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European countries approach the market ramp-up of hydrogen very differently. In some cases, the economic and political starting points differ significantly. While the probability is high that some countries, such as Germany or Italy, will import hydrogen in the long term, other countries, such as United Kingdom, France or Spain, could become hydrogen exporters. The reasons for this are the higher potential for renewable energies but also a technology-neutral approach on the supply side. In the study “Contrasting European Hydrogen Pathways: An Analysis of Differing Approaches in Key Markets”, the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI), together with the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), analysed what the economic and political parameters relevant to a future hydrogen economy look like in the six European countries Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Green hydrogen, produced by electrolysis using water and electricity from renewable sources, is favoured by the southern European countries – Spain and Italy. Both are characterised by a high potential for renewable energies, especially photovoltaics. Germany also relies exclusively on producing green hydrogen in its National Hydrogen Strategy. France is taking a special path. Due to its large share of nuclear energy in the electricity mix, the country relies among other technologies on nuclear-based hydrogen. The advantage: It can be produced cost-effectively in times of low electricity demand. Although the long-term significance of nuclear energy in France is unclear, this approach could ensure a fast and cost-effective market ramp-up with hydrogen in the short- and medium-term. In heavy industry, hydrogen could be of central importance for decarbonisation. However, future demand also depends heavily on the price. In this respect, import-dependent countries such as Germany, which will not have sufficient domestically produced hydrogen available in the foreseeable future due to limited potential for renewable energies, could be at a disadvantage.

The interest in low-carbon hydrogen technologies is growing fast in politics and the economy. The ramp-up of a hydrogen market is a critical phase, which requires the engagement and coordination of many heterogeneous stakeholders. A better understanding of who these stakeholders are and what relationships, chances, and risks they perceive is crucial to guide a hydrogen market ramp-up. This paper conducts a stakeholder analysis for Germany with a focus on the market ramp-up period. Interviews with 36 hydrogen experts, literature, and stakeholders from 78 real-world hydrogen research and demonstration projects are analysed with qualitative content analysis and social network analysis. In total, 49 stakeholder groups are identified and defined accordingly. Our results indicate that established stakeholders' roles will significantly change in a future hydrogen market. Risks range from economic and supply chain risks to impacts on international policy. Chances are found along economic, ecological, and political dimensions. Political intervention during the market ramp-up should mostly focus on the economic gap between low-carbon hydrogen and fossil alternatives and on prioritising the allocation of scarce hydrogen supply on heterogeneous demand. Simultaneously, a long-term strategy should be envisaged to guarantee a competitive and nondiscriminatory hydrogen market in the future.

Additional file 2. Relaxing the import proportionality assumption in multi-regional input-output modeling.

As part of the decarbonisation of the global economy, low-carbon hydrogen is expected to play acentral role in future energy systems. This article presents a comprehensive approach for estimating thedevelopment of global production and supply costs of low-carbon hydrogen from renewable energy sources(RES) and natural gas until 2050.For hydrogen from RES, globally distributed wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) potentials are taken asinputs for low or high temperature electrolysers. A linear optimisation model minimises hydrogenproduction costs by determining optimal capacity ratios for each RES and electrolyser combination, basedon hourly RES electricity generation profiles. For low-carbon hydrogen from natural gas, natural gasreforming with carbon capture and storage (CCS) and pyrolysis are considered. In addition to productioncosts, this analysis assesses the costs associated with the transportation of hydrogen by ship or pipeline.The combination of production and transportation costs yields a ranking of cost-optimal supply sources forindividual countries.Estimation results suggest that natural gas reforming with CCS will be the most cost-efficient low-carbonhydrogen production pathway in the medium term (2020-2030). Production of hydrogen from RES couldbecome competitive in the long run (2030-2050) if capital costs decrease significantly. Optimal long-termhydrogen supply routes depend on regional characteristics, such as RES conditions and gas prices. Importsare cost-effective where domestic production potential is small and/or cost-intensive. Additionally, goodimport conditions exist for countries which are connected to prospective low-cost exporters via existingnatural gas pipelines that can be retrofitted to transport hydrogen. Due to high costs for seabornetransport, hydrogen trade will most likely be concentrated regionally, and markets with different provisionschemes could emerge. The results are highly sensitive to capital cost assumptions and natural gas prices.

This thesis provides four essays on the diversification of the European Union’s (EU) gas market. The essays focus on the different options for the EU to promote a diversified gas market: The first essay analyzes the effect of the Lithuanian LNG terminal that was built to diversify the Lithuanian natural gas market in 2014. By the terminal the Russian monopoly for natural gas supply to Lithuania was break down, resulting in lower gas prices. The second essay investigates the potential of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), a diversification project of the EU that connects natural gas resources from the Caspian Region via Turkey to the EU. The results imply that the SGC and Turkey’s role would be of only of minor importance for the EU, due to the high costs. Based on that investigation, the third essay looks at the market power of transit countries and quantifies the potential of market power that Turkey may exert within the SGC. Finally, the fourth essay investigates the EU diversification targets in general and estimates the economic effects of a realization up to 2025.

This paper analyses the possible future role that Turkey can play in European natural gas markets. We employ a global gas market simulation model, COLUMBUS, to assess the outcomes of different scenarios concerning natural gas supply routes to Europe through Turkey up to 2030. The results imply simply that under current conditions, i.e., a more competitive environment in European gas markets leading to low gas prices, Turkey's role would be of only minor importance. In accordance with various scenarios presented in this study, Turkey's role is seen at its most important when European demand increases and Russia exerts power in the European markets.

Turkey is a key country in order to realize the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) due to its geographical location. However, as the main transit country within the SGC, Turkey could potentially exert market power with gas transits. Whether Turkey exerts market power or not, is crucial for an economic assessment of the SGC. Hence,the article investigates this issue quantitatively using a global partial equilibrium gas market model. An oligopolistic and a competitive supply structure in Europe in 2030 are considered in the model. If the European gas market in 2030 is characterized by an oligopolistic supply, Turkey is able to exert market power resulting in higher prices compared to competitive transits, in particular in South Eastern Europe. In a competitive market structure, however, the importance of the SGC and thus the potential of Turkish transit market power is limited.