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Flexibility in the energy system has been studied previously but few results have been implemented in district energy (DE) pricing models. This means that pricing models are not reflecting the system costs, making them less efficient than they need to be. We have studied if and how price models (PM) of DE company can harvest flexibility. A systematic literature search with content analysis of resulting scientific peer-reviewed publications and project reports have been performed. Thereby, the different PMs which have been described in the literature have been aiming at generating knowledge about DE flexibility. Preliminary findings show that most DE grids are slow to recognise and capture flexibility that can be catalysed through end-users, thermal inertia, heat pumps, and other. Similarly, DE companies employ a marginal cost logic to determine whether flexibility should be operationalised, and often their business models and PMs are not oriented towards expressing that value logic to their customers. We identify that there is a potential for DE companies to further capitalise on flexibility in the energy system. By inclusion of flexibility incentives in PMs, a win-win can be established by cutting operational costs for the DE provider and energy consumption of the end-user. This deliverable also includes a case study, where different PMs have been analysed to see how well they capture flexibility in buildings where both heat pumps and district heating are available as heat technologies. To do this, we apply a demand-side cost optimisation for different PMs, based on real data collected from buildings in two of the Swedish demo-sites, Borås and Eskilstuna. Furthermore, we compare the optimisation results to a baseline scenario which uses the heat pump as baseload for the building’s heating demand. Finally, the changes in energy use, economic savings and profits, and carbon emissions are analysed. The general findings and conclusions from the study imply that higher competitiveness between district heating and heat pump operations with a high temporal resolution reflecting the real costs of heat production would enable flexibility for both the power system and the district heating network and could also lead to lower costs for end-users as well as larger profits for DE companies. Reductions in carbon emissions could be achieved depending on the emission factor of the fuel used in the marginal heat production unit, it would however be interesting to study how a variable electricity emission factor could affect these results.

Inblandning av biodrivmedel är en viktig faktor för att Sverige ska klara målet om 70 % utsläppsminskningar i transportsektorn till 2030. Sverige är redan idag en av de största konsumenterna av biodrivmedel för transporter i EU, och 85% av de biodrivmedel som används kommer från import. Sverige påverkas direkt av EU-lagstiftning för biodrivmedel, men eftersom biodrivmedel handlas internationellt påverkas vår möjlighet att importera och exportera biodrivmedel även av tillgång och efterfrågan i andra länder. För att kunna utforma effektiva svenska styrmedel är det därför viktigt att förstå hur produktion, konsumtion och styrmedel för biodrivmedel ser ut i andra länder i EU. Precis som i Sverige så drivs konsumtion av biodrivmedel i andra EU-länder framför allt av styrmedel som påverkar konsumtion. Det vanligaste styrmedlet är inblandningskvoter liknande den svenska reduktionsplikten. I det nya förnybartdirektivet från EU (RED II) som kom 2018 läggs ett större fokus på avancerade biodrivmedel och målet är att de ska utgöra minst 0,2 % 2022, 1 % 2025 och 3,5 % 2030. 2020 hade 20 EU-länder (inklusive Storbritannien) egna nationella kvoter med krav på inblandning av avancerade biodrivmedel. Sverige har än så länge inte en speciell kvot för avancerade biodrivmedel. Det finns dock ett flertal planerade anläggningar i Sverige som kan komma att bli stora producenter av avancerade biodrivmedel. Tillgänglig på https://f3centre.se/sv/samverkansprogram/ En delrapport från ett projekt inom FÖRNYBARA DRIVMEDEL OCH SYSTEM 2018-2021. Ett samverkansprogram mellan Energimyndigheten och f3 Svenskt kunskapscentrum för förnybara drivmedel.

Partners to the UNFCCC have been asked to make their pledges and contribute to climate change mitigation through Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Funds have been allocated to support developing countries implement climate mitigation and adaptation measures. Meanwhile, the global sustainable development agenda has also been approved, including energy and climate goals. In other words, we would expect that INDCs explore the synergies between climate and development agendas. In 2012, Ethiopia, Kenya and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) had electrification levels of 26.6%, 23% and 18% respectively. This also means the three countries had populations of 70 million, 35 million and 60 million with no access to electricity. The electricity access targets of Ethiopia, Kenya and the DRC for 2030 are 75%. The objective of this paper is to analyze how these countries improve energy access in a context of climate change mitigation. The analysis explores (i) the electricity mix aimed for, (ii) the expected GHG emissions from electricity generation until 2030, and (iii) electrification and related metrics. Ultimately, we aim at a better understanding of what these countries’ climate and development strategies encompass in terms of emissions reductions as well as electrification goals, as per reflected in their INDCs. Given the bottom-up process inherent in the INDCs and the climate agreement mechanism, the paper gives insights on how these countries have used the INDCs to prioritize sustainable electricity access. The electrification goals are achieved by increasing generation in these countries for domestic use and enabling access to generated electricity. The INDCs are an ideal platform to achieve this if generation capacity is increased by catalyzing climate finance if the expansion falls under the category of climate-appropriate technologies. The BAU case electricity generation has been computed using a simple regression model. It has been compared with targets given by the countries or multilateral organizations. The regression model’s independent variable is the GDP/capita for each individual country. These GDP/capita forecasts are also an underpinning assumption of their submitted INDCs, and thus it is reasonable to use them in the regression model to forecast electricity generation. The diversity of the power mix is calculated using the Shannon-Weiner Index. The percentage of renewable energy sources are calculated along with their share in the total potential available in each country. The results show that the three countries have different storylines as to their sustainable electricity access targets and their INDCs. Ethiopia aims at nearly 100% renewables for power in 2030, while Kenya’s renewables only generate 54% of the total electricity provided in 2030. In the case of DRC, the renewables are very high, but the per capita electricity use is very low and it will become a power exporter. Although the climate mitigation goals for the energy sector as defined in the INDCs of the three countries are ambitious, they still have a long way to go in translating the electricity access ambitions into feasible domestic electricity use. QC 20160620