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We discuss the outcomes of our 16th horizon scan of issues that are novel or represent a considerable step-change and have the potential to substantially affect conservation of biological diversity in the coming decade. From an initial 96 topics, our international panel of 32 scientists and practitioners prioritised 15 issues. Technological advances are prominent, including metal and non-metal organic frameworks, deriving rare earth elements from macroalgae, synthetic gene drives in plants, and low-emission cement. We include new insights into accelerated impacts of changes to Antarctic ice masses and air and water quality. We hope that anticipating and mitigating negative impacts, and making best use of new opportunities related to these issues, will contribute to better outcomes for biological diversity., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests No interests are declared., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Plastic contamination in the Southern Ocean is a growing issue. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of marine microplastics (MPs) (0.1-5 mm) in surface sediments in Potter Cove and nearby areas around Argentina's Carlini station (25 de Mayo/King George Island, South Shetlands). Sediment samples from 31 sites (2020-2022) were collected to examine whether MP pollution originates from station activities or ocean currents. All samples contained MPs, averaging 0.18 ± 0.12 MPs/g of sediment, mainly microfibers (MFs) and irregular microfragments (MFRs) (0.11-6.23 mm) and irregular microfragments (MFRs) (0.09-4.57 mm). Infrared spectroscopy identified 13 polymer types, including cellulosic materials, polyester, and polyamide, with most MPs < 1 mm, showing aging signs, similar to laundry wear. This widespread distribution suggests contamination may stem from both local activities and external sources. Findings underscore the urgent need for MP pollution management and further research to identify sources and develop effective mitigation strategies., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Plastic pollution in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica is a growing concern, but many areas in this vast region remain unexplored. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of marine microplastic (MPs) concentrations in Potter Cove, located near the Argentinian Carlini research station on 25 de Mayo/King George Island, Antarctica. Water samples were collected at 14 sites within the cove, representing various influences from the station's activities. Two sampling methods were used: a 5 L Niskin bottle and an in-situ filtering device called Microfilter, allowing for large water volumes to be filtered. MPs were found in 100 % of the samples. Microfilter samples ranged from 0.02 to 2.14 MPs/L, with a mean concentration of 0.44 ± 0.44 MPs/L. Niskin bottle samples showed concentrations from 0.40 to 55.67 MPs/L, with a mean concentration of 19.03 ± 18.21 MPs/L. The dominant types of MPs were anthropogenic black, transparent, and pink microfibers (MFs) measuring between 0.11 and 3.6 mm (Microfilter) and 0.06 to 7.96 mm (Niskin bottle), with a median length of 0.01 mm for both methods. Transparent and black irregular microfragments (MFRs) with diameters from 0.10 to 5.08 mm and a median diameter of 0.49 mm were also prevalent. FTIR-spectroscopy revealed the presence of 14 types of polymers. Cellulose-based materials and polyethylene terephthalate were the most abundant in MFs, while polyurethanes and styrene-based copolymers dominated in MFRs. MPs were more abundant near the Carlini station. Compared to other coastal Antarctic areas, the MPs in the cove were relatively abundant and mostly smaller than 1 mm. Local activities on the island were identified as the primary source of MPs in the cove, and the cyclonic water circulation likely affects the distribution of small-sized particles. To protect the ecosystem, reducing plastic usage, improving waste management, regulating MPs debris, and enhancing wastewater practices are essential., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) experiences one of the highest rates of sea surface warming globally, leading to potential changes in biological communities. Long-term phytoplankton monitoring in Potter Cove (PC, King George Island, South Shetlands) from the 1990s to 2009 revealed consistently low biomass values, and sporadic blooms dominated by cold-water microplankton diatoms. However, a significant change occurred between 2010 and 2020, marked by a notable increase in intense phytoplankton blooms in the region. During this period, the presence of a nanoplankton diatom, Shionodiscus gaarderae, was documented for the first time. In some instances, this species even dominated the blooms. S. gaarderae is recognized for producing blooms in temperate waters in both hemispheres. However, its blooming in the northern Southern Ocean may suggest either a recent introduction or a range shift associated with rising temperatures in the WAP, a phenomenon previously observed in experimental studies. The presence of S. gaarderae could be viewed as a warning sign of significant changes already underway in the northern WAP plankton communities. This includes the potential replacement of microplankton diatoms by smaller nanoplankton species. This study, based on observations along the past decade, and compared to the previous 20 years, could have far-reaching implications for the structure of the Antarctic food web., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The Beagle Channel is a Subantarctic semi-estuarine environment at the southern tip of South America, where intoxication events associated with harmful algal blooms have been reported since 1886, including a world record in toxicity due to Alexandrium catenella in 1992. Toxic algae affect public health and ecosystem services, particularly mussel aquaculture and fisheries management. During the austral summer of 2022, an intense bloom of A. catenella (5 × 10 4 cells L -1 ) occurred in the Beagle Channel, leading to the second most toxic event in the area, with mussel toxicity reaching 197,266 µg STXeq kg -1 . This event was synchronous with the mortality of marine organisms from different trophic levels and terrestrial fauna, i.e., two Fuegian red foxes and a southern caracara. Stomach content and liver samples from dead kelp gulls (Larus dominicanus), Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus), papua penguins (Pygoscelis papua), and imperial cormorants (Leucocarbo atriceps), presented variable paralytic shellfish toxins (PST) levels (up to 3427 µg STXeq kg -1 ) as measured by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), suggesting that deaths were associated with high PST toxicity level. The different toxin profiles found in phytoplankton, zooplankton, squat lobsters (Grimothea gregaria), Fuegian sprat (Sprattus fuegensis), and seabirds evidenced possible toxin transformation along the food web and the possible transfer vectors. The unexpected detection of PST in terrestrial fauna (up to 2707 µg STXeq kg -1 ) suggested intoxication by scavenging on squat lobsters, which had high toxicity (26,663 µg STXeq kg -1 ). PST trace levels were also detected in a liver sample of a dead false killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens), an oceanic odontocete stranded on the coast during the bloom. Overall, our results denote the exceptional nature of the toxic, multispecies mortality event and that toxins may propagate to several levels of the food web in this Subantarctic environment., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents. For example, new sources of hydrogen fuel and changes in deep-sea currents may have profound impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Technological advances that may be positive include benchtop DNA printers and the industrialisation of approaches that can create high-protein food from air, potentially reducing the pressure on land for food production., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years. Based on a modified Delphi voting process, the final 15 issues presented were distilled from a list of 75 submitted by participants at the start of the process. These issues are grouped into three categories: ecosystem impacts, for example the impact of wildfires and the effect of poleward migration on equatorial biodiversity; resource exploitation, including an increase in the trade of fish swim bladders and increased exploitation of marine collagens; and new technologies, such as soft robotics and new biodegradable products. Our early identification of these issues and their potential impacts on marine and coastal biodiversity will support scientists, conservationists, resource managers and policymakers to address the challenges facing marine ecosystems., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Food web structure plays an important role in determining ecosystem stability against perturbations. High-latitude marine ecosystems are being affected by environmental stressors and biological invasions. In the West Antarctic Peninsula these transformations are mainly driven by climate change, while in the sub-Antarctic region by anthropogenic activities. Understanding the differences between these areas is necessary to monitor the changes that are expected to occur in the upcoming decades. Here, we compared the structure and stability of Antarctic (Potter Cove) and sub-Antarctic (Beagle Channel) marine food webs. We compiled species trophic interactions (predator-prey) and calculated complexity, structure and stability metrics. Even if both food webs presented the same connectance, we found important differences between them. The Beagle Channel food web is more complex, but less stable and sensitive to the loss of its most connected species, while the Potter Cove food web presented lower complexity and greater stability against perturbations., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a hotspot for environmental change and has a strong environmental gradient from North to South. Here, for the first time we used adult individuals of the bivalve Aequiyoldia eightsii to evaluate large-scale spatial variation in the biochemical composition (measured as lipid, protein and fatty acids) and energy content, as a proxy for nutritional condition, of three populations along the WAP: O'Higgins Research Station in the north (63.3°S), Yelcho Research Station in mid-WAP (64.9°S) and Rothera Research Station further south (67.6°S). The results reveal significantly higher quantities of lipids (L), proteins (P), energy (E) and total fatty acids (FA) in the northern population (O'Higgins) (L: 8.33 ± 1.32%; P: 22.34 ± 3.16%; E: 171.53 ± 17.70 Joules; FA: 16.33 ± 0.98 mg g) than in the mid-WAP population (Yelcho) (L: 6.23 ± 0.84%; P: 18.63 ± 1.17%; E: 136.67 ± 7.08 Joules; FA: 10.93 ± 0.63 mg g) and southern population (Rothera) (L: 4.60 ± 0.51%; P: 13.11 ± 0.98%; E: 98.37 ± 5.67 Joules; FA: 7.58 ± 0.48 mg g). We hypothesize these differences in the nutritional condition could be related to a number of biological and environmental characteristics. Our results can be interpreted as a consequence of differences in phenology at each location; differences in somatic and gametogenic growth rhythms. Contrasting environmental conditions throughout the WAP such as seawater temperature, quantity and quality of food from both planktonic and sediment sources, likely have an effect on the metabolism and nutritional intake of this species., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© 2021 Bascur et al.)

Marine phytoplankton can utilize different strategies to cope with ocean warming and freshening from glacial melting in polar regions, which are disproportionally impacted by global warming. In the present study, we investigated the individual and combined effects of a 4 °C increase in seawater temperature (T + ) and a 4 psu decrease in salinity (S - ) from ambient values on biomass, nutrient use, fatty acid composition and lipid damage biochemistry of natural phytoplankton assemblages from Potter Cove (25 de Mayo/King George Island, Antarctica). Experiments were conducted by exposing the assemblages to four treatments during a 7-day incubation period using microcosm located along shore from January 23 to 31, 2016. The N:P ratio decreased in all treatments from day 4 onwards, but especially under high temperature (T + ). Lipid damage was mainly detected under S 0 T + and S - T + conditions, and it decreased when the production of the antioxidant α-tocopherol increased. This antioxidant protection resulted in a build-up of phytoplankton biomass, especially at T + . Under the combined effect of both stressors (S - T + ), the concentration of ω3 fatty acids increased, potentially leading to higher-quality FA composition. These results, which were related to the dominance of sub-Antarctic species in phytoplankton assemblages, contribute to the understanding of the potential consequences of ocean warming and increase seawater freshening on the trophic webs of the Southern Ocean., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Important findings from the second decade of the 21st century on the impact of environmental change on biological processes in the Antarctic were synthesised by 26 international experts. Ten key messages emerged that have stakeholder-relevance and/or a high impact for the scientific community. They address (i) altered biogeochemical cycles, (ii) ocean acidification, (iii) climate change hotspots, (iv) unexpected dynamism in seabed-dwelling populations, (v) spatial range shifts, (vi) adaptation and thermal resilience, (vii) sea ice related biological fluctuations, (viii) pollution, (ix) endangered terrestrial endemism and (x) the discovery of unknown habitats. Most Antarctic biotas are exposed to multiple stresses and considered vulnerable to environmental change due to narrow tolerance ranges, rapid change, projected circumpolar impacts, low potential for timely genetic adaptation, and migration barriers. Important ecosystem functions, such as primary production and energy transfer between trophic levels, have already changed, and biodiversity patterns have shifted. A confidence assessment of the degree of 'scientific understanding' revealed an intermediate level for most of the more detailed sub-messages, indicating that process-oriented research has been successful in the past decade. Additional efforts are necessary, however, to achieve the level of robustness in scientific knowledge that is required to inform protection measures of the unique Antarctic terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and their contributions to global biodiversity and ecosystem services., (© 2020 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

Glacier melting sediment inputs affect coastal ecosystems on the Antarctic Peninsula. In Potter Cove (South Shetland Islands, Antarctica), the shift from an "ascidian dominated" to a "mixed" assemblage has been linked to sedimentation. However, in recently described newly ice-free areas ascidians became dominant in spite of total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) concentrations, which are the highest measured in Potter Cove. Here, we compared the gut content and energy reserve of three ascidian species at three stations under different TSPM regimes. All analysed species had a higher gut content with lower %OM at these newly areas. A theoretical relationship between the scope for growth for the targeted ascidians and TSPM explained assemblages' recorded change but failed to explain current ascidians distribution. The results may indicate the existence of a TSPM threshold that allows the spatial coexistence of alternative stable states at benthic Potter Cove system., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Climate change-induced glacial melt affects benthic ecosystems along the West Antarctic Peninsula, but current understanding of the effects on benthic primary production and respiration is limited. Here we demonstrate with a series of in situ community metabolism measurements that climate-related glacial melt disturbance shifts benthic communities from net autotrophy to heterotrophy. With little glacial melt disturbance (during cold El Niño spring 2015), clear waters enabled high benthic microalgal production, resulting in net autotrophic benthic communities. In contrast, water column turbidity caused by increased glacial melt run-off (summer 2015 and warm La Niña spring 2016) limited benthic microalgal production and turned the benthic communities net heterotrophic. Ongoing accelerations in glacial melt and run-off may steer shallow Antarctic seafloor ecosystems towards net heterotrophy, altering the metabolic balance of benthic communities and potentially impacting the carbon balance and food webs at the Antarctic seafloor.

The rapid increase in atmospheric temperature detected in the last decades in the Western Antarctic Peninsula was accompanied by a strong glacier retreat and an increase in production of melting water, as well as changes in the sea-ice dynamic. The objective of this study was to analyze the succession of micro- and mesozooplankton during a warm annual cycle (December 2010-December 2011) in an Antarctic coastal environment (Potter Cove). The biomass of zooplankton body size classes was used to predict predator-prey size relationships (i.e., to test bottom-up/top-down control effects) using a Multiple Linear Regression Analysis. The micro- and mesozooplanktonic successions were graphically analyzed to detect the influence of environmental periods (defined by the degree of glacial melting, sea-ice freezing and sea-ice melting) on coupling/uncoupling planktonic biomass curves associated to possible predator-prey size relationship scenarios. At the beginning of the glacial melting, medium and large mesozooplankton (calanoid copepods, Euphausia superba, and Salpa thompsoni) exert a top-down control on Chl-a and microzooplankton. Stratification of the water column benefitted the availability of adequate food-size (Chl-a <20) for large microzooplankton (tintinnids) development observed during fall. High abundance of omnivores mesozooplankton (Oithona similis and furcilia of E. superba) during sea-ice freezing periods would be due to the presence of available heterotrophic food under or within the sea ice. Finally, the increase in microzooplankton abundance in the middle of spring, when sea-ice melting starts, corresponded to small and medium dinoflagellates and ciliates species, which were possibly part of the biota of sea ice. If glacier retreat continues and the duration and thickness of the sea ice layer fluctuates as predicted by climate models, our results predict a future scenario regarding the zooplankton succession in Antarctic coastal environments., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Sea-ice and coastal glacier loss in the Western Antarctic Peninsula open new ice-free areas. They allowing primary production and providing new seabed for colonisation, both acting as a negative feedback of climate change. However, the injection of sediment-laden runoff from the melting of land-terminating glaciers may reduce this feedback. Changes in particulate matter will affect nutrition and excretion (faeces stoichiometry and properties) of suspension feeders, reshaping coastal carbon dynamics and pelagic-benthic coupling. Absorption efficiency and biodeposition of Euphausia superba and Cnemidocarpa verrucosa were quantified for different food treatments and varying sediment concentrations. Both species showed high overall absorption efficiency for free-sediment diets, but were negatively affected by sediment addition. High sediment conditions increased krill biodeposition, while it decreased in ascidians. Energy balance estimation indicated high carbon sink potential in ascidians, but it is modulated by food characteristics and negatively affected by sediment inputs in the water column., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The Beagle Channel is a remote subantarctic environment where mussel aquaculture initiatives have existed since the early 1990s. Here we analyze phytoplankton biomass and composition, and the occurrence of harmful microalgae species and their toxins at three sites during the period 2015-2016. The occurrence of potentially harmful algae was observed throughout the study period, including toxigenic dinoflagellates such as Alexandrium catenella (Group I of the A. tamarense complex), A. ostenfeldii, Dinophysis acuminata, Gonyaulax spinifera, Azadinium sp., and the diatoms Pseudo-nitzschia australis and P. fraudulenta. Toxic dinoflagellates were detected in low densities whereas a Pseudo-nitzschia bloom was observed in late February. Isolates of A. catenella and P. delicatissima sensu stricto were phylogenetically characterized. The toxin profile of A. catenella was dominated by GTX4, while P. delicatissima sensu stricto showed no production of the neurotoxin domoic acid in culture conditions. The results provide base-line information for the management of harmful algal blooms in this little explored subantarctic area., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a climatically sensitive region where periods of strong warming have caused significant changes in the marine ecosystem and food-web processes. Tight coupling between phytoplankton and higher trophic levels implies that the coastal WAP is a bottom-up controlled system, where changes in phytoplankton dynamics may largely impact other food-web components. Here, we analysed the inter-decadal time series of year-round chlorophyll- a (Chl) collected from three stations along the coastal WAP: Carlini Station at Potter Cove (PC) on King George Island, Palmer Station on Anvers Island and Rothera Station on Adelaide Island. There were trends towards increased phytoplankton biomass at Carlini Station (PC) and Palmer Station, while phytoplankton biomass declined significantly at Rothera Station over the studied period. The impacts of two relevant climate modes to the WAP, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, on winter and spring phytoplankton biomass appear to be different among the three sampling stations, suggesting an important role of local-scale forcing than large-scale forcing on phytoplankton dynamics at each station. The inter-annual variability of seasonal bloom progression derived from considering all three stations together captured ecologically meaningful, seasonally co-occurring bloom patterns which were primarily constrained by water-column stability strength. Our findings highlight a coupled link between phytoplankton and physical and climate dynamics along the coastal WAP, which may improve our understanding of overall WAP food-web responses to climate change and variability.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'., (© 2018 The Author(s).)

Glacial meltwater discharge from Antarctica is a key influence on the marine environment, impacting ocean circulation, sea level and productivity of the pelagic and benthic ecosystems. The responses elicited depend strongly on the characteristics of the meltwater releases, including timing, spatial structure and geochemical composition. Here we use isotopic tracers to reveal the time-varying pattern of meltwater during a discharge event from the Fourcade Glacier into Potter Cove, northern Antarctic Peninsula. The discharge is strongly dependent on local air temperature, and accumulates into an extremely thin, buoyant layer at the surface. This layer showed evidence of elevated turbidity, and responded rapidly to changes in atmospherically driven circulation to generate a strongly pulsed outflow from the cove to the broader ocean. These characteristics contrast with those further south along the Peninsula, where strong glacial frontal ablation is driven oceanographically by intrusions of warm deep waters from offshore. The Fourcade Glacier switched very recently to being land-terminating; if retreat rates elsewhere along the Peninsula remain high and glacier termini progress strongly landward, the structure and impact of the freshwater discharges are likely to increasingly resemble the patterns elucidated here.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'., (© 2018 The Authors.)

The biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate variability of the Antarctic continent and the Southern Ocean are major components of the whole Earth system. Antarctic ecosystems are driven more strongly by the physical environment than many other marine and terrestrial ecosystems. As a consequence, to understand ecological functioning, cross-disciplinary studies are especially important in Antarctic research. The conceptual study presented here is based on a workshop initiated by the Research Programme Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaptation of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, which focussed on challenges in identifying and applying cross-disciplinary approaches in the Antarctic. Novel ideas and first steps in their implementation were clustered into eight themes. These ranged from scale problems, through risk maps, and organism/ecosystem responses to multiple environmental changes and evolutionary processes. Scaling models and data across different spatial and temporal scales were identified as an overarching challenge. Approaches to bridge gaps in Antarctic research programmes included multi-disciplinary monitoring, linking biomolecular findings and simulated physical environments, as well as integrative ecological modelling. The results of advanced cross-disciplinary approaches can contribute significantly to our knowledge of Antarctic and global ecosystem functioning, the consequences of climate change, and to global assessments that ultimately benefit humankind., (Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Strandings of marine animals are relatively common in marine systems. However, the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. We observed mass strandings of krill in Antarctica that appeared to be linked to the presence of glacial meltwater. Climate-induced glacial meltwater leads to an increased occurrence of suspended particles in the sea, which is known to affect the physiology of aquatic organisms. Here, we study the effect of suspended inorganic particles on krill in relation to krill mortality events observed in Potter Cove, Antarctica, between 2003 and 2012. The experimental results showed that large quantities of lithogenic particles affected krill feeding, absorption capacity and performance after only 24 h of exposure. Negative effects were related to both the threshold concentrations and the size of the suspended particles. Analysis of the stomach contents of stranded krill showed large quantities of large particles ( > 10(6 )μm(3)), which were most likely mobilized by glacial meltwater. Ongoing climate-induced glacial melting may impact the coastal ecosystems of Antarctica that rely on krill.

Intense regional warming was observed in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the last 50 years. Here, we investigate the impact of climate change on primary production (PP) in this highly productive region. This study is based on temporal data series of ozone thickness (1972-2010), sea ice concentration (1978-2010), sea-surface temperature (1990-2010), incident irradiance (1988-2010) and satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentration (Chl-a, 1997-2010) for the coastal WAP. In addition, we apply a photosynthesis/photoinhibition spectral model to satellite-derived data (1997-2010) to compute PP and examine the separate impacts of environmental forcings. Since 1978, sea ice retreat has been occurring earlier in the season (in March in 1978 and in late October during the 2000s) while the ozone hole is present in early spring (i.e. August to November) since the early 1990s, increasing the intensity of ultraviolet-B radiation (UVBR, 280-320 nm). The WAP waters have also warmed over 1990-2010. The modelled PP rates are in the lower range of previously reported PP rates in the WAP. The annual open water PP in the study area increased from 1997 to 2010 (from 0.73 to 1.03 Tg C yr(-1) ) concomitantly with the increase in the production season length. The coincidence between the earlier sea ice retreat and the presence of the ozone hole increased the exposure to incoming radiation (UVBR, UVAR and PAR) and, thus, increased photoinhibition during austral spring (September to November) in the study area (from 0.014 to 0.025 Tg C yr(-1) ). This increase in photoinhibition was minor compared to the overall increase in PP, however. Climate change hence had an overall positive impact on PP in the WAP waters., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

A quantitative assessment of observed and projected environmental changes in the Southern Ocean (SO) with a potential impact on the marine ecosystem shows: (i) large proportions of the SO are and will be affected by one or more climate change processes; areas projected to be affected in the future are larger than areas that are already under environmental stress, (ii) areas affected by changes in sea-ice in the past and likely in the future are much larger than areas affected by ocean warming. The smallest areas (<1% area of the SO) are affected by glacier retreat and warming in the deeper euphotic layer. In the future, decrease in the sea-ice is expected to be widespread. Changes in iceberg impact resulting from further collapse of ice-shelves can potentially affect large parts of shelf and ephemerally in the off-shore regions. However, aragonite undersaturation (acidification) might become one of the biggest problems for the Antarctic marine ecosystem by affecting almost the entire SO. Direct and indirect impacts of various environmental changes to the three major habitats, sea-ice, pelagic and benthos and their biota are complex. The areas affected by environmental stressors range from 33% of the SO for a single stressor, 11% for two and 2% for three, to <1% for four and five overlapping factors. In the future, areas expected to be affected by 2 and 3 overlapping factors are equally large, including potential iceberg changes, and together cover almost 86% of the SO ecosystem., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The impact of UV-B radiation (UVBR; 280-320 nm) on lower levels of a natural plankton assemblage (bacteria, phytoplankton and microzooplankton) from the St. Lawrence Estuary was studied during 9 days using several immersed outdoor mesocosms. Two exposure treatments were used in triplicate mesocosms: natural UVBR (N treatment, considered as the control treatment) and lamp-enhanced UVBR (H treatment, simulating 60% depletion of the ozone layer). A phytoplankton bloom developed after day 3, but no significant differences were found between treatments during the entire experiment for phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a and cell carbon) nor for phytoplankton cell abundances from flow cytometry and optical microscopy of three phytoplankton size classes (picoplankton, nanoplankton and microplankton). In contrast, bacterial abundances showed significantly higher values in the H treatment, attributed to a decrease in predation pressure due to a dramatic reduction in ciliate biomass (approximately 70-80%) in the H treatment relative to the N treatment. The most abundant ciliate species were Strombidinium sp., Prorodon ovum and Tintinnopsis sp.; all showed significantly lower abundances under the H treatment. P. ovum was the less-affected species (50% reduction in the H treatment compared with that of the N control), contrasting with approximately 90% for the other ones. Total specific phytoplanktonic and bacterial production were not affected by enhanced UVBR. However, both the ratio of primary to bacterial biomass and production decreased markedly under the H treatment. In contrast, the ratio of phytoplankton to bacterial plus ciliate carbon biomass showed an opposite trend than the previous results, with higher values in the H treatment at the end of the experiment. These results are explained by the changes in the ciliate biomass and suggest that UVBR can alter the structure of the lower levels of the planktonic community by selectively affecting key species. On the other hand, linearity between particulate organic carbon (POC) and estimated planktonic carbon was lost during the postbloom period in both treatments. On the basis of previous studies, our results can be attributed to the aggregation of carbon released by cells to the water column in the form of transparent exopolymer particles (TEPs) under nutrient limiting conditions. Unexpectedly, POC during such a period was higher in the H treatment than in controls. We hypothesize a decrease in the ingestion of TEPs by ciliates, in coincidence with increased DOC release by phytoplankton cells under enhanced UVBR. The consequences of such results for the carbon cycle in the ocean are discussed.