Search

High‐resolution climate projections are critical to assessing climate risk and developing climate resilience strategies. However, they remain limited in quality, availability, and/or geographic coverage. The Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals empirical statistical downscaling model (STAR‐ESDM) is a computationally‐efficient, flexible approach to generating such projections that can be applied globally using predictands and predictors sourced from weather stations, gridded data sets, satellites, reanalysis, and global or regional climate models. It uses signal processing combined with Fourier filtering and kernel density estimation techniques to decompose and smooth any quasi‐Gaussian time series, gridded or point‐based, into multi‐decadal long‐term means and/or trends; static and dynamic annual cycles; and probability distributions of daily variability. Long‐term predictor trends are bias‐corrected and predictor components used to map predictand components to future conditions. Components are then recombined for each station or grid cell to produce a continuous, high‐resolution bias‐corrected and downscaled time series at the spatial and temporal scale of the predictand time series. Comparing STAR‐ESDM output driven by coarse global climate model simulations with daily temperature and precipitation projections generated by a high‐resolution version of the same global model demonstrates it is capable of accurately reproducing projected changes for all but the most extreme temperature and precipitation values. For most continental areas, biases in 1‐in‐1000 hottest and coldest temperatures are <0.5°C and biases in the 1‐in‐1000 wet day precipitation amounts are <5 mm/day. As climate impacts intensify, STAR‐ESDM represents a significant advance in generating consistent high‐resolution projections to comprehensively assess climate risk and optimize resilience globally. Plain Language Summary: The STAR‐ESDM tool is able to quickly and accurately generate future climate projections for weather stations and high‐resolution grids anywhere in the world. It does this by breaking down global or regional climate model output into different components, from the long‐term trend to the day‐to‐day variability, then merging projected changes with observations. When tested against projections generated by a complex and computationally expensive dynamical global model, STAR‐ESDM produced almost the same output, even for extreme temperature and precipitation values, at a fraction of the computational cost. Moreover, unlike most statistical downscaling models, this method isn't tied to any specific geographic area or predictand and/or predictor data set. It can be applied to any regional or global data set, whether generated by a climate or reanalysis model, derived from satellite observations, recorded at weather stations, and more. As climate impacts escalate, STAR‐ESDM offers a flexible and effective way to generate the high‐resolution climate projections needed to better gauge climate risk and enhance resilience anywhere in the world where reliable observational or quasi‐observational data, including reanalysis or satellites, are available. This is particularly relevant to under‐resourced regions, which are often most vulnerable to climate impacts as well as most lacking in future projections. Key Points: STAR‐ESDM is a rapid, flexible and generalizable approach to bias‐correct and downscale climate model output to any finer‐resolution data setPredictors/predictands can be derived from global or regional models, satellites, reanalysis, gridded observations and weather stationsProjected changes in temperature and precipitation mirror those of a high‐resolution global model at a fraction of the computational cost [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and concentrations of salts in surface water bodies can be affected by the natural environment and local human activities such as surface and ground water withdrawals, land use and energy extraction, and variability and long-term trends in atmospheric conditions including temperature and precipitation. Here, we quantify the relationship between 121 indicators of mean and extreme temperature and precipitation and 24 water quality parameters in 57 Texas reservoirs using observational data records covering the period 1960 to 2010. Over time scales ranging from 1 week to 2 years, we find that water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, chloride, sulfate, and phosphorus all show consistent correlations with atmospheric predictors, including high and low temperature extremes, dry days, heavy precipitation events, and mean temperature and precipitation. Based on these relationships combined with regional climate projections, we expect climate change to increase water temperatures, decrease dissolved oxygen levels, decrease pH, increase specific conductance, and increase levels of sulfate and chloride in Texas reservoirs. Over decadal time scales, this may affect aquatic ecosystems in the reservoirs, including altering the risk of conditions conducive to algae occurrence, as well as affecting the quality of water available for human consumption and recreation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The 2020 Olympic Games marathon will be run through the streets of Tokyo on the mornings of August 2nd and 9th, a time of year that is typically hot, sunny, and humid. Few studies have assessed the potential impact of extreme heat along the marathon course to understand the multiple factors (e.g., radiation, wind flow) affecting human thermal comfort (TC) as influenced by urban design and vegetation. The current research establishes a baseline of microclimate conditions and scenarios to estimate the projected TC along the marathon route for spectators. Mobile microclimate data (air and surface temperatures, solar radiation, humidity, wind speed) were collected along the marathon course over 15 periods in the summer of 2016 and aligned with sky view factors (SVF). Human energy budget modeling was applied to provide spatially-explicit heat budget and TC information along the route. Conditions are expected to create the most discomfort along open, sun-exposed locations, with ~50% of the area along the second half of the course resulting in 'Hot' (budget > 200 W m−2) or 'Very hot' (budget > 295 W m−2) conditions. The heat strain index frequently rises above 80% in these locations, with high humidity and low wind flow exacerbating discomfort. Buildings and trees producing a low SVF over roads and sidewalks protect spectators from the morning radiant heat, but such locations should be balanced with wind flow to optimize comfort. The modeling and spatial information can aid in preparing for and mitigating heat stress during the Olympics. Potential solutions can be implemented in collaboration with local organizers and government. This 'research through design' strategy can aid in preparing for and mitigating heat illness during the Olympics. Knowledge gained can be extended to other areas of Tokyo to reduce urban heat, and further provide targeted guidance for effective environmental cooling techniques for human health. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • The 2020 Tokyo Olympics is expected to present heat and humidity challenges. • Spatially-explicit meteorological data provide a baseline of expected conditions. • Spectator thermal comfort varies significantly along the course. • Shade provided by trees and buildings is closely related to thermal comfort. • Enhanced preparedness efforts are needed to limit discomfort and heat illness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the potential differences in primary care physician (PCP) supply and its trend in rural and urban areas in Texas. Data from Texas Department of State Health was used to perform trend analysis in determining PCP supply from 1981 to 2007. It concludes that the data gathered is important for policy-makers to target regions needing measures and resources to reduce disparities in physician supply.