, Cobb, Kim, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Donat, Markus G., England, Matthew H., Fyfe, John C., Han, Weiqing, Kim, Hyemi, Kirtman, Ben P., Kushnir, Yochanan, Lovenduski, Nicole S., Mann, Michael E., Merryfield, William J., Nieves, Veronica, Pegion, Kathy, Rosenbloom, Nan, Sanchez, Sara C., Scaife, Adam A., Smith, Doug, Subramanian, Aneesh C., Sun, Lantao, Thompson, Diane, Ummenhofer, Caroline C., and Xie, Shang-Ping

Published
2021
Full Text
View/download PDF

29. A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?

Author

Siegert, Stefan, Stephenson, David B., Sansom, Philip G., Scaife, Adam A., Eade, Rosie, and Arribas, Alberto

Subjects
Statistics - Applications
Abstract

Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple 6-parameter representation of ensemble forecasting systems and the corresponding observations. The framework is probabilistic, and thus allows for quantifying uncertainty in predictability measures such as correlation skill and signal-to-noise ratios. It also provides a natural way to produce recalibrated probabilistic predictions from uncalibrated ensembles forecasts. The framework is used to address important questions concerning the skill of winter hindcasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation for 1992-2011 issued by the Met Office GloSea5 climate prediction system. Although there is much uncertainty in the correlation between ensemble mean and observations, there is strong evidence of skill: the 95% credible interval of the correlation coefficient of [0.19,0.68] does not overlap zero. There is also strong evidence that the forecasts are not exchangeable with the observations: With over 99% certainty, the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasts is smaller than the signal-to-noise ratio of the observations, which suggests that raw forecasts should not be taken as representative scenarios of the observations. Forecast recalibration is thus required, which can be coherently addressed within the proposed framework., Comment: 36 pages, 10 figures

Published
2015
Full Text
View/download PDF

30. Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene

Author

Hernández, Armand, Martin-Puertas, Celia, Moffa-Sánchez, Paola, Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo, Ortega, Pablo, Blockley, Simon, Cobb, Kim M., Comas-Bru, Laia, Giralt, Santiago, Goosse, Hugues, Luterbacher, Jürg, Martrat, Belen, Muscheler, Raimund, Parnell, Andrew, Pla-Rabes, Sergi, Sjolte, Jesper, Scaife, Adam A., Swingedouw, Didier, Wise, Erika, and Xu, Guobao

Published
2020
Full Text
View/download PDF

43. Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance.

Author

van der Laan, Larissa, Vlug, Anouk, Scaife, Adam A., Maussion, Fabien, and Förster, Kristian

Subjects
MASS budget (Geophysics), GENERAL circulation model, GLACIERS, PEARSON correlation (Statistics), SEA level, ATMOSPHERIC models
Abstract

We present the first study using decadal re-forecasts to simulate global glacier climatic mass balance, bridging the gap between seasonal and long-term simulation of glacier contribution to catchment hydrology and sea level rise. Using the Open Global Glacier Model, driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 ensembles of initialised decadal climate re-forecasts of temperature and precipitation, we demonstrate the skill of glacier mass balance re-forecasts on the decadal timescale, for respectively 279 reference glaciers and all land-terminating glaciers globally. For comparison, the glacier model is also forced with a simple persistence forecast and general circulation model historical time series and projections, representing the current state of the art. The results from forcing with decadal re-forecasts provide improvement over the other two methods. Simulating single years, especially at short lead times, decadal re-forecasts show the highest Pearson correlations and lowest mean absolute errors, compared to observed mass balance. Simulating cumulative mass balance over full decades for the 279 reference glaciers, forcing with decadal re-forecasts yields a decrease in mean absolute error of 18 % and 16 % compared to forcing with persistence forecasts and historical global circulation model simulations, respectively. Globally, comparing average mass balance over the time period 2000–2020, forcing with decadal re-forecasts results in the highest number of regions with 'good fit' to observations (difference from observed regional mass balance =< 0.1 m w.e.), compared to the persistence and historical climate model forcing. These findings indicate that the use of decadal predictions for glacier modelling is operationally feasible and holds significant potential for future hydrological applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
Full Text
View/download PDF

44. Statistics of sudden stratospheric warmings using a large model ensemble.

Author

Ineson, Sarah, Dunstone, Nick J., Scaife, Adam A., Andrews, Martin B., Lockwood, Julia F., and Pang, Bo

Subjects
EL Nino, LA Nina, SEASONS, POLAR vortex
Abstract

Using a large ensemble of initialised retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) from a seasonal prediction system, we explore various statistics relating to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Observations show that SSWs occur at a similar frequency during both El Niño and La Niña northern hemisphere winters. This is contrary to expectation, as the stronger stratospheric polar vortex associated with La Niña years might be expected to result in fewer of these extreme breakdowns. Here we show that this similar frequency may have occurred by chance due to the limited sample of years in the observational record. We also show that in these hindcasts, winters with two SSWs, a rare event in the observational record, on average have an increased surface impact. Multiple SSW events occur at a lower rate than expected if events were independent but somewhat surprisingly, our analysis also indicates a risk, albeit small, of winters with three or more SSWs, as yet an unseen event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
Full Text
View/download PDF

45. Seasonal prediction of UK mean and extreme winds

Author

Lockwood, Julia F., primary, Stringer, Nicky, additional, Hodge, Katie R., additional, Bett, Philip E., additional, Knight, Jeff, additional, Smith, Doug, additional, Scaife, Adam A., additional, Patterson, Matthew, additional, Dunstone, Nick, additional, and Thornton, Hazel E., additional

Published
2023
Full Text
View/download PDF

49. The Climate-System Historical Forecast Project : Providing Open Access to Seasonal Forecast Ensembles from Centers around the Globe

Author

Tompkins, Adrian M., De Zárate, María Inés Ortiz, Saurral, Ramiro I., Vera, Carolina, Saulo, Celeste, Merryfield, William J., Sigmond, Michael, Lee, Woo-Sung, Baehr, Johanna, Braun, Alain, Butler, Amy, Déqué, Michel, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Gordon, Margaret, Scaife, Adam A., Imada, Yukiko, Ishii, Masayoshi, Ose, Tomoaki, Kirtman, Ben, Kumar, Arun, Müller, Wolfgang A., Pirani, Anna, Stockdale, Tim, Rixen, Michel, and Yasuda, Tamaki

Published
2017

50. Influence of the QBO on tropical convection and its extratropical teleconnections in boreal winter

Author

Andrews, Martin, Knight, Jeff, and Scaife, Adam

Abstract

The sub-seasonal influence of the QBO on the tropical tropospheric organised convection associated with the MJO remains a topic of interest despite the general difficulty in simulating the relationship in atmospheric models. In this study we use GloSea5 seasonal hindcasts to address this question. By expanding the analysis to seasonal timescales, and accounting for ENSO, we reveal the relationship between the QBO and the tropical west Pacific outgoing longwave radiation both in recent observations and our seasonal hindcasts in boreal winter. The significance of this relationship, and influence on the extratropical circulation is examined., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

Published
2023

Catalog

Books, media, physical & digital resources
See catalog results