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BACKGROUND: There is significant heterogeneity in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to develop risk scores for total CVD and its components from a contemporary pooled, observational cohort of U.S. adults with DM. METHODS: CVD-free adults with DM aged 40 to 79 years were pooled from 4 U.S. population-based cohorts (CARDIA [Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults], Framingham Offspring, Jackson Heart Study, and the MESA (Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) studied since 2000. Baseline DM-specific and non-DM-specific CVD risk factors were evaluated as predictors. We developed 10-year DM Risk Scores (DMRS) for total CVD, atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF) and stroke. Score performance was validated internally and externally. RESULTS: We included 2,174 adults with DM mean age 59.2 ± 10.5 years, 55.4% female and 47.5% Black followed up to 10 years. Age, sex, HbA1c, creatinine, systolic blood pressure, DM medication, and smoking were the most important predictors. The DMRS had good internal discrimination (c-statistics 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.79 and 0.73 for CVD, ASCVD, CHD, HF, and stroke) and calibration (calibration slopes 0.93, 0.95, 0.93, 0.98, and 0.89 for CVD, ASCVD, CHD, HF, and stroke; Greenwood Nam-DAgostino calibration tests were significant for CHD (P

Metrics derived from continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems are often discordant between systems. A major cause is that CGM systems are not standardized; they use various algorithms and calibration methods, leading to discordant CGM readings across systems. This discordance can be addressed by standardizing CGM performance assessments: If manufacturers aim their CGM systems at the same target, then CGM readings will align across systems. This standardization should include the comparator device, sample origin, and study procedures. With better aligned CGM readings, CGM-derived metrics will subsequently also align better between systems.

Comparing the performance of different continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems is challenging due to the lack of comprehensive guidelines for clinical study design. In particular, the absence of concise requirements for the distribution of comparator (reference) blood glucose (BG) concentrations and their rate of change (RoC) that are used to evaluate CGM performance, impairs comparability. For this article, several experts in the field of CGM performance testing have collaborated to propose characteristics of the distribution of comparator measurements that should be collected during CGM performance testing. Specifically, it is proposed that at least 7.5% of comparator BG concentrations are 300 mg/dL (16.7 mmol/L), respectively, and that at least 7.5% of BG-RoC combinations indicate fast BG changes with impending hypo- or hyperglycemia, respectively. These proposed characteristics of the comparator data can facilitate the harmonization of testing conditions across different studies and CGM systems and ensure that the most relevant scenarios representing real-life situations are established during performance testing. In addition, a study protocol and testing procedure for the manipulation of glucose levels are suggested that enable the collection of comparator data with these characteristics. This work is an important step toward establishing a future standard for the performance evaluation of CGM systems.

Few studies have demonstrated reproducible gene-diet interactions (GDIs) impacting metabolic disease risk factors, likely due in part to measurement error in dietary intake estimation and insufficient capture of rare genetic variation. We aimed to identify GDIs across the genetic frequency spectrum impacting the macronutrient-glycemia relationship in genetically and culturally diverse cohorts. We analyzed 33,187 participants free of diabetes from 10 National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine program cohorts with whole-genome sequencing, self-reported diet, and glycemic trait data. We fit cohort-specific, multivariable-adjusted linear mixed models for the effect of diet, modeled as an isocaloric substitution of carbohydrate for fat, and its interactions with common and rare variants genome-wide. In main effect meta-analyses, participants consuming more carbohydrate had modestly lower glycemic trait values (e.g., for glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c], -0.013% HbA1c/250 kcal substitution). In GDI meta-analyses, a common African ancestry-enriched variant (rs79762542) reached study-wide significance and replicated in the UK Biobank cohort, indicating a negative carbohydrate-HbA1c association among major allele homozygotes only. Simulations revealed that >150,000 samples may be necessary to identify similar macronutrient GDIs under realistic assumptions about effect size and measurement error. These results generate hypotheses for further exploration of modifiable metabolic disease risk in additional cohorts with African ancestry.Article highlightsWe aimed to identify genetic modifiers of the dietary macronutrient-glycemia relationship using whole-genome sequence data from 10 Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine program cohorts. Substitution models indicated a modest reduction in glycemia associated with an increase in dietary carbohydrate at the expense of fat. Genome-wide interaction analysis identified one African ancestry-enriched variant near the FRAS1 gene that may interact with macronutrient intake to influence hemoglobin A1c. Simulation-based power calculations accounting for measurement error suggested that substantially larger sample sizes may be necessary to discover further gene-macronutrient interactions.

BackgroundThe association of periodontal disease with atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases is well known, but not specifically with incident peripheral artery disease (PAD). Therefore, we studied the associations of periodontal disease with incident PAD in a population-based setting.MethodsAmong 9,793 participants (aged 53-75 years) without prevalent PAD, self-reported history of periodontal disease was ascertained. Of these, 5,872 participants underwent full-mouth examinations from which periodontal status was defined using the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-American Academy of Periodontology (CDC-AAP) definition. We quantified the association of periodontal disease with incident PAD (defined by hospital admission diagnosis or procedures) using multivariable Cox regression models.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 20.1 years, 360 participants (3.6%) developed PAD. In models accounting for potential confounders including diabetes and smoking pack-years, there was higher hazard of PAD in participants with self-reported tooth loss because of periodontal disease (hazard ratio:1.54 [95% CI:1.20-1.98]), history of periodontal disease treatment (1.37 [1.05-1.80]), and periodontal disease diagnosis (1.38 [1.09-1.74]), compared to their respective counterparts. The clinical measure of periodontal disease (n = 5,872) was not significantly associated with incident PAD in the fully adjusted model (e.g., 1.53 [0.94-2.50] in CDC-AAP-defined severe periodontal disease versus no disease).ConclusionWe observed a modest association of self-reported periodontal disease, especially when resulting in tooth loss, with incident PAD in the general population. Nonetheless, a larger study with the clinical measure of periodontal disease is warranted.

ObjectiveTryptophan can be catabolised to various metabolites through host kynurenine and microbial indole pathways. We aimed to examine relationships of host and microbial tryptophan metabolites with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D), host genetics, diet and gut microbiota.MethodWe analysed associations between circulating levels of 11 tryptophan metabolites and incident T2D in 9180 participants of diverse racial/ethnic backgrounds from five cohorts. We examined host genome-wide variants, dietary intake and gut microbiome associated with these metabolites.ResultsTryptophan, four kynurenine-pathway metabolites (kynurenine, kynurenate, xanthurenate and quinolinate) and indolelactate were positively associated with T2D risk, while indolepropionate was inversely associated with T2D risk. We identified multiple host genetic variants, dietary factors, gut bacteria and their potential interplay associated with these T2D-relaetd metabolites. Intakes of fibre-rich foods, but not protein/tryptophan-rich foods, were the dietary factors most strongly associated with tryptophan metabolites. The fibre-indolepropionate association was partially explained by indolepropionate-associated gut bacteria, mostly fibre-using Firmicutes. We identified a novel association between a host functional LCT variant (determining lactase persistence) and serum indolepropionate, which might be related to a host gene-diet interaction on gut Bifidobacterium, a probiotic bacterium significantly associated with indolepropionate independent of other fibre-related bacteria. Higher milk intake was associated with higher levels of gut Bifidobacterium and serum indolepropionate only among genetically lactase non-persistent individuals.ConclusionHigher milk intake among lactase non-persistent individuals, and higher fibre intake were associated with a favourable profile of circulating tryptophan metabolites for T2D, potentially through the host-microbial cross-talk shifting tryptophan metabolism toward gut microbial indolepropionate production.

The genetic determinants of fasting glucose (FG) and fasting insulin (FI) have been studied mostly through genome arrays, resulting in over 100 associated variants. We extended this work with high-coverage whole genome sequencing analyses from fifteen cohorts in NHLBI's Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program. Over 23,000 non-diabetic individuals from five race-ethnicities/populations (African, Asian, European, Hispanic and Samoan) were included. Eight variants were significantly associated with FG or FI across previously identified regions MTNR1B, G6PC2, GCK, GCKR and FOXA2. We additionally characterize suggestive associations with FG or FI near previously identified SLC30A8, TCF7L2, and ADCY5 regions as well as APOB, PTPRT, and ROBO1. Functional annotation resources including the Diabetes Epigenome Atlas were compiled for each signal (chromatin states, annotation principal components, and others) to elucidate variant-to-function hypotheses. We provide a catalog of nucleotide-resolution genomic variation spanning intergenic and intronic regions creating a foundation for future sequencing-based investigations of glycemic traits.

BackgroundCurrent equations for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) that use serum creatinine or cystatin C incorporate age, sex, and race to estimate measured GFR. However, race in eGFR equations is a social and not a biologic construct.MethodsWe developed new eGFR equations without race using data from two development data sets: 10 studies (8254 participants, 31.5% Black) for serum creatinine and 13 studies (5352 participants, 39.7% Black) for both serum creatinine and cystatin C. In a validation data set of 12 studies (4050 participants, 14.3% Black), we compared the accuracy of new eGFR equations to measured GFR. We projected the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and GFR stages in a sample of U.S. adults, using current and new equations.ResultsIn the validation data set, the current creatinine equation that uses age, sex, and race overestimated measured GFR in Blacks (median, 3.7 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 5.4) and to a lesser degree in non-Blacks (median, 0.5 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 0.0 to 0.9). When the adjustment for Black race was omitted from the current eGFR equation, measured GFR in Blacks was underestimated (median, 7.1 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 5.9 to 8.8). A new equation using age and sex and omitting race underestimated measured GFR in Blacks (median, 3.6 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 1.8 to 5.5) and overestimated measured GFR in non-Blacks (median, 3.9 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 3.4 to 4.4). For all equations, 85% or more of the eGFRs for Blacks and non-Blacks were within 30% of measured GFR. New creatinine-cystatin C equations without race were more accurate than new creatinine equations, with smaller differences between race groups. As compared with the current creatinine equation, the new creatinine equations, but not the new creatinine-cystatin C equations, increased population estimates of CKD prevalence among Blacks and yielded similar or lower prevalence among non-Blacks.ConclusionsNew eGFR equations that incorporate creatinine and cystatin C but omit race are more accurate and led to smaller differences between Black participants and non-Black participants than new equations without race with either creatinine or cystatin C alone. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.).

Abstract Background The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation for estimation of glomerular filtration rate (eGFRCKD-EPI) improves GFR estimation compared with the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation (eGFRMDRD) but its association with mortality in a nationally representative population sample in the US has not been studied. Methods We examined the association between eGFR and mortality among 16,010 participants of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). Primary predictors were eGFRCKD-EPI and eGFRMDRD. Outcomes of interest were all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Improvement in risk categorization with eGFRCKD-EPI was evaluated using adjusted relative hazard (HR) and Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI). Results Overall, 26.9% of the population was reclassified to higher eGFR categories and 2.2% to lower eGFR categories by eGFRCKD-EPI, reducing the proportion of prevalent CKD classified as stage 3–5 from 45.6% to 28.8%. There were 3,620 deaths (1,540 from CVD) during 215,082 person-years of follow-up (median, 14.3 years). Among those with eGFRMDRD 30–59 ml/min/1.73 m2, 19.4% were reclassified to eGFRCKD-EPI 60–89 ml/min/1.73 m2 and these individuals had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.34-0.84) and CVD mortality (adjusted HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27-0.96) compared with those not reclassified. Among those with eGFRMDRD >60 ml/min/1.73 m2, 0.5% were reclassified to lower eGFRCKD-EPI and these individuals had a higher risk of all-cause (adjusted HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.01-1.69) and CVD (adjusted HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.01-1.99) mortality compared with those not reclassified. Risk prediction improved with eGFRCKD-EPI; NRI was 0.21 for all-cause mortality (p Conclusions eGFRCKD-EPI categories improve mortality risk stratification of individuals in the US population. If eGFRCKD-EPI replaces eGFRMDRD in the US, it will likely improve risk stratification.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of severe hypoglycemia measured at baseline with cardiovascular disease (CVD) among community-dwelling older individuals with diabetes, a group particularly susceptible to hypoglycemia. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We included older adults with diabetes from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who attended visit 5 (2011-2013, baseline). Severe hypoglycemia at baseline was defined with use of first position ICD-9 codes from hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and ambulance calls. We examined cross-sectional associations of severe hypoglycemia with echocardiographic indices of cardiac structure-function. We prospectively evaluated the risks of incident or recurrent CVD (coronary heart disease, stroke, or heart failure) and all-cause mortality, from baseline to 31 December 2018, using negative binomial and Cox regression models. RESULTS: Among 2,193 participants (mean [SD] age 76 [5] years, 57% female, 32% Blacks), 79 had a history of severe hypoglycemia at baseline. Severe hypoglycemia was associated with a lower left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (adjusted β-coefficient -3.66% [95% CI -5.54, -1.78]), higher LV end diastolic volume (14.80 mL [95% CI 8.77, 20.84]), higher E-to-A ratio (0.11 [95% CI 0.03, 0.18]), and higher septal E/e (2.48 [95% CI 1.13, 3.82]). In adjusted models, severe hypoglycemia was associated with incident or recurrent CVD (incidence rate ratio 2.19 (95% CI 1.24, 3.88]) and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.71 [95% CI 1.10, 2.67]) among those without prevalent CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that a history of severe hypoglycemia is associated with alterations in cardiac function and is an important marker of future cardiovascular risk in older adults.

Background Current strategies for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment focus on 10-year or longer timeframes. Shorter-term CVD risk is also clinically relevant, particularly for high-risk occupations, but is under-investigated. Methods and Results We pooled data from participants in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study), MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), and DHS (Dallas Heart Study), free from CVD at baseline (N=16 581). Measurements included N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (>100 pg/mL prospectively defined as abnormal); high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (abnormal >5 ng/L); high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (abnormal >3 mg/L); left ventricular hypertrophy by ECG (abnormal if present); carotid intima-media thickness, and plaque (abnormal >75th percentile for age and sex or presence of plaque); and coronary artery calcium (abnormal >10 Agatston U). Each abnormal test result except left ventricular hypertrophy by ECG was independently associated with increased 3-year risk of global CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, incident heart failure, or atrial fibrillation), even after adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors and the other test results. When a simple integer score counting the number of abnormal tests was used, 3-year multivariable-adjusted global CVD risk was increased among participants with integer scores of 1, 2, 3, and 4, by ≈2-, 3-, 4.5- and 8-fold, respectively, when compared with those with a score of 0. Qualitatively similar results were obtained for atherosclerotic CVD (fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke). Conclusions A strategy incorporating multiple biomarkers and atherosclerosis imaging improved assessment of 3-year global and atherosclerotic CVD risk compared with a standard approach using traditional risk factors.

Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is widely used to diagnose diabetes and assess glycemic control in individuals with diabetes. However, nonglycemic determinants, including genetic variation, may influence how accurately HbA1c reflects underlying glycemia. Analyzing the NHLBI Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) sequence data in 10,338 individuals from five studies and four ancestries (6,158 Europeans, 3,123 African-Americans, 650 Hispanics, and 407 East Asians), we confirmed five regions associated with HbA1c (GCK in Europeans and African-Americans, HK1 in Europeans and Hispanics, FN3K and/or FN3KRP in Europeans, and G6PD in African-Americans and Hispanics) and we identified an African-ancestry-specific low-frequency variant (rs1039215 in HBG2 and HBE1, minor allele frequency (MAF) = 0.03). The most associated G6PD variant (rs1050828-T, p.Val98Met, MAF = 12% in African-Americans, MAF = 2% in Hispanics) lowered HbA1c (-0.88% in hemizygous males, -0.34% in heterozygous females) and explained 23% of HbA1c variance in African-Americans and 4% in Hispanics. Additionally, we identified a rare distinct G6PD coding variant (rs76723693, p.Leu353Pro, MAF = 0.5%; -0.98% in hemizygous males, -0.46% in heterozygous females) and detected significant association with HbA1c when aggregating rare missense variants in G6PD. We observed similar magnitude and direction of effects for rs1039215 (HBG2) and rs76723693 (G6PD) in the two largest TOPMed African American cohorts, and we replicated the rs76723693 association in the UK Biobank African-ancestry participants. These variants in G6PD and HBG2 were monomorphic in the European and Asian samples. African or Hispanic ancestry individuals carrying G6PD variants may be underdiagnosed for diabetes when screened with HbA1c. Thus, assessment of these variants should be considered for incorporation into precision medicine approaches for diabetes diagnosis.

Background There are no available lifetime risk estimates of lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD). Methods and Results Using data from 6 US community-based cohorts and the vital statistics, we estimated the prevalence and incidence of PAD, defined as an ankle-brachial index

BackgroundAbnormal thyroid hormone levels (high or low) and autoimmunity from autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD) may increase dementia risk.MethodsWe examined the associations of thyroid dysfunction or possible AITD in 1990 - 1992 with dementia through 2017 in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Neurocognitive Study. Thyroid dysfunction (subclinical and overt hypo- or hyperthyroidism and euthyroidism) was categorized from serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) cut-points and AITD from anti-thyroid peroxidase (anti-TPO) antibody positivity. Dementia was identified primarily based on cognitive test performance, neuropsychological examinations and clinician review of suspected cases. Additional cases of dementia were ascertained through telephone interviews or relevant hospital and death certificate codes. Cox regression with multivariable adjustment was used for analysis.ResultsAfter exclusions for missing data, 12,481 participants were included in the analysis (mean index exam age 57 ± 5.7 (44% male, 25% black)), and 2,235 incident dementia cases were identified. AITD was not significantly associated with dementia. Subclinical hypothyroidism was associated with a lower risk of dementia (hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): 0.74 (0.60 - 0.92)), while overt hyperthyroidism was associated with a higher risk of dementia (HR (95% CI): 1.40 (1.02 - 1.92)) compared to euthyroid participants. Participants with serum FT4 concentrations above the 95th percentile were at an increased risk of dementia compared to those in the middle 90% of FT4 (HR (95% CI): 1.23 (1.02 - 1.48)).ConclusionsSubclinical hypothyroidism was associated with reduced risk of dementia, whereas overt hyperthyroidism, particularly very elevated FT4, was associated with increased risk of dementia. The association between subclinical hypothyroidism and reduced risk of dementia cannot be explained, but may have been an artifact due to change. By extrapolation, effective treatment of overt hyperthyroidism may modestly reduce dementia risk in older adults.