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With a reference to Russia’s size and location, its unique history and culture, and its massive economic and military resources Russia claims a prominent role in the current world order. The foreign policy strategy which Russia’s post-communist leadership developed from this worldview, has generally been pragmatic and re-active. More recently, partly due to developments beyond Russia’s influence and partially as a result of political and economic changes in Russia itself, the country’s foreign policies have become more self-confident, more assertive and more offensive, initially especially in its own environment but later also beyond its sphere of influence. Russia is a revisionist power, but with a strongly conservative streak. Multipolarity is Russia’s major foreign policy ambition, one that is based on competition and cooperation among sovereign great powers. Russia demands the right to be included, but it also wants to stand apart. Russia is strongly in favour of multilateralism, but preferably a multilateralism for the few, Russia included.

Interdependencies in the field of food, agriculture, and raw materials are growing. Global population growth, rising prosperity, and changing consumption patterns in emerging economies have increased the demand for all three. Geopolitical trends shape global markets for food, agriculture, and raw materials and carry consequences for the Dutch agro-food sector. Critical sectors of the Dutch agricultural complex are dependent on imported raw materials from the rest of the world and are therefore vulnerable to supply disruptions resulting from geopolitical developments. This report explores how the Dutch government could strengthen the resilience of the Dutch agro-food system and mitigate risks to the supply of critical raw material imports.

De Nederlandse krijgsmacht biedt waar voor ons belastinggeld. De baten komen doorgaans echter onvoldoende over het voetlicht, terwijl de kosten makkelijker aandacht krijgen. Het Centraal Planbureau (CPB) en Planbureau van de Leefomgeving (PBL) hebben in augustus 2012 de verkiezingsprogramma’s van de politieke partijen doorgerekend. In deze doorrekening gaat het niet alleen om de effecten of economische grootheden in enge zin. Ook andere zaken die burgers van belang vinden worden meegewogen, zoals milieu en reistijd. Maar onderwerpen waarvan de planbureaus de effecten niet goed kunnen modelleren, worden niet opgenomen in de doorrekening. Dat geldt bijvoorbeeld voor de welvaartseffecten van veiligheid. Partijen die relatief veel investeren in Defensie, worden hiervoor niet beloond in de CPB-doorrekeningen.

Organized crime for the European market is a multi-billion dollar business that feeds on, as well as sustains, poverty and poor governmental control. As factors like the economic crisis and the emergence and growth of urban slums will sustain organized crime, this threat is likely to stay with us in the foreseeable future. Against this background, the HCSS report Detecting Elusive Criminals answers the following question: what research strands need to be explored further in order to find solutions for the threat posed to Europe by transnational organized crime? The flexibility of criminal networks is remarkable, as they seem to think nothing of moving operations to other countries, entering into new partnerships and using other modes of transportation. Also, they are often quick to pick up on new technologies that help them run their businesses. The consequent lack of signature and standard operating procedures on the part of criminal networks means that they are increasingly difficult to detect. Therefore, we suggest a series of research strands that are more preventive in nature. The detection of criminal networks should be applied to the preventive and early warning phase: we should development frameworks and vulnerability assessment tools to predict or estimate whether a certain area – a neighborhood, a city, a region – will in the near future have to deal with criminal networks. Other important research topics include the exploration of legal possibilities needed to exchange the information needed for these forms criminal detection, and the development of ways to involve the population in the gathering of information.