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1. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Published
2022

2. Unpacking the European Commission's fiscal policy response to crisis: mapping and explaining economic ideas in the European Semester 2011–2022.

Author

Graham, Rachel, Schoonvelde, Martijn, and Swinkels, Marij

Subjects
*FINANCIAL crises, *FISCAL policy, *COVID-19 pandemic, *ECONOMIC policy, *QUANTITATIVE research
Abstract

In this paper, we examine how and why the European Commission's ideas on fiscal policy have changed over the course of the European Semester. Empirically, we rely on a semi-supervised scaling approach to identify economic ideas as they appear in Semester documents from the aftermath of the financial crisis onwards (2011-2022). Our findings demonstrate a gradual shift in ideas from an ordoliberal to a Keynesian direction, especially during the overlapping Von der Leyen and Covid-19 crisis years. We identify substantial country-specific differences throughout 2011–2022, with some countries receiving exclusively Keynesian recommendations, and others distinctively ordoliberal ones. These patterns can be explained in part by economic conditions in those member states but not by the public's trust in the EU. These results underscore the reactive nature of the Commission's economic ideology; crises, as well as member states' economic conditions, shape the direction of its fiscal policy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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5. Economic ideology in the European semester

Author

Swinkels, Marij, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Politiek en bestuur, and UU LEG Research USG Public Matters

Abstract

This paper examines how the European Commission’s policy ideas have shifted over the course of the European Semester, the European Union’s annual cycle of economic governance and policy coordination that has been in place since 2011. In doing so, it seeks to add to our understanding of the divergent fiscal policy responses in many EU countries to the global economic crises that followed the EU financial crisis and the Covid-19 crisis. Our analysis relies on a quantitative text analysis applied to a comprehensive suite of Semester documents that were published by the European Commission in the period from the aftermath of the financial crisis to present (2011-2022). We find evidence for a shift in the salience of economic ideology in these documents that over time has shifted from a more ordoliberal in a more Keynesian direction. We also observe country-specific differences in the country-specific reports with some countries Keynesian recommendations throughout the lifetime of the European semester, and other countries receiving distinctively ordoliberal recommendations. Our findings indicate that the EU’s fiscal policy response to Covid-19 has been underpinned by a gradual change in ideas among EU policymakers since the middle of the last decade.

Published
2022

7. Economic ideology in the European semester

Author

Politiek en bestuur, UU LEG Research USG Public Matters, Swinkels, Marij, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Politiek en bestuur, UU LEG Research USG Public Matters, Swinkels, Marij, and Schoonvelde, Martijn

Published
2022

8. Three gaps in computational text analysis methods for social sciences: A research agenda

Author

Baden, Christian, Pipal, Christian, Schoonvelde, Martijn, van der Velden, Mariken A. C. G, Communication Science, Network Institute, Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC), and Research Centre Arts in Society (AiS)

Subjects
0508 media and communications, Communication, 05 social sciences, 050602 political science & public administration, 050801 communication & media studies, 0506 political science
Abstract

We identify three gaps that limit the utility and obstruct the progress of computational text analysis methods (CTAM) for social science research. First, we contend that CTAM development has prioritized technological over validity concerns, giving limited attention to the operationalization of social scientific measurements. Second, we identify a mismatch between CTAMs’ focus on extracting specific contents and document-level patterns, and social science researchers’ need for measuring multiple, often complex contents in the text. Third, we argue that the dominance of English language tools depresses comparative research and inclusivity toward scholarly communities examining languages other than English. We substantiate our claims by drawing upon a broad review of methodological work in the computational social sciences, as well as an inventory of leading research publications using quantitative textual analysis. Subsequently, we discuss implications of these three gaps for social scientists’ uneven uptake of CTAM, as well as the field of computational social science text research as a whole. Finally, we propose a research agenda intended to bridge the identified gaps and improve the validity, utility, and inclusiveness of CTAM.

Published
2022
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11. How Many Replicators Does It Take to Achieve Reliability? Investigating Researcher Variability in a Crowdsourced Replication

Author

Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet, additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Akdeniz, Esra, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Bai, Ling, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul, additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix S., additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes, additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin, additional, Castillo, Juan Carlos, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, de Rooij, Eline Adriane, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Eder, Christina, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, additional, Freire, Danilo, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Halbherr, Verena, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Höffler, Jan H., additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Huth, Nora, additional, Ignacz, Zsofia, additional, Israel, Sabine, additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kanjana, Jennifer, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Khan, Salman, additional, Khatua, Sayak, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kolczynska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John Seungmin, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, additional, Greinert, Alexander, additional, Lee, Robin C., additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Liu, David, additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan Eliel, additional, Malancu, Natalia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, additional, McDonnell, Robert Myles, additional, McManus, Patricia A., additional, Wagner, Kyle, additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan J.B., additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna, additional, Pickup, Mark, additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel, additional, Reichert, Frank, additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gergor, additional, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Katja, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Juergen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem W. A., additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Suchow, Jordan, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian B., additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Wu, Cary, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zakula, Björn, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, and Żółtak, Tomasz, additional

Published
2021
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12. How Many Replicators Does It Take to Achieve Reliability? Investigating Researcher Variability in a Crowdsourced Replication

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Akdeniz, Esra, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Bai, Ling, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Rooij, Eline De, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eder, Christina, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Freire, Danilo, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Halbherr, Verena, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Höffler, Jan H., Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Israel, Sabine, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kanjana, Jennifer, Kauff, Mathias, Khan, Salman, Khatua, Sayak, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, C. Lee, Robin, Lersch, Philipp M., Liu, David, Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McDonnell, Robert Myles, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Pickup, Mark, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Reichert, Frank, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Suchow, Jordan W., Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Wu, Cary, Yamada, Yuki, Zakula, Björn, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Akdeniz, Esra, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Bai, Ling, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Rooij, Eline De, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eder, Christina, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Freire, Danilo, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Halbherr, Verena, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Höffler, Jan H., Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Israel, Sabine, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kanjana, Jennifer, Kauff, Mathias, Khan, Salman, Khatua, Sayak, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, C. Lee, Robin, Lersch, Philipp M., Liu, David, Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McDonnell, Robert Myles, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Pickup, Mark, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Reichert, Frank, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Suchow, Jordan W., Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Wu, Cary, Yamada, Yuki, Zakula, Björn, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Abstract

The paper reports findings from a crowdsourced replication. Eighty-four replicator teams attempted to verify results reported in an original study by running the same models with the same data. The replication involved an experimental condition. A “transparent” group received the original study and code, and an “opaque” group received the same underlying study but with only a methods section and description of the regression coefficients without size or significance, and no code. The transparent group mostly verified the original study (95.5%), while the opaque group had less success (89.4%). Qualitative investigation of the replicators’ workflows reveals many causes of non-verification. Two categories of these causes are hypothesized, routine and non-routine. After correcting non-routine errors in the research process to ensure that the results reflect a level of quality that should be present in ‘real-world’ research, the rate of verification was 96.1 in the transparent group and 92.4 in the opaque group. Two conclusions follow: (1) Although high, the verification rate suggests that it would take a minimum of three replicators per study to achieve replication reliability of at least 95 confidence assuming ecological validity in this controlled setting, and (2) like any type of scientific research, replication is prone to errors that derive from routine and undeliberate actions in the research process. The latter suggests that idiosyncratic researcher variability might provide a key to understanding part of the “reliability crisis” in social and behavioral science and is a reminder of the importance of transparent and well documented workflows.

Published
2021

13. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, and Nguyen, Hung H. V.

Abstract

How does noise generated by researcher decisions undermine the credibility of science? We test this by observing all decisions made among 73 research teams as they independently conduct studies on the same hypothesis with identical starting data. We find excessive variation of outcomes. When combined, the 107 observed research decisions taken across teams explained at most 2.6 of the total variance in effect sizes and 10 of the deviance in subjective conclusions. Expertise, prior beliefs and attitudes of the researchers explain even less. Each model deployed to test the hypothesis was unique, which highlights a vast universe of research design variability that is normally hidden from view and suggests humility when presenting and interpreting scientific findings.

Published
2021

14. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul, additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix S., additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes, additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin, additional, Castillo, Juan Carlos, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Huth-Stöckle, Nora, additional, Ignacz, Zsofia, additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kołczyńska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John Seungmin, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, additional, Greinert, Alexander, additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan Eliel, additional, Malancu, Natalia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, additional, McManus, Patricia A., additional, Wagner, Kyle, additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan J.B., additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna, additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel, additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gergor, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Katja, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Juergen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem W. A., additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian B., additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, Żółtak, Tomasz, additional, and Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet, additional

Published
2021
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15. Home Field Advantage? EU–ACP Economic Partnership Agreement Meeting Locations and Textual Tone.

Author

Brazys, Samuel and Schoonvelde, Martijn

Subjects
PARTNERSHIP agreements, ECONOMIC Partnership Agreements (European Union)
Abstract

The European Union's Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with countries in the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group are touted as a new form of equitable engagement. However, many argue that the EPAs simply substitute a different form of political and economic domination. In this paper, we consider if the siting of meetings has a substantive impact on EPA outcomes or media reporting thereof. Using a difference‐in‐difference like approach we evaluate if the tone and polarity of media reports about the EPAs during periods of 'home' meetings in the ACP countries differs from media reports during 'away' meetings in the EU. Using two different datasets we arrive at differing results, leading to inconclusive overall findings. While we suspect that the alternating meeting site norm has implications for EPA process and outcomes, further research will be needed to uncover the precise nature of these effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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16. EUSpeech V2

Author

Schumacher, Gijs, primary, Berk, Nicolai, additional, Pipal, Christian, additional, Kantorowicz, Jaroslaw, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Traber, Denise, additional, and de Vries, Erik, additional

Published
2020
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17. socius_2020_gender_stereotypes_onlinesupplement – Supplemental material for Diagnosing Gender Bias in Image Recognition Systems

Author

Schwemmer, Carsten, Knight, Carly, Bello-Pardo, Emily D., Oklobdzija, Stan, Schoonvelde, Martijn, and Lockhart, Jeffrey W.

Subjects
Sociology, FOS: Sociology
Abstract

Supplemental material, socius_2020_gender_stereotypes_onlinesupplement for Diagnosing Gender Bias in Image Recognition Systems by Carsten Schwemmer, Carly Knight, Emily D. Bello-Pardo, Stan Oklobdzija, Martijn Schoonvelde and Jeffrey W. Lockhart in Socius

Published
2020
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18. Text as Data in Political Psychology

Author

Schoonvelde, Martijn, Pipal, Christian, and Schumacher, Gijs

Abstract

This chapter provides an assessment of automated text analysis methods in political psychology structured around the following core questions: (i) What is the current state of affairs of text as data in political psychology? (ii) What can political science and politicalpsychology learn from each other when it comes to analysing natural language? (iii) Wheredoes text as data in political psychology go next?

Published
2019
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19. Diagnosing Gender Bias in Image Recognition Systems

Author

Schwemmer, Carsten, Knight, Carly, Bello-Pardo, Emily D., Oklobdzija, Stan, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Lockhart, Jeffrey W., Schwemmer, Carsten, Knight, Carly, Bello-Pardo, Emily D., Oklobdzija, Stan, Schoonvelde, Martijn, and Lockhart, Jeffrey W.

Abstract

Image recognition systems offer the promise to learn from images at scale without requiring expert knowledge. However, past research suggests that machine learning systems often produce biased output. In this article, we evaluate potential gender biases of commercial image recognition platforms using photographs of U.S. members of Congress and a large number of Twitter images posted by these politicians. Our crowdsourced validation shows that commercial image recognition systems can produce labels that are correct and biased at the same time as they selectively report a subset of many possible true labels. We find that images of women received three times more annotations related to physical appearance. Moreover, women in images are recognized at substantially lower rates in comparison with men. We discuss how encoded biases such as these affect the visibility of women, reinforce harmful gender stereotypes, and limit the validity of the insights that can be gathered from such data.

Published
2020

20. Undermining, defusing or defending European integration? Assessing public communication of European executives in times of EU politicisation

Author

Rauh, Christian, Bes, Bart Joachim, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Rauh, Christian, Bes, Bart Joachim, and Schoonvelde, Martijn

Abstract

How do mainstream political executives cue their politicised constituencies on European integration? Moving beyond static expectations that EU politicisation induces executives to either undermine, defuse or defend integration, this article theorises executives’ incentives under different configurations of public and partisan Euroscepticism in their home countries. Expectations are tested on the sentiment and complexity that executives attach to European integration in almost 9,000 public speeches delivered throughout the Euro Crisis. It is found that national leaders faced with sceptical public opinion and low levels of partisan Euroscepticism rhetorically undermine integration, whereas European Commissioners faced with similar conditions are prone to defend it. These responses intensify disproportionally with growing public Euroscepticism, but are moderated by Eurosceptic party strength in surprising ways. When such challenger parties come closer to absorbing the Eurosceptic potential in public opinion, executive communication turns more positive again but also involves less clear rhetorical signals. These findings move beyond existing uniform expectations on mainstream responses to Eurosceptic challenges and highlight the relevance of different domestic configurations of EU politicisation.

Published
2020

21. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul, Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Berning, Carl, Bernauer, Julian, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bol, Thijs, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian, Damian, Elena, Edelmann, Achim, Ecker, Alejandro, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gaasendam, Chris, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Greinert, Alexander, Groß, Martin, Grömping, Max, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Huth, Nora, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kolczynska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti, Dafina, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan Eliel, Malancu, Natalia Cornelia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, MAYORGA, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gergor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Juergen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Striessnig, Erich, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke Maria Antoinet, Wagner, Kyle, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Zakula, Björn, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Zhang, Nan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Subjects
Sociologie & sciences sociales [H10] [Sciences sociales & comportementales, psychologie], Open Science, Sociology & social sciences [H10] [Social & behavioral sciences, psychology], Data Science, Replication, Crowdsourcing, Immigration, Social Policy
Abstract

In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and social movements raise concerns over the future of immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy and social solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly on secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat of selective model reporting and lack of replicability. The heterogeneity of countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking and HARKing lurk among standard research practices in this area.This project employs crowdsourcing to address these issues. It draws on replication, deliberation, meta-analysis and harnessing the power of many minds at once. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative carries two main goals, (a) to better investigate the linkage between immigration and social policy preferences across countries, and (b) to develop crowdsourcing as a social science method. The Executive Report provides short reviews of the area of social policy preferences and immigration, and the methods and impetus behind crowdsourcing plus a description of the entire project. Three main areas of findings will appear in three papers, that are registered as PAPs or in process.

Published
2019

24. It takes three:How mass media coverage conditions public responsiveness to policy outputs in the United States*

Author

Williams, Christopher J., Schoonvelde, Martijn, Research Centre Arts in Society (AiS), Multi-layered governance in EUrope and beyond (MLG), and Political Science and Public Administration

Subjects
SDG 16 - Peace, SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions, Justice and Strong Institutions
Abstract

Objective: Democratic governance requires that policy outcomes and public demand for policy be linked. While studies have shown empirical support for such a relationship in various policy domains, empirical evidence also indicates that the public is relatively unaware of policy outputs. This raises a puzzle: Why do policy outputs influence public attitudes if the public knows little about them?. Methods: This study seeks to address this paradox by examining the conditioning role of media coverage. We rely on data derived from the Policy Agendas Project in the United States, allowing us to analyze the relationship between policy outcomes, public preferences, and newspaper content across a long span of time (1972–2007). Results: Our results indicate that public policy preferences respond to policy outputs, and that this relationship is strengthened by greater media attention to a policy area. Importantly, our findings also indicate that without media attention to a policy area, there is no direct effect of policy outputs on public demand for policy. Conclusions: Media coverage appears to be a key factor for public responsiveness to occur. In the absence of policy coverage by the media, public responsiveness to policy outputs is greatly reduced.

Published
2018
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31. New study of 381,000 political speeches finds that liberals use more complex language than conservatives

Author

Schoonvelde, Martijn, Brosius, Anna, Schumacher, Gijs, and Bakker, Bert N.

Subjects
Speeches -- Analysis -- Surveys, Liberalism -- Surveys, Conservatism -- Surveys, Workers, Wages and salaries, Illegal drugs, Methamphetamine, Immigrants, African Americans, Cocaine, Hispanic Americans, Business, Computers and office automation industries, Telecommunications industry
Abstract

Byline: Martijn Schoonvelde;Anna Brosius;Gijs Schumacher;Bert N. Bakker On Jan. 8, President Trump delivered a nationally televised speech calling again for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. He said: America proudly [...]

Published
2019

32. The effect of perceived similarity and behavioral options on automatic behavior

Author

Schoonvelde, Martijn

Subjects
FOS: Psychology, Social Psychology, Psychology, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Abstract

Behavioral priming effects have been well established in past research. More recent studies have investigated factors that moderate behavioral priming effects such as social comparison processes, individual goal states and environmental features. In spite of this research, however, the boundary conditions of behavioral priming effects remain unclear. In the present study we investigated these boundary conditions by examining the interplay between behavioral priming, multiple behavioral options and perceived similarity with the primed category. To this extent, we primed participants with both hooligans and nerds and manipulated their perceived similarity with these categories. We then asked participants to take a general knowledge test. Results showed that participants who were primed with hooligans performed better on science and nature questions than participants who were primed with nerds. Furthermore, we found that participants’ performance on a general knowledge test was enhanced by increased elaboration on similarities with hooligans.

Published
2018
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33. Model Choices in Observational Media Effects Research: A Systematic Review and Validation

Author

Banducci, Susan, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Stevens, Daniel, Jerit, Jennifer, Barabas, Jason, and Pollock, William

Subjects
Political Science, FOS: Political science, Comparative Politics, Models and Methods, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Abstract

Media effects research has produced mixed findings about the size and direction of the relationship between media consumption and public attitudes (e.g., Bartels, 1993). We investigate the extent to which model choices contribute to these inconsistent findings. Taking a comparative approach, we first review the use of different models in contemporary studies and their main findings. In order to extend and validate this review, we consider the implications for national election studies attempting to measure media effects in election campaigns and recreate these models with the British Election Study 2005-10 panel data. We compare the direction and size of effects of media content on attitude change across: between-subjects, within- elections models, in which the effects of individual-level variance in media exposure and content are assessed; within-subjects, within-elections models, which compare the effects of variance in media content for the same individual; and within-subjects, between-elections models that allow us to analyze the links between media content and exposure with attitude change over time. Our review shows some notable differences between models in terms of significance of effects (but not effect sizes). We corroborate this finding in the British campaign analysis. We conclude that to check the robustness of claims of media effects in observational data, where possible researchers should examine different model choices when evaluating media effects.

Published
2017
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34. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report.

Author

Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul, additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix, additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin, additional, Castillo, Juan Carlos, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Greinert, Alexander, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Höffler, Jan H., additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Huth, Nora, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Ignacz, Zsofia, additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kolczynska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Kurti, Dafina, additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan Eliel, additional, Malancu, Natalia Cornelia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, additional, McManus, Patricia A., additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan, additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna, additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel, additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gergor, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Katja, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Juergen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem W. A., additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian B., additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke Maria Antoinet, additional, Wagner, Kyle, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zakula, Björn, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Żółtak, Tomasz, additional, and Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet, additional

Published
2019
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35. Errors have been made, others will be blamed: Issue engagement and blame shifting in prime minister speeches during the economic crisis in Europe.

Author

TRABER, DENISE, SCHOONVELDE, MARTIJN, and SCHUMACHER, GIJS

Subjects
*EUROPEAN Sovereign Debt Crisis, 2009-2018, *BLAME, *PRIME ministers, *POLITICAL parties, *POLITICAL oratory, *ECONOMIC policy
Abstract

This article investigates prime ministers' communication strategies during the most recent economic crisis in Europe. It argues that when electoral risk is high but governments' policy options are severely limited, prime ministers will use specific communication strategies to mitigate electoral risks. Two such communication strategies are analysed – issue engagement and blame shifting – by applying state‐of‐the‐art quantitative text analysis methods on 5,553 speeches of prime ministers in nine European Union member states. Evidence is found for both strategies. Prime ministers talk about the economy more in response to both high (domestic) unemployment and low (domestic) gross domestic product growth. Furthermore, it is found that the (domestic) unemployment rate is the most consistent predictor of blame shifting: as the domestic unemployment rate goes up, this is followed by an increase in blame shifting towards banks, Greece and the Troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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39. Turning the Thermostat: How Media Content Moderates the Effect of Policy Spending on Public Preferences

Author

Williams, Christopher and Schoonvelde, Martijn

Subjects
Political Science, FOS: Political science, Comparative Politics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Abstract

The thermostatic theory of representation posits that public policy preferences are driven, in part, by the policy actions of governments. That is, when the government provides the public with more policy in a given domain than it desires, public demand in that domain will decrease, and when the government provides less policy than the public desires, public demand for policy in that domain will increase. A large amount of literature has shown empirical support for this theory in various policy domains. However, there is also empirical evidence to indicate that the public pays little attention to policy outputs. Thus, the question becomes, if the public is largely unaware of policy output, why does it influence public attitudes? This paper seeks to address this paradox by examining the relationship between change in public policy preferences, policy output, and media attention in a given policy area. To conduct this study, we rely upon data derived from the Policy Agendas Project in the United States, as well as public opinion data measuring the public’s relative preferences for spending across multiple policy domains. We find support for the basic premise that policy outputs influence public policy preferences. More interestingly, however, we also find that this relationship is conditioned on the degree of media attention a particular policy area garners. Our results shed new light on the boundary conditions of public responsiveness to policy outcomes, and have important implications for our understanding of representative democracy.

Published
2017
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40. Errors Have Been Made, Others Will be Blamed: Blame Avoidance and Blame-Shifting in Prime Minister Speeches During the Economic Crisis in Europe

Author

Traber, Denise, Schoonvelde, Martijn, and Schumacher, Gijs

Subjects
Political Science, FOS: Political science, Comparative Politics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Abstract

In this paper we investigate prime ministers’ communication strategies during the most re- cent economic crisis in Europe. We argue that when electoral risk is high but governments’ policy options are severely limited, prime ministers will use specific communication strategies to mitigate electoral risks. We analyze two such communication strategies – blame avoidance and blame-shifting – by applying state-of-the-art quantitative text analysis meth- ods on 5402 speeches of prime ministers in 9 EU member states. We find evidence for both strategies. Prime ministers talk about the economy more in response to both high (domestic) unemployment and low (domestic) GDP growth. Furthermore, we find the (domestic) unemployment rate to be the most consistent predictor of blame-shifting: as the domestic unemployment rate goes up, this is followed by an increase in blame-shifting towards banks, Germany, Greece and the Troika.

Published
2017

41. Competition in Media Systems and Voter Knowledge: An Agent-Based Model

Author

Schoonvelde, Martijn

Subjects
Political Science, FOS: Political science, Models and Methods, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Abstract

This paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) that shows that variation in voter knowledge can in part be driven by competition among media outlets. Using a set of simple behavioral rules implemented by voters, parties and media outlets, the model predicts that stronger media competition increases political knowledge of quality-minded voters vis-a-vis motivated reasoners although aggregate differences are small. This is because these voters are most likely to consume news even when it is of low quality. Not only do these results contribute to a larger (empirical) debate about media competition and political knowledge, but the model also serves as a theoretical starting point for exploring these patterns further.

Published
2017
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42. EUSpeech: a New Dataset of EU Elite Speeches

Author

Schumacher, Gijs, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Traber, Denise, Dahiya, Tanushree, de Vries, E, Political Science and Public Administration, Multi-layered governance in EUrope and beyond (MLG), and University of Zurich

Subjects
320 Political science, 10113 Institute of Political Science
Published
2016

50. Media systems and voter knowledge : an agent-based model

Author

SCHOONVELDE, Martijn

Subjects
Voter knowledge, Agent-based modeling, Media reporting, Party competition, Incomplete information
Abstract

This paper presents an agent-based model explaining voter knowledge in the context of electoral competition. It shows that a set of simple behavioral rules implemented by voters, parties and media outlets generates novel (and testable) predictions regarding the mass-mediated underpinnings of aggregated voter knowledge and party representativeness. More specifically, it finds that increasing competition among media outlets has a positive effect on the political knowledge of the electorate at large. It also finds that increasing media competition leads to parties that are more accountable to the median voter, but only when voters care about the quality of the news alone.

Published
2015

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